opportunities, establishing a pattern o internal rural-urbanmigration.
While such domestic rural-urban migration accounts for much of the migration in the agricultural sector, there arealso cases of agricultural migration beyond national borders
to ll jobs in developed countries. Moving workers rather than farm commodities over borders helps to increase thevalue of farmland in richer countries, and helps to retainother jobs at the higher end of the value chain, such asfarm-related packing and transportation jobs, in these coun
tries. Remittances from such work to the home countries of migrant workers can also offset healthcare and educationcosts for workers’ children in developing countries, and it
may further ease out-migration from the agricultural sector
in developing countries by helping youth to nd non-farmopportunities.Perhaps the best known case of international migrationfrom the agricultural sector is Mexico-United States mi
gration, which has its roots in U.S. government approvedrecruitment of rural Mexicans to ll U.S. farm jobs be
tween 1942 and 1964. Similar patterns may be observed inEurope, Japan, Korea, Australia and New Zealand, wherelabor-intensive agricultural production is sustained throughthe import of agricultural labor from developing countries.The production of strawberries in southern Spain, whichemploys 50,000 to 60,000 workers, mostly migrants from North Africa, Eastern Europe, and Latin America (Plewa,2009), is a case in point. Additionally, there are also severalmiddle-income developing countries that admit or toleratemigrants from lower-wage countries to help produce farmcommodities for export. Thailand for example, has morethan a million workers from neighboring countries em
ployed in agriculture and sheries.
Such patterns o migration within the agricultural sector,both domestic rural-urban migration and internationalmigration, are likely to be exacerbated by global warming.
Global warming, agriculture and patterns of migration
Tere are three major ways in which global warming couldaect agriculture and migration patterns. First, globalwarming is likely to generate more severe storms such ashurricanes that destroy housing, erode land and encour-age migration, at least until recovery. Second, there may bemore competition or land and water, especially in arid ar-eas with rapidly growing populations, such as sub-SaharanArica. Rising temperatures are associated with more wateravailable or irrigation, but also increased variability in pre-cipitation, so that drier areas may experience more severedroughts and wetter areas more oods. Competition orland and water can lead to conict and migration, as whenherders come into conict with crop armers.Tird, gradually rising temperatures are likely to shi areaso viable and optimal ood production, making agricultureless productive in densely populated areas in developingcountries and more productive in sparsely populated areaso industrial countries. Indeed, several economic modelsproject that global warming will have more eects on thedistribution o arm production rather than on global armoutput (Darwin et al., 1995; World Bank, 2008: 16-17).Te areas in which agricultural productivity is expected todecrease because o climate change include sub-SaharanArica, South Asia, and parts o South America, while agri-cultural productivity may increase in currently colder areassuch as Canada and Russia (Darwin et al., 1995; WorldBank, 2008: 16-17).Agriculture and migration will also be aected by othertrends, including a rapidly rising demand or meat inmiddle-income developing countries that can acceleratedeorestation as land is cleared or pasture. Deorestationmay accelerate climate change; increase demand or bio-uels that can push up ood prices and encourage cuttingdown orests or new armland; and create a rising demandor seaood that encourages production o sh, shrimp,and other seaood in coastal areas, sometimes in ways thatpermit increased storm-related damage in coastal areas.Deorestation to make land available or crops and livestock and to produce biouels could accelerate global warming.Deorestation in developing countries already contributesone-quarter o greenhouse gas emissions, and hal o thisdeorestation occurs to expand agriculture (World Bank,2008: 17). Biouels promise to reduce the use o ossil uels,but so ar they are not economically viable without subsidiesand may have negative side eects, rom rising ood pricesto more deorestation to create land on which to producecrops to turn into ethanol.
Study Team on Climate-Induced Migration