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IMPLEMENTASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES DENGAN PENENTUAN INTERVAL BERBASIS RATA-RATA UNTUK PERAMALAN DATA PENJUALAN BULANAN

# IMPLEMENTASI METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES DENGAN PENENTUAN INTERVAL BERBASIS RATA-RATA UNTUK PERAMALAN DATA PENJUALAN BULANAN

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Fuzzy time series forecasting system seizes the patterns from the previous data and uses it to project the future data. Whereas it does not need a sophisticated learning method as in genetic algorithm and neural network does, will make fuzzy time series easier to be developed. In the forecasting calculation using this method, interval length is determined at the beginning of the process. While the different lengths of intervals may results vary in fuzzy relationship, and in turn different forecasting results. Therefore, the appropriate fuzzy relationship is important to be built based on the effective length of intervals. One of the solutions is average-based interval fuzzy time series. In this thesis, average-based fuzzy time series is implemented to forecast the amount of monthly sales that available on the U.S. Census Bureau website. From the research can be obtained that average-based interval fuzzy time series is more accurate than the standard method with fixed number of intervals. The calculation shows approximately 52.39 % in AFER and 70.90 % in MSE for the result deviation between the two methods.
Fuzzy time series forecasting system seizes the patterns from the previous data and uses it to project the future data. Whereas it does not need a sophisticated learning method as in genetic algorithm and neural network does, will make fuzzy time series easier to be developed. In the forecasting calculation using this method, interval length is determined at the beginning of the process. While the different lengths of intervals may results vary in fuzzy relationship, and in turn different forecasting results. Therefore, the appropriate fuzzy relationship is important to be built based on the effective length of intervals. One of the solutions is average-based interval fuzzy time series. In this thesis, average-based fuzzy time series is implemented to forecast the amount of monthly sales that available on the U.S. Census Bureau website. From the research can be obtained that average-based interval fuzzy time series is more accurate than the standard method with fixed number of intervals. The calculation shows approximately 52.39 % in AFER and 70.90 % in MSE for the result deviation between the two methods.

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11/28/2013

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