6. Meeting demand requires discovering, developing, and bringing to full production 60mbpd (105-45) of "unidentifiedprojects" in the 18-year period of 2012-2030 and approximately 25 mbpd of such projects by 2020, on the basis of avery conservative estimate of only 1% annual growth in demand. The independent Oxford Institute of Energy Studieshas estimated a possible development of 6.5mbpd of such projects, including the Canadian tar sands, implying a deficitof 18-19 mbpd as compared to demand, and an approximate 14 mbpd drop in total liquid fuels production relative to2012, a 16% drop in 8 years. 7. The curve is virtually identical to one produced by geologists Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere and published in"The End of Cheap Oil," in Scientific American, March, 1998, twelve years ago. They projected that production of petroleum from conventional sources would drop from 74 mbpd in 2003 (as compared to 84 mbpd in 2008 in the DOEgraph) and drop to 39 mbpd by 2030 (as compared to 39 mbpd by 2030 in the DOE graph!).http://www.jala.com /energy1.php . Campbell and Laherrere predicted a 2003 "peak," and the above graph implies a 'peak" (not necessarilythe actual peak, but the midpointr of production of 2005 or before. So here we are, if the graph is right, on the edge of a precipice, with no prior warning from either the industry, whichknows what it possesses, or the collective governments, which ostensibly protect the public interest. As Colin Campbell,a research geologist who has worked for many large oil companies and studied oil depletion extensively(http://www.peakoil.net/about-aspo/dr-colin-campbell) says, "The warning signals have been flying for a long time. Theyhave been plain to see, but the world turned a blind eye, and failed to read the message." http://www.greatchange.org /ov-campbell,outlook.html The world was completely transformed by oil for the duration of the twentieth century, butif the graph is right, within 20 years it will be virtually gone but our dependence upon it will not. Instead, we havezero time to plan how to replace cars in our liveszero time to plan how to manufacture and install millions of furnaces to replace home oil furnaces, and zero timetoproduce the infrastructure necessary to carry out that task zero time to retool suburbia so it can function without gasolinezero time to plan for replacement of the largest military establishment in history, almost completely dependentupon oilzero time to plan to support nine billion peolple without the "green revolution," a creation of the age of oilzero time to plan to replace oil as an essential fuel in electricity productionzero time to plan for preserving millions of miles of roads without asphalt.zero time to plan for the replacement of oil in its essential role in EVERY industry.zero time to plan for replacement of oil in its exclusive role of transporting people, agricultural produce,manufactured goods. In a world without oil that appears only twenty years away, there will be no oil-burningships transporting US grain to other countries, there will be no oil-burning airlines linking the world's major cities,there will be no oil-burning ships transporting Chinese manufactured goods to the billions now dependent on them.zero time to plan for the survival of the billions of new people expected by 2050 in the aftermath of ":peak everything."zero capital, because of failing banks ansd public and private debt, to address these issues.Why zero time?Because if we at any time use more oil than allowed by the graph, we will have even less later.. Because we are already committed to supporting 2.5 billion more people on what we have. Because every day we continue upward in our oil consmption, even though we continue to have more people whoneed it and billions who deserve to rise from abject poverty, we are making the future supply shortage worse. If you believe the graph, demand will outstrip supply starting at the end of 2011, and severely outstrip supply in fiveyears. What are we going to do, and how are we going to do it? We have no time to decide.
IS THE GRAPH RIGHT?
It is very unlikely that things can be better than the graph indicates. Why?The great majority of authorities believe there is little more than 1 trillion barrels of conventional oil left. You canmake a simple calculation from that: At the present rate of 30 billion barrels per year, 82 million barrels per day, itwill all be gone in 33 years, and consumption has been rapidly increasing, not decreasing, so if anything it will allbe gone sooner...A closer look at the graph reveals that it was drawn on the assumption that the world's existing conventional fieldscontain only 750,000 barrels at this time, enough to keep us going only 25 years.The graph assumes a decline rate of 4% per year. As long as the estimates of remaining reserves are right, thatcan't be far off. In fact, 4% is a relatively low decline rate compared to what has been observed in oil fieldsgenerally. Hold on, it's going to be a fast ride down!The major oil companies, which presumably know better than we do how much oil is in their possession,"conspicuously fail to invest in new refining capacity, which would surely be needed if production were set torise.'" Campbell, http://www.greatchange.org/ov-campbell,outlook.html . The excess of refining capacity overdemand remained close to 10 million bpd during the nineties, but dropped to almost nothing in the last decade as aresult of failure to build new capacity. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2006/01/chp1pdf/fig1_21.pdf .The United States Joint Forces Command has also reported the failure of the oil industry to invest in the refiningcapacity necessary to permit expanded production, and that "Even were a concerted effort begun today to repairthat shortage, it would be ten years before production could catch up with expected demand." "Joint OperatingEnvironment 2010," at 26. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf The most frequiently discussed significant source of unexploited petroleum is the tar sands of Alberta, Canada.Because a high percentage of the energy value of the tar sands has to be expended in their extraction, the reportedquantity of reserves is misleading, and two independent researchers have estimated respectively that productionfrom the tar sands by 2020 may be expected of 3.3 million bpd and 4 million bpd. Consequently, the likelihood of