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Rpa the Arc Effect

Rpa the Arc Effect

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Published by: Eliot Brown / New York Observer on Jul 29, 2010
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The ARCEffect
How better transitboosts home values& local economies
A Report by
Regional Plan Association
July 2010
 
Acknowledgements
Tis report was written by JulietteMichaelson, Senior Planner, with SeniorFellow Jef Zupan, Research AssociateAndrew urco, and Associate Planner GISFrank Hebbert.Special thanks to om Marchwinski, SeniorDirector o Forecasting and Research atNJ RANSI, and Rachel Weinberger,Assistant Proessor o City & RegionalPlanning at the University o Pennsylvania. We thank the ollowing organizations ortheir generous nancial support:
Te Amy Klette Newman Foundation 
Te Citi Foundation 
Te Durst Organization 
Te F. M. Kirby Foundation 
Te M& Foundation 
Te Moody’s Foundation 
Te Nicholson Foundation 
PNC Foundation 
Te Port Authority o New York andNew Jersey 
Te Rockeeller Brothers Fund 
Te Schumann Fund or New Jersey
NJ TRANSIT’SpAST pRJcTSAv bSTdlcAl cNmIS,ANd
ARC
wIll T
Tis report was designed by Jef Ferzoco,Creative and echnology Director, withBenjamin Oldenburg, Research Associate,Graphic Design.Photo credits: p.2: ickr/mkelle p.5: ickr/jenik p.6: ickr/issphil
 
1boosts home values and local economiesThe ARC Effect: How better transit
A statistical analysis o the efect o threerecent improvements to NJ RANSI’srail system on home values predicts thatARC – a new commuter rail tunnelto Midtown Manhattan – could add acumulative $18 billion to home values within two miles o NJ RANSI andMetro-North Port Jervis and Pascack Valleytrain stations. Tis, o course, is just one o ARC’s several long-term economic benets, which also include an overall increase in theregion’s economy, new jobs on both sideso the Hudson, higher personal incomes,higher commercial property values, andreductions in driving and air pollution.Hedonic price modeling o 45,000home sales within two miles o trainstations shows that three improvements tothe NJ RANSI rail system – MidtownDirect Service on the Morris & EssexLine, the Montclair Connection or theMontclair-Boonton Line and Secaucus Junction or the Pascack Valley and Main/Bergen/Port Jervis Lines – increased the value o nearby homes by an average o 
Executive Summary
$10,286
(2.3%)
$15,287
(3.4%)
$22,524
(5.0%)
$33,852
(7.5%)
.511.52 mi.
Thanks to faster oute tie, thenuer of Ne Jersey an Ne Yorkresients ith a train oute to mi-ton of uner 50 inutes i oueafter ARcoes near train stations signiantygaine in aue after miton diret,montair connetion an SeauusJuntion
an aerage of $23,000 erhoe, ith the highest gains osest tothe stationsThe eian age earne in manhattanis 60% higher than in Ne Jersey
(Soure: bureau of laor Statistis, 2009)
1m2m3m
71-9051-70< 50
’95 2010 postARC
100% moreresidentsunder50 min25% moreresidentsunder70 min
-
Minute-equivalentsto Midtown Manhattan
NewJerseyManhattan
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000$80,000
nearly $23,000 per home (in 2009 dollars).Homes within walking distance o trainstations gained the most value – up to$34,000. Value appreciations were lesssignicant arther rom stations.Cumulatively, these three projectsboosted home values by $11 billion. Tisrepresents $250 million a year in new property tax revenue or municipalities. 
A detailed comparison o the trip timereductions provided by these three projects with the trip time reductionsexpected rom ARC reveals that
ARCcould raise home values by anaverage of $19,000 per home
, andup to $29,000 or homes within one-hal mile o stations. 
Cumulatively, ARC could boosthome values by $18 billion
, andgenerate $375 million a year in new property tax revenue or municipalities.Tis is signicant as growing tax basesrelieve pressure or municipalities toincrease tax rates. 
The number of residents westof the Hudson River with a traincommute to Midtown of under 50minutes will double after ARC
,thanks to aster commuting times. Tenumber o people within 70 minuteso Midtown will increase by 25%. Tisextraordinary improvement in access will have signicant positive economicimpacts or amilies and municipali-ties across New Jersey and New York,as wages are 60% higher in Manhattanthan west o the Hudson. 
The economic development andquality-of-life-improving potentialof better transit can best beharnessed by building new,transit-oriented, mixed-use,economically diverse develop-ment around train stations.
NJ RANSI, Metro-North, munici- palities, and the state o New York andNew Jersey should work together tooptimize ARC’s benets or the mostresidents possible.
Median sale price (FY09 dollars): $451,000Average trip-time improvement: 12 minutesPrice increase over 9 yearsSee box on page 6 for a denition of minute-equivalents

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