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



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TheFutureoftheInternet

ExpertsandstakeholderssaytheInternetwillenhanceourintelligence–notmakeusstupid.Itwillalsochangethefunctionsofreadingandwritingandbebuiltaroundstill‐unanticipatedgadgetryandapplications.ThebattleovercontroloftheInternetwillrageonanddebatesaboutonlineanonymitywillpersist.

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JannaQuitneyAnderson,ElonUniversityLeeRainie,PewInternet&AmericanLifeProjectFebruary19,2010

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PewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectAninitiativeofthePewResearchCenter1615LSt.,NW–Suite700Washington,D.C.20036202‐419‐4500|pewinternet.org

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ThispublicationispartofaPewResearchCenterseriesthatcapturespeople’sexpectationsforthefutureoftheInternet,intheprocesspresentingasnapshotofcurrentattitudes.Findoutmoreat:http://www.pewInternet.org/topics/Future‐of‐the‐Internet.aspxandhttp://www.imaginingtheinternet.org.

Overview

Inanonlinesurveyof895technologystakeholders’andcritics’expectationsofsocial,politicalandeconomicchangeby2020,fieldedbythePewResearchCenter’sInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenter:

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Googlewon’tmakeusstupid:

76%oftheseexpertsagreedwiththestatement,“By2020,people’suseoftheInternethasenhancedhumanintelligence;aspeopleareallowedunprecedentedaccesstomoreinformationtheybecomesmarterandmakebetterchoices.NicholasCarrwaswrong:Googledoesnotmakeusstupid.”SomeofthebestanswersareinPart1ofthisreport.

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Reading,writing,andtherenderingofknowledgewillbeimproved:

65%agreedwiththestatement“by2020itwillbeclearthattheInternethasenhancedandimprovedreading,writingandtherenderingofknowledge.”Still,32%oftherespondentsexpressedconcernsthatby2020“itwillbeclearthattheInternethasdiminishedandendangeredreading,writingandtherenderingofknowledge.”SomeofthebestanswersareinPart2ofthisreport.

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Innovationwillcontinuetocatchusbysurprise:

80%oftheexpertsagreedthatthe“hotgadgetsandapplicationsthatwillcapturetheimaginationsofusersin2020willoftencome‘outoftheblue.’”SomeofthebestanswersareinPart3ofthisreport.

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Respondentshopeinformationwillflowrelativelyfreelyonline,thoughtheyexpecttherewillbeflashpointsovercontroloftheInternet.

ConcernsovercontroloftheInternetwereexpressedinanswerstoaquestionabouttheend‐to‐endprinciple.61%respondedthattheInternetwillremainasitsfoundersenvisioned,howevermanywhoagreedwiththestatementthat“mostdisagreementsoverthewayinformationflowsonlinewillberesolvedinfavorofaminimumnumberofrestrictions”alsonotedthattheirresponsewasa“hope”andnotnecessarilytheirtrueexpectation.33%chosetoagreewiththestatementthat“theInternetwillmostlybecomeatechnologywhereintermediaryinstitutionsthatcontrolthearchitectureand…contentwillbesuccessfulingainingtherighttomanageinformationandthemethodbywhichpeopleaccessit.”SomeofthebestanswersareinPart4ofthisreport.

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Anonymousonlineactivitywillbechallenged,thoughamodestmajoritystillthinkitwillpossiblein2020:

Theremoreofasplitverdictamongtheexpertrespondentsaboutthefateononlineanonymity.Some55%agreedthatInternetuserswillstillbeabletocommunicateanonymously,while41%agreedthatby2020“anonymousonlineactivityissharplycurtailed.”

SurveyMethod:‘Tensionpairs’weredesignedtoprovokedetailedelaborations

Thisisthefourth“FutureoftheInternet”surveyconductedbythePewInternet&AmericanLifeProjectandElonUniversity’sImaginingtheInternetCenter.ThesurveysareconductedthroughonlinequestionnairestowhichaselectedgroupofexpertsandthehighlyengagedInternetpublichavebeeninvitedtorespond.Thesurveyspresentpotential‐futurescenariostowhichrespondentsreactwiththeirexpectationsbasedoncurrentknowledgeandattitudes.Youcanviewdetailedresultsfromthefirstthreesurveyshere:http://www.pewInternet.org/topics/Future‐of‐the‐Internet.aspx

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andhttp://www.elon.edu/e‐web/predictions/expertsurveys/default.xhtml.Expandedresultsarepublishedinthe“FutureoftheInternet”bookseriespublishedbyCambriaPress.RespondentstotheFutureoftheInternetIVsurvey,fieldedfromDec.2,2009toJan.11,2010,wereaskedtoconsiderthefutureoftheInternet‐connectedworldbetweennowand2020andthelikelyinnovationthatwilloccur.Theywereaskedtoassess10different“tensionpairs”–eachpairofferingtwodifferent2020scenarioswiththesameoverallthemeandoppositeoutcomes–andtheywereaskedtoselecttheonemostlikelychoiceoftwostatements.ThetensionpairsandtheiralternativeoutcomeswereconstructedtoreflectpreviousstatementsaboutthelikelyevolutionoftheInternet.TheywerereviewedandeditedbythePewInternetAdvisoryBoard.Inthisreport,weofferresultsfromananalysisofresponsestofiveofthe10tensionpairsofferedtorespondentstothissurvey.PleasenotethatthisstudyisprimarilyfocusedonelicitingfocusedobservationsonthelikelyimpactandinfluenceoftheInternet–notontherespondents’choicesfromthepairsofpredictivestatements.Manytimeswhenrespondents“voted”foronescenariooveranother,theyrespondedintheirelaborationthatbothoutcomesarelikelytoadegreeorthatanoutcomenotofferedwouldbetheirtruechoice.Surveyparticipantswereinformedthat“itislikelyyouwillstrugglewithmostorallofthechoicesandsomemaybeimpossibletodecide;wehopethatwillinspireyoutowriteresponsesthatwillexplainyouranswerandilluminateimportantissues.”Expertswerelocatedintwoways.First,severalthousandwereidentifiedinanextensivecanvassingofscholarly,governmentandbusinessdocumentsfromtheperiod1990‐1995toseewhohadventuredpredictionsaboutthefutureimpactoftheInternet.SeveralhundredofthemparticipatedinthefirstthreesurveysconductedbyPewInternetandElonUniversity,andtheywererecontactedforthissurvey.Second,expertparticipantswereindividuallyselectedduetotheirpositionsasstakeholdersinthedevelopmentoftheInternetanditsapplications.WhilemanyrespondentsareatthepinnacleofInternetleadership,someofthesurveyrespondentsareworkinginthetrenchesofbuildingtheWeb.Mostofthepeopleinthislattersegmentofresponderscametothesurveybyinvitationbecausetheyareonthee‐maillistofthePewInternet&AmericanLifeProjectorareotherwiseknowntotheProject.Theyarenotnecessarilyopinionleadersfortheirindustriesorwell‐knownfuturists,butitisstrikinghowmuch