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FL12 Poll Memo

FL12 Poll Memo

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 02, 2010
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Washington, DC Seattle London Buenos Aires
July 31, 2010
Lori Edwards Leads Race for Florida’s 12
Tea Party Candidate Wilkinson Has Potential to Play Deciding Role
Interested Parties
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll
shows Lori Edwards bucking nationalpolitical trends and leading Dennis Ross 35 to 32 percent, with official Tea Partycandidate Randy Wilkinson receiving 20 percent of the vote.
 Edwards is well positioned to take advantage of the dynamics of this race. She is popular,receiving a nearly 2:1 positive-to-negative favorability ratio, including a solidly net positivefavorability rating from Republican voters.This race provides a clear example of the impact a Tea Party candidate can have this year. Ontop of the national Tea Party momentum, Wilkinson is a candidate with a particular ability tosiphon votes away from the Republican candidate and hold them. He’s a Republican CountyCommissioner with a 12-point name identification advantage over Ross, and his positivefavorability rating is double that of Ross’.Wilkinson pulls roughly twice as many votes from Ross as from Edwards, drawing 18 percentRepublican voters and 36 percent of Republican-leaning Independents, an ideologicallyconservative bloc.About The SurveyThe sample for this survey was drawn randomly from a list of registered voters and stratified bythe townships and precincts in Florida’s 12
Congressional district. Quotas were assigned toreflect the expected contribution of these areas to the total vote in the 2010 general election.The sample reflects the demographic composition of the likely 2010 electorate in this district.Party registration in the survey is 42 percent Democratic and 44 percent Republican (partyregistration of all registered voters in the district is 42 percent Democratic and 35 percent
This survey of 400 likely November 2010 voters was conducted July 26 – 28, 2010 by Greenberg Quinlan RosnerResearch. The survey is subject to a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.9 percentage points.
“Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were heldtoday and the candidates were Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross and Tea Party candidate RandyWilkinson, for whom would you vote: Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross or Tea Party candidate RandyWilkinson?”

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