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 The United States, Japan, and China
Setting the Course
Neil E. SilverA Council on Foreign Relations Paper
 
 The Council on Foreign Relations, Inc., a nonprofit, nonpartisan national organizationfounded in
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, is dedicated to promoting understanding of international affairs throughthe free and civil exchange of ideas. The Council’s members are dedicated to the belief that America’s peace and prosperity are firmly linked to that of the world. From thisflows the mission of the Council: to foster America’s understanding of other nations—their peoples, cultures, histories, hopes, quarrels, and ambitions—and thus to serve ournation through study and debate, private and public.
 THE COUNCIL TAKES NO INSTITUTIONAL POSITION ON POLICY ISSUESANDHASNOAFFILIATIONWITHTHEU.S.GOVERNMENT.ALLSTATEMENTSOFFACTANDEXPRESSIONSOFOPINIONCONTAINEDIN ALL ITS PUBLICATIONS ARE THE SOLE RESPONSIBILITY OF THE AUTHOR OR AUTHORS.
From time to time books, monographs, reports, and papers written by members of theCouncil’s research staff or others are publishedas a ‘‘Council onForeign Relations Publica-tion.’’ Any work bearing that designation is, in the judgment of the Committee onStudies of the Council’s Board of Directors, a responsible treatment of a significantinternational topic.Council on Foreign Relations books and reports are distributed by Brookings InstitutionPress (1-800-275-1447). For further information about the Council or this report, please write the Council on Foreign Relations,
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, orcall the Director of Communications at (
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. Visit our website at
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.Copyright ©
2000
by the Council on Foreign Relations
, Inc.All rights reserved.Printed in the United States of America. This book may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form (beyond that copyingpermitted by Sections
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of the U.S. Copyright Law and excerpts by reviewersfor the public press), without written permission from the publisher. For information, write the Publications Office, Council on Foreign Relations,
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CONTENTS
Foreword
—
Lawrence J. Korb
v Acknowledgments viiExecutive Summary 
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Uncertain New Directions
4
Chinese-Japanese Dynamics: Post
–
 World War II
11
America
’
s Strategic and Tactical Choices
37 
Promoting Security 
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1
Promoting Dialogue
46
 The Results of Dialogue: Modest to Date
48
Challenges in the Next Five Years
57 
Recommendations
59
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