Technology Roadmap
Solar photovoltaic energy
203520402045
2050
Dm
This report is the result of a collaborative effortbetween the nternational nergy gency (),its eber countries and various consultantsand experts worldwide. Users of this report shallake their own independent business decisionsat their own risk and, in particular, withoutundue reliance on this report. Nothing in thisreport shall constitute professional advice, and norepresentation or warranty, express or iplied, isade in respect of the copleteness or accuracyof the contents of this report. The acceptsno liability whatsoever for any direct or indirectdaages resulting fro any use of this report or itscontents. wide range of experts reviewed drafts,however, the views expressed do not necessarilyrepresent the views or policy of the or itsindividual eber countries.
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The nternational nergy gency (),an autonoous agency, was established inNoveber 1974. ts andate is two-fold:to proote energy security aongst its eber countries through collective response to physicaldisruptions in oil supply and to advise eber countries on sound energy policy.The carries out a coprehensive prograeof energy co-operation aong 28 advancedeconoies, each of which is obliged to hold oilstocks equivalent to 90 days of its net iports.The gency ais to:• ecure eber countries’ access to reliableand aple supplies of all fors of energy;in particular, through aintaining effectiveeergency response capabilities in case of oilsupply disruptions.• Proote sustainable energy policies that spur econoic growth and environental protectionin a global context – particularly in tersof reducing greenhouse-gas eissions thatcontribute to cliate change.• prove transparency of international arketsthrough collection and analysis of energy data.• upport global collaboration on energytechnology to secure future energy supplies anditigate their environental ipact, includingthrough iproved energy efficiency anddevelopent and deployent of low-carbontechnologies.• Find solutions to global energy challengesthrough engageent and dialogue with non-eber countries, industry, internationalorganisations and other stakeholders. eber countries are: ustralia, ustria,Belgiu, anada, the zech epublic, Denark,Finland, France, erany, reece, ungary, reland,taly, Japan, Korea (epublic of), uxebourg,the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland,Portugal, the lovak epublic, pain, weden,witzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdo and theUnited tates. The uropean oission alsoparticipates in the work of the .
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Foreword
Foreword
Current trends in energy supply and useare patently unsustainable – economically,environmentally and socially. Without decisiveaction, energy-related emissions of CO
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will morethan double by 2050 and increased oil demand willheighten concerns over the security of supplies. Wecan and must change our current path, but this willtake an energy revolution and low-carbon energytechnologies will have a crucial role to play. Energyefficiency, many types of renewable energy, carboncapture and storage (CCS), nuclear power and newtransport technologies will all require widespreaddeployment if we are to reach our greenhouse gasemission goals. Every major country and sector of the economy must be involved. The task is alsourgent if we are to make sure that investmentdecisions taken now do not saddle us with sub-optimal technologies in the long term.There is a growing awareness of the urgent needto turn political statements and analytical workinto concrete action. To spark this movement,at the request of the G8, the IEA is developing aseries of roadmaps for some of the most importanttechnologies. These roadmaps provide solidanalytical footing that enables the internationalcommunity to move forward on specifictechnologies. Each roadmap develops a growthpath for a particular technology from today to2050, and identifies technology, financing, policyand public engagement milestones that need to beachieved to realise the technology’s full potential.Roadmaps also include special focus on technologydevelopment and diffusion to emerging economies.International collaboration will be critical to achievethese goals. While its use is small today, solar photovoltaic(PV) power has a particularly promising future.Global PV capacity has been increasing at anaverage annual growth rate of more than 40%since 2000 and it has significant potential for long-term growth over the next decades. Thisroadmap envisions that by 2050, PV will provide11% of global electricity production (4 500 TWhper year), corresponding to 3 000 gigawatts of cumulative installed PV capacity. In addition tocontributing to significant greenhouse gas emissionreductions, this level of PV will deliver substantialbenefits in terms of the security of energy supplyand socio-economic development. Achieving thistarget will require a strong and balanced policyeffort in the next decade to allow for optimaltechnology progress, cost reduction and ramp-upof industrial manufacturing. This roadmap alsoidentifies technology goals and milestones thatmust be undertaken by different stakeholdersto enable the most cost-efficient expansion of PV. As the recommendations of the roadmapsare implemented, and as technology and policy frameworks evolve, the potential for differenttechnologies may increase. In response, the IEA willcontinue to update its analysis of future potentials,and welcomes stakeholder input as the roadmapsare taken forward.
Nobuo Tanaka
Executive Director
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Photovoltaic roadmap
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