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IKLING

IKLING

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Published by yasmin_putri

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Published by: yasmin_putri on May 21, 2010
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01/17/2013

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I
n about 2200
bce
a shit in the Medi-terranean westerly winds and a reduc-tion in the Indian monsoon roduced300 years o lower rainall and coldertemeratures that hit agriculture rom theAegean Sea to the Indus River. This changein climate brought down Egyt’s yramid- building Old Kingdom and Sargon theGreat’s emire in Mesootamia.
1
Ater only a ew decades o lower rainall, cities lin-ing the northern reaches o the Euhrates,the breadbasket or the Akkadians, weredeserted. At the city o Tell Leilan on thenorthern Euhrates, a monument was haltedhal-built.
2
With the city abandoned, a thicklayer o wind-blown dirt covered the ruins.Even intensively irrigated southern Meso-otamia, with its sohisticated bureaucracy and elaborate rationing, could not react astenough to the new conditions. Without theshiments o rained grain rom the north,and aced with arched irrigation ditchesand migrants rom the devastated northerncities, the emire collased.
3
Societies have always deended on theclimate but are only now coming to griswith the act that the climate deends ontheir actions. The stee increase in green-house gases since the Industrial Revolutionhas transormed the relationshi betweeneole and the environment. In otherwords, not only does climate aect develo-ment but develoment aects the climate.Let unmanaged, climate change willreverse develoment rogress and comro-mise the well-being o current and uturegenerations. It is certain that the earth willget warmer on average, at unrecedentedseed. Imacts will be elt everywhere, butmuch o the damage will be in develoingcountries. Millions o eole rom Bangla-desh to Florida will suer as the sea levelrises, inundating settlements and contami-nating reshwater.
4
Greater rainall variabil-ity and more severe droughts in semiaridArica will hinder eorts to enhance oodsecurity and combat malnourishment.
5
Thehastening disaearance o the Himalayanand Andean glaciers—which regulate riverow, generate hydroower, and suly cleanwater or over a billion o eole on armsand in cities—will threaten rural liveli-hoods and major ood markets (ma 1.1).
6
That is why decisive, immediate actionis needed. Even though the debate aboutthe costs and benefts o climate changemitigation continues, the case is very strongor immediate action to avoid unmanage-able increases in temerature. The unac-cetability o irreversible and otentially catastrohic imacts and the uncertainty about how, and how soon, they could occur
Understanding the Links betweenClimate Change and Development
CHApTER
1
Key messages
Development goals are threatened by climate change, with the heaviest impacts on poorcountries and poor people. Climate change cannot be controlled unless growth in both rich andpoor countries becomes less greenhouse-gas-intensive. We must act now: country develop-ment decisions lock the world into a particular carbon intensity and determine uture warming.Business-as-usual could lead to temperature increases o 5°C or more this century. And wemust act together: postponing mitigation in developing countries could double mitigation costs,and that could well happen unless substantial fnancing is mobilized. But i we act now and acttogether, the incremental costs o keeping warming around 2°C are modest and can be justifedgiven the likely dangers o greater climate change.
 
38
 
WORLD DEVELOpMENT REpORT 2010
cutting their own emissions by reshaingtheir built and economic environments.They also need to romote and fnance thetransition to low-carbon growth in develo-ing countries. Better alication o knownractices and undamental transorma-tions—in natural resource management,energy rovision, urbanization, social saetnets, international fnancial transers, tech-nological innovation, and governance, bothinternational and national—are needed tomeet the challenge.Increasing eole’s oortunities andmaterial well-being without underminingthe sustainability o develoment is stillthe main challenge or large swaths o theworld, as a severe fnancial and economiccrisis wreaks havoc across the globe. Stabi-lizing the fnancial markets and rotectingthe real economy, labor markets, and vul-nerable grous are the immediate riority.But the world must exloit this moment o oortunity or international cooerationcomel bold actions. The strong inertia inthe climate system, in the built environ-ment, and in the behavior o individualsand institutions requires that this action beurgent and immediate.Over the ast two centuries the directbenefts o carbon-intensive develomenthave been concentrated largely in today’shigh-income countries. The inequity inthe global distribution o ast and currentemissions, and in current and uture dam-ages, is stark (fgure 1.1; see also ocus A fg-ure FA.6 and the overview). But i countriesare willing to act, the economic incentivesor a global deal exist.The window o oortunity to choosethe right olicies to deal with climatechange and romote develoment is clos-ing. The urther countries go along currentemissions trajectories, the harder it will beto reverse course and alter inrastructures,economies, and liestyles. High-incomecountries must ace head-on the task o 




120 million60 million450 million60 million400 million200 million
INDUS GANGES BRAHMAPUTRAGANGES- BRAHMAPUTRADELTAYANGTZE MEKONG HWANG HE SALWEEN IRRAWADDY 
35 million150 million20 million
0–1001001–2000101–250>2000251–500No data501–1000River basinsRiversGlaciers
Population density (persons/sq. km)

 
Map 1.1 More than a billion people depend on water from diminishing Himalayan glaciers
Sources 
: Center or International Earth Science Inormation Network, http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/global.jsp (accessedMay 15, 2009); Armstrong and others 2005; ESRI 2002; WDR team.
Note 
: The glaciers o the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau regulate the supply o water throughout the year in major river basinssupporting large agricultural and urban populations, with meltwater providing between 3 and 45 percent o river ow in the Gan-ges and Indus, respectively. Reduced storage as ice and snowpack will result in larger ows and ooding during rainy monthsand water shortages during warmer, drier months when water is most needed or agriculture. Glacier locations shown in the maponly include glaciers larger than 1.5 sq. km in area. Numbers indicate how many people live in each river basin.

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