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Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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This Time is Different:
Eight Centuries of Financial Folly

Carmen M. Reinhart, University of Maryland, NBER, and CEPR
Kenneth S. Rogoff, Harvard University and NBER
(Princeton University Press, forthcoming 2009)

Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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This talk is based on the following
references (in chronological order):

Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Is the 2007 U.S.
Subprime Crisis So Different? An International Historical
Comparison,” American Economic Review, Vol. 98 No. 2, May
2008, 339–344. (RR, 2008a)

Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “Banking Crises:
An Equal Opportunity Menace,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff),NBER
Working Paper14587, December 2008. (RR, 2008d)
Reinhart, Carmen M., and Kenneth S. Rogoff, “The Aftermath of
Financial Crises,” (with Kenneth S. Rogoff), American Economic
Review, forthcoming, May 2009. (RR, 2009)
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Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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Recent examples of the “this time is
different syndrome”
US in the run-up to the 2007 financial crisis:This time was

different because of globalization, the technology boom, our
superior financial system, our better understanding of monetary
policy, the phenomenon of securitized debt. Sure, housing
prices doubled, equity prices soared, all fueled by record
borrowing from abroad. But it is not like the United States can
have an emerging market type financial crisis…

Asia following the Mexican 1994-1995 crisis:Sure, Latin

America may experience recurrent problems, but Asia has high
savings rates and superior work ethic (not to mention Asian
values). Record current account deficits owe to high investment
rates—not consumption booms. Financial crises are other
people’s problems.

Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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And a not so recent example…
more to follow
(courtesy of Professor Peter Lindert)
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Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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An advertisement for:
Reinhart and Rogoff, 2009
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Where are we at present in a historical
global context?
Proportion of Countries with Banking Crises, 1900-2008
Weighted by Their Share of World Income
05
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
Percentofco
unties
The Great
Depression
Emerging Markets, Japan the
Nordic Countries, and US(S&L)
World War I
The Panic
of 1907
The First Global Financial Crisis of 21st
Ce ntury
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