ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS

PROJECT WORK 2 / 2010

THEORY OF PROBABILITY

NAME : SYAFIQAH NAJWA BINTI KAMARUDIN

CLASS : 5 HARVARD

TEACHER : PN. AZIMA

SCHOOL : MRSM PONTIAN

 CONTENTS

PART 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

PART 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
PART 1

Introduction

Probability theory is a branch of mathematics concerned with

determining the long run frequency or chance that a given event will

occur. This chance is determined by dividing the number of selected

events by the number of total events possible. For example, each of

the six faces of a die has one in six probability on a single toss.

Inspired by problems encountered by seventeenth century gamblers,

probability theory has developed into one of the most respected and

useful branches of mathematics with applications in many different

industries. Perhaps what makes probability theory most valuable is

that it can be used to determine the expected outcome in any

situation from the chances that a plane will crash to the probability

that a person will win the lottery.

The Probability and Its Applications sequence issues research

monographs, with the expository excellence to make them useful and

available to advanced students, in probability and stochastic

processes, with a particular focus on:

 Basics of probability containing stochastic analysis and Markov

and other stochastic processes

 Applications of probability in analysis

  Application Point processes, random sets, and other spatial

models

 Branching processes and other models of population growth

 Genetics and other stochastic models in Application biology

 Information theory and signal processing

 Communication networks

 Application Stochastic models in operations research

The probability theory

The theoretical probability, or probability, P(E), of an event E is the

fraction of times we expect E to occur if we repeat the same

experiment over and over. In an experiment in which all outcomes are

equally likely, the theoretical probability of an event E is

Number of favorable outcomes n(E)

=
= .

Total number of outcomes n(S)

P(E)

(The "favorable outcomes" are the outcomes in E.)

The empirical approach to determining probabilities relies on data

from actual experiments to determine approximate probabilities

instead of the assumption of equal likeliness. Probabilities in these

experiments are defined as the ratio of the frequency of the

occupance of an event, f(E), to the number of trials in the experiment,

n, written symbolically as P(E) = f(E)/n. If our experiment involves

flipping a coin, the empirical probability of heads is the number of

heads divided by the total number of flips.

The relationship between these empirical probabilities and the

theoretical probabilities is suggested by the Law of Large Numbers. It

states that as the number of trials of an experiment increases, the

empirical probability approaches the theoretical probability. This

makes sense as we would expect that if we roll a die numerous times,

each number would come up approximately 1/6 of the time. The study

of empirical probabilities is known as statistics.

PART 2

(a)Possible outcomes when the dice is tossed once

{1,2,3,4,5,6}

(b)Possible outcomes when two dice are tossed

simultaneously

Total Outcome
{ (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}
Chart

DICE2

6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)

4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,6)

3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)

2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)

1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)

1 2 3 4 5 6 DICE 1
Table

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6)
2 (2,1) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6)
3 (3,1) (3,2) (3,3) (3,4) (3,5) (3,6)
4 (4,1) (4,2) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)
5 (5,1) (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6)
6 (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)
Tree diagram
PART 3

(a)
 SUM OF THE
DOTS ON BOTH POSSIBLE OUTCOMES PROBABILITIES
TURNED UP (X)
FACES
2 (1,1) 1/36
3 (1,2),(2,1) 2/36=1/18
4 (1,3),(2,2),(3,1) 3/36=1/12
5 (1,4),(2,3),(3,2),(4,1) 4/36=1/9
6 (1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1) 5/36
7 (1,6),(2,5),(3,4),(4,3),(5,2),(6,1) 6/36
8 (2,6),(3,5),(4,4),(5,3),(6,2) 5/36
9 (3,6),(4,5),(5,4),(6,3) 4/36=1/9
10 (4,6),(5,5),(6,4) 3/36=1/12
11 (5,6),(6,5) 2/36=1/18
12 (6,6) 1/36

(b)Possible outcomes of

A = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6)

(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6)
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6)
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6)
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6)
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)}

B=ø

P = Both number are prime

P = {(2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}

Q = Difference of 2 number is odd

Q = { (1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3),
(4,5), (5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5) }
C=PUQ
C = {1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,5), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,3), (4,5), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5) }

R = The sum of 2 numbers are even

R = {(1,1), (1,3), (1,5), (2,2), (2,4), (2,6), (3,1), (3,3), (3,5), (4,2), (4,4),
(4,6), (5,1), (5,3), (5,5), (6,2(, (6,4), (6,6)}

D=P∩R
D = {(2,2), (3,3), (3,5), (5,3), (5,5)}

PART 4

x f fx Fx2
 2 2 4 8
3 4 12 36
4 4 16 64
5 9 45 225
6 4 24 144
7 11 77 539
8 4 32 256
9 6 54 486
10 3 30 300
11 1 11 121
12 2 24 288

From the table,

(i)

(ii)

Variance, 2=  fx _ 2
 f
=2467 _ 6.582
50
=6.0436
(iii)

Standard Deviation = √∑ fx _
∑f
= √ 2467 _ 6.582

50

= 2.458