World Agricultural Supplyand Demand Estimates
United States Department of Agriculture
Office of the
Agricultural Marketing Service
Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service
Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 482 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
May 11, 2010
This report presents USDA’s initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects and U.S. pricesfor the 2010/11 season. Also presented are the first calendar-year 2011 projections of U.S. livestock, poultry, and dairyproducts. Projections reflect economic analysis, normal weather, trends, and judgment. Because spring planting is stillunderway in the Northern Hemisphere and remains several months away in the Southern Hemisphere, these projections arehighly tentative. National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecasts are used for U.S. winter wheat area, yield, andproduction. For other U.S. crops, the March 31 NASS
report is used for planted acreage. Methods usedto project harvested acreage and yield are noted on each table.
The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. wheat is for larger supplies as higher beginning stocks more thanoffset lower production. Beginning stocks are up 45 percent from 2009/10 and the highest in a decademore than offsetting a forecast 8 percent reduction in this year’s crop. Total production is projected at2,043 million bushels, down 173 million from last year. The survey-based forecast of winter wheatproduction is down 4 percent, but higher yields in Oklahoma, Texas, and a number of the soft red winterwheat states partly offset an 8 percent decline in expected winter wheat harvested area. Spring wheatproduction is also expected lower as a return to trend yields from last year’s record levels lowersproduction prospects. Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 585 million bushels, down16 percent from 2009/10, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and state yield trends for 1985-2008. U.S. wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected at 3,103 million bushels, up 4 percent from thecurrent year and the largest since 2000/01.Total U.S. wheat use for 2010/11 is projected up 3 percent with higher expected domestic use andexports. Food use is projected at 940 million bushels, up 20 million bushels from 2009/10 as flourextraction rates are expected to return to historical averages from their high levels during the past 2years. Feed and residual use is projected at 190 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from the 2009/10projection as the larger carryin, particularly for soft red winter wheat, raises feed use prospects. Exportsare projected at 900 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from the current year as large, early seasonsupplies and lower prices improve U.S. competitiveness. Despite higher expected use, U.S. endingstocks are projected at nearly 1 billion bushels and the highest since 1987/88. The season-average farmprice for all wheat is projected at $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel, compared with the 2009/10 projection of$4.90 per bushel.Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 2 percent higher with larger year-to-year beginningstocks more than offsetting lower expected production. Global 2010/11 wheat production is projected at672.2 million tons, down 1 percent from 2009/10 and the third largest production on record if realized.Larger projected production in EU-27, South America, and the Middle East is more than offset byexpected declines in FSU-12, North Africa, South Asia, China, Canada, and Australia.Global wheat trade is expected to rise slightly for 2010/11 with world exports up 2 percent from 2009/10at 129.2 million tons. Higher year-to-year exports for Argentina and EU-27 more than offset lower exportsfor Ukraine, Australia, and Canada. Export prospects for Russia are unchanged for 2010/11 as largerMiddle East crops and rising domestic wheat feeding limit export expansion for Russian wheat. Globalwheat consumption is projected up 2 percent for 2010/11 with larger global supplies supporting growth indemand. World wheat feeding is projected 3 percent higher with much of the year-to-year increase fromrising feeding in FSU-12. Global stocks are projected at 198.1 million tons, up 4.7 million from 2009/10;however, China stocks are projected up 8.3 million tons leaving stocks in the rest of the world down fromthe current year projection.
The 2010/11 outlook for U.S. feed grains is for larger supplies with higher beginningstocks and production; however, rising use is expected to limit the growth in ending stocks. Corn