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Edition 12 - Chartered 4th August 2010

Edition 12 - Chartered 4th August 2010

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Published by Joel Hewish
Chartered is a free fortnightly publication from Fortrend Securities investment/financial adviser Joel Hewish.
Chartered is a free fortnightly publication from Fortrend Securities investment/financial adviser Joel Hewish.

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Published by: Joel Hewish on Aug 04, 2010
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08/28/2010

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Chartered
 
Fortrend 
 
Securities
Wealth
 
Management 
 
 Joel 
 
Hewish
 
is
 
an
 
Investment/Financial 
 
 Adviser 
 
at 
 
Fortrend 
 
Securities.
 
The
 
opinions
 
expressed 
 
are
 
his
 
own.
 
Edition
 
No.
 
12
 
4th
 
August
 
2010
 
Bottom
 
Line
:
 
There
 
now 
 
appears
 
to
 
be
 
limited 
 
time
 
left 
 
before
 
we
 
start 
 
to
 
see
 
the
 
next 
 
meaningful 
 
sell 
off 
 
in
 
most 
 
global 
 
 financial 
 
markets.
 
Major 
 
equity 
 
markets
 
appear 
 
to
 
have
 
either 
 
completed 
 
a
 
topping
 
 formation,
 
are
 
completing
 
a
 
topping
 
 formation
 
or 
 
are
 
already 
 
well 
 
entrenched 
 
in
 
the
 
next 
 
 phase
 
of 
 
their 
 
downtrend.
 
My 
 
expectation
 
is
 
that 
 
the
 
next 
 
three
 
months
 
should 
 
see
 
swift 
 
and 
 
broad 
 
declines.
 
The
 
next 
 
leg
 
down
 
in
 
the
 
larger 
 
degree
 
bear 
 
market 
 
has
 
now 
 
been
 
confirmed.
 
If 
 
you
 
have
 
not 
 
moved 
 
to
 
manage
 
these
 
risks
 
and 
 
take
 
advantage
 
of 
 
this
 
opportunity 
 
you
 
should 
 
be
 
doing
 
something
 
about 
 
it!! 
 
Chart
 
1
 
 –
 
US
 
S&P
 
500
 
 
It
 
has
 
been
 
a
 
month
 
since
 
the
 
last
 
time
 
I
 
wrote
 
Chartered
 
in
 
its
 
traditional
 
form
 
so
 
we
 
provide
 
an
 
update
 
on
 
the
 
two
 
markets
 
of 
 
immediate
 
concern,
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
and
 
S&P
 
ASX
 
200.
 
 
In
 
edition
 
9
 
and
 
10
 
I
 
made
 
a
 
specific
 
point
 
of 
 
noting
 
that
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
had
 
etched
 
out
 
a
 
topping
 
formation
 
called
 
a
 
head
 
and
 
shoulders
 
pattern.
 
We
 
made
 
special
 
mention
 
that
 
given
 
the
 
market
 
had
 
broken
 
below
 
support
 
around
 
1,040,
 
that
 
this
 
confirmed
 
the
 
trend
 
has
 
now
 
changed
 
and
 
that
 
the
 
commencement
 
of 
 
the
 
next
 
leg
 
of 
 
the
 
bear
 
market
 
has
 
been
 
confirmed.
 
 
IMPORTANTLY,
 
the
 
break
 
of 
 
support
 
continues
 
to
 
confirm
 
the
 
downtrend
 
and
 
the
 
recent
 
rally
 
over
 
the
 
past
 
month
 
has
 
not
 
changed
 
my
 
assessment
 
of 
 
the
 
trend.
 
The
 
trend
 
is
 
still
 
down
 
and
 
the
 
confirmation
 
stands.
 
 
 
In
 
recent
 
editions
 
I
 
also
 
noted
 
that
 
the
 
head
 
and
 
shoulders
 
pattern
 
was
 
“not
 
text
 
book
 
with
 
regards
 
to
 
symmetry”
 
but
 
that
 
it
 
“is
 
a
 
head
 
and
 
shoulders
 
pattern.”
 
 
The
 
recent
 
rally
 
from
 
early
 
July
 
to
 
date
 
has
 
allowed
 
the
 
market
 
to
 
unfold
 
further,
 
revealing
 
some
 
interesting
 
technical
 
movements.
 
 
The
 
first
 
being
 
the
 
movement
 
in
 
prices
 
for
 
the
 
Elliott
 
Wave
 
pattern
 
appear
 
to
 
be
 
larger
 
than
 
initially
 
thought.
 
That
 
is
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
continues
 
the
 
formation
 
of 
 
a
 
head
 
and
 
shoulders
 
pattern,
 
however,
 
what
 
I
 
first
 
thought
 
was
 
the
 
completion
 
of 
 
the
 
right
 
shoulder
 
now
 
appears
 
to
 
form
 
part
 
of 
 
the
 
head
 
pattern.
 
 
The
 
rally
 
from
 
early
 
July
 
to
 
date
 
now
 
appears
 
to
 
be
 
forming
 
the
 
right
 
shoulder
 
and
 
in
 
the
 
process
 
appears
 
to
 
be
 
showing
 
a
 
minor
 
degree
 
wave
 
2
 
counter
 
trend
 
rally
 
(as
 
I
 
currently
 
label
 
it)
 
that
 
is
 
losing
 
strength
 
by
 
the
 
day.
 
 
I
 
note
 
that
 
the
 
rally
 
from
 
early
 
July
 
to
 
date
 
shows
 
none
 
of 
 
the
 
volume
 
characteristics
 
which
 
would
 
generally
 
be
 
expected
 
in
 
a
 
healthy
 
bull
 
market.
 
As
 
such
 
I
 
remain
 
comfortable
 
that
 
upon
 
completion
 
of 
 
this
 
rally,
 
which
 
could
 
conclude
 
at
 
anytime,
 
we
 
should
 
see
 
the
 
resumption
 
of 
 
declines
 
in
 
share
 
prices
 
which
 
should
 
initially
 
see
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
decline
 
at
 
least
 
into
 
the
 
800’s
 
and
 
well
 
into
 
bear
 
market
 
territory.
 
 
It
 
is
 
my
 
expectation
 
that
 
the
 
next
 
three
 
months
 
should
 
provide
 
the
 
most
 
tumultuous
 
market
 
conditions
 
since
 
the
 
start
 
of 
 
the
 
downtrend
 
in
 
April
 
2010.
 
Chart
 
2
 
 –
 
US
 
S&P
 
500
 
ETF
 
 –
 
SPY
 
 
The
 
above
 
chart
 
of 
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
Exchange
 
Traded
 
Fund
 
 –
 
SPY,
 
a
 
good
 
proxy
 
for
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
for
 
volume
 
data,
 
highlights
 
the
 
spikes
 
in
 
volume
 
as
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
declines
 
to
 
new
 
lows
 
between
 
May
 
2010
 
and
 
July
 
2010.
 
 
These
 
spikes
 
represent
 
what
 
generally
 
occurs
 
when
 
prices
 
are
 
moving
 
in
 
the
 
direction
 
of 
 
the
 
larger
 
degree
 
trend.
 
In
 
this
 
instance
 
that
 
trend
 
has
 
been
 
down.
 
 
The
 
above
 
chart
 
also
 
shows
 
the
 
noticeable
 
lack
 
of 
 
spikes
 
in
 
volume
 
as
 
the
 
S&P
 
500
 
increases.
 
That
 
is
 
new
 
price
 
highs
 
are
 
not
 
matched
 
with
 
new
 
highs
 
in
 
volume.
 
 
I
 
should
 
be
 
very
 
clear,
 
the
 
price
 
action
 
since
 
March
 
2009
 
shows
 
none
 
of 
 
the
 
characteristics
 
that
 
a
 
healthy
 
market
 
should
 
display.
 
This
 
is
 
particularly
 
true
 
for
 
the
 
period
 
April
 
2010
 
to
 
date.
 
 
 
Given
 
that
 
the
 
larger
 
cycle
 
degree
 
trend
 
is
 
down,
 
although
 
the
 
smaller
 
primary
 
degree
 
trend
 
between
 
March
 
2009
 
and
 
April
 
2010
 
was
 
up,
 
you
 
can
 
also
 
see
 
the
 
characteristics
 
of 
 
the
 
weak
 
market
 
being
 
played
 
out
 
during
 
this
 
time
 
period.
 
 
Notice
 
that
 
as
 
the
 
market
 
was
 
increasing,
 
volume
 
was
 
decreasing.
 
 
Notice
 
also
 
that
 
as
 
prices
 
declined,
 
firstly
 
in
 
the
 
first
 
week
 
of 
 
September,
 
again
 
in
 
October
 
and
 
again
 
between
 
January
 
and
 
February,
 
volume
 
spiked.
 
This
 
gives
 
me
 
confidence
 
that
 
our
 
labelling
 
of 
 
the
 
rise
 
between
 
March
 
2009
 
and
 
April
 
2010
 
was
 
in
 
fact
 
the
 
wave
 
2
 
primary
 
degree
 
counter
 
trend
 
rally
 
that
 
I
 
had
 
labelled
 
it.
 
 
Importantly,
 
the
 
primary
 
and
 
intermediate
 
degree
 
trend
 
is
 
now
 
aligned
 
with
 
the
 
cycle
 
degree
 
trend
 
and
 
I
 
expect
 
the
 
minor
 
and
 
minute
 
degree
 
trends
 
to
 
turn
 
down
 
shortly.
 
 
Of 
 
note
 
recently
 
was
 
the
 
large
 
move
 
in
 
the
 
index
 
on
 
Monday
 
night
 
and
 
the
 
corresponding
 
large
 
move
 
in
 
the
 
ETF
 
as
 
displayed
 
above.
 
Of 
 
interest
 
was
 
that
 
this
 
move
 
in
 
the
 
ETF
 
came
 
on
 
volume
 
that
 
was
 
lower
 
than
 
the
 
previous
 
2
 
bars.
 
This
 
mark
 
up
 
on
 
lower
 
volume
 
could
 
be
 
a
 
test
 
by
 
institutions
 
to
 
determine
 
whether
 
there
 
are
 
any
 
buyers
 
prepared
 
to
 
buy
 
at
 
higher
 
prices.
 
With
 
the
 
next
 
bar
 
closing
 
down,
 
this
 
is
 
of 
 
some
 
concern
 
also
 
and
 
a
 
potential
 
sign
 
of 
 
weakness.
 
It
 
does
 
however,
 
come
 
with
 
a
 
low
 
level
 
of 
 
conviction
 
as
 
the
 
volume
 
on
 
last
 
night’s
 
down
 
bar
 
was
 
not
 
overly
 
supportive.
 
Institutions
 
will
 
likely
 
further
 
test
 
this
 
resistance
 
before
 
the
 
minute
 
and
 
minor
 
trends
 
change
 
meaningfully.
 
Chart
 
3
 
 –
 
US
 
S&P
 
500
 
 –
 
An
 
even
 
closer
 
look
 
 
The
 
S&P
 
500
 
has
 
now
 
corrected
 
up
 
to
 
the
 
area
 
of 
 
the
 
4
th
 
wave
 
of 
 
the
 
previous
 
decline.
 
Elliott
 
Wave
 
guidelines
 
suggest
 
that
 
corrective
 
waves
 
tend
 
to,
 
but
 
do
 
not
 
always,
 
correct
 
back
 
to
 
the
 
level
 
of 
 
the
 
previous
 
4
th
 
wave.
 
 
It
 
is
 
therefore
 
not
 
surprising
 
to
 
see
 
the
 
large
 
upthrust
 
which
 
occurred
 
on
 
Monday
 
night
 
as
 
institutions
 
test
 
this
 
resistance
 
level
 
for
 
further
 
demand.
 

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