A fiscal outlook for Poland usingGenerational Accounts
Janusz Jabłonowski (NBP)**Christoph Müller (RCG/Freiburg) ***Bernd Raffelhüschen (RCG/Freiburg)***
This paper should not be reported as representing the official views of the NBP.During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older andolder as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasinglife expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confrontedrather severely by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in theearly nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation.We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long termstability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves specialattention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension systemshall stabilise in the long term.
Key words: Generational Accounting, Fiscal sustainability, Fiscal policy, Poland, Pension reformJEL Classification: H50, H55, H60, H68, J10, H30
We would like to thank Tomasz J
drzejowicz, Iga Magda, Joanna Stachura, Paweł Strzelecki, Anna Wronka,Arne Leifels, Christian Hagist, Jasmin Häcker, Stefan Moog and Johannes Vatter for valuable comments. Allerrors remain our own.
National Bank of Poland, Swietokrzyska 11/21, 00-919 Warsaw, Poland (Phone: +48-22-653-26-47, email@example.com)
Forschungszentrum Generationenverträge (Research Center for Generational Contracts), Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg (Freiburg University), D-79085 Freiburg, Germany (Phone: +49-761-203-9226,firstname.lastname@example.org)