THE LOOMING

THREAT OF
GLOBAL
COOLING

Geological
Evidence
for Prolonged
Cooling Ahead
and its Impacts

Don J.
Easterbrook
Western Washington
University
 THE PAST IS THE KEY
TO THE FUTURE

 Tounderstand present-day climate changes,

we need to know how climate has behaved in
the past.

 Inorder to predict where we are heading, we

need to know where we’ve been.
 Has climate always been constant before
elevated atmospheric CO2?

 “Our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift

remotely similar to this. Today’s climate pattern has existed
throughout the entire history of human civilization.” (Gore, 2006)

 “Temperature has spiked within the past few years unlike any
previous temperature spike in history “ (Mote, 2007)
 “Current warming is 10 times greater than ever before seen in the
geologic record” (Newsweek, August 13, 2007)
Natural global warming much more intense than modern warming has
occurred many times in the geologic past without CO2 change
 Late Pleistocene abrupt climate changes
 ~15,000 yrs ago, a sudden (only a few years), intense climatic warming (~12°
C; ~21° F) caused dramatic melting of huge Ice Age ice sheets.
 A few centuries later, temperatures again plummeted (~11°; ~20° F) and
glaciers advanced.
 ~14,000 years ago, global temperatures rose rapidly (~4.5°C; ~8° F) and
glaciers receded.
 ~13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged (~8°C; ~14° F) and glaciers
advanced.
 ~13,200 years ago, global temperatures increased rapidly (~5°C; ~9° F) and
glaciers receded
 12,700 yrs ago global temperatures plunged sharply (~8°C; ~14° F) and a
1000 year period of glacial readvance, the Younger Dryas, began
 11,500 yrs ago, global temperatures rose sharply (~12° C; ~21° F), marking
the end of the Younger Dryas cold period
 Examples of past abrupt global climate changes before CO2 began to rise in
1945

 Sudden warming 15,000 yrs ago at end of the Ice Age

 Dansgard-Oerscher events—Rapid warming in decades
 13 Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred between 11,600 and 45,000
years ago
 Younger Dryas -- Sudden warming 11,500 years ago -- 5°C over 30-40
years and ~8°C over 40 years.
 Medieval Warm Period 900-1300 AD
 Little Ice Age – Sudden cooling 400 years ago
 Historic fluctuations
Abrupt Younger Dryas climate change
Nine ice sheet advances and retreats
in 1500 years
Sudden cooling and warming,
Greenland ice core
Warm/cool periods past 5000 years
25 yr warm/cool cycles from 18 O isotopes in
the Greenland ice core
Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age

 Both Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have long
been well documented with strong geologic evidence.
Georef lists 485 papers on the Medieval Warm period and
1413 on the Little Ice Age for a total of 1900 published
papers.
 When Mann/Briffa contended neither had happened and
climate had not changed in 1000 years, geologists didn’t
take them seriously and thought either (1) the trees they
used were not climate sensitive, or (2) they had used
inappropriate data.
Mann “hockey stick” vs. reality
A group of scientists in the UK and US

1. Constructed a climate history that

suppressed the Medieval Warm Period or
the Little Ice Age, a major argument of
CO2 advocates.

2. Doctored climate data to show increase

global warming and suppress global
cooling.

3. Hid or deleted data that didn’t support

their beliefs.

4. Took over journal editorial boards to

suppress opposing views.

5..Suppressed the research of scientists

who didn’t agree with them

6. Reviewed their own publications and

claimed only “peer reviewed” papers were
valid
Maunder Minimum
Global cooling occurs during times of few
sunspots and low solar irradiance
Correlation of SOI and solar activity
Two periods of
global warming
and two periods
of global cooling
have occurred
in the past
century
Correlationofglacial

fluctuations, global

temperature, andPacific

seasurfacetemperature
 ThePacificDecadal Oscillation(PDO)

ThePacificOceanhastwomodes—awarmmodeand

acool mode—andregularlyswitchesbackandforth

betweenthemona25-30yearcycle.

ThePDOhasstrongcorrelationswithglobal climate

—whenthePDOiswarm,climateiswarm;whenthe

PDOiscool, climateiscool.
 GLACIERFLUCTUATIONS

CLIMATECHANGES

PDO-AMOMODECHANGES

WHATDRIVESPDO-AMOMODES?
PDO COLD
 Sea surface temperatures
1997 2001

1999 2007
March,
2009

May7,

2010
Past and predicted PDO
Computer models are the
only basis for claiming
CO2 is causing global
warming. IPCC models
predicted 1ºF warming
from 2000 to 2010.

However, no warming
beyond the 1998 level so
the models have been
proven wrong.
It’sall

about

money

and

power
 Impacts of global cooling
 Global cooling is far more harmful to humans than global
warming because:
 1.Twice as many people are killed by extreme cold than by
extreme heat.
 2. Decrease in global food production—hardest hit will be
third-world countries where millions are now near starvation
levels.
 3. Increase in per capita energy demands.
 4. Decreased ability to cope with the population explosion
(>50% increase in next 40 years).
 Conclusions
 Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and cooling episodes much
more intense than recent warming/cooling occurred during the late
Pleistocene, none of which could have been caused by changes in
atmospheric CO2. .
 Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of
alternate warming and cooling with a 25-30 year period for the past
500 years.

 Strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier advance

and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent
pattern into the future.
 Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more
damaging than global warming would have been.
Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of thought. It
paralyses the intelligence. Conclusions based upon
preconceived ideas are valueless. It is only the open mind
that really thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949
“Two things are infinite: the
universe and human stupidity;
and I’m not sure about the
universe.” Albert Einstein.