taxpayers who support the increasingly insupportable and tenuous system. Thus,any deviation from an infinitesimally fine equilibrium threatens the veryfoundations of the economy.To maintain this equilibrium, certain replacement ratios are crucial. The ratio of active workers to pensioners, for instance, must not fall below 2 to 1. To maintainthis ratio, many European countries (and Japan) need to import millions of freshtax-paying (i.e., legal) immigrants per year.Either way, according to these sages, immigration is both inevitable and desirable.This squares nicely with politically correct - yet vague - liberal ideals and soeveryone in academe is content. A conventional wisdom was born.Yet, both ideas are wrong. These are fallacies because economics deals in non-deterministic and open systems. At least nine forces countermand the gloomy prognoses aforementioned and vitiate the alleged need for immigration:
I. Labour Replacement
Labour is constantly being replaced by technology and automation. Even very highskilled jobs are partially supplanted by artificial intelligence, expert systems, smartagents, software authoring applications, remotely manipulated devices, and thelike. The need for labour inputs is not constant. It decreases as technologicalsophistication and penetration increases. Technology also influences thecomposition of the work force and the profile of skills in demand.As productivity grows, fewer workers produce more. American agriculture is a fineexample. Less than 3 percent of the population are now engaged in agriculture inthe USA. Yet, they produce many times the output produced a century ago by 30 percent of the population. Per capita the rise in productivity is even moreimpressive.
II. Chaotic Behaviour
All the Malthusian and Lumping models assume that pension and health benefitsadhere to some linear function with a few well-known, actuarial, variables. This isnot so. The actual benefits payable are very sensitive to the assumptions andthreshold conditions incorporated in the predictive mathematical models used.Even a tiny change in one of the assumptions can yield a huge difference in thequantitative forecasts.
III. Incentive Structure
The doomsayers often assume a static and entropic social and economicenvironment. That is rarely true, if ever. Governments invariably influence