Agriculture in Changing Climate –

India’s Quest for Food Security in

Where does India Stand?
Changing Climate

Presentation based on inputs from

Ministry of Agriculture, Rural Development, Environment and Forests and
Prof Pramod Agarwal, IARI

SAARC Workshop on Climate Change and Natural Disasters

Kathmandu, Aug 21-22, 2008
1 (Source: R Watson , World Bank 2005) 2

A Pyramid
CC Impacts on Indian Agriculture –
India – a home to >1000 Million
A Pluralistic Society Literature
300 Million Indians
• Resource surplus 1991)) – showed that an increase of 2oC in
 Sinha and Swaminathan (1991
• Well-connected
temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high
areas;; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce
yield areas
wheat yield by
by00.45 ton/ha
ton/ha..
Climate Sensitive
400 Million Indians Climate Refugees · Rao and Sinha (1994
1994)) – showed that wheat yields could decrease between
-..
• Living on Margins 300 Million Indians 28 to 68
68%% without considering the COCO22 fertilization effects
effects;; and would
• Accessed • Poor range between +4 to -34
34%
% after considering CO2 fertilization effects
effects..
• Under-nourished  1993)) – using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC
Aggarwal and Sinha (1993
• Un-reached temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places
places..
(Settled in
Rainfed, floodplains, forests..) · Lat et al
al.. (1996
1996)) – concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be
India’s State of Agriculture able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields
yields..
Roughly 700 Million dependent on Agriculture, Fisheries, Forests · Saseendran et alal.. (2000
2000)) – showed that for every one degree rise in
GDP from Agriculture : 20 % (2007), 42 % (1980)
Average farm size: : 1 to5 ha temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%.
Home to largest number of poor, undernourished & food insecured  Parikh & Kumar (2007
2007))– Climate change impact on Indian agriculture ...
Climate sensitive Agriculture
3 4

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disaster Induced

Wheat Production in India Food Security Constraints

80 CONSTRAINING FACTORS (%)

75 DISASTER VULNERABILITY Dr ought
• Drought: 68% of net sow n area Agr i. Mgt. 12%
70 (116 districts in 14 States) Pr actices Floods
Production , Mtons

25% 5%
65 • Floods: 40 Mha in 8 maj or riv er
v alleys Post
60 • Degraded land: 175 Mha Har vest
10%
55
• Annual soil loss: 5334 Mt (64% as
riv er deposit)
Nutr ient
50 • Annual Nutrient loss: 5.4 to 8.4 Mt Str ess
Land 8%
• Crop Pests : 5-10 times more
45 Degr adation
susceptible, compared to
temperate countries 20% Cr op Pests /
40 Diseases
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20%
Year

Source: Aggarwal et al. (2002) Need to Address Holistically

5 6
 Creeping Catastrophe.. Food Security – At the Cross Roads
Sustainable Food Security: A Life Cycle Approach
1. Climate Change 2. Depleting Resource base
- Physical, Economic, Social and Ecological access to balanced
• Impact on agriculture
• Ground W ater irrigated area increased by diet & safe drinking w ater
Levels of adaptive capacity : Indian vs. US farmer 105% in last 2 decades
0 • Surface-water irrigated land rose by only
28% over the same period
- 0.2 Climate Change Globalisation: WTO regime
- 0.4
1970 1994
- 0.6
Rising Population More Demand for Limited Water
- 0.8

-1
Increasing Cost of Food Inadequate Support &
- 1.2
Cultivation Security Infrastructure
- 1.4
- 1.6
Low Productivity Ecological Degradation
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
3. Uncalibrated Globalisation
(Source: R Mendelsohn & A Dinar, 1999, World Bank)
Risk – Flood, Drought, Pest & Diseases…
4. ….
Agriculture, the oldest & largest land use enterprise, constitutes
7 the backbone of livelihood security system of rural India 8

Responses to climate variability Adaptation Options

 Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts
 The most effective response strategy is imbedded into the multi-
multi-
sectoral programmes viz., food security, poverty alleviation,  These need research and policy support
disaster risk reduction and sustainable development  Costs of adaptation and mitigation are unknown but likely
to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher
“Public investment
 Specific areas of concern include: programmes have to
- Agriculture be“climate proof
proof“
“ Adaptation Measure Adjustment Time (years)
- Water resources and public Variety Adoption 3-14
development
- Health and sanitation programmes should Dams and Irrigation 50-100
- Coastal Zones have focus on Variety Development 8-15
- Forests strengthening the
Tillage Systems 10-12
- Extreme weather events adaptation capacities
of the rural poor.” Opening New Lands 3-10
Irrigation Equipment 20-25
Fertilizer Adoption 10
(Source: Parikh & Kumar 2007)
9 10

Relative expenditures on major Adaptation

Percentage of Adaptation Expenditure to Total Fiscal schemes by thematic area
Expenditure and GDP
Cr op Im prove ment &
Crop Improvement
Re sea rch
& Re se arch
7.9 3%

Drought Proofing
12
Drought Proofing
Health
10 1 5.9 7%
V alu e o f E xp e n d itu r e

Expenditure on adaptation as
8 % of total Govt. expenditure Risk Financing
Expenditure on adaptation as
6 % of GDP He alth Disaster
1 3.77%
Poverty Alle ivia tion a nd Manage me nt
4 Livelihood pre se rvation
59 .3 4% Fore stry
Risk Financing
1.63%
2
Poverty Alleiv iation
Dis as te r Ma nageme nt and Liv elihood
0 0 .38 % preserv ation
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Fore stry
0 .97 %
Year Source: MoEF, 2007

Source: MoEF, 2007

11 12
 Major Missions Selected Indian Rural Development Programmes

Ministry of National Watershed Development Programme for US $ 60

1. National Food Security Mission – Rs 25,000 Crore Agriculture Rainfed Areas Million /yr
Ministry of • National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme US $ 825
- Enhancing Agricultural Productivity Rural Million/yr
Development • Drought Prone Area Programme US $ 96
- Adaptive Agriculture Million/yr

- Agriculture/Weather Insurance (Varsha

(Varsha • Desert Development Programme US $ 70
Million/yr
Bima)….
Bima )…. • Integrated Watershed Development Project US $ 115
Million/yr
2. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change • Command Area Development & Water Management
Ministry of Programme US $191
 8 National Missions.. Water Million/yr
Resources
• National Project for Repair, Renovate and Restore of US $207
 National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture Water bodies Million/yr
 National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate National Bank • Watershed Development Fund US $ 160
Agriculture & • Rural Infrastructure Development Fund Million/yr
Change Rural US 2260
13 Development Million/yr 14

Expanding Scope for Agriculture Improving Agromet Services

- Inputs to Rural Development Programmes Densifying Weather Observation Network

• Harness culturable wastelands Automatic Weather Station Space Observations Doppler Weather Radar
• Generate Local Employment
• Bring 30% under green cover

--Dharia Commission (90s)

Area brought under Cultivation EO instrument capabilities

~ 35 Mha can be made cultivable
• Radiometers & Spectrometers
• Atmospheric Sounders
• Total wastelands Satellite • Rain Radars
~ 64 Mha (2000) Transmitter • High resolution imagers • Continuous monitoring of
Met. • Polarimetric radiometers
~ 56 Mha (2003) severe weather events
Sensor • Altimeters/Scatterometer s
Data • Radar network for entire
• Increase in
Agrohorticulture, coastal areas, NE region,
Dedicated INSAT-3A & KALPANA
plantation, … Data major cities, …
Team/ User DP software installed at IMD
February 2002 Processing
February 1996 Dept. Center INSAT 3D
Development of Techniques

15 To improve the farmers advisories 16

Adaptation Practices: Grassroots Innovation… Rain-fed Agriculture: Improving Productivity

Participatory Watershed Development
“The issue is not how much water you have- It is how you
Sujala
learn to use, store and relate to that water. In other words,
Road Govt. of Karnataka
the culture of dealing with water is far more important Par cel
PRA

Water
Dr ain

than any issue of technology “ Soil

LU/LC
Ph I Impact Assessment
Incr eased …
• cr op yields (24%)
-Anil Agarwal, Center for Science and Environment Satellite Inputs (Resource Maps)
Field Survey

• cr op diver sity (2-5 to 4-9)

• household income
(Rs 10-13K to Rs 15-25K)
A culture of dealing with water -Aide Memoire of World Bank, June,
2005
Implementation

Ralegaon Siddhi, Maharashtra “a model of excellence and

should be promoted widely for
(Avg annual rainfall < 300 mm): other projects to follow”
“
Irrigation increased from 80 to 1200 acre; Community Participation – World Bank Review Team
GIS / MIS
3 crops every year worth Rs. 600,000. Watershed –
Ralegaon Siddhi
A Bottom-up Approach
17 18
 Adaptive Watershed Dev..
A Result on the Ground

Story of food-secured
Sabina

No more food insecured;

Holds a bank account;
Has marketable skilled;
Finds voices in decision making;
Children in schools…

Thank You…. 19