MEMORANDUMDate:

June 23, 2010

RE:

Public Perceptions of Alberta GovernmentSpotlight recently commissioned a few questions about the public moodregarding the current provincial government. Following are the findings(detailed charts attached):

Right Track/Wrong Track

Spotlight is of the opinion that this is one of the most important questionsthat can be asked about government/political performance, but is rarelyincluded in polls that are released publicly. This essentially asks whether thepublic believes the government is more or less on the right track, or is goingdown the wrong track. It is a more reliable indicator of their satisfaction withthe government than is any snapshot poll of voting intention.The results show that 64% of Albertans believe the government is on the righttrack more or less, and only 31% believe it is on the wrong track more or less.These are very good numbers compared with other governments andsituations: governing parties frequently have a 50/50 result, or even a modest“wrong track” result because voters are typically more inclined to rememberthe things they don’t like than the things they do like, or to give greaterweight to the decisions they disliked.

Handling of the Recession

This question tested the public perception of the government’s handling of the economic recession. Spotlight views this as an indicator of the public’sview of the government’s competence in tough times, and consequentlywhether it is generally acknowledged to be a steady and reliable performer.Our experience shows that the state of the economy is one of the primaryunderlying factors in how people actually cast their vote at election time.18% of respondents said that the provincial government’s policies wereappropriate; and another 42% said that while they disagreed with someactions, unusual times require unusual steps. This second response isimportant, because the media (and commentators) often put emphasis onpeople’s disagreements with public policy, but the important question iswhether people understand why it was done and are prepared to accept iteven if they don’t like it. These responses suggest that people understood.

Another 25% felt the policies did not buffer Albertans from the recession, and only 11% felt thepolicies made the recession worse. That 11% likely coincides with people who would neverconsider voting PC under any circumstance.

The Snapshot Question

This question is often called the headline question, because it is what gets the headlines in themedia. Spotlight asked the headline question, but also asked the undecided voters if they wereleaning in any direction; and also asked everyone for their second choices. This is a more indepth means of testing peoples’ voting intentions, because campaigns do matter. Localcandidates matter. Issues matter. The vote is not going to be held today, so what is the range of choices people are prepared to consider?

Voting Intention: Solid

PC: 25%WRA: 15%Lib: 10%NDP: 6%Green: 5%Other: 1%Undecided: 24%Wouldn’t vote: 5%DK/NR: 9%

Voting Intention: Solid plus Leaning

PC: 40%WRA: 24%Lib: 17%NDP: 8%Green: 8%Other: 3%

Voting Intention: Second Choice

PC: 21%Lib: 19%WRA: 15%NDP: 11%Green: 7%Other: 2%Undecided: 11%DK/NR: 13%

Together, this suggests that the PC Party has room for growth in an actual campaign, as agreater number of currently undecided voters are leaning to them; and they also capture moresecond choice votes in the event that a voter’s first choice loses appeal.

Key Issues

Finally, which issues matter to voters when they decide how they will vote? Detailed results areon the charts attached, but in short, the issues stack up like this (number indicates the total of

Very Important

and

Important

for voters in deciding how they will cast their vote):Health Care: 82%Environment: 77%Controlling health costs: 75%Funding Education: 74%Reducing crime: 71%Infrastructure: 69%In touch with Grassroots: 68%Improving fiscal situation: 67%Keeping taxes low: 65%Fast growth economy: 63%More oil & gas: 45%

Analysis

On the basis of these six key questions, Spotlight believes that the position of the governmentmay be stronger than what is portrayed in the media, or assumed from the top-line HeadlinePolls that report only the “if the vote were held today” question. The government shows somestrength in the “leaning” and “second choice” categories. They also show good results on howthey handled the recession, and quite frankly excellent results on the right track-wrong trackquestion. There is some foundational strength in their position – room to grow from an unusualeconomic event that put virtually every government in a difficult position in 2008-09.The issue results suggest that voters are looking for real results in health care, but with an eyeto balancing services with costs. The appearance of Environment and Education high on the listsuggests that Albertans are not only interested in low taxes, an improving fiscal (debt) situation,and a growing economy (all of which rank lower), but care about quality of life issues. Being intouch with grassroots opinion ranks in the middle range, suggesting that there is room forimprovement but it is less of an opinion-driver than the quality of life issues.

Questions?

Susan Elliott: (403) 539-4995 or susan.elliott@spotlightstrategies.com.