History of the global warming scare, Chapter 2, 1985-1990

Cha-am Jamal, 2010

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1985, GLOBAL WARMING COULD CAUSE FUTURE PROBLEMS, Roger Barry, Univ of
Colorado data center for glaciology. Atmospheric CO2 will double by the end of the century due to
burning fossil fuels. CO2 induced warming will be evident in the 1990s particularly in the melting of
glaciers and polar ice caps. Glacial melting in the last century is explained primarily by global
warming. There is a possibility of a seasonally open Arctic (after the summer melt) in the next century
brought about by a doubling of atmospheric CO2 but it is unlikely because Arctic ice "is more stable
than we thought". The future is pretty scary all the same.

1985, WILL MOTHER NATURE'S SCREEN SAVE OUR CLIMATE? CO2 induced global
warming is self correcting because warming increases cloud formation and clouds reflect sunlight back
into space. Richard Somerville, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UC San Diego.

1985, SAGAN WARNS, STOP GREENHOUSE EFFECT NOW, Carl Sagan testimony in Senate
hearing. Global warming will flood coastal cities and turn Midwest farmlands into a dust bowl. The
greenhouse effect makes life possible but too much or too little will kill it off.Use of fossil fuels is
pushing earth into too much. The answer is to reduce fossil fuel consumption by switching to nuclear
and solar. If we do nothing we condemn our children and grandchildren to the effects of global
warming. The greenhouse effect of fossil fuels is the most dangerous threat to mankind we have ever
faced.

1985, RISING SEA LEVEL, The Polar Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences says
that the sea level will rise 4-6 cm by 2000 and 12-27 cm by 2030 because global warming from the
greenhouse effect will warm the oceans and melt glaciers and polar ice caps including Greenland.

1986, SCIENTISTS PREDICT CATASTROPHE IN GROWING GLOBAL HEAT WAVE,

Scientists at Senate subcommittee hearing. The greenhouse effect will cause th earth to be warmer in
he next decade than at any other time in the last 100,000 years and cause shoreline erosion, droughts,
and other catastrophic changes just as the depletion of the ozone layer is doing.

1986, WARMING PANIC PREMATURE, presentation by NASA scientists to a Senate committee.

The warnings of "greenhouse effect" catastrophe by 2030 are overblown because the computer models
used are not good enough to make those predictions. Northern hemisphere temperatures have
declined in the last 50 years (since 1935). The National Research Council's report of 1983 shows two
warm years at the end of the record but that is not enough imply a warming trend. The Diaz and
Quayle 1981 article in Monthly Weather Review shows a cooling trend from 1949 to 1979. The northern
hemisphere temperature history detailed in the February 1986 issue of the Journal of Climate and
Applied Meteorology does not show a warming trend. Although global warming is being promoted as
"inescapable" and "undeniable" the caveat in the National Research Council's 1983 paper says "we do
not believe the overall pattern yet confirms temperature changes attributable to CO2". The DOE's 1985
report also makes similar caveats such as "the findings constitute insufficient evidence that the climate
models are correctly projecting the effects of CO2 on climate". Northern hemisphere ocean
temperatures have not gone up since WW2. Since rising CO2 is not causing warming of the northern
hemisphere there must be other more potent variables at work that are not in the model. An increase
of 4% to 7% the formation of certain types of clouds could offset the heat effect of doubling CO2
(Bretherton and Coakley 1985). Yet, cirrus clouds are an unknown and not in the computer models.
Most of the computer models contain major limitations in oceanic heat transfer and changes in
regional rainfall. The southern hemisphere is behaving differently and appears to be warming so
perhaps the same will occur in the north eventually.

1988, GLOBAL WARMING HAS BEGUN, EXPERTS TELL SENATE: James Hansen of NASA
tells the US Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee that "the earth has been warmer in the
first five months of this year than in any comparable period since measurements began 130 years ago"
and therefore that the effects of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are now palpable. The
nightmare has arrived, "the greenhouse effect is here" with the NYT reporting that "humans, by
burning fossil fuels , have altered the global climate in a manner that will affect life on earth for
centuries to come". Southeast and Midwest states in the USA will experience "frequent episodes of
very high temperatures and drought in the next decade and beyond".

1988, CLIMATE CHANGE ALREADY HAPPENING, A buildup of carbon dioxide from the
burning of fossil fuels emitted by human activities into is causing the earth's surface to warm by
trapping infrared radiation from the sun and turning the entire earth into a kind of greenhouse - just
as mathematical models had predicted. Sometime between 2025 to 2050 the earth will be 3F to 9F
warmer with higher latitudes 20F warmer. mathematical models had predicted. Melting glaciers and
polar ice and thermal expansion of the oceans will cause the sea level to rise by one to four feet by
2050.

1988, WARMEST YEAR EXPECTED, The hottest years on record occurred in the 1980s with the
first 5 months of this year very hot. Just as the models had predicted, the rise in temperature is greater
in high latitudes than in low, is greater over continents than oceans, and there is cooling in the upper
atmosphere as the lower atmosphere warms up. Clearly, global warming by greenhouse gas emissions
as predicted by these computer models has begun. "We can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a
cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.'' The snow is
melting earlier each year and the rain belt is moving northwards.

1988, 35-NATION CONFERENCE ADDRESSES GLOBAL WARMING, A global warming

meeting in Geneva will examine the scientific evidence. "The effort could lead to an international treaty
to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere that trap heat from the
earth in a ''greenhouse effect'' and to "justify actions by governments to limit and cope with climate
change" . To mitigate global warming we must reduce the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon
dioxide and also agree to further reductions in chlorofluorocarbons beyond the 50% reduction
mandated in the Montreal Protocol. The global warming problem is real because ''We know that
greenhouse gases are accumulating and in principle, they should lead to a global warming".

1989, DEFORESTATION SPEEDS UP GLOBAL WARMING, Destruction of forests will speed

up global warming because the drying forests will release carbon dioxide. We need a sharp reduction
in the use of fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, and end to deforestation, and a program of
reforestation. The re-development of nuclear power could also slow global warming. The world must
immediately ratify a treaty to reduce the use of chlorofluorocarbons because they destroy ozone and
contribute to global warming.
1989, GLOBAL WARMING STIRS STORM, "Despite Hansen's assertions, there is widespread
scientific disagreement over global warming trends. Some experts say there is no evidence that the
climate has experienced any significant change over the past several decades."

1989, FORECAST DISSENT ON GLOBAL WARMING, Skeptics are challenging dire greenhouse
views" (NYT). Skeptics contend that forecasts of global warming are flawed and overstated and that
the future might even hold no significant warming at all and that if the warming is modest, as they
believe likely, it could bring benefits like longer growing seasons in temperate zones, more rain in dry
areas and an enrichment of crops and plant life". "It would be a mistake to take drastic and costly steps
to limit emissions of carbon dioxide". Much of the dissenters' criticism is aimed at computerized
mathematical models of the world's climate on which forecasts of global warming are largely based.
The critics also cite data on past climatic trends, and they say the theory of greenhouse warming has
not yet been fully explored. "''We have an incomplete theory with a lot of bad science being done". "
Current forecasts of global warming ''are so inaccurate and fraught with uncertainty as to be useless to
policy-makers,'' Richard S. Lindze.

1989, RACE TO ASSESS GLOBAL WARMING, Scientists are using powerful computers and
advanced mathematical models to simulate the world's climate. The computer models predict that the
greenhouse effect will make the earth warmer. The resulting climate change will have "important
consequences for life on earth". One problem is that the models don't agree on what areas will suffer
drought and where there will be increased precipitation. The dilemma faced by policymakers is that
they don't have information that is precise enough to make policy but if they wait for more precise
information it may be too late to take effective action.

Jamal’s notes

1. The refrain that “global warming is already happening” got started in 1988.
2. Note that all scary forecasts are derived from computer models and that these models
do not have a consensus forecast.
3. The catch-22 that “we don’t have all the answers but you can’t afford to wait that
long” was invented during this period.
4. Scientists who disagreed were still getting press coverage. This ended soon after this
period.