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equity valuation - case study 2

equity valuation - case study 2

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Published by sunjai
equity valuation case study 2
equity valuation case study 2

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Published by: sunjai on Jun 05, 2008
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03/03/2013

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Clutch Auto Ltd.Company Background
Clutch Auto, established in 1971, is India's largest clutch manufacturer and exporter with over threedecades of undisputed leadership. Its production facility is located at Faridabad. The company enjoys over 60% market share in tractors and commercial vehicles (CVs). Its clientele includes Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Maruti Udyog, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, TAFE, Toyota, BEML, Escorts and State-runtransport undertakings. In CVs, it is a major supplier to Tata Motors with a 60% market share. It hasdominant market share of 80% in tractors and supplies to all manufacturers in India.CAL is growing both organically and inorganically. In FY05, it expanded clutch plate capacity by 122% to2 millions pieces and trebled clutch cover capacity to 1.5 millions pieces at capital expenditure (capex) of over Rs 5 crore. It acquired the clutch division of Pioneer Inc, US, in March 2006, which was renamedPioneer Clutch Inc.
Thrust on exports
CAL is targeting the US heavy-duty clutch market (estimated at $550 million) with its patented products.The acquisition of the clutch division of Pioneer Inc will strengthen its foothold in the US. Pioneer is aquasi manufacturing and distribution company in the US with a warehouse facility of over 55,000 squarefeet, access to 7 warehouses, 20 marketing networks, sales force of over 100 people, and most importantlya client base of 500 companies in the replacement market. Pioneer's established distribution would helpCAL acquire the formers' clients.The company has bagged a five-year order worth US$60 million from Fleet Pride, which should further aidits export growth. Fleet Pride's established network would also enable CAL tap the formers' clients. Weexpect export revenues to grow at a CAGR (FY06-08) of 78.8% to Rs 153.6 crore in FY08.
Product patents - a competitive advantage
CAL manufactures 500 different types of clutches including 16-patented products. It has 7 product patents,which have been approved but are awaiting registration. The company is confident of receiving theregistrations in the current year. Further, it also has another 14 products under patent filing. Out of the 21 products, patents for 12 (10 in the US) are pending for overseas market. The approval of patents wouldopen up a huge export market for the company.
Debt restructuring to boost net profit
The company is repaying its high-cost debt with funds raised by issuing preferential warrants worth Rs 49crore. It has also managed to raise funds at cheaper interest rates from the Technology Development Board(TDB) and a few banks, which would further ease finance cost pressure on net profit. Net profit margin(NPM) would improve from 8.5% in FY06 to 13.3% in FY08.
Concerns
Eaton is the leading player in the US clutch market with a whopping 98% market share in both theOEM and replacement markets. The success of CAL depends on how it can penetrate the USmarket. Export revenues will be a major trigger and the company's inability to earn the expectedrevenue growth is a major concern for our earning estimates.
The increasing competition from the unorganised sector in the domestic market could impact itsmarket share and revenue growth.
Steel is the major raw material for clutch manufacturing and any rise in steel prices can affectEBITDA margins.
 
Auto Ancillaries Sector in India
The fortunes of the auto ancillary sector are closely linked to those of the auto sector. Demandswings in any of the segments (cars, two-wheelers, commercial vehicles) have an impact on autoancillary demand. Demand is derived from original equipment manufacturers (OEM) as well as thereplacement market. Replacement demand accounts for close to 57% of total demand, while OEMsaccount for 27%, with exports accounting for the balance 16%.
ACMA, the Indian auto component industry body had an estimated 498 players registered with it inFY06. The industry has grown at a CAGR of 20% between 2000 and 2005 with total output invalue terms touching US$ 10 bn in 2005. Exports have grown at a much higher rate of 34% CAGR during the same period with output touching US$ 1.8 bn.
Margins in the replacement market are higher than the OEM market. OEM’s requirements increaseor decrease, depending upon general demand scenario and launch of vehicles. This market is verycompetitive and component manufacturers have to compromise on margins to bag bulk orders.Moreover, delivery schedules and quality standards have to be adhered to very strictly.
Indian auto ancillary sector has traditionally suffered from poor quality. While this still holds truefor the unorganized sector, the organized sector has been resorting to increased automation toreduce the defect levels. Defect rates in domestic auto ancillaries (including the popular suppliers)are in the range of 1,000 parts per million (ppm) against a global average of 200 ppm.
One area where domestic units compare favourably with their international peers is in terms of costs. Lower labour costs gives Indian auto ancillary companies an absolute cost advantage. Just to put things in perspective, ACMA numbers suggest that wage cost accounts for 3%-15% of revenuesfor Indian manufacturers as compared to 20%-40% for US players. India's strength in exports liesin forgings, castings and plastics historically. But this is changing with more componentmanufactures investing in upgradation of technology in recent years
Industry Structure
Supply
Low for high technology products. Unorganized sector dominates the domestic componentmarket due to excise benefits. Generally, excess supply persists.
Demand
Linked to automobile demand. Export demand is linked to the increasing acceptancetowards outsourcing.
Barriers to entry
Capital, technology, OEM relationships, customer service, distribution network to meet replacement demand.
Bargaining power of suppliers
Low with OEMs. Relatively high in the replacement market
Bargaining power of customers
Companies operating in the export market face competition at aglobal level. At the domestic level, market structure is fragmented for a large number of ancillary products. Most companies adopt low cost and differentiation strategies. In some products (like batteries), only two or three companies control over 80% of the market.
Competition
In future competition will intensify, as global players will enter the market leading toconsolidation. Dereservation of SSI will result in access to capital and technology
 
Prospects
There has been a conscious effort by manufacturers to improve productivity of the suppliers in the past few years. Though the number of active vendors has declined significantly for automanufacturers, technology transfer and fresh fund infusions have resulted in improved productivityin the remaining ones. This is a big positive for the industry, as historically, the sector has beendeprived of proper technical know-how and lack of funds. Relaxation of FDI norms for the small-
 
scale sector could emerge as one of the key growth drivers in the long run. The Indian automotivecomponents industry has lined up sizeable investment schedules for the next few years.
The automobile sector is cyclical and dependent on the growth of the economy and improvement ininfrastructure. Factors like increased public spending, favorable interest rates and generalimprovement in per capita income points towards higher demand for automobiles in the future.Also, government's initiatives in the infrastructure sector such as the Golden Quadrilateral projectand NHDP (National Highway Development Programme) is likely to give boost to four-wheeler sales especially CVs. Just to put things in perspective, we expect CV segment to grow by 22-25%,two-wheeler demand to increase by around 12% to 15% and passenger car sales growth at 12-15%in FY07. This is a positive for auto ancillary manufacturers.
In the long term, the growth of this sector will depend partly on pace of indigenisation levels acrossall segments. The prospects look bright as most companies are increasing the indigenouscomponents, in an effort to reduce their currency losses and remain competitive. Given the fact thatmany global players are launching models through the CKD route, there is a fair chance thatdomestic ancillary manufacturers will witness faster growth going forward. Also, the fact that automanufacturers like Ford, Hyundai and Maruti are exporting cars, prospects look encouraging.
In the future however, auto ancillary companies in India will face tough times, because ascompetition increases, manufacturers will find it difficult to increase prices and will try to cut costs.This will put pressure on margins of auto ancillary manufacturers. In the near future, companieswill need to have manufacturing lines that can be adapted for new models, have strong technology backing, an ability to export to developed markets, market dominance in specific products and agrowth plan driven by volumes and product innovations. Companies will have to focus on qualityand abide by delivery schedules if they want to survive. As manufacturers sourcing components arekeen to get components from fewer sources in future, as compared to what is happening currently,this will lead to consolidation in the sector. Many players have to face extinction, bulk of them inthe small-scale sector.
The growing number of Free and Preferential trade agreements being signed by India withcountries like Thailand, Singapore and other ASEAN countries will hurt the cost competitivenessof Indian companies as Indian players play significantly higher duties than its Asian counterparts.Therefore, Indian companies might lose out on big orders if the duty structure is not rationalized.
Financial Year '06
With slowdown in growth of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles in FY06, auto componentindustry also witnessed a slowdown in domestic growth as output increased by 15% in FY06 asagainst 30% in previous year. Exports however, continued with its strong performance and grew by29%.
In light of increased competition in the global market and over supply situation, bigger auto majorsfaced significant pressure on margins. However, the imperative to invest in new productdevelopment increased. This resulted in select global majors increasing budget for outsourcing of components in order to save cost. In fact, Bharat Forge won an order from Europe’s largest passenger carmaker in FY06.
Capacity utilisation rates of the auto ancillary sector as a whole increased significantly in light of higher exports as well as growth in domestic demand in FY06. The demand for commercialvehicles increased by 26% in FY05. For instance, Bharat Forge had to ramp up capacity to meetdemand as opposed to capacity utilisation of just 68% in FY03. The same was the case with Exideand Sundaram Fasteners.
The year was also witness to increase in overseas acquisitions by domestic companies. WhileBharat Forge acquired Imatra Kilsta of Sweden, other players like Amtek Auto also geared up their activities on this front

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