1boosts home values and local economiesThe ARC Effect: How better transit
A statistical analysis o the efect o threerecent improvements to NJ RANSI’srail system on home values predicts thatARC – a new commuter rail tunnelto Midtown Manhattan – could add acumulative $18 billion to home values within two miles o NJ RANSI andMetro-North Port Jervis and Pascack Valleytrain stations. Tis, o course, is just one o ARC’s several long-term economic benets, which also include an overall increase in theregion’s economy, new jobs on both sideso the Hudson, higher personal incomes,higher commercial property values, andreductions in driving and air pollution.Hedonic price modeling o 45,000home sales within two miles o trainstations shows that three improvements tothe NJ RANSI rail system – MidtownDirect Service on the Morris & EssexLine, the Montclair Connection or theMontclair-Boonton Line and Secaucus Junction or the Pascack Valley and Main/Bergen/Port Jervis Lines – increased the value o nearby homes by an average o
Thanks to faster oute tie, thenuer of Ne Jersey an Ne Yorkresients ith a train oute to mi-ton of uner 50 inutes i oueafter ARcoes near train stations signiantygaine in aue after miton diret,montair connetion an SeauusJuntion
an aerage of $23,000 erhoe, ith the highest gains osest tothe stationsThe eian age earne in manhattanis 60% higher than in Ne Jersey
(Soure: bureau of laor Statistis, 2009)
’95 2010 postARC
100% moreresidentsunder50 min25% moreresidentsunder70 min
Minute-equivalentsto Midtown Manhattan
nearly $23,000 per home (in 2009 dollars).Homes within walking distance o trainstations gained the most value – up to$34,000. Value appreciations were lesssignicant arther rom stations.Cumulatively, these three projectsboosted home values by $11 billion. Tisrepresents $250 million a year in new property tax revenue or municipalities.
A detailed comparison o the trip timereductions provided by these three projects with the trip time reductionsexpected rom ARC reveals that
ARCcould raise home values by anaverage of $19,000 per home
, andup to $29,000 or homes within one-hal mile o stations.
Cumulatively, ARC could boosthome values by $18 billion
, andgenerate $375 million a year in new property tax revenue or municipalities.Tis is signicant as growing tax basesrelieve pressure or municipalities toincrease tax rates.
The number of residents westof the Hudson River with a traincommute to Midtown of under 50minutes will double after ARC
,thanks to aster commuting times. Tenumber o people within 70 minuteso Midtown will increase by 25%. Tisextraordinary improvement in access will have signicant positive economicimpacts or amilies and municipali-ties across New Jersey and New York,as wages are 60% higher in Manhattanthan west o the Hudson.
The economic development andquality-of-life-improving potentialof better transit can best beharnessed by building new,transit-oriented, mixed-use,economically diverse develop-ment around train stations.
NJ RANSI, Metro-North, munici- palities, and the state o New York andNew Jersey should work together tooptimize ARC’s benets or the mostresidents possible.
Median sale price (FY09 dollars): $451,000Average trip-time improvement: 12 minutesPrice increase over 9 yearsSee box on page 6 for a denition of minute-equivalents