NBP/RCG (FREIBURG)
A fiscal outlook for Poland usingGenerational Accounts
Discussion Paper
Janusz Jabłonowski (NBP)**Christoph Müller (RCG/Freiburg) ***Bernd Raffelhüschen (RCG/Freiburg)***
Abstract
This paper should not be reported as representing the official views of the NBP.During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older andolder as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasinglife expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confrontedrather severely by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in theearly nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation.We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long termstability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves specialattention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension systemshall stabilise in the long term.
Key words: Generational Accounting, Fiscal sustainability, Fiscal policy, Poland, Pension reformJEL Classification: H50, H55, H60, H68, J10, H30
*
We would like to thank Tomasz J
ę
drzejowicz, Iga Magda, Joanna Stachura, Paweł Strzelecki, Anna Wronka,Arne Leifels, Christian Hagist, Jasmin Häcker, Stefan Moog and Johannes Vatter for valuable comments. Allerrors remain our own.
**
National Bank of Poland, Swietokrzyska 11/21, 00-919 Warsaw, Poland (Phone: +48-22-653-26-47, janusz.jablonowski@nbp.pl)
***
Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge (Research Center for Generational Contracts), Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg (Freiburg University), D-79085 Freiburg, Germany (Phone: +49-761-203-9226,christoph.mueller@vwl.uni-freiburg.de)
.
2
List of contents:Abstract
............................................................................................................................... 1
List of abbreviations
........................................................................................................... 61. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 72. The methodology of the Generational Accounting .......................................................... 92.1. Methodology ........................................................................................................... 92.2. Indicators ...............................................................................................................113. Assumptions and data ...................................................................................................133.1. Methodological assumptions ..................................................................................133.2. Data .......................................................................................................................153.2.1. Population projection ..........................................................................................153.2.2. Fiscal data ..........................................................................................................183.2.3. Micro-profiles ......................................................................................................203.2.4. Growth and discount rates ..................................................................................213.2.5. Limitations of the GA method ..............................................................................224. The sustainability of the Polish fiscal system .............................................................264.1. Pensions paid by ZUS ............................................................................................264.1.1. Brief description of the NDC scheme ..................................................................264.1.2. Computation procedure for NDC pensions..........................................................284.1.2.1. Computation procedure for bridging pensions .................................................374.1.2.2. Computation procedure for miners’ pensions ..................................................394.1.2.3. Computation procedure for minimum pensions ...............................................414.1.2.4. Generational Accounts for the ZUS pension fund ............................................434.1.2.5. Annual Cash Flows .........................................................................................484.1.2.6. Fiscal gaps and sustainability indicators for the ZUS pension fund..................504.2. Other types of social insurance provided by ZUS ...................................................534.2.1. Disability Insurance Fund ....................................................................................534.2.2. Computation procedure for disability benefits .....................................................554.2.3. Sickness insurance fund .....................................................................................574.2.4. Computation procedure for sickness and maternity leave benefits ......................574.2.5. Insurance fund for accident at work ....................................................................584.2.6. Generational Accounts, Fiscal Gaps and Sustainability Indicators for other typesof social insurance provided by ZUS .................................................................................594.3. Social insurance scheme for farmers .....................................................................654.3.1. Computation procedure for farmers’ pensions, disability, and survivors’ benefits 66
3
4.3.2. Generational Accounts, Fiscal Gaps and Sustainability Indicators for farmers’social benefits system .......................................................................................................684.4. Civil servants’ social benefits system .....................................................................714.4.1. Computation procedure for civil servants’ pensions, disability, and survivors’benefits 714.4.2. Generational Accounts for civil servants’ social benefits system .........................724.4.3. Fiscal Gaps and Sustainability Indicators for civil servants’ social benefits system734.5. The healthcare system ...........................................................................................774.5.1. Computation procedure for healthcare system ....................................................774.5.2. Generational Accounts for the NFZ .....................................................................804.5.3. Fiscal Gaps and Sustainability Indicators for the NFZ .........................................834.6. Education ...............................................................................................................874.6.1. Generational Accounts for education ..................................................................874.6.2. Fiscal Gaps and Sustainability Indicators for education ......................................905. The sustainability analyses of the entire public finances ................................................915.1. Generational Accounts for Poland ..........................................................................915.2. Fiscal gaps and sustainability indicators for Poland ................................................926. The conclusions and outlook .........................................................................................99Appendix 1 ......................................................................................................................... 102Appendix 2: Applied Micro Profiles ..................................................................................... 104References: ........................................................................................................................ 111
Search History:
Result 00 of 00
00 results for result for
p.
A Fiscal Outlook for Poland Using Generational Accounts
363
Reads
5
Readcasts
14
Embed Views
More From This User
Notes
Load more
