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Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading: Remain Bullish On The FBM KLCI - 03/08/2010
Mandarin Version - Market Technical Reading: Remain Bullish On The FBM KLCI - 03/08/2010
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 8 月 3 日
市场技术解读
保持看俏富时综指…
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 随着区域股市飙升,加上并购消息近来不断涌现,本地股市周一一连第 7 日扩大上升势头。
♦ 在区域方面,投资者无视于疲弱的美国次季国内生产总值(GDP)数据。事实上,中国采购经理指数(PMI)所写下 17 个
月来最缓慢的增长,反而激发了中国政府可能会放宽其紧缩政策的希望。
技术解读∶
♦ 除此外,虽然整体动力解读转为好坏参半,但随机指标(stochastic oscillators)在“超买区”发出一个不显眼的“卖出”
讯号,以暗示市场可能会回调。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 从机构和散户的短期参与程度不断提升看来,加上富时综指昨日也一再刷下全年新高,这使到我们继续保持乐观,即使富时
综指昨日形成一根“类似星线”。技术而言,有关蜡烛暗示市场今日可能会暂停其升势或回调。
♦ 换言之,任何短期弱势将会为投资者带来入场良机,以放眼市场将进一步往上冲高。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶主要海外指数及原产品
7月 7月 7月 7月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 27 日 28 日 29 日 30 日 2日 本地主要指数 (点) (%)
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,363.60 2.68 0.2
308 445 386 348 494
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 8,975.58 21.94 0.2
381 264 345 378 280
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,821.93 27.16 0.7
285 278 279 274 243
无交易 各大海外指数
391 378 355 365 348
道琼斯工商指数 10,674.38 208.44 2.0
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,295.36 40.66 1.8
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,125.86 24.26 2.2
(百万股) 732 847 1,000 918 964 伦敦金融时报指数 5,397.11 139.09 2.6
总成交值 恒生指数 21,412.79 382.98 1.8
(百万令吉) 1,335 1,251 1,481 1,422 1,284 雅加达综合指数 3,058.98 -10.30 -0.3
东京日经 225 指数 9,570.31 33.01 0.3
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,782.27 22.94 1.3
令吉兑美元 3.1815 3.1870 3.1820 3.1790 3.1580 上海综合指数 2,672.52 35.02 1.3
曼谷综合指数 863.18 7.35 0.9
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 3,025.04 37.34 1.2
台湾加权指数 7,911.68 151.05 1.9
印度 Sensex 指数 18,081.21 212.92 1.2
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 81.34 2.39 3.0
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,570.00 53.00 2.1
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 6 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
22 日-23 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 8 月 10 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 8 月 3 日
图 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(日线图) 图 4∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(单日线图)
技术解读∶
♦ 昨日的涨势是由外围力量所推动,基于海外股市因中国可能会放松紧缩政策和市场看好公司业绩而猛升超过 1%。
♦ 随着它划出一根阳烛,这完全推翻了之前暗示将调整至 10 日移动平均线的利淡阴烛。
♦ 只要不会跌破这些支撑水平,那么期指的短至中期展望将维持看俏。
每日交投策略∶
♦ 昨日凌厉的反弹至另一个全年新高加强了我们看俏本地期货市场的后市。
表 3∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)收盘
FKLI (月份) 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1364.00 1368.00 1362.50 1367.00 13.00 1367.00 4518 19150
10 年 9 月 1363.50 1368.50 1363.00 1368.00 14.50 1368.00 237 604
10 年 12 月 1363.50 1368.50 1362.50 1368.50 15.00 1368.50 151 270
11 年 3 月 1363.00 1369.00 1363.00 1369.00 - 1369.00 67 0
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2010 年 8 月 3 日
图 5∶美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)(日线图) 图 6∶美国纳斯达克指数(Nasdaq)(日线图)
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 在欧洲银行创下标青业绩及原产品价格猛升的激励下,隔夜美股周一逆转近来的跌势,而展开了一波强劲的涨潮。
技术解读∶
♦ 它以一根利多阳烛报收,并确认了之前的“反击线”(dragonfly doji),这表示来日将会有更多涨势。
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2010 年 8 月 3 日
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶ 马化控股( MPHB)(日线图) 图 8∶ 马化控股(单日线图)
技术解读∶
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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