Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Investment Strategy
Mid Year Outlook Conference Call
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Rose colored
glasses?
Economic Outlook | 5
Where Have We Heard This Before?
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
“The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems
in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.”
-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
Testimony to Joint Economic Committee, March 2007
“The U.S. economy appears likely to expand at a moderate pace over the
second half of 2007, with growth then strengthening a bit in 2008 to a rate
close to the economy’s underlying trend.”
Economic Outlook | 6
The “Hostess Twinkie” Recovery
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Unsustainable
deficit spending
Back in recession
territory
Economic Outlook | 11
The Second Wave
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Mountain of
adjustable resets
700%
Top 25 Global Banks: Total Assets to Home Country GDP
594%
600%
500%
400%
337%
300%
237%
200% 180%
155%
0%
Source: JPMorgan
Economic Outlook | 15
Eurozone Liquidity
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Is this a
bubble?
Portfolio
• Disciplined Portfolio Construction is vital to consistent alpha.
Construction
Investment Implications | 19
It’s A Whole Different World Out There!
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
2009 2010
Reflation Deflation
Investment Implications | 20
Investors Should Own Quality
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
6.5% Long-Term
6.0%
Historical U.S. Equity
5.0%
Above average
4.0%
returns from low
3.0% risk equities.
2.0% 1.9%
1.0%
0.0%
-0.6%
-1.0%
U.S. Equities (Large Cap) U.S. Equities (Small Cap) U.S. High Quality
50.0%
40.0%
You are
30.0%
34.5%
here!!
20.0%
15.8%
10.0%
1.2% Profitability
0.0%
Beta Equity Firm
-10.0%
Valuation Valuation -14.3%
-20.0%
Early Expansion Late Expansion Early Contraction Late Contraction
Source: ShadowStats.com
Investment Implications | 25
Core CPI Remains at Lowest Level Since 1966 . . .
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Dónde está
inflation?
Investment Implications | 30
Gold Is Not a Bubble . . . Yet!
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
WTI 882%
Nikkei 463%
Gold 389%
Source: Clusterstock
Investment Implications | 31
Broyhill’s Bottom Line
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Buckle your seatbelts kids. We are headed for a bumpy ride ahead. We are
positioned accordingly, as the Great Recovery appears to be a big fat
D.U.D.D.
Double Dip in the economy and in domestic home prices as we pass the
peak effects of monetary policy and fiscal stimulus at the same time the
inventory bounce begins to fade ahead of major tax increases next year.
Debt levels across the private and public sectors have reached a choking
point, in which greater levels of debt act as larger and larger speed bumps
for economic growth.
Investment Implications | 32
Contact Information
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
Contact Information | 33
Disclosures
CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION
This material has been prepared solely for the purposes of illustration and discussion. “Broyhill Asset Management” is the marketing name
for the investment management business conducted by Broyhill Asset Management, LLC. and its affiliates. Broyhill Asset Management, LLC
is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Private investment vehicles are offered through Broyhill Wakin General Partners LLC, Surety
Capital Management LLC, and Broyhill Strategic Partners LLC, and are only offered by delivery of confidential offering memorandum and
subscription materials to eligible investors who meet certain statutory and/or regulatory criteria. Each General Partner is a separate legal
entity and is affiliated with Broyhill Asset Management, LLC through common ownership and control.
Under no circumstances should the information contained herein be used or considered as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy
any security. Any security offering is subject to certain investor eligibility criteria as detailed in the applicable offering documents. The
information contained herein is confidential and may not be reproduced or circulated in whole or in part. The information is in summary
form for convenience of presentation, it is not complete and should not be relied upon as such.
Any information, data, statement, opinions, or projections made herein may contain certain forward looking statements, projections, and
information that are based on the beliefs of Broyhill Asset Management as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available
to, Broyhill Asset Management. Such statements reflect the view of Broyhill Asset Management with respect to future events and are subject
to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions (including, but not limited to, changes in general economic and business conditions, interest
rate and securities market fluctuations, competition from within and without the investment industry, new products and services in the
investment industry, changes in customer profiles, and changes in laws and regulations applicable to Broyhill Asset Management). Should
one or more of these other risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary
materially from those described herein.
All information, including performance information, has been prepared in good faith; there are no representations or warranty expresses or
implied, as to the accuracy or completeness, of the information, and nothing herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to
the past or future performance. This material may include information that is based, in part or in full, on hypothetical assumptions, models,
and/or other analysis (which may not necessarily be described herein), no representations or warranty is made as to the reasonableness of
any such assumptions, models, or analysis. The information set forth herein was gathered from various sources which are believed, but not
guaranteed, to be reliable. Unless stated otherwise, any opinions expressed herein are current as of the date hereof and are subject to change
at any time. Accordingly, neither Broyhill Asset Management not its principals or affiliates make any representations as to the timeliness of
any information in this presentation.
Disclosures| 34