Read without ads and support Scribd by becoming a Scribd Premium Reader.

Language:

Download

Go BackAdd Note

Link

Embed

Save for later

Ways in which other Countries Predict, Prepareand Protect Fro Earthquakes.

Predict:

You can never predict an Earthquake to the Minuet or even the Day Howeveryou can tell if one is going to happen For Example:

Evaluation of prediction theories

fficial earthquake prediction evaluation councils have been established inCalifornia and the federal government in the United States (the NationalEarthquake Prediction Evaluation Council), but have yet to endorse anymethod of predicting quakes as reliable.Scientific evaluations of prediction claims look for the following elements in aclaim:A specific location or areaA specific span of timeA specific magnitude rangeA specific probability of occurrenceAttribution to a plausible physical mechanism lends credibility, and suggests ameans for future improvement and statistical analysis are used to distinguishpredictions which come true due to random chance (of which a certain numberare expected) versus those that have more useful predictive capability, and tovalidate models of long-term probability. Such models are difficult to test orvalidate because large earthquakes are so rare, and because earthquakeactivity is naturally clustered in space and time. "Predictions" which are madeonly after the fact are common but generally discounted..

Foreshock predictions

Foreshocks

are medium-sized earthquakes that precede major quakes.

An increase in foreshock activity

(combined with purported indications likeground water levels and strange animal behaviour) enabled the successfulevacuation of a million people one day before the February 4, 1975M7.3

Haicheng earthquake

by the China State Seismological Bureau.While 50% of major earthquakes are preceded by foreshocks, only about 5-10% of small earthquakes turn out to be foreshocks, leading to many falsewarnings.

Pattern theories

According to new research to be published by Prof.

Shlomo Havlin

, of Bar-IlanUniversity's Department of Physics, earthquakes form patterns which canimprove the ability to predict the timing of their recurrence. In November 2005(November 11 issue) the journal

Physical Review Letters

, published by the

AmericanPhysical Society

, published an article by researchers from Israel and Germany thatsay that there is a way to predict when the next earthquake will hit.Prof. Shlomo Havlin's from

Bar-Ilan University

in Israel, in collaboration with Prof.Armin Bunde, of the

Justus-Liebig University

in Giessen, Germany, and Bar-IlanUniversity graduate student Valerie Livina used the "scaling" approach fromphysics to develop a mathematical function to characterize earthquakes of awide range of magnitudes to learn from smaller magnitude earthquakes aboutlarger magnitude earthquakes. The team's findings reveal that the recurrenceof earthquakes is strongly dependent on the recurrence times of previousearthquakes.This memory effect not only provides a clue to understanding the observedclustering of earthquakes, but also suggests that delays in earthquakeoccurrences, as seen today in Tokyo and in San Francisco, are a naturalphenomenon.

Animal early warning

Animal behaviour reports are often ambiguous and not consistently observed.In folklore, some animals have been identified as being more able to predictearthquakes than others, especially dogs, cats, chickens, horses, toads andother smaller animals.

It has been postulated that the reported animal behaviour before anearthquake is simply their response to an increase in low-frequency

electromagnetic

signals. The

University of Colorado hasdemonstrated that electromagnetic activity can be generated by the fracturingof crystalline rock. Such activity occurs in fault lines before earthquakes.According to one study, electromagnetic sensors yield statistically valid resultsin predicting earthquakes.In Italy, findings from 2009 suggest that toads are able to detect pre-seismiccues.

idal forces

There are two flavors of tidal stressing that have been claimed to generateenhanced rates of earthquakes - diurnal and biweekly tides. The diurnalcorrelations would arise from more earthquakes only during the hours whenthe tidal stress is pushing in an encouraging direction, in contrast, biweeklyeffects would be based on earthquakes occurring during the days when thesinusoidal stressing oscillations are largest. The former, as most easilyobserved in the twice-daily rise and fall of the ocean tides, have occasionallybeen shown to influence tides , this paper shows there may be some weaktidal triggering of shallow, oceanic thrust-faulting earthquakes). The latter,which arises from the periodic alignment of the Sun and Moon, has often beenclaimed in the popular press to incubate earthquakes (sometimes termed the"syzygy" effect) and occasionally for small datasets in the scientific literature ,but generally such effects do not appear in careful studies of large datasets.Tidal forces are magnified during and after an eclipse. The solar tide isapproximately a third of the lunar tide. When the sun and moon are inalignment these tidal forces are combined.A paper published in Taiwan, by the Department of Astronomy, Beijing NormalUniversity, found a significant relationship to tidal forces and earthquakes inChina and Taiwan. The paper considers the relationship between 21 majorearthquakes (Ms  7.0) in land and the offshore area of Taiwan island in the20th century and the variance ratio of the lunar-solar tidal force. The resultindicates that the time of these earthquakes is closely related to the varianceratio of the lunar-solar tidal force, and therefore that the tidal force possibly