NOTES FOR 2020 R.

Rogers
26 May 2010

MEETING WITH FAIRFAX SCHOOLS PLANNING OFFICIALS

Key Points
• Reston schools are currently slightly below capacity.
However, FCPS projections are that by 2015-16 many
Reston area schools--particularly high schools- will
be beyond capacity
• This estimate does not include approved or planned
developments such as Fairways and Spectrum.
• School projections reach out about 6-10 years.
Estimating the impact of new development is subject to
many variables.
• Tysons re-development will mean one new elementary
school in the intermediate term and an additional
middle school or high school some years out.
• Complicating the Reston situation will be the absence
of possible new school sites outside North Town Center
or Baron Cameron park.
• FCPS is very conscious of the need to adapt to a more
urban community and is thinking about how schools may
fit into this context.

On 10 May Dave Edwards, Tammi Petrine and Dick Rogers

met with officials in from the Fairfax Schools Office of
Facilities Planning Services: The FCPS officers attending
were:
Denise James Director
Larry Bizette Demographer
Mary Ann Tsai Planning Officer
Ajay Rowat Coordinator
Useful but dated handouts were provided on the Reston
situation, which are available from the 2020 participants

Current Conditions and Intermediate Outlook

FCPS planning officer in general look out 6-10 years
to make projections based on demographics, existing school
populations, changing social and ethnic variables, the
economy and actual new construction.
Currently the school system is experiencing
considerable unanticipated growth. In the past four years
a total of 8,500 students were added. Much of this growth
came in the past two years because of the economic downturn
and despite slower construction. Growth also reflects
various social changes—the economic situation, changing
ethnic and family structure and an increase in students
from existing neighborhoods.
Reston situation: In general, even without
urbanization of the core transit station areas and the
possible redevelopment of the village centers, FCPS expects
continued student growth in the Reston area, particularly
at the high school level.
Data provided show that the Reston area system is
currently operating (with some exceptions like Hunter
Woods) slightly below capacity. However, the FCPS
projections show that by 2015-16 half the elementary
schools will be above capacity (Aldrin and Sunrise Valley
in particular), and that there will be considerable over
crowding at the middle schools and particularly at the high
schools serving the Reston area (South Lakes, Langley and
Herndon). Significantly, these projections do not include
projects that have been approved but not yet built (i.e.
Spectrum and Lake Anne) or not yet approved (i.e.
Fairways).
At the current time, the only school facility
expansion in process in the Reston area involves Lake Anne,
which will be completed in 2011-2012.
Estimative methodology: FCPS has a well developed
methodology for estimating school populations 6-10 years
out. In part it is based on new births, existing school
populations and estimated influx and outgo of students.
Regarding new developments, FCPS uses a “yield”
methodology. Based on county-wide data, it estimates how
many students will come from different type of housing.
The yield rate for high rise development, for example, is
7.8% per 1,000 units. The yield rate increases for low
rise apartments, townhouses and single family houses.
Publicly assisted housing provides a somewhat higher yield
than similar private housing.
Examples provided by FCPS included an estimate of
students coming from the 1440 unit approved but not built
Spectrum high rise development (126) and the 940 unit
Fairways proposal (167). The latter has a higher “yield”
because it includes some single family townhouses and low
rise style apartments as well as the high rise component.
(Comment: One issue is the relevance of these yield
figures to Reston. These yields are based on county wide
data and experience. County officers believe the yield
figures are generally realistic. However, they note that a
new development initially yields somewhat less than
estimated but over time will match the yield figure.)
Sometimes projections can be thrown off by changes in
development plans and housing types. For example,
originally the McNair Farms area (west of Herndon–Monroe)
was projected to be apartments and commercial. However, the
developer changed his concept to include more town homes.
This increased the student “yield” and resulted in the new
McNair elementary school being considerably overcapacity
(construction of a new school in the general area has
alleviated this situation)
The only long-term Fairfax County population
estimation is done in the 30 year projections done by the
water and sewer dept. of Public Works.
Private vs public: FCPS does not have precise data on
how many children go to alternative schooling (religious,
private, home schooled etc). They estimate that 9 out of
10 children in FC go to public school. They have noted that
when a new facility opens, there is a tendency for people
using alterative educational facilities to return to the
public system. They also see a tendency for people using
alternative schools to turn to the public high schools for
older children. They attribute this to the high quality of
Fairfax high schools
Established neighborhoods: One point strongly
emphasized was that in looking at future school needs, we
should not ignore possible changes in the existing
established communities. In general, FCPS finds that as
areas get older, more young people with children move in.
In newer areas, in contrast, initially there may be fewer
school age children.

Tysons Experience
FCPS officials were very involved in the Tysons
development proposals. George Mason provided estimates of
the expected number of new households. When clearer
projections of new housing types began to emerge from the
planning process they were able to make better estimates.
As a result, the draft Tysons comprehensive plan calls for:
• one new elementary school in the intermediate term.
• An additional middle or high school (or capacity
enhancement) 20-40 years out.

Urban Schools
Partly as a result of Tysons and changes elsewhere in
Fairfax, FCPS is particularly conscious that new facilities
will have to fit into a more urban environment. The days
of 10-12 acre school sites are over in the more urbanized
areas. They are considering a variety of options:
• Co-locating elementary schools in a bigger municipal
building with library or social services.
• Putting schools, particularly elementary level
schools, as the lower floors of a commercial building.
• Putting schools in a building used for community or
recreational purposes after school hours.
The discussion centered on K–3 in one location and 4–6 in
another location. Outdoor space could be ground level or
fenced roof top. However, FCPS would prefer to locate such
schools adjacent to parkland, which could be used for
student recreation. (Comment: The North Town Center area
sounds like a perfect location for such a school.)
They believe security issues in such environments can
be dealt with by measures such as locked doors and limited
access.
FCPS still prefers junior and senior high schools on
campus like sites due to needs for large outdoor spaces for
sports. (Comment: Baron Cameron is only space still in the
possession of the County Board of Supervisors that could be
used for such a site.)

Future
FCPS officers think that potential school sites for
addressing projected capacity deficits and growth should be
considered as part of the planning process in Reston,
particularly given the lack of available build able land in
Reston. In addition, consideration should be given to the
potential for capacity enhancements, potential boundary
change and/or program changes. Developing new urban schools
on sites with compatible land use (co-location), as noted
above, may also become a viable option.
To date, there is no firm information about the impact
of Transit Oriented Development on Fairfax schools as it is
so new. (Comment: Arlington planner Bob Brosnan, in
response to a question on 15 May, said that the experience
in Arlington with its TOD areas is that there has been
minimal impact on the schools. Most residents appear to be
singles, young married or older residents leaving private
homes. Although some renovation of older facilities has
been needed, no new school construction has been necessary.
But Brosnan said this could change as family patterns
change and the existing communities evolve.)
FCPS notes a continuing tendency on the part of the
county to approve development without considering the
impact on public facilities. In part to alleviate this,
they are proposing a school facility advisory body to
channel citizen input.

2020 Participants Comment

Assume the construction of 15,000 new high rise units
in Reston. Using the county methodology and a yield of
7.8% per 1,000 high rise units, this would yield 1,170 new
students. Other factors could increase this “yield”:
• The proportion of affordable and government supported
housing units.
• Follow through on Bob Simon’s Reston values: If new
construction is more consistent with the value of
providing accommodation for all types of families in
what ever life stage, more townhouse and garden style
apartments presumably would be included in the mix.
As noted above, FCPS officers see more students coming from
the established residential communities in Reston as
generational change occurs.