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US Economic Outlook
Jan HatziusChief US EconomistJuly 21, 2010The Second-Half Slowdown Begins
Goldman Sachs US Economics
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Actual DataBlue Chip Consensus Forecasts (July 2010)**Inflation Consensus from Philadelphia Fed (Survey of Professional Forecasters)
GS US Forecast vs. Consensus
200620072008200920102011-8-6-4-202468-8-6-4-202468
Growth (Real GDP)
ForecastGSConsensusAnn. % chg.Ann. % chg.
01234560123456200620072008200920102011
Fed Funds Rate
PercentPercentGSConsensusForecast45678910114567891011200620072008200920102011
ConsensusForecastGS
PercentPercent
Unemployment Rate
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.00.00.51.01.52.02.53.0200620072008200920102011
Inflation (Core PCE)
ForecastGSConsensusPercent change, year agoPercent change, year ago
Goldman Sachs US Economics
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12.712.913.113.313.512.712.913.113.313.520062007200820092010Real Gross Domestic ProductReal Final Sales of Domestic ProductTrillions of 2005 dollarsTrillions of 2005dollars
Note: Dotted line denotes GS forecast.Source: Departmentof Commerce. Our calculations.
InventoryAccumulationInventoryLiquidation
The Inventory Cycle Has Boosted Growth…
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