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Markov Chain Simulation of HIV/AIDS Movement Pattern

Markov Chain Simulation of HIV/AIDS Movement Pattern

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Markov Chain Simulation of HIV/AIDS Movement Pattern
Ruth Stephen BatureDepartment of Computer/Mathematical ScienceSchool of Science TechnologyFederal College of Chemical and Leather Technology,Zaria, Nigeria.
Obiniyi, A. A.
Department of Mathematics,Ahmadu Bello University,Zaria, Nigeriaaaobiniyi@yahoo.comrsbature@yahoo.com Ezugwu El-Shamir Absalom Sule, O. O.Department of Mathematics, Department of Computer/Mathematical ScienceAhmadu Bello University, School of Science TechnologyZaria, Nigeria Federal College of Chemical and Leather Technology,
Code_abs@yahoo.com,
Zaria, Nigeria bumsia@yahoo.com
Abstract
The objective of this research work is to simulate thespread of HIV/AIDS from one generation to another or fromone person to another, with a view of contributing to thecontrol of the disease. This will be accomplished using MarkovChain method with a computer program written in Java tosimulate the process. This paper is also concerned with themovement pattern of HIV/AIDS from one generation to another generation over a period of 20 years. This can help professional take the probability measures of HIV/AIDS over agiven period of time, within a specific area or location.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Markov Chain, Transition Matrix,Probability Matrix1.1 INTRODUCTIONAIDS is a term with an official definition used for epidemiological surveillance. This means that systematicreporting of AIDS cases is useful in helping to monitor the HIV pandemic and to plan public health responses. The term AIDSis not useful for the clinical care of individual patients. Inmanaging patients with HIV-related diseases, the aim is toidentify and treat whichever HIV-related diseases are present.There are many cases in which we would like to represent thestatistical distribution of these epidemiological occurrences in astate or form that will enable us analyze the trends in their  behavior by means of mathematical variables to enable us predict their future behavior. Markov Chain Models are wellsuited to this type of task. In this research work HIV/AIDSwas analyzed using the Markov Chain model.A Markov chain is a special type of stochastic process, whichmay be described as follows:At any given time n, when the current state X
n
and all previousstates X1, X2, X3…Xn-1 of the process are known, the probabilities of all future states Xj (j > n) depends only on thecurrent state Xn and does not depend on the earlier states X1,X2, X3…Xn-1.A process in which a system changes in random manner  between different states, at regular or irregular intervals iscalled a stochastic process. If the set of possible outcomes ateach trial is finite, the sequence of outcomes is called a finitestochastic process. In a stochastic process, the first observationX1 is called the initial state of the process; and for n = 2, 3…the observation Xn is called the state of the process at time n.A Markov chain is a stochastic process such that for n =1,2,3… and for any possible sequence of state;X1, X2, X3 … Xn+1, Pr (Xn+1 = Xn+1, X1 = X1, X2 =X2… Xn =Xn) = Pr (Xn+ 1 = Xn + 1 / Xn =Xn)…………………1,0,0Maki (1989) states that the Markov chain model and themodern theory of stochastic process was developed by anoutstanding Russian Mathematician called AndreevichMarkov.HIV is said to develop into full-blown AIDS when the bodyimmune system has been destroyed and can no longer performits function to fight off diseases that may attack the bodysystem. It is therefore, essential to certify that HIV/AIDS areinfectious disease, since they are caused by a virus and can betransmitted from person to person. These persons can becategorized into the following:The Susceptible People (S),
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 8, No. 2, May 2010156http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500
 
 
The Infective People (I) andThe Clinical AIDS Cases (A).
Fig: 1. HIV/AIDS States Diagram
All these fit the conditions required for Markov chain to beused for analysis. An S person does not carry the AIDS virus but can contact it through sexual contacts with I person/people,or by sharing of needles, in Intravenous drug (IV) used, or by blood transfusion of contaminated blood; there is a chance thathe/she could develop AIDS symptoms to become an AIDScase.An AIDS, case (A) person is a person who has developedAIDS symptom or has cell count in the blood falling below200/mm
3
which result to death.In the study of the HIV/AIDS epidemiology in terms of themode of transmission of the epidemic, there exist three typesof people regarding HIV epidemic in a given population.There are: the S (susceptible) people, the I (infective) peopleand the A (clinical AIDS cases) people. An S person does notcarry the HIV or AIDS virus but can contact it through sexualcontact with I people or AIDS cases or by sharing needles or other infected materials in IV drug use or through verticaltransmission from an HIV – infected mother to her child. An I person carries the AIDS virus and can transmit the virus to S people through sexual contact or sharing contaminated needleswith I people; there is a chance that he/she will developHIV/AIDS symptoms to become an AIDS case. An AIDScase (an A person) is a person who has developed AIDSsymptoms or who has CD4
+
T cells counts in the blood falling below 200/mm
3
.
2.1 Literature Review
One of the most attractive features of the natural sciences suchas chemistry, Biology, Physics and Mathematics is that theycan formulate principles mathematically, and from these principles, they can make predictions about the behaviour of asystem.Many related literatures were reviewed and detailedinformation on the study of HIV/AIDS using Markov ChainModel was outlined. The symptoms were clearly stated asfollows: Coughing, Slight Fever, loss of weight, sweating whilesleeping, difficulty in breathing and feeling tired through your entire body.The provirus called human immune deficiency virus (HIV) wasisolated as the causative agent of AIDS in the United State of America by Centers for Disease Control (CDC). A blood testwas then formulated to detect the virus in a person, and thevirus targets in the body were established. The HIV infects asubpopulation of the thymus – derived T Lymphocytes calledCD4+ Lymphocytes or T4 cells, which are helper cells. TheseT cells perform recognition and induction function as part of the immune response to foreign stimuli. In recognizing aforeign antigen, the CD4+ T cell plays a major role instimulating other cells, such as the macrophages, to ingest anddestroy infected cells. However, a suppressor T lymphocyte “or CD8+ T cells can also attack cells infection with a virusdirectly by a process called “cell – mediated cytotoxicity”.Since CD4+ T cells not only have direct cytotoxic activity butalso secrete factors that stimulate the proliferation of CD8+cytotoxic T cells, and are also important in promoting cell – mediated cytotoxicity. Thus, the CD4+ T plays a central role in both humoral and cell – mediated defenses (Cooley, P. C.,1993).When an individual is infected with HIV, the clinical responseis complex, progressive and varies among individuals. Withinfew days of infection, an individual develops an acutemononucleosis like syndrome with fever, malaria andlymphadenopathy the swelling of the lymph glands, butsymptoms abate as HIV bonds to cells with CD4+ T Receptor.HIV attacks CD4+ cells because they contain the CD4+receptors, and kills CD4+. T – Lymphocytes level drop rapidlyfrom a pre-infection normal level of about 1125 CD4+ T cells per ml to about 800 cells per ml, the decline proceeds at aslower pace (Cooley P. C., Hamill, P. C. and Myers L. E.1993).One of the perpetual dreams of mankind has always been to beable to predict the future. The regular recurrence of anepidemic and the similar shapes of consecutive epidemics of adisease have for a long time tempted people with mathematicalinclination to make some kind of model (Tan W.Y., 1993 and2000.This chance of mathematics, in turning vague questions into precise problems, in recognizing the similar features of apparently diverse situations, in organizing information and inmaking predictions is vital in our social and personal lives.It was observed that the growth and development of this model probability could be traced to two separate phenomena Viz: theneeds for government to collect information on its citizenry andthe development of a Mathematical Model of probabilitytheory. Today these data are used for many purposes includingapportionment and strategic decision – making (Tan, 2000). NormaDiseasDeat
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 8, No. 2, May 2010157http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500
 
 
A practical application of this decision theory approach isevident in the analysis of genetics, particularly in Sickle cellanemia, and also a practical approach to this theory is evidentin the analysis of employment status particularly in BauchiState.
2.2 MARKOV CHAIN MODEL
The term Markov chain analysis refers to a quantitativetechnique that involves the analysis of the current behaviour of some variables in order to predict the future behaviour of thatvariable.2.2.1 Properties of Markov Chain Modela. An experiment has a finite number of discreteoutcomes called states. The process or experiment is alwaysin one of these states.The sample space;S = {X
1
, X
2
, X3… Xn} remains the same for eachexperiment or trail,Where X
1
, X
2
, X
3
Xn are states. b. With each additional trail, the experiment can movefrom its present state to any other or remains in the same state.c. The probability of going from one state to another inthe next trail depends only on the present state or proceedingtrail and not on past state and upon no other previous trails.d. The probability of moving from any one state toanother in one step is represented in a transition matrix.For each i and j, the probability pi, j and Xj will occur giventhat what occurred on the preceding trail remains constantthrough the sequence (stationary transition probability)2.2.2 Probability Matrix:State 1 2 3-------------N Sum of row1 n
11
n
12
n
13
----------n
1n
S
1
 2 n
21
n
22
n
23
----------n
2n
S
2
 3 n
31
n
32
n
33
-----------n
3n
S
3
  N n
 N1
n
 N2
----------n
 NN
S
 N
 Each entry n i, j in the table refer to the number of times atransition has occurred from state i to state j. The probabilitytransition matrix is formed by dividing each element in everyrow by the sum of each row.Fig.3: Transition diagram of Markov Chain
3.1 Mathematical Representation of Markov Processes
A Markov chain as earlier explained is a stochastic processsuch that for n = 1,2,3… and for any possible sequence of states x
1
, x
2
, x
3,
…, x
n+1,
Pr (X
n+1
= x
n+1
/X
1
=x
1
, X
2
=x
2
… X
n
=x
n
)=Pr (X
n+1
= x
n+1
/X
n
=x
n
).From the multiplication rule of conditional probability, givenasP (E n A)=P (E) P (A/E), where E is an arbitrary event in asample space S with P (E) > 0 and A is any event and usingthe fact that A n E = E n A, it follows that the probability in aMarkov chain must satisfy the relation: (Norman,1961).IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII
1
/
32
/
31
/
32
/
32
/
32
/
31
/
31
/
32
/
32
/
31
/
32
/
31
/
3
II
1
/
3
III
2
/
1
/
1
/
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 8, No. 2, May 2010158http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500

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