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WARMING
Increase in the global average surface temperature resulting
from enhancement of the greenhouse effect, primarily by
air pollution. In 2007 the UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change forecasted that by 2100 global average
surface temperatures would increase 3.2 – 7.2 °F (1.8 – 4.0
°C), depending on a range of scenarios for greenhouse gas
emissions, and stated that it was now 90 percent certain that
most of the warming observed over the previous half
century could be attributed to greenhouse gas emissions
produced by human activities (i.e., industrial processes and
transportation). Many scientists predict that such an
increase in temperature would cause polar ice caps and
mountain glaciers to melt rapidly, significantly raising the
levels of coastal waters, and would produce new patterns
and extremes of drought and rainfall, seriously disrupting
food production in certain regions. Other scientists
maintain that such predictions are overstated. The 1992
Earth Summit and the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
attempted to address the issue of global warming, but in
both cases the efforts were hindered by conflicting national
economic agendas and disputes between developed and
developing nations over the cost and consequences of
reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.
A phenomenon (otherwise known as ‘climate change’ or
‘the greenhouse effect’) whereby solar radiation that has
reflected back off the surface of the earth remains trapped
at atmospheric levels, due to the build-up of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases, rather than being emitted back into
space. The effect of this is a warming of the global
atmosphere.
Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of the
United States. The climatic impacts from aerosol forcing
could have a large effect on climate through the indirect
effect.
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of
global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially
counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.[50]
The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by
volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a cooling
effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight.
The effects of the products of fossil fuel combustion—CO2
and aerosols—have largely offset one another in recent
decades, so that net warming has been due to the increase
in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such as methane.[51]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing
solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the
radiation budget.[52] Sulfate aerosols act as cloud
condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have more
and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect solar
radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger
droplets.[53] This effect also causes droplets to be of more
uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and makes
the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.[54] Indirect
effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform clouds, and
have very little radiative effect on convective clouds.
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether
it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols
directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the atmosphere
and cools the surface. In isolated areas with high soot
production, such as rural India, as much as 50% of surface
warming due to greenhouse gases may be masked by
atmospheric brown clouds.[55] Atmospheric soot always
contributes additional warming to the climate system.
When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic
regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly heat the
surface.[56] The influences of aerosols, including black
carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics,
particularly in Asia, while the effects of greenhouse gases
are dominant in the extratropics and southern hemisphere.
[57]
Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation
Solar variation over the last thirty years.
Variations in solar output have been the cause of past
climate changes.[58] The consensus among climate scientists
is that changes in solar forcing probably had a slight
cooling effect in recent decades. This result is less certain
than some others, with a few papers suggesting a warming
effect.[29][59][60][61]
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in
different ways. While both increased solar activity and
increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the
troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm the
stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should
cool the stratosphere.[29] Observations show that
temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since
1979, when satellite measurements became available.
Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite
era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater
uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[62]
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is
that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that
may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei
and thereby affect the climate.[63] Other research has found
no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic
rays.[64][65] A recent study concluded that the influence of
cosmic rays on cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower
than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to
be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.[66]