Rohit Talwar, Fast Future, February 2008 – DRAFT – 1

LOBAL

RENDS

Political Trends – Global

Title Description

Diminishing U.S influenceinternationallyA CIA/NIC report "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project,"suggests American global dominance could end by 2020.The weakening of the dollar is threatening to erode the influence of the United States in global financial markets.At the same time, reaction to US foreign policy, the rise of China and India as political influences in thedeveloping world and the emergence of strengthening of alliances in Asia, Africa and Latin America are allreducing the US influence on governments globally.A 2007 BBC World Service poll of 26,000 people in 25 countries (mostly non-Arab), just 29 percent now feel theUnited States exerts a mainly positive influence on the world. That compares with 36 percent who felt that way ayear ago and 40 percent two years ago. When asked about the US military presence in the Middle East, anaverage of 68 percent of respondents across the 25 countries answered that it provokes more conflict than itprevents.2.

Emergence of India and Chinaas global powers and leaders of the developing worldChina could become the world’s largest economy in GDP terms as early as 2030 and by 2050 China is expected tobe the largest and India the third largest global economies – with the USA in second place. At the same time, thedeveloping nation groupings such as the G77 are looking to China and India to lead their interests in globalnegotiations at the UN, World Bank and WTO.3.

Rising political and economicinfluence of a resurgent RussiaRussia’s influence on the international stage is increasing due to its large oil and gas holdings which have helpedlift its foreign currency reserves to $464bn – giving it the third largest holdings in the world behind China andJapan. The country is expected to be a top ten economy in GDP terms for the foreseeable future. Personalwealth is also on the rise - Russia had 53 billionaires in 2007, up from 7 in 2002. The number of millionaires alsogrew – from 80,000 in 2002 to 119,000 in 2006.