rvxi

IMT
mk

( )

87 8 () 10400
0 2271 0151-60 : www.ntc.or.th

4
1. 7
2. 7
3. 7
4. 12
4.1 12
4.2 13
4.3 14
5. 15
5.1 IMT 15
5.2 17
5.3 17
5.4 2G 18
6. 19
6.1 IMT 19
6.2 20
6.3 20
6.4 (Infrastructure sharing) 20
6.5 21
IMT
7. 22
7.1 2G 22
7.2 22
7.3 (Rollout) 23
7.4 24
7.5 24
7.6 (Infrastructure sharing) 24
8. 25
8.1 25
8.2 25
2 34
 8.3 (Rollout) 26
8.4 26
8.5 26
9. 27
10. 28
10.1 28
10.2 30
10.3 31
10.4 32
10.5 32
11. 32

3 34


IMT
2.1 GHz
IMT

IMT


15
MHz-paired

IMT

(MVNOs)
(MVNO)

IMT

4 34


2G 2G
IMT







(Applications & contents) 80
IMT 4

IMT

IMT GDP
240,000 480,000 15
IMT
2G
2G

IMT

5 34
 (FDI) IMT FDI

FDI

IMT
application contents

IMT

Content .

IMT (
)

IMT
(
)
IMT
IMT
Wi-Fi hotspots

( GPS )
(xDSL)
IMT
. IMT

.

6 34
 IMT

1.

.. 2549

2.

IMT

3.
3.1
-- (Build-Transfer-Operate)


1

7 34
 3.2 1 2553
66 98.72
2550
2

3.3
(Minute of User: MOU) (Average
Revenue per User: ARPU)
2549 3

3.4.--

8 34


3.5 (CAPEX/Revenue)

2549
20-30 10

-
- (Build-Transfer-Operate) .
IMT

Capex / Revenue

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009

3.6
(Voice) (Non-
Voice) 2551
14.75
2552
17.11 16.6

9 34
 3.7 OVUM
33.65
1 3
2557

3.8
Mobile Applications
2551 2,640
NECTEC 3,720
20.4 Computer software

4000 25%
Millions

3500
20%
3000

2500 15%
2000

1500 10%

1000
5%
500

0 0%
2551 2552 2553f

:NECTEC

10 34
 3.9




(ROCE)


2-3 3
ROCE

ROCE 20062008
2006 2007 2008
AIS 24.6 25.0 27.2
DTAC 17.0 14.6 18.2
True Move 0.2 8.0 2.2
Combined 18.1 18.6 20.0
Source: Economic and Regulatory Analysis for Mobile Phone Service (IMT or IMT and
beyond) NERA, 2009

ROCE
(WACC) ROCE WACC ROCE
WACC
ROCE 3
24-26 %
WACC ( 2G 12.5-
15% 13.5 %
) 12-15% ( 2G
12.5-15% 13.5 %
1

)
1
1900 MHz
ENST
11 34
 IMT
2G


IMT
2 ROCE
WACC IMT

IMT

2G 2
IMT ROCE
2G
ARPU


ROCE
IMT
.
3.10

IMT 3G

4.
4.1
IMT

IMT

12 34
 2G

IMT
1
Mbps ( IMT
7.2 Mbps (HSDPA) )
(ADSL)
2G mobility

IMT
4.2
10

(Penetration Rate) 2553 ()
98 ( 3.2 3.3)
2550
2-3
1 1

1 (
25%: NERA)

IMT
( 3.6)

ARPU 200-300 IMT

13 34
 590-999
IMT
(+) (-)


2G

IMT

IMT





(TOT-1900 MHz) IMT
MVNO IMT

IMT

4.3

3G

3G
50,000 -100,000 5

14 34
 3G MSC, HLR, Base Station, Protocol & Interface System

IMT
IMT .
IMT


..

3G
(Interface) (Protocol)

IMT mobile application

application

5.
IMT

5.1 IMT
IMT TOT CAT (Hutch)
1900 800 MHz TOT
2G Thai Mobile 60,000
0.1 (2G) CAT (Hutch)
2G IMT
2G TOT CAT(Hutch)

15 34
 2G ( GPRS)


TOT IMT
Mobile Virtual Network Operators (MVNO)

TOT CAT(Hutch)

.

TOT CAT (Hutch)

TOT CAT (Hutch)
IMT

IMT

IMT


infrastructure sharing
(MVNOs)
(MVNO)

. 3-4


3

16 34


20%
3
MVNOs
value chain
5.2


IMT ( IMT
)
IMT 2G
IMT
IMT 2G
2G

IMT

5.3 (Migration)

2G IMT
IMT

TOT CAT
TOT CAT AIS,
DTAC, True Move
IMT (
) 2G TOT

IMT MVNOs

17 34
MVNOs IMT

MVNOs

2G IMT
5.4 2G
IMT
2G

IMT
AIS 20 %
30 % TOT
DTAC True Move 25 % CAT
-
3 2006-2008 AIS 60,000
DTAC True Move 42,000
18,000

()*
2005 2006 2007 2008
AIS 20%/30%, 25% 19,215 18,754 19,691 20,021
DTAC 25% 14,389 16,790 11,970 13,714
TRUE 25% NA 7,584 5,442 4,831

: NERA ; () (AIS) Annual Reports, 2006-2008;

() (DTAC) , 2006-2008; () (True
Corp.) , 2006-2008.

IMT 2x15 MHz

13,000 ( NERA) 15
(amortization rate)
866

18 34
 2006 2008
1 4 % 2 %
Universal Service Obligation (USO) 4 %
3 7-10 %
15 23 %


2G
IMT 2G
2G IMT




IMT
2G

IMT

6.
6.1 IMT
15 MHz-paired

19 34
 6.2





(Windfall gain)
(
IMT) IMT (
)


.
IMT

6.3 (Mobile Number Portability)

IMT
IMT
2G IMT
2G

6.4 (Infrastructure sharing)

IMT
.
LLU Roaming

20 34

HHI (Retail Market)
(perfect
competition)

6.5
IMT (-)
6.5.1
(-):
IMT
. True






6.5.2 :
3 2G
IMT 3 IMT

IMT

IMT
IMT

(-)

21 34
7.

7.1 2G
IMT 2G

BTO


IMT
IMT
/

7.2
IMT

Infrastructure sharing


()

IMT TOT (Thai Mobile)
CAT (Hutch)
IMT
IMT
MVNO IMT

22 34

( TOT )
IMT

(incumbent)
.

Infrastructure Sharing, Roaming,

7.4 Roll out

IMT

IMT

Roll out


roll out
50% 2 80 % 4

23 34
 7.5
IMT (take-up rate)
IMT
IMT
IMT 2G

IMT 2G
2G ()
IMT
2G

7.6

(2G)
2G

CAT TOT

IMT


MVNO

7.7 (Infrastructure sharing)

IMT
.
LLU Roaming

24 34
8.
IMT
(Consumer surplus)

8.1
IMT

()

(marginal cost)

8.2

IMT
IMT ( WCDMA,
CDMA2000, HSDPA ) 2G
(incremental cost)

25 34
 8.3 roll out
Roll out

8.4
.

IMT
IMT
.

8.5 .
8.5.1 :



IMT

26 34
 .
(Price Taker)

2G
2G

(upfront costs)
.
. ,

8.5.2 : IMT
2G 2G
IMT
IMT

2G
IMT

9.

IMT


2

2
RICS (Royal Instutution of Chartered Surveyors), Valuation of Intangible Asset, Four case studies, 2006
27 34






.

( NERA)

3 Simultaneous Multiple Round (SMR)

.



Sequential Auction ( NERA)
sequential

3
Radio Agency 2002 Prof. Martin Cave OFCOM
28 34
10.
10.1
IMT


IMT
IMT
ARPUs

IMT

IMT

IMT (Multiplier)
Chalmers University of Technology
IMT GDP
% GDP
0.4-2.1% ( ICT)
50,000 IMT
1900MHz 2*15 MHz 5-10%
( ICT) 2,500-5,000
IMT
4

2* 15 MHz 3
() 240,000 480,000 (7,500 15,000
)

IMT

4
1900 MHz
Chalmers University of Technology
29 34
 (economic rent)
(Welfare)


(Premium)

2
()



Reserve Price
Reserve price (
30,000 )

10.2
10.2.1 FDI:
FDI GDP
GDP FDI
IMT (
IMT)
FDI
IMT 2G

2G

IMT FDI
IMT FDI
FDI
(

30 34
 FDI GDP ) FDI

( )

10.2.2


IMT
IMT
IMT


IMT
GDP
IMT
IMT

10.3

10.3.1 :
IMT
IMT Non-
Voice Mobile Internet
IMT

IMT IMT
Smart Phone PDA (Personal Digital Assistant)
netbook IMT

31 34
 10.3.2 :
IMT Cell
Site Network Carrier

10.3.3 :
Content IMT
Content

10.3.4 ;

,

10.4

IMT
Criterion Economics
1
18 5

10.5

Content .

IMT (
)

5
Ibid., citing Criterion Economics, The effects of Ubiquitous Broadband Adoption on Jobs, Investment and the
U.S. Economy, September 2003.
32 34
11.

IMT
(
)
IMT
IMT
Wi-Fi hotspots

( GPS )
(xDSL)
IMT

IMT

IMT IMT
ADSL ( 3-6 Mbps)

IMT

11.1
IMT

e-mail

33 34


11.2
IMT



IMT

11.3

11.4
49 %
IMT
Thai Mobile IMT 1900 MHz

11.5

IMT

34 34