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Martinez Memo

Martinez Memo

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Published by newsguy44

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Published by: newsguy44 on Jun 02, 2010
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06/02/2010

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MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIESFROM: NICOLE McCLESKEYRE: THE 2010 NEW MEXICO GENERAL ELECTION FOR GOVERNORDATE: JUNE 2, 2010 While encouraged by the strength of the Susana Martinez primary electionvictory, we recognize the challenges ahead in the general election. LieutenantGovernor Diane Denish is an entrenched incumbent with powerful allies and alarge war chest. But, this election presents a very solid opportunity for aRepublican candidate like Susana Martinez to emerge.
The Political Environment 
This is a very difficult political environment for Bill Richardson’s “good, loyalsoldier,” Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.# In a statewide survey of 500 likely general election voters conducted byPublic OpinionStrategies (POS) in late January 2010, 61% of voters believe the state hasgotten off on thewrong track.
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This includes two-thirds of Independent voters (66%) and even59% of soft Democratswho are dissatisfied with the direction the state is headed. # In a recently released Rasmussen survey conducted among 500 likely voters,57% of voters disapprove of the job Bill Richardson is doing.2# Voters are in the mood for change this election. From the January POSsurvey, just 33% of
 
voters say they want to generally continue the policies of GovernorRichardson, while 59% wantto significantly change course.
Encouraging Ballot Trends 
 Public surveys published last week demonstrate the power of a Susana Martinezchallenge to Diane Denish. In the SurveyUSA poll, Martinez holds a 49%-43%lead over Denish.3 In a best case scenario for Denish, Rasmussen Reports hasthe survey a dead-heat at 42% Martinez/43% Denish.A look at the SurveyUSA crosstabs offers a revealing look at what is going onbelow the surface: # At 40% of the Hispanic vote, Martinez is already closing in on the percentageof Hispanic votes aGOP candidate needs to win statewide. George W. Bush carried NewMexico in 2004 with 44%of the Hispanic vote. McCain faltered in 2008 earning only 30% of theHispanic vote. # Martinez is already in front among Independent voters, leading 50%-38%. # Showing cross-party appeal, Martinez takes nearly one quarter (23%) ofDemocrat votes.# Martinez posts a 48%-44% advantage in Bernalillo. Historically, if aRepublican candidateis able to compete in Bernalillo that bodes extremely well, particularly whenone considersMartinez’s base is in the southern part of the state. # While Martinez has a healthy advantage among men (53%-40%), the race istighter amongwomen (45%Martinez/46% Denish). The Martinez candidacy effectivelynegates any genderadvantage for Denish among women.In conclusion, Susana Martinez dramatically changes the landscape of thegeneral election contest -- she is an extremely effective messenger delivering a

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