TRI-COUNTY

Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory

Number 1Rocky Infanger

Everett M. “Sonny” Stiger

July 20, 2010Subject:The Ignition Component of the NFDRS and the Probability of Ignitionappears to be a key element in forecasting fire behavior in beetle killedponderosa pine.

Discussion:Beetle killed ponderosa pine needles and the 10 hour size ends of branches withneedles attached have been building up on the forest floor and exhibiting anunusual amount of needle drape on understory vegetation (see photo 1&2). TheNorth Fork fire of July 12, 2010 on the North Fork of Stickney creek North ofHelena, MT appeared to grow quickly from a 10 to 15 acre running crown fire to70 acres of spot fires (see photo 3&4). The Ignition Component (IC) for that dayfrom the Helena Fire Weather station was 82 in the C model and 79 in the Gmodel with a 3% fine fuel moisture. The Probability of Ignition (POI) wasestimated at 74 to 86. It is recommended that POI be used during operations(Rothermel 1983).The following is taken from T. Leuschen paper

Environmental Conditions asindicators of Potential for Rapid Rate of Spread in Wildland Fires.

“The

Probability of Ignition of 80

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100% is what enabled the entrapment fire(Thirtymile fire) to ignite and spread rapidly. Hundreds of embers deposited bythe wind set up the opportunity for hundreds of spot fires to ignite at the sametime and coalesce, creating, in affect, a mass ignition. The key to the entireprocess is fine fuel moisture and Probability of Ignition. A high Probability ofIgnition is necessary to enable spot fires to start and spread rapidly.Unfortunately, although fireline supervisors are trained in determining fine fuelmoisture and Probability of Ignition, they are not always determined byfirefighters on the fireline and less frequently shared with all fireline personnelwhen the weather is recorded. A Probability of Ignition of 70% appears to besignificant and should be cause for concern.

”

Concerns to Firefighters:Anticipate short range, profuse spotting from intense surface fires, torching trees,and areas of active crowning when the Red/Dead Ponderosa pine burns with theIgnition Component and/or the POI at 70% or greater.