July 31, 2010

Lori Edwards Leads Race for Florida’s 12th District

Tea Party Candidate Wilkinson Has Potential to Play Deciding Role
To: Interested Parties
From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

A new Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll1 shows Lori Edwards bucking national
political trends and leading Dennis Ross 35 to 32 percent, with official Tea Party
candidate Randy Wilkinson receiving 20 percent of the vote.2

Edwards is well positioned to take advantage of the dynamics of this race. She is popular,
receiving a nearly 2:1 positive-to-negative favorability ratio, including a solidly net positive
favorability rating from Republican voters.

This race provides a clear example of the impact a Tea Party candidate can have this year. On
top of the national Tea Party momentum, Wilkinson is a candidate with a particular ability to
siphon votes away from the Republican candidate and hold them. He’s a Republican County
Commissioner with a 12-point name identification advantage over Ross, and his positive
favorability rating is double that of Ross’.

Wilkinson pulls roughly twice as many votes from Ross as from Edwards, drawing 18 percent
Republican voters and 36 percent of Republican-leaning Independents, an ideologically
conservative bloc.

About The Survey

The sample for this survey was drawn randomly from a list of registered voters and stratified by
the townships and precincts in Florida’s 12th Congressional district. Quotas were assigned to
reflect the expected contribution of these areas to the total vote in the 2010 general election.
The sample reflects the demographic composition of the likely 2010 electorate in this district.
Party registration in the survey is 42 percent Democratic and 44 percent Republican (party
registration of all registered voters in the district is 42 percent Democratic and 35 percent

1
This survey of 400 likely November 2010 voters was conducted July 26 – 28, 2010 by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research. The survey is subject to a margin of error of approximately +/- 4.9 percentage points.
2
“Now, thinking about the election for U.S. Congress in November 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held
today and the candidates were Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross and Tea Party candidate Randy
Wilkinson, for whom would you vote: Democrat Lori Edwards, Republican Dennis Ross or Tea Party candidate Randy
Wilkinson?”

Washington, DC Seattle London Buenos Aires

www.greenbergresearch.com
Lori Edwards Leads Race for Florida’s 12th District 2

Republican). The sample is 47 percent male and 53 percent female, 79 percent

white/Caucasian, 9 percent African American, and 6 percent Latino/Hispanic. Fifty-three
percent of voters in the survey self-identify as conservative, 27 percent as moderate, and 16
percent as liberal.

No information about any of the candidates had been provided previous to the vote being
asked.

 2010 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. July, 2010