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C$US$MXNBRLARSZARINRA$SEKNOK£€RUBCNYHK$NZ$PLNCHF¥
In recent weeks the US growth outlook has deteriorated again, which translates into weaker USD orecasts.
Some scal/political worst-case scenarios in the Euro-zone have not materialised, although near-term risks remain.
Talk about reserve diversication into JPY and reduced scope or intervention create JPY upside risks.
The CHF may strengthen urther, linked to sticky sae-haven fows, strong growth and unwinding risks or CHF unding trades.
The Global FX Monthly Analyst
July 2010
 
The Global FX Monthly AnalystGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchJuly 2010
Contents
Overview
Recommended FX Trade Ideas iMajor FX Forecasts iiFeature iii
G3
US Dollar 1Euro 3Japanese Yen 5
Europe, Africa & Middle East
British Pound 7Norwegian Kroner 9Polish Zloty 11Swedish Krona 13Swiss Franc 15South African Rand 17Turkish Lira 19Czech Koruna 21Hungarian Forint 22Egyptian Pound 23Israeli Shekel 24Russian Ruble 25Interest Rate Forecasts: Europe 26
Americas
Brazilian Real 27Canadian Dollar 29Mexican Peso 31Argentine Peso 33Chilean Peso 34Colombian Peso 35Peruvian New Sol 36Venezuela Bolivar 37Interest Rate Forecasts: Americas 38
Asia
Australian Dollar 39Chinese Yuan 41Hong Kong Dollar 42Indian Rupee 43Indonesian Rupiah 44Korean Won 45Malaysian Ringgit 46New Zealand Dollar 47Philippine Peso 48Singapore Dollar 49Taiwan Dollar 50Thai Baht 51Vietnamese Dong
 
52
FX Analytics
GS Sentiment Index 53FX Currents 56GS Trade Weighted Indices 58Risk Adjusted Returns 60GS Anecdotal Flows 61GSDEER 63Key Economic Data 65Policy Rate Forecasts 69GS FX Forecasts versus Consensusand Forwards 70Exchange Rate Forecasts 71
 
i
The Global FX Monthly AnalystGoldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy ResearchJuly 2010
Recommended FX Trade Ideas
Please see our
Global Markets Daily Comment 
and
Trade Updates 
for changes in these live trading strategies, as theychange in line with market developments and our views.
Tactical FX Trade Performance Fiscal Year 2010
NumberCum ReturnAvg ReturnAvg DurationAll Trades
22 -5.3% -0.24% 24 days
Profitable
10 25.1% 2.51% 27 days
Loss-Making
12 -30.4% -2.54% 21 days
FX Ideas in our Top Trades for 2010
TradeEntry LevelTarget2. Long Russian Equities (RDXUSD), FX unhedged
1645.9 2050
3. Long GBP/NZD
2.29 2.60
7. Long 'Growth' FX Current
103.5 111.8
8. Long PLN/JPY
32.1 37.5
Last 20 Tactical FX Recommendations
Open QuoteClose QuoteReturnDayTimeDayTime
Short CHF SEK 01-Dec-09 "17:00" 08-Jan-10 "02:57" 6.9178 7.0145 -1.37%Short USD INR 01-Dec-09 "17:00" 18-Dec-09 "17:00" 46.2100 45.5200 1.52%Long GBP USD 01-Dec-09 "17:00" 08-Dec-09 "17:00" 1.6624 1.6079 -3.28%Short USD MXN 04-Dec-09 "14:46" 18-Dec-09 "17:00" 12.5497 12.8396 -2.26%Long EUR USD 16-Dec-09 "14:35" 01-Feb-10 "11:37" 1.4545 1.4279 -1.83%Long EUR AUD 13-Jan-10 "10:49" 01-Feb-10 "11:37" 1.5693 1.5788 0.61%Short USD BRL 01-Feb-10 "11:37" 17-Mar-10 "19:43" 1.8870 1.7660 7.75%Short USD PLN 11-Feb-10 "11:56" 24-Mar-10 "23:10" 2.9356 2.9163 0.66%Long (MYR,IDR,INR) JPY 12-Feb-10 "03:09" 01-Apr-10 "08:41" 100.0161 108.4706 8.45%Long EUR USD 12-Mar-10 "09:51" 24-Mar-10 "17:00" 1.3735 1.3353 -2.78%Short USD TWD 31-Mar-10 "01:47" 21-May-10 "17:00" 31.7400 32.1500 -1.28%Short USD SGD 01-Apr-10 "02:42" 15-Apr-10 "12:55" 1.3976 1.3723 1.84%Long TRY BRL 14-Apr-10 "14:51" 17-Jun-10 "14:45" 1.1778 1.1391 -3.78%Short EUR GBP 21-Apr-10 "21:23" 12-May-10 "11:04" 0.8695 0.8495 2.35%Short USD MXN 07-May-10 "16:56" 02-Jul-10 "18:16" 12.8608 13.0818 -1.69%Long (MYR,IDR,PHP JPY 10-May-10 "01:59" 20-May-10 "17:00" 100.0000 96.5287 -3.47%Short USD PLN 10-May-10 "13:52" 21-May-10 "17:00" 3.1110 3.2578 -4.51%Short USD CNY (exp. 10/6/11) 10-Jun-10 "15:24" 14-Jul-10 "17:00" 6.7550 6.6750 1.20%Short USD KRW 21-Jun-10 "15:18" 25-Jun-10 "17:00" 1173.5000 1215.1000 -3.42%Short USD PHP 21-Jun-10 "15:22" 24-Jun-10 "17:00" 45.7500 46.1000 -0.76%Long AUD CAD 08-Jul-10 "15:48" 14-Jul-10 "17:00" 0.9105 0.9116 0.12%Short USD SGD 13-Jul-10 "00:31" 14-Jul-10 "17:00" 1.3814 1.3732 0.60%
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