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IND Response Planning LLNL TR 410067

IND Response Planning LLNL TR 410067

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August 2009 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Key Response Planning 
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) would like to acknowledge the leadership and expertise of the Department of Homeland SecurityOffice of Health Affairs (DHS OHA) Assistant Secretary (Acting) and Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Jon Krohmer; the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary(Acting) and Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Til Jolly, Radiation and Nuclear Branch Chief, Capt Charles Blue, and Dr. Sara Klucking of DHS Scienceand Technology. These individuals made themselves available for assistance and direction on all aspects of the project discussed in this final report. The authors gratefully acknowledge the insights and support of the Modeling and Analysis Coordination Working Group, a technical working groupcollaborating on key aspects of nuclear effects modeling. Participation in this working group included:Altmire, Bryan; Homeland Security InstituteBlue, Charles; DHS Office of Health AffairsBos, Randy; Los Alamos National LaboratoryBrandt, Larry; Sandia National Laboratory - LivermoreBrunjes, Ben; Homeland Security InstituteBuddemeier, Brooke; Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryCasagrande, Rocco; Gryphon ScientificCurling, Carl; Institute for Defense AnalysisDavisson, M. Lee; Los Alamos National LaboratoryDillon, Michael; Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryDisraelly, Deena; Institute for Defense AnalysisDombroski, Matt; Lawrence Livermore National LaboratoryEdwards, Brian; Los Alamos National LaboratoryGoorley, Tim; Los Alamos National LaboratoryGorenz, Heather; Sandia National Laboratory - ABQJohnson, Mike; DHS Domestic Nuclear Detection OfficeKlennert, Lindsay; Sandia National Laboratory - ABQKlucking, Sara; DHS Science and TechnologyLaViolet, Lucas; Institute for Defense AnalysisMacKinney, John; DHS PolicyMcClellan, Gene; Applied Research AssociatesMcNally, Rich; Health and Human ServicesMcPherson, Tim; Los Alamos National LaboratoryMercier, John; Armed Forces Radiobiological Research InstituteMichelsen, Randy; Los Alamos National LaboratoryMillage, Kyle; Applied Research AssociatesOancea, Victor; DHHS/Science Application International CorporationReeves, Glen; Defense Threat Reduction AgencySchaeffer, Mike; DHHS/Science Application International CorporationSchick, Mike; Defense Threat Reduction Agency Taylor, Tammy; Office of Science and Technology Policy The authors gratefully acknowledge the critical review by Deena Disraelly, Terri Walsh, Gary Mansfield, Gayle Sugiyama, and John Nasstrom. Keycontributions to this work come from the work of Larry D. Brandt and Ann S. Yoshimura of Sandia National Laboratories on the importance of shelterand evacuation strategies following an urban nuclear detonation.Layout, artwork, and editing were performed by Kitty Madison, Pam Davis, Tim Finnigan, Jason Carpenter, and Karen Kline. Finally, the authorsgratefully acknowledge the considerable visualization assistance provided by Sabrina Fletcher, Kwei-Yu Chu, Thomas Tegge, Jennifer Rodriguez,Kathleen Fischer, and Bill Eme, as well as the assistance from summer student Kristen Jensen.
 This document was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United Statesgovernment nor Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, nor any of their employees makes any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumesany legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, orrepresents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by tradename, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the UnitedStates government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily stateor reflect those of the United States government or Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC, and shall not be used for advertising or productendorsement purposes.
Auspices Statement
 This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory underContract DE-AC52-07NA27344.D1309
iLawrence Livermore National Laboratory
August 2009 Key Response Planning 
Executive Summary
Despite hundreds of above-groundnuclear tests and data gathered fromHiroshima and Nagasaki, the effects of aground-level, low-yield nucleardetonation in a modern urbanenvironment are still the subject of considerable scientific debate. Extensivereview of nuclear weapon effects studiesand discussions with nuclear weaponeffects experts from various federalagencies, national laboratories, andtechnical organizations have identifiedkey issues and bounded some of theunknowns required to support responseplanning for a low-yield, ground-levelnuclear detonation in a modern U.S. city. This study, which is focused primarilyupon the hazards posed by radioactivefallout, used detailed fallout predictionsfrom the advanced suite of three-dimensional (3-D) meteorology andplume/fallout models developed atLawrence Livermore National Laboratory(LLNL), including extensive global
Key Response Planning Factors forthe Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism
geographical and real-timemeteorological databases to supportmodel calculations. This 3-D modelingsystem provides detailed simulations thataccount for complex meteorology andterrain effects. The results of initial modeling andanalysis were presented to federal, state,and local working groups to obtaincritical, broad-based review and feedback on strategy and messaging. This effortinvolved a diverse set of communities,including New York City, National CapitolRegions, Charlotte, Houston, Portland,and Los Angeles. The largest potential for reducingcasualties
during the post-detonationresponse phase comes from reducingexposure to fallout radiation. This can beaccomplished through early, adequatesheltering followed by informed, delayedevacuation.
The response challenges toa nuclear detonation must be solvedthrough multiple approaches of publiceducation, planning, and rapid responseactions. Because the successful responsewill require extensive coordination of alarge number of organizations,supplemented by appropriate responsesby local responders and the generalpopulation within the hazard zones,regional planning is essential to success. The remainder of this Executive Summaryprovides summary guidance for responseplanning in three areas:1.
Public Protection Strategy 
details theimportance of early, adequate shelterfollowed by informed evacuation.2.
Responder Priorities
identify how toprotect response personnel, performregional situational assessment, andsupport public safety.3.
Key Planning Considerations
refutecommon myths and provide importantinformation on planning how torespond in the aftermath of nuclearterrorism.
B. R. Buddemeier M. B. Dillon
Casualties are defined in this document as both injuries and fatalities.
 This report focuses primarily on protection from fallout. Other issues, including planning for actions that would reduce injuries/fatalities arising from the prompteffects of a nuclear explosion (e.g., “duck and cover” to reduce injuries from broken glass), are only briefly discussed.

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