June 19, 2008Flip Bell Curve; Meet Warshaw Curve!1 of 3

Flip Bell Curve; Meet Warshaw Curve!

Adam ParkIntroducing the Bell Curve

When mass production rules, everything else has to be done in a mass--mass marketing,and mass media come to mind. In the mass production era, the best and probably theeasiest way to success is to find the one right product and price to target the averagecustomers or consumers.That's why most businesses assume that the "bell curve" or normal distribution is the way togo. You need to target as big a number of consumers as you can to sell your one bestproduct at the one best price. If you chart the customer distribution compared to price, youget a bell curve that looks quite like the one below:

Flipping the Bell Curve

Problem is that the bell curve is losing touch with the reality. Take cell phones or mobiledevices for instance. You can now get a phone for free with subscription to a mobile carrier'sservices. If you choose to do so, you can also get a premium phone that will cost you morethan 500 bucks in some cases. What's wrong with this picture? It ain't no bell curve anymore.

June 19, 2008Flip Bell Curve; Meet Warshaw Curve!2 of 3

Now you need a different perspective altogether! You need to flip the bell curve to meet anew curve: the Warshaw curve (dubbed after Doug Warshaw, TV producer and founder of avideo-sharing site, motionbox.com).Years before I caught a glimpse of this transition--flipped bell curve--but didn't know what tocall it. Then, in recent months, I googled a term called "inverse bell curve," and voila! Thereit is--the Warshaw curve. It's good to know that you're not alone to come up with a newperspective.

Living Warshaw Curve

In the age of affluence, or the

Long Tail

marketplace a la Chris Andersen, you can getexactly what you want when you want it. Forget customer loyalty programs! You gain loyaltyonly when you deliver the value your customer expects to get from her interaction with you.That's why you've got to have a keen interest in user experience.In the Warshaw curve era, the consumer distribution looks more like two hills and a valley inbetween. This means that there'll be

(a) land of free

;

(b) valley of mediocre

; and

(c)highland of premium

. My two cents is this: Don't stand in the middle--you're highly likelyto be a road kill!

Free-mediocre-premium

. Depending on where you choose to do your business, you needto apply different business models for each land. Free land requires that you offer free