By PATRICK BURNSON, exeCUTIve edITOR
uring Worl War II, th U.S. Na nlistworl champion chss plar Rubn Finto calculat—on th basis o positionalprobabilit—whr nm submarinswr most likl to surac. yars latr, Finwas ask about th projct’s outcom, anmostl rpli: “It work out all right.”Whil logistics managrs ma not b consulting withchss mastrs ths as, th ar posing on big qustion toconomic thorists willing to tak it on: Is “Th Grat FrightRcssion” nall coming to an n? Analsts an inustrinsirs ar tlling us that things ar in gtting bttr orshippr organizations, but that th tnuous businss climatan tightn crit controls will mak it icult or carrirsto rapil pan capacit or th rmainr o 2010. Th shippr imprati, thn, will b to collaborat withcarrirs lik nr bor. With capacit tightning, a nwurgnc shoul b plac on mitigating risk an controllingcost. Th 21st Annual Stat o Logistics Rport (SoL), rlasb th Council o Suppl Chain Managmnt Prossionals(CSCMP) an prsnt b Pnsk Logistics at th NationalPrss Club last month, conrm what man shipprs habn suspcting. Th worst ma b or, but as th conomcontinus its slow rcor, shipprs ar going to b acwith an ntirl nw st o tactical challngs.“W ar nitl sing a rcor,” sas Rosaln Wilson,th rport’s author, “but not th kin that will gnrat a loto nw businss this ar. Grant, shipprs ha alrama a grat man sacrics—that shouln’t chang su-nl in th short trm.”In, accoring to Wilson’s rsarch, th cost o th U.S.businss logistics sstm clin 18.2 prcnt in 2009—thbiggst rop in th histor o th rport. Manwhil, businsslogistics costs ll to $1.1 trillion, a cras o $244 billionrom 2008. Combin with th rop in 2008, total logisticscosts ha clin almost $300 billion uring th rcssion.In act, 2009 logistics costs as a prcnt o th nominal Grossdomstic Prouct (GdP) hit a historic low at 7.7 prcnt.“Both major componnts o th cost mols clin in2009,” plains Wilson. “Inntor carring costs ll 14.1prcnt in 2009, an this cras in carring costs was uto both a 4.6 prcnt rop in inntoris an a 10 prcntrop in th inntor carring rat.” Transportation costs, shas, plummt 20.2 prcnt rom 2008 lls. Trucking,which compriss 78 prcnt o th transportation compo-nnt, clin 20.3 prcnt whil all othr mos combinclin 20.5 prcnt.
22 LOGISTICS MANAGeMeNT
| Jul 2010
2010 STATe OF LOGISTICS:
Th cost o th U.S. businss logistics sstm clin 18.2prcnt in 2009—th largst rop in th histor o th
State of Logistics
. But as th conom slowl impros,shipprs will n to b mor cautious an tactical as thac incrasing olums, tight capacit, an highr rats.