Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Required Inputs:
You will need to collect financial statements for several reporting periods. If you
want to benchmark the performance against the industry, then you will also need
to collect industry averages. The spreadsheet is setup to capture five reporting
periods (annual, quarterly, monthly). All input fields are highlighted in yellow.
For best results, SEC Filings are suggested since these reports provide more
detail than published financial statements.
Note: A small red triangle in the upper right corner of a cell indicates that a comment has
been inserted. Point your mouse over the cell and the comment will appear.
Worksheets:
This spreadsheet consists of the following worksheets, divided into three sections:
Caution: If you enter less than five years of historical information, certain worksheet
formulas may have to be revised.
11 Pro Forma - Simple Set of pro forma financials using simple assumptions
12 Pro Forma - Regression Set of pro forma financials using linear trending
13 Pro Forma - Exponential Set of pro forma financials using exponential smoothing
14 Scenario Analysis Example of Scenario Analysis and Goal Seek Analysis
15 Budget Analysis Preliminary budget analysis
16 Final Budgets Set of budgets per various assumptions and forecasts.
Note: Some additional worksheets (Answer Reports 1 & 2) may appear in the spreadsheet
due to the running of Solver.
Macros:
No macros have been used in this spreadsheet to give everyone some assurance that no viruses
are contained in the spreadsheet. However, you are free to add your own macros to save time.
Tools > Macro > Record New Macro
Excel Functions:
This spreadsheet uses certain financial functions (such as =TREND) which might not be
found in your version of Microsoft Excel. To take full advantage of financial and statistical
functions, you should install the Add On package titled: Analysis TookPak. Go to the main
tool bar, select Tools => Add-Ins => check the Analysis TookPak option, insert your
Excel CD and install the Analysis ToolPak. Also, you might want to install the Solver
Add-in since this is useful for solving special forecasting issues (such as finding the
optimal exponential factor).
Compatibility:
This spreadsheet was created with Microsoft Excel 2000. Older versions of Excel (such as 97)
may not be compatible with this spreadsheet.
Corrections:
With any “attempt” to build an Excel Model, I can easily make some mistakes.
So if you have suggestions to make the model better, drop me an email
and I’ll be glad to improve the financial model. My email address is: matt@exinfm.com
CPA, CMA, CFM
Wksh2
Wksh4
Wksh6
Wksh8
Wksh10
Wksh12
Wksh14
Wksh16
ed on several worksheets.
for up to five periods.
nts for up to five periods.
ments for up to five periods.
certain worksheet
mple assumptions
ear trending
ponential smoothing
Goal Seek Analysis
2-4 Most Current Period Jan-08 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-5 Previous Period Jan-07 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-6 2nd Previous Period Jan-06 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-7 3rd Previous Period Jan-05 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
2-8 4th Previous Period Jan-04 (1999, July 1998, 6/30/97, etc.)
Working Capital:
Current Assets 7,875 5,025 5,763 6,804 7,511
Current Liabilities 4,312 6,245 7,375 8,590 9,687
Working Capital 3,563 (1,220) (1,612) (1,786) (2,176)
Liquid Capital:
Cash and Cash Equivalents 5,000 950 901 998 870
Marketable Securities 0 15 12 6 11
Accounts Receivable 1,000 1,550 1,830 2,250 3,040
Notes Receivable 0 0 0 0 0
Total Current Liabilities (4,312) (6,245) (7,375) (8,590) (9,687)
Long Term Debt (1,160) (1,750) (2,600) (3,600) (3,950)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Liquid Capital 528 (5,480) (7,232) (8,936) (9,716)
The following valuation indicators are very simple and basic; they are used as quick, rough estmates.
Market Capitalization:
Market Cap - Common Stk $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867
Market Cap - Preferred Stk $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Total Market Capitalization $29,898 $37,281 $48,239 $45,192 $38,867
Present Value:
Normalized Cash Flow Weight %'s 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 30.00% 40.00%
Key Financial Data for
Seniorresources.com
In dollars
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Description 37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Normalized Cash Flow 1,192
Number of Future Periods 15
Required Rate of Return 11.00%
Present Value of Free Cash Flow $8,573
Present Value of Selling Price $315,000 <= estimated selling price $65,836
Present Value of Business $74,409
Revenue Multiplier:
Recent Gross Revenues 27,448
Average Competitive Rev Multiplier 3.14
Value based on Revenue Multiple $86,187
Capitalization of Earnings:
Normalized Net Income Weights % 5.00% 5.00% 25.00% 30.00% 35.00%
Normalized Net Income 6,681
Capitalization Rate 12.00%
Nominal Growth Rate 3.50%
Net Capitalization Rate 8.50%
Value based on Earnings $78,605
Operating Cash Flow to Net Income 1.10 2.05 1.14 1.08 1.11
Liquidity Index:
Cash - Days Removed 0 0 0 0 0
Cash Balance 5,000 950 901 998 870
Cash Balance Total 0 0 0 0 0
Marketable Sec - Days Removed 11 12 16 15 14
Marketable Securities Balance 0 15 12 6 11
Marketable Securities Total 0 180 192 90 154
Receivables - Days Removed 34 30 31 32 36
Receivable Balance 1,000 1,550 1,830 2,250 3,040
Receivable Balance Total 33,585 45,799 56,217 72,213 110,751
Inventory - Days Removed 79 61 67 72 71
Inventory Balance 1,005 1,360 1,650 1,900 2,060
Inventory Balance Total 79,745 83,261 110,092 136,018 146,676
Other - Days Removed 16 22 26 21 19
Other Current Assets Balance 870 1,150 1,370 1,650 1,530
Other Current Assets Total 13,920 25,300 35,620 34,650 29,070
Liquidity Index (Days) 16 31 35 36 38
Z Score:
1.2 x (working capital / total assets) 0.20 (0.07) (0.08) (0.07) (0.08)
1.4 x (retained earn / total assets) 0.34 0.46 0.54 0.65 0.82
3.3 x (EBIT / total assets) 0.60 0.94 1.09 1.06 1.03
.6 x (market value equity / b.v. debt) 15.46 12.78 11.13 7.53 5.90
.999 x (sales / total assets) 0.57 0.78 0.82 0.77 0.80
Z Score 17.17 14.90 13.51 9.94 8.48
Receivable Turnover:
Credit Sales 11,520 15,750 20,080 23,200 26,500
Average Receivable Balance 1,060 1,275 1,690 2,040 2,645
Receivable Turnover 10.9 12.4 11.9 11.4 10.0
Inventory Turnover:
Average Inventory Balance 1,046 1,183 1,505 1,775 1,980
Inventory Turnover 4.6 6.0 5.5 5.1 5.1
Days in Inventory 79 61 67 72 71
We added the following two ratios to assess if the Company has excessive growth:
4-13 Provision for Taxes (790) (1,005) (2,050)
8-17 Trading Ratio - Company 1.24 1.37 1.52
8-18 Trading Ratio - Industry 1.26 1.28 1.31
Source for Benchmark Data: Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios by Leo Troy, Prentice Ha
Periods
Periods
T u rn o v e r R a te
Tur
7.00
6.00
5.00 Inventory
4.00 Turnover -
3.00 Industry
2.00 Inventory
1.00 Turnover -
0.00 Company
37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Periods
D a y s H e ld in In v e n to ry
0.00
37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Periods
G ro s s P ro fit M a rg in
R e t u r n o n C o m m o n E q u it y
Assets -
Company
Periods
Periods
T im e s In te re s t E a rn e d
T im e s
60
50
40 Times Interest
30 Earned -
Industry
20
Times Interest
10
Earned -
0 Company
37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Periods
2.50
Trading Ratio -
2.00 Industry
1.50 Trading Ratio -
1.00 Company
0.50
0.00
37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Periods
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00 Net Sales to Net
0.50 Worth - Industry
0.00
Net Sales to Net
7 3 8 3 8
98 35 71 08 44 Worth - Company
37 38 38 39 39
Periods
ubject company.
n is used to
nchmark data,
y" line will be null
Annual Annual
Period Period
39083 39448
0.49 0.48
0.38 0.40
1.08 1.07
0.79 0.78
8.20 8.30
11.37 10.02
41 41
32 36
4.30 4.38
5.10 5.13
89 82
72 71
1.68 1.69
0.77 0.80
62.00% 63.00%
63.36% 62.96%
19.00% 20.00%
31.98% 28.06%
34.00% 36.00%
27.33% 23.23%
19.00% 20.00%
33.42% 25.89%
34% 32%
57% 53%
39 43
37 35
(2,105) (2,660)
1.44 1.49
1.30 1.27
1.45 1.63
1.22 1.20
Current Ratio -
Industry
Current Ratio -
Company
Company
ison
Receivable
Turnover -
Industry
Receivable
Turnover -
Company
ison
Days to Collect
A/R - Industry
Days to Collect
A/R - Company
son
Inventory
Turnover -
Industry
Inventory
Turnover -
Company
son
Inventory
Turnover -
Industry
Inventory
Turnover -
Company
Days in
Inventory -
Industry
Days in
Inventory -
Company
Asset Turnover
- Industry
Asset Turnover
- Company
Gross Profit
Margin -
Industry
Gross Profit
Margin -
Company
Net Profit
Margin -
Industry
Net Profit
Margin -
Company
8
Return on Total
Assets -
Industry
Return on Total
Assets -
Company
Return on Total
Assets -
Industry
Return on Total
Assets -
Company
on
Return on Total
Assets -
Industry
Return on Total
Assets -
Company
Debt to Equity -
ndustry
Debt to Equity -
Company
Times Interest
Earned -
Industry
Times Interest
Earned -
Company
Times Interest
Earned -
Industry
Times Interest
Earned -
Company
Trading Ratio -
Industry
Trading Ratio -
Company
et Sales to Net
orth - Industry
et Sales to Net
orth - Company
Horizontal Analysis for
Seniorresources.com
Horizontal Analysis expresses change between periods as percentages for each account in
the financial statements. The basic formula for horizontal analysis is:
% change = (most recent period - previous period) / previous period
Growth in Total Equity (Net Worth) 6.11% 14.43% 19.21% 27.00% 2.00%
expressed in percentages
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period Period Period
Account Title 37987 38353 38718 39083 39448
Income Before Extra Ord Items 24.08% 27.91% 28.41% 30.76% 26.18%
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700) (2,600)
Acquisitions in Other Co's (500) (750) (1,200) (650) (350)
Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000) (7,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350) (9,950)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings 26,190 33,222 40,365 47,748 55,126
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500) (500)
Treasury Stock (3,550) (5,550) (7,050) (8,050) (8,550)
Total Equity 25,540 31,572 38,715 46,098 53,976
Before we adopt a regression model, it's a good idea to generate a scatter graph of the actual data
and observe if there is a clear trend for fitting a straight regression line into the data:
T o ta l R e v e n u e s
Total Revenues
30,000
25,000
20,000
Total Revenues
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
37000 38000 39000 40000
Periods
The calculation of linear values is determined by defining the slope of the line and the y intercept:
Order Total Rev Linear
Formula for Linear Trendline: Year variable x actual y Value y
37987 1 12,076 12,683
y=(m*x)+b 38353 2 16,719 16,559
38718 3 21,196 20,435
m: slope of line 39083 4 24,737 24,311
x: independent variable 39448 5 27,448 28,188
b: y intercept 2001 6 32,064
2002 7 35,940
2003 8 39,816
2004 9 43,692
2005 10 47,569
The degree of linear fit with the actual data can be expressed as R Square 0.9888
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100) (2,700)
Acquisitions (500) (750) (1,200) (650)
Purchases of Investments (3,000) (3,500) (4,500) (6,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,000) (7,250) (8,800) (9,350)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings (92,573) (205,647) (319,718) (435,286)
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (4,000) (2,500) (1,500)
Treasury Stock (3,550) (5,550) (7,050) (8,050)
Total Equity (93,223) (207,297) (321,368) (436,936)
External Financing Required (EFR) 8,633 7,752 6,389 5,591
of the actual data
d the y intercept:
Slope Intercept
m factor b factor
3876.20 8806.60
Annual
Period
2005
(369,248)
116,781
89,869
(162,598)
52,262
271
(110,065)
(110,065)
550
0
6
(3)
4
(109,508)
35
1,700
0
1,735
(2,600)
(350)
(7,000)
(9,950)
650
100
0
750
(500)
(7,000)
(500)
0
(8,000)
(124,973)
(514,174)
(639,147)
(639,147)
0
(36,925)
(29,540)
(24,001)
(729,613)
43,000
(5,540)
37,460
15,205
3,862
650
57,177
(672,436)
(62,772)
(44,310)
15
(22,155)
(129,222)
4,500
800
5,300
(123,922)
0
2,200
5,700
(552,351)
(500)
(8,550)
(553,501)
4,987
Home Wksh2 ProForma Financials (Exponential Smoothing / Weighted Moving Average)
Wksh3 Wksh4 Seniorresources.com
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 A set of pro forma (forecasted) financial statements are generated using the results of
Wksh9 Wksh10 the historical analysis in the previous worksheets. A statistical method known as
Wksh11 Wksh12 exponential smoothing is used to plot a trend over historical data. Additionally, we
active Wksh14 can use a weighted moving average to forecast future periods.
Wksh15 Wksh16 Key Point => If you have a general upward historical trend, weighted average will tend
to underestimate forecasted values and vice versa (downward trend = overestimate).
Exponential Comparison
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Total Revenues
- Historical
10,000
T o ta l R ev e
Exponential Comparison
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Total Revenues
- Historical
10,000
Total Revenues
5,000 - Exponential
0 Total Revenues
- Wt Moving Avg
Periods
Planned Investments:
Capital Expenditures (3,500) (3,000) (3,100)
Acquisitions (500) (750) (500)
Purchases of Investments (2,000) (3,000) (3,000)
Total Investment Applications of Cash (6,000) (6,750) (6,600)
Preferred Equity 0 0 0
Common Equity 2,200 2,200 2,200
Additional Paid in Capital 5,700 5,700 5,700
Retained Earnings 17,505 14,505 10,505
Adj for Foreign Currency Transl (5,000) (3,500) (1,000)
Treasury Stock (1,550) (1,550) (1,550)
Total Equity 18,855 17,355 15,855
Square
0
21,557,449
20,043,529
12,538,681
7,349,521
12,297,836
Square
942,841
2,217,121
5,317,636
9,809,424
20,100,607
7,677,526
Revenues
rical
Revenues
rical
Revenues
nential
Revenues
oving Avg
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
26,355 26,340
(9,694) (9,740)
(6,464) (6,859)
10,197 9,740
(3,600) (4,000)
700 700
7,297 6,440
7,297 6,440
520 550
0 0
3 6
(11) 4
14 (5)
7,824 6,995
25 35
1,800 1,700
0 0
1,825 1,735
(3,900) (4,600)
0 0
(1,000) (1,000)
(4,900) (5,600)
4,500 7,000
90 100
0 0
4,590 7,100
(4,000) (6,000)
(4,000) (3,000)
0 0
0 0
(8,000) (9,000)
1,339 1,230
2,159 3,497
3,497 4,728
3,497 4,728
0 0
2,636 2,634
2,108 2,107
1,713 1,712
9,955 11,181
41,600 46,200
(4,990) (5,540)
36,610 40,660
1,905 1,205
2,162 2,162
150 100
40,827 44,127
50,782 55,308
4,480 4,478
3,163 3,161
20 15
1,581 1,580
9,244 9,234
4,950 5,950
800 800
5,750 6,750
14,994 15,984
0 0
2,200 2,200
5,700 5,700
6,505 3,505
0 0
(1,550) (1,550)
12,855 9,855
22,932 29,469
Home Wksh2 Scenario Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Seniorresources.com
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 We can copy our forecast into a new worksheet and do scenario analysis and goal-seek analysis.
Wksh9 Wksh10 Although Microsoft Excel includes Scenario Manager, it can be easier and quicker to simply do our
Wksh11 Wksh12 scenario analysis manually. We can use Goal Seek to find a value for a cell given a corresponding
Wksh13 active formula in another cell.
Wksh15 Wksh16
Annual Annual Annual
Period Period Period
2001 2002 2003
Instead of copying our forecast into this worksheet, we can simply do scenario analysis directly in
the forecast itself.
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
43,190 48,373
(16,893) (18,920)
(10,513) (11,775)
(3,100) (3,000)
700 700
13,384 15,378
44,301 47,569
(15,327) (16,567)
(10,579) (11,522)
(5,166) (5,705)
271 271
13,500 14,046
-5752.08691
-3964.02317
-1096.6
24.6
Page 57
Home Wksh2 Budget Analysis for
Wksh3 Wksh4 Seniorresources.com
Wksh5 Wksh6
Wksh7 Wksh8 Once we complete our forecast, we can summarize and review it before finalizing it
Wksh9 Wksh10 into the form of budgets. We also need to summarize our assumptions that should
Wksh11 Wksh12 go into our final budget. We can start our budget process by reviewing the different
Wksh13 Wksh14 revenue forecast:
active Wksh16
Forecast Comparisons
100,000
Simple Projection
50,000
Model
0
Linear Trend
2001
(50,000) 2002 2003 2004 2005
Model
(100,000) Wt Moving Avg
(150,000) Model
In addition to using linear models for forecasting, we can apply several non-linear (curve) models:
Logarithmic - Used when rate of change in data suddenly shifts upward or downward.
Power - Used when rate of change in data occurs at a specific rate.
Exponential - Used when rate of change is increasing or decreasing at ever higher rates.
Polynomial - Used when rate of change fluctuates with no pattern.
Logarithmic Trend
Actual Predicted
Formula for Logarithmic Trendline x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 (11,242)
y = ( c * LN (x)) - b 2 16,719 (4,587)
3 21,196 (695)
LN: Natural Logarithm 4 24,737 2,067
5 27,448 4,210
6 5,960
7 7,440
8 8,722
9 9,853
10 10,865
Power Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = b * x^c x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 11,951
2 16,719 17,109
3 21,196 21,104
4 24,737 24,493
5 27,448 27,491
6 30,212
7 32,721
8 35,063
9 37,267
10 39,356
Exponential Trendline
Actual Predicted
x factor Values Value y
y = b * EXP ( c * x ) 1 12,076 13,061
2 16,719 16,007
3 21,196 19,618
4 24,737 24,043
5 27,448 29,465
6 36,111
7 44,256
8 54,238
9 66,472
10 81,464
Polynomial Trendline
Actual Predicted
y = (c2 * x^2) + (c1 * x^1) + b x factor Values Value y
1 12,076 11,997
2 16,719 16,902
3 21,196 21,121
4 24,737 24,654
5 27,448 27,502
6 29,664
7 31,140
8 31,930
9 32,035
10 31,454
40,000 Exponentia
Trendline
20,000 Polynomial
Trendline
0
Actual Rev
(20,000)
Periods
Ratio Items
Current Ratio - Budgeted 0.92 0.79 0.76
Current Ratio - Actual 1.83 0.80 0.78
% difference from actual -50% -2% -2%
Mean Absolute Error - An absolute value of forecast errors, does not place weight on the
amount of the error. Calculated as the sum of (actual values - predicted values) / n.
Mean Square Error - Similar to Mean Absolute Error, but does place more emphasis on
the amount of error; i.e. an error of 8 is twice as significant as 4. Calculated as the
sum of (actual values - predicted values)^2 / n.
Root Mean Square Error - To make the Mean Square Error useful and comparable to the Mean
Absolute Error, we can take the square root of the Mean Square Error. We can then use this
as a guide to establish an error limit or standard for flagging unacceptable errors.
Actual Forecasted
Example: Total Revenues Period Revenues Revenues
n: total number of periods 1996 12,076 10,500
1997 16,719 14,500
1998 21,196 22,500
1999 24,737 28,500
2000 27,448 30,000
n => 5 Sum =>
Annual Annual
Period Period
2004 2005
43,190 48,373
(369,258) (369,248)
26,355 26,340
33,170 31,000
24,737 27,448
33,170 31,000
Simple Projection
Model
Linear Trend
Model
Wt Moving Avg
Model
Declining Growth
Model
Historical Data
Slope Intercept
c factor b factor
9600.91841 11242.3365
Slope Intercept
c factor b factor
0.51758981 9.38859823
11951.3346
c2 c1 b
-342.85714 5933.34286 6406.6
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2,067 4,210 5,960 7,440 8,722 9,853 10,865
24,493 27,491 30,212 32,721 35,063 37,267 39,356
24,043 29,465 36,111 44,256 54,238 66,472 81,464
24,654 27,502 29,664 31,140 31,930 32,035 31,454
24,737 27,448
Trends
Logarithmic
Trendline
Power Trendline
Exponential
Trendline
Polynomial
Trendline
Actual Revenues
the degree of error or
es a need to improve
(Wksht 16)
39083 2000 2001
ce more emphasis on
alculated as the
Budget
Period
Ref 2001
Operating Plan
Financial Plan
Planned Investments:
16-22 Capital Expenditures (4,500)
16-23 Acquisitions in Other Co's (350)
16-24 Purchases of Investments (2,500)
16-25 Total Investment Applications of Cash (7,350)
Per above
Per historical financials
Same formula as used in forecast models
Same formula as used in forecast models
Same formula as used in forecast models
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 0.70 1.00
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$D$23 Smoothing Factor must be between 0 and 1 0 $D$23>=$D$23 Binding 0
$D$24 Set Smoothing Factor 1.00 $D$24<=$E$23 Binding 0
Microsoft Excel 9.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [Detail_Analysis.xls]13 - Pro Forma (Exp)
Report Created: 3/16/2002 5:19:05 PM
Adjustable Cells
Cell Name Original Value
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 2.00%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 5.00%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 35.00%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 60.00%
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value
$I$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 100.00%
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50%
$D$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 0.00%
$E$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 1.50%
$F$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods Total weights should add up to => 4.50%
$G$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 34.50%
$H$25 Assign weights to appropriate periods 59.50%
Final Value
59,853,342
Final Value
0.00%
1.50%
4.50%
34.50%
59.50%