Markov Chain Simulation of HIV/AIDS Movement Pattern
Ruth Stephen BatureDepartment of Computer/Mathematical ScienceSchool of Science TechnologyFederal College of Chemical and Leather Technology,Zaria, Nigeria.
Obiniyi, A. A.
Department of Mathematics,Ahmadu Bello University,Zaria, Nigeriaaaobiniyi@email@example.com Ezugwu El-Shamir Absalom Sule, O. O.Department of Mathematics, Department of Computer/Mathematical ScienceAhmadu Bello University, School of Science TechnologyZaria, Nigeria Federal College of Chemical and Leather Technology,
Zaria, Nigeria firstname.lastname@example.org
The objective of this research work is to simulate thespread of HIV/AIDS from one generation to another or fromone person to another, with a view of contributing to thecontrol of the disease. This will be accomplished using MarkovChain method with a computer program written in Java tosimulate the process. This paper is also concerned with themovement pattern of HIV/AIDS from one generation to another generation over a period of 20 years. This can help professional take the probability measures of HIV/AIDS over agiven period of time, within a specific area or location.
Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Markov Chain, Transition Matrix,Probability Matrix1.1 INTRODUCTIONAIDS is a term with an official definition used for epidemiological surveillance. This means that systematicreporting of AIDS cases is useful in helping to monitor the HIV pandemic and to plan public health responses. The term AIDSis not useful for the clinical care of individual patients. Inmanaging patients with HIV-related diseases, the aim is toidentify and treat whichever HIV-related diseases are present.There are many cases in which we would like to represent thestatistical distribution of these epidemiological occurrences in astate or form that will enable us analyze the trends in their behavior by means of mathematical variables to enable us predict their future behavior. Markov Chain Models are wellsuited to this type of task. In this research work HIV/AIDSwas analyzed using the Markov Chain model.A Markov chain is a special type of stochastic process, whichmay be described as follows:At any given time n, when the current state X
and all previousstates X1, X2, X3…Xn-1 of the process are known, the probabilities of all future states Xj (j > n) depends only on thecurrent state Xn and does not depend on the earlier states X1,X2, X3…Xn-1.A process in which a system changes in random manner between different states, at regular or irregular intervals iscalled a stochastic process. If the set of possible outcomes ateach trial is finite, the sequence of outcomes is called a finitestochastic process. In a stochastic process, the first observationX1 is called the initial state of the process; and for n = 2, 3…the observation Xn is called the state of the process at time n.A Markov chain is a stochastic process such that for n =1,2,3… and for any possible sequence of state;X1, X2, X3 … Xn+1, Pr (Xn+1 = Xn+1, X1 = X1, X2 =X2… Xn =Xn) = Pr (Xn+ 1 = Xn + 1 / Xn =Xn)…………………1,0,0Maki (1989) states that the Markov chain model and themodern theory of stochastic process was developed by anoutstanding Russian Mathematician called AndreevichMarkov.HIV is said to develop into full-blown AIDS when the bodyimmune system has been destroyed and can no longer performits function to fight off diseases that may attack the bodysystem. It is therefore, essential to certify that HIV/AIDS areinfectious disease, since they are caused by a virus and can betransmitted from person to person. These persons can becategorized into the following:The Susceptible People (S),
(IJCSIS) International Journal of Computer Science and Information Security,Vol. 8, No. 2, May 2010156http://sites.google.com/site/ijcsis/ISSN 1947-5500