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每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 7 月 20 日
市场技术解读
积极的短期情绪将取决于它能否站稳于 10 日移动平均线将以上…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 马股周一与区域股市同步告跌,基于美国股市上周五在 7 月的初步消费者信心指数急挫下暴跌后,迫使区域投资者纷纷转为
谨慎。
♦ 但在趁低吸购活动的重返下,本地股市的交投情绪逐步在午盘转好。
技术解读∶
♦ 惟在动力指标仍往下转低下,任何复苏动力料将维持脆弱。
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2010 年 7 月 20 日
每日交投策略∶
♦ 令人感到乐观的是,我们预料低线股的轮流炒风将会在近期内持续吸引散户的购兴,并有望托高大市士气。
♦ 虽然如此,我们认为,大市交投情绪还得胥视于美国和区域股市的近期表现。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
7月 7月 7月 7月 7月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 13 日 14 日 15 日 16 日 19 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,333.35 -3.30 -0.2
363 506 242 476 327
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,792.49 -14.84 -0.2
284 194 390 206 324
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,743.41 -21.20 -0.6
289 269 289 263 269
无交易 各大海外指数
428 395 443 424 444
道琼斯工商指数 10,154.43 56.53 0.6
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,198.23 19.18 0.9
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,071.25 6.37 0.6
(百万股) 574 802 620 794 849 伦敦金融时报指数 5,148.28 -10.57 -0.2
总成交值 恒生指数 20,090.95 -159.21 -0.8
(百万令吉) 1,085 1,538 1,128 1,196 1,331 雅加达综合指数 2,975.57 -16.88 -0.6
东京日经 225 指数 9,408.36 休市 休市
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,731.95 -6.50 -0.4
令吉兑美元 3.2055 3.1955 3.1975 3.2065 3.2240 上海综合指数 2,475.42 51.15 2.1
曼谷综合指数 830.4 2.86 0.3
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 富时新加坡海峡时报指
数 2,945.42 -12.30 -0.4
台湾加权指数 7,649.83 -14.74 -0.2
印度 Sensex 指数 17,928.42 -27.40 -0.2
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 76.54 0.53 0.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,454.00 5.00 0.2
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 6 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
22 日-23 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 8 月 10 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 7 月 20 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 虽然本地期货市场在美国主要指数上周五暴挫下于昨日往下开低,但吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)还是成功稳住阵脚而稳健
地复苏,并以全日最高点报收。
♦ 技术而言,我们认为,由于它仍处于 10 日移动平均线以上,因此短期交投情绪将偏向正面。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日的反弹,显示买盘活动可能会在近日恢复。
♦ 因此,若它有能力企稳于 10 日移动平均线以上,那么交易员应再次准备“作多”。
♦ 只有当它跌破 10 日移动平均线以下时,才应离场。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 7 月 1333.00 1340.00 1331.00 1340.00 -0.50 1340.00 5102 18143
10 年 8 月 1331.00 1339.00 1331.00 1339.00 -1.00 1339.00 331 943
10 年 9 月 1331.00 1339.00 1330.00 1338.00 -1.00 1338.50 114 507
10 年 12 月 1330.00 1336.00 1330.00 1336.00 -2.50 1337.50 34 262
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2010 年 7 月 20 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 美股周一稍微复苏,基于一些正面的公司业绩消息抵消了美国住宅发展商信心指数的下挫。
♦ 不过,随着油田服务公司 Halliburton(+6.0%)公布强于预期的业绩后,投资者信心便逐步重现。波音(Boeing)在公
布取得 30 架飞机订单后,升涨 2.1%,而微软(Microsoft)则在 UBS 上修其盈利预测后,应声上扬 1.4%。
♦ 收盘后,国际商业机器(IBM)和德州仪器(Texas Instrument)在公布低于预期的营业额后,纷纷往下收黑。
技术解读∶
♦ 随着它以一根“正面孕线型态”(positive harami)挂收,如今下跌风险已降低。
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2010 年 7 月 20 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 置地通用( L&G )(日线图) 图 8∶ 置地通用(单日线图)
♦ 在动力方面,随机指标和 14 日强弱指标已达到“超买区”。虽然如此,除非指标开始向下转低,否则它还是可能会进一步
升涨。
技术解读∶
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