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P. 1
Scenario

Scenario

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Published by RV Pundit
Political scenario at 21 sept 2007 for presendential election to be held later this year
Political scenario at 21 sept 2007 for presendential election to be held later this year

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Published by: RV Pundit on Sep 21, 2007
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01/01/2013

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CENTRAL PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Ndia 47482 65.10% 23% 58402.86 75.10%Kabete 83307 61.40% 23% 102467.61 71.40%Kiambaa 90403 54.30% 23% 111195.69 64.30%Githunguri 72075 61.60% 23% 88652.25 71.60%Juja 111889 46.10% 23% 137623.47 56.10%Gatundu North 45791 59.00% 23% 56322.93 69.00%Gatundu South 56767 55.30% 23% 69823.41 65.30%Gatanga 70871 59.60% 23% 87171.33 69.60%Kandara 69553 63.20% 23% 85550.19 73.20%Maragwa 55016 61.60% 23% 67669.68 71.60%Kigumo 55749 66.90% 23% 68571.27 76.90%Kiharu 91498 59.70% 23% 112542.54 69.70%Mathioya 48347 61.60% 23% 59466.81 71.60%Limuru 55348 57.20% 23% 68078.04 67.20%Kerugoya/Kutus 58316 65.20% 23% 71728.68 75.20%Lari 50587 63.30% 23% 62222.01 73.30%Gichugu 64172 67.50% 23% 78931.56 77.50%Mwea 60434 65.40% 23% 74333.82 75.40%Nyeri Town 57377 59.30% 23% 70573.71 69.30%Mukurweini 46991 67.70% 23% 57798.93 77.70%Othaya 51801 70.70% 23% 63715.23 80.70%Mathira 85394 66.70% 23% 105034.62 76.70%Kieni 70327 65.50% 23% 86502.21 75.50%Tetu 44359 69.20% 23% 54561.57 79.20%Ndaragwa 38823 66.00% 23% 47752.29 76.00%Ol kalou 71709 62.40% 23% 88202.07 72.40%Kipipiri 37164 63.60% 23% 45711.72 73.60%Kinangop 63963 64.10% 23% 78674.49 74.10%Kangema 41809 63.60% 23% 51425.07 73.60%Aggregate
17973222210706.06
73.00%
COAST PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Kinango 49206 40.50% 18% 58063 40.50%Mwatate 31589 42.80% 18% 37275 47.80%Changamwe 87532 30.60% 18% 103288 35.60%Kisauni 93510 30.30% 18% 110342 35.30%Likoni 48304 28.00% 18% 56999 33.00%Mvita 66289 26.70% 18% 78221 31.70%Matuga 43234 41.30% 18% 51016 46.30%Voi 34417 40.00% 18% 40612 45.00%Bahari 79268 27.70% 18% 93536 32.70%Kaloleni 70605 28.70% 18% 83314 33.70%Lamu West 29068 47.50% 18% 34300 52.50%Msambweni 66976 37.00% 18% 79032 42.00%Taveta 21947 48.70% 18% 25897 53.70%Ganze 36661 41.10% 18% 43260 46.10%Lamu East 11649 44.90% 18% 13746 49.90%Bura 21263 31.40% 18% 25090 36.40%Galoleni 20320 45.00% 18% 23978 50.00%
 
Garsen 28526 42.70% 18% 33661 47.70%Magarini 37227 36.50% 18% 43928 41.50%Malindi 63816 30.70% 18% 75303 35.70%Wundanyi 27725 41.10% 18% 32716 41.86%Aggregate 969132 1143577 42%
EASTERN PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Kathiani 76510 48.40% 21% 92577.10 48.40%Kibwezi 69572 49.80% 21% 84182.12 49.80%Makueni 82422 52.50% 21% 100554.84 52.50%Kaiti 45400 54.30% 21% 55388.00 54.30%Kilome 36066 53.30% 21% 44000.52 53.30%Mbooni 64691 52.80% 21% 78923.02 52.80%Mwala 67216 52.50% 21% 82003.52 52.50%Machakos Town 82985 49.40% 21% 102071.55 49.40%Laisamis 15583 35.20% 14% 17764.62 35.20%Gachoka 45172 55.50% 20% 54206.40 55.50%Manyatta 68428 55.00% 20% 82113.60 55.00%Tharaka 40258 58.40% 21% 48712.18 58.40%Nithi 103944 59.20% 21% 125772.24 59.20%South Imenti 81712 61.80% 21% 98871.52 61.80%Kangundo 90310 49.30% 21% 109275.10 49.30%Central Imenti 68463 64.90% 21% 82840.23 64.90%North Imenti 102518 56.70% 21% 124046.78 56.70%Tigania East 47686 61.00% 21% 57700.06 61.00%Tigania West 44934 61.90% 21% 54370.14 61.90%Ntonyiri 52887 60.50% 21% 63993.27 60.50%Igembe 68961 55.60% 21% 83442.81 55.60%Runyenjes 67135 58.30% 20% 80562.00 58.30%Isiolo North 31030 38.70% 15% 35684.50 38.70%Saku 15893 50.70% 14% 18118.02 50.70%North Horr 17618 41.30% 14% 20084.52 41.30%Siakago 32085 52.00% 21% 38822.85 52.00%Mwingi North 62093 57.00% 20% 74511.60 57.00%Moyale 27886 38.10% 14% 31790.04 38.10%Mwingi South 59439 55.30% 20% 71326.80 55.30%Kitui West 58316 50.70% 21% 70562.36 50.70%Kitui Central 63844 44.30% 21% 77251.24 44.30%Mutito 37819 49.00% 21% 45760.99 49.00%Kitui South 43678 42.30% 21% 52850.38 42.30%Masinga 42265 54.70% 21% 51140.65 54.70%Yatta 53069 51.30% 21% 64213.49 51.30%Isiolo South 11631 46.40% 18% 13724.58 46.40%20% 2389213.64 52.17%
NAIROBI PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Langata 119261 40.00% 26% 150269 47.00%Kasarani 128402 43.30% 26% 161787 50.30%Dagoreti 89432 43.20% 26% 112684 50.20%
 
Starehe 123123 38.30% 26% 155135 45.30%Kamukunji 90582 37.90% 26% 114133 44.90%Makadara 111626 38.70% 26% 140649 45.70%Embakasi 164235 41.40% 26% 206936 48.40%Westlands 135055 33.80% 26% 170169 40.80%Aggregate 961716 39.58% 26%
1211762
46.58%
NEP PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Fafi 14122 19.40% 23% 17370 19.400%Mandera East 31122 29.70% 23% 38280 29.700%Mandera West 21040 24.30% 23% 25879 24.300%Dujis 31044 26.90% 23% 38184 26.900%Wajir South 24890 15.80% 23% 30615 15.800%Wajir East 23718 22.80% 23% 29173 22.800%Wajir West 26273 20.70% 23% 32316 20.700%Ijara 10380 35.30% 23% 12767 35.300%Lagdera 21057 18.20% 23% 25900 18.200%Mandera Central 23490 30.10% 23% 28893 30.100%Wajir North 10684 29.30% 23% 13141 29.300%237820 292518 24.773%
NYANZA PROVReg Votes 05% Turn Out(05)Proj Rate(07)Est Reg VotesExp Turn Out
Mbita 31172 71.60% 30% 40524 83.600%Bobasi 64861 40.90% 30% 84319 55.900%Gwassi 28494 65.10% 30% 37042 80.100%Kuria 49555 52.10% 20% 59466 57.100%Nyatike 42245 89.10% 20% 50694 96.100%Bomachoge 57997 39.50% 20% 69596 44.500%Rongo 58942 77.50% 28% 75446 89.500%Bonchari 34278 45.10% 20% 41134 50.100%Nyaribari Masaba 46239 41.20% 20% 55487 46.200%Nyaribari Chache 51460 39.00% 20% 61752 44.000%Kitutu Chache 67900 42.00% 20% 81480 47.000%Kitutu Masaba 65854 41.50% 20% 79025 46.500%West Mugirango 55295 43.20% 20% 66354 48.200%South Mugirango 47162 39.70% 20% 56594 44.700%Rarieda 43718 58.10% 30% 56833 73.100%Uriri 34187 80.80% 30% 44443 95.800%Migori 52589 74.30% 30% 68366 89.300%Ugenya 70162 54.10% 30% 91211 69.100%Bondo 47928 59.30% 30% 62306 74.300%Kisumu Town East 44248 53.50% 30% 57522 68.500%Kisumu Town West 71477 45.70% 30% 92920 60.700%Kisumu Rural 43012 58.30% 30% 55916 73.300%Nyando 44712 68.00% 30% 58126 83.000%Gem 51920 52.70% 30% 67496 67.700%Nyakach 45704 67.30% 30% 59415 82.300%Kasipul Kabondo 64355 72.30% 30% 83662 87.300%Karachuonyo 52606 78.40% 30% 68388 93.400%

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