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Lloyds TSB JUL 21 Daily Economic Outlook

Lloyds TSB JUL 21 Daily Economic Outlook

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Published by: Miir Viir on Jul 21, 2010
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Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets Economic Research, 10 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7AE, Switchboard: 0207 626 1500.
 To view our Economic Researchclick here
Wednesday, 21st July 2010
Daily Economic Outlook
Economic Research
Prices taken at London close; Swap rate quote conventions:UK - Semi, Actual/365 vs. 6M Libor; US - Annually, Actual/360 vs. 3M Libor; Euro - Annually, 30/360 vs. 6M Euribor. Swap rates are quoted as Ask prices 
Key data and events today
 JN-Cabinet Office Monthly Economic ReportUK09:30Bank of England releases MPC minutes from its 7/8th July meetingEC10:15Germany to sell €4B of 30-year bonds and €1B of 10yr index linked notesUS19:00Bernanke gives Monetary Policy report to Senate Banking PanelBZ-Brazil SELIC interest rate decision11.00%11.00%10.25%
Key data and events over the week ahead
DayCountryEven Thu 22
CARetail sales (May), Retail sales less autos (May), Bank of Canada MonetaryPolicy report and press conferenceECPMI manufacturing (Jul) P, PMI services (Jul) P, Industrial new orders sa(May), Consumer confidence (Jul)FRBusiness confidence indicator (Jul), Production outlook indicator (Jul),Consumer confidence indicator (Jul), PMI manufacturing (Jul) P, PMI services(Jul) PGEPMI manufacturing (Jul) P, PMI services (Jul) PSASouth Africa interest rates, South African Reserve Bank interest rate decisionUKRetail sales ex auto fuel (Jun), Retail sales w/auto fuel (Jun)USInitial jobless claims (w/e Jul 17), Leading indicators (Jun), Existing homesales (Jun), Bernanke gives Monetary Policy report to House Banking Panel
Fri 23
CAConsumer price index (Jun), Core CPI (Jun)ECECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo speaks in San SebastianFRConsumer spending (Jun)GEIFO - business climate (Jul), IFO - current assessment (Jul), IFO - expectations(Jul)UKGDP (Q2) P, BBA loans for house purchase (Jun)
Mon 26
AUPPIBZCurrent account, Foreign investment JNMerchnds trade balanceTUCapacity utilization, Industrial confidence, 2013 fixed rate bonds auctionUKHometrack housing surveyUSChicago fed nat activity index, New home sales, Dallas fed manf. activity,Treasury's Brainard delivers address in Washington
 Tue 27
AUConference board leading indexBZFIPE CPI, Total outstanding loans, Private banks lending, Centraal GovtbudgetECM3FRJobseekers net changeGEGfK consumer confidence survey JNCorp service price index, 2-yhear bonds auctionMXGlobal economic indicatorTU2017 floating ratenotes & 2011 zero-coupon bonds auctionUKCBI reported salesUSS&P/CaseShiller home price index, Richmond fed maanu. index, Consumerconfidence, 2-year notes auction
urrences cange on ay
/$ 1.290-0.36£/$1.5280.30/£0.844-0.66£/1.1850.66£/CHF1.601-0.38£/¥133.270.94$/¥87.240.63
Equities % change (on day)
Dow Jones10066.7-0.86S&P 5001064.7-0.61FTSE 1005139.5-0.17Nikkei 2259300.5-1.15DJ Eurostoxx 2627.3-0.28
Commodities (US$)% change (on day)
Oil WTI, near-term future 76.980.57Gold spot1190.20.61
The highlight of the day promises to be Fed Chairman Bernanke'spresentation of the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to the USSenate. The US economy appears to be losing some momentumand with renewed risks of deflation the markets will focus on anyindication that further policy easing may be on the horizon.In the UK, the attention will be on July's Bank of England MPC Minutes.Last month saw one member, Andrew Sentance, voting for a 25bpincrease in the Bank Rate. Given his recent comments, it is almostcertain he would have done the same again in July. But once againwe think he was most probably alone in arguing for higher rates andexpect to see another 7-1 vote.
The only other event of significance is the central bank decision out of Brazil where we expect to see a 75bp rate increase to 11%. Rates areforecast to end 2010 at 12%.
Chart: Bank of England Bank Rate (%)
nterest rates p cange on ayUK
Official Bank Rate0.500.03-mth interbank 0.740.02-yr swap1.381.85-yr swap2.411.210-yr swap3.360.6UK 10-yr benchmark3.360.4
Fed Funds rate0.250.03-mth Libor0.51-0.52-yr swap0.80-1.85-yr swap1.90-3.610-yr swap2.95-3.5US 10-yr benchmark2.92-3.1
ECB policy rate1.000.03-mth Euribor0.810.32-yr swap1.41-1.75-yr swap2.10-2.810-yr swap2.87-3.3Euro 10-yr benchmark 2.64-1.5
Call rate0.100.03-mth interbank 0.240.05-yr swap0.582.410-yr JGB benchmark1.100.5
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