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WV-01 Oliverio Internal

WV-01 Oliverio Internal

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Categories:Types, Research
Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Aug 04, 2010
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03/10/2014

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MEMORANDUMTO:
Interested Parties
FROM:
Hamilton Campaigns
DATE:
August 3, 2010
RE:
Polling in West Virginia’s 1
st
Congressional District
1
 
Key Findings1. Democrat Mike Oliverio begins the general election campaign with a solid leadover Republican David McKinley (52% Oliverio – 36% McKinley – 12%undecided).
Oliverio’s lead is especially significant in a district where the genericvote preference is statistically tied (41% Democrat – 42% Republican – 17%undecided) and where President Obama’s job rating is very negative (30% positive –68% negative; 44%
 poor 
).
 2. Oliverio has a significant name identification advantage over McKinley.
Acompetitive primary with six weeks of television helped Oliverio build a strong imagein the district. Oliverio’s favorability rating (57% favorable – 21% unfavorable – 21%cannot rate) is stronger than McKinley’s (34% favorable – 13% unfavorable – 53%cannot rate). Also, a majority of voters say that Oliverio “is honest” and “hasintegrity.”
3. Joe Manchin is currently in control of the U.S. Senate special election in amatch-up against Republican John Raese (62% Manchin – 30% Raese – 8%undecided).
Having the popular Governor Manchin on the ballot will only helpOliverio in his bid to defeat McKinley. Manchin’s job rating (82% positive – 18%negative) is strong with voters across the board.
Bottomline
Democrats are swimming upstream in most competitive Congressional districts acrossthe country. In this district, however, Mike Oliverio has a strong image with Democrats,Republicans, and Independents. Oliverio’s solid lead will begin to narrow as McKinleybecomes better known and when the inevitable attacks begin. But with the resources tocontinue building on Oliverio’s non-partisan image and to defend from the attacks, thiscampaign is well positioned to retain this Democratic seat, despite an unfriendly nationalpolitical environment.
1
 
This memo is based on a survey of 400 registered voters who are likely to vote in the November General Election in West Virginia’s 1
st 
 Congressional District. Hamilton Campaigns conducted telephone interviewing July 30- August 2, 2010. The margin of error for a sampleof this size is ±4.9 percentage points, at the 95% confidence level.
 
 MASTER QUESTIONNAIRE n=400 WV CD 1 GE July 30 August 2, 2010 JOB# 3823
Hello, my name is (first & last name) from National Research. We are conducting a poll of people’s opinions toward public affairs and current events andthis number was selected at random. According to the research procedure, I have to speak to the youngest ________ in the household who is 18 andover and at home. (Go to QA.)
Gender: (DON’T ASK, JUST RECORD)
Male...........................................................................................................48Female......................................................................................................52
Could you please tell me—is your age: (READ LIST)
 Under 30________________ 6 50-54________________1430-34___________________ 3 55-59________________1735-39___________________ 3 60-64________________1740-44___________________ 5 65-69________________ 745-49___________________ 8 70+_________________19(VOL) DK/RF_________ 1
Are you or anyone in your household a member of a union?
R Union Member.......................................................................................13Household Union Member........................................................................10No member in household/dk/refuse ........................................................78
And what was the last grade you completed in school? (IFPRESENTLY IN GRADUATE SCHOOL, RECORD "COLLEGE GRAD")
 0-11
th
grades...................................................................................................412 (high school graduate)............................................................................2912 + (business school or some college).....................................................28College graduate..........................................................................................20Graduate/Professional degree.....................................................................18Don't know/Refuse........................................................................................1
And just to make sure we have a representative sample, would youplease tell me whether you are from a Hispanic, Latino, or Spanishspeaking background? (IF NO) What is your race – white, black,Asian, Native American, or something else?
 White..........................................................................................................94Black............................................................................................................1Hispanic (Puerto Rican, Mexican, Cuban, etc).........................................1Asian.............................................................................................................*Native American...........................................................................................*Other............................................................................................................2Don’t know/Refuse......................................................................................2(
IF WHITE)Do you consider yourself to be of Italian-American descent?
Yes............................................................................................................11No/refuse/don’t know...............................................................................83NA............................................................................................................. 6
A. Are you registered to vote at this address in West Virginia?
(IF YES)
Are you actually registered as aDemocrat, a Republican, or something else?
(RESPONDENT MUST BE REGISTERED TO VOTE --TERMINATE ALL OTHERS)
 YES: Registered Democrat............................................................................................................... 51YES: Registered: Republican............................................................................................................ 35YES: Registered: Independent/something else................................................................................. 14NO: Not Registered
TERMINATE
..................................................................................................
X
Don't know/Refuse –
TERMINATE
.....................................................................................................
X
B. As you may know, there will be a general election in November for Congress, state and local offices, and aspecial election for U.S. Senate to replace the late Robert Byrd. As things stand now, how likely are you tovote in this general election – certain, probably, 50-50, or might you not
 
get a chance to vote?
(RESPONDENT MUST BE “CERTAIN” OR “PROBABLY” TO VOTE—TERMINATE ALL OTHERS)
Certain to vote.................................................................................................................................... 82Probably will vote................................................................................................................................ 1850-50 --
TERMINATE
.........................................................................................................................
X
Might Not –
TERMINATE
...................................................................................................................
X
Don’t know /Refuse –
TERMINATE
...................................................................................................
X
 
West Virginia CD 1 Job #3823 Page: 2
 
Copyright2010
 
1. Generally speaking, do you think that the United States is moving in the right direction, or do you think thatthings are off track and moving in the wrong direction?Right direction..................................................................................................................................... 21(VOL) Mixed....................................................................................................................................... 4Wrong direction.................................................................................................................................. 71Don’t know/Refuse............................................................................................................................. 32. How would you rate the economy in your area today is it in very good shape, fairly good, fairly bad, or verybad shape?Very good shape................................................................................................................................ 2Fairly good.......................................................................................................................................... 34(VOL) Don’t know/Refuse................................................................................................................... 2Fairly bad............................................................................................................................................ 37Very bad shape.................................................................................................................................. 263. Suppose the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you support
(READ AND ROTATE)
theDemocratic candidate or the Republican candidate?
(IF UNDECIDED)
Well, which one do you lean towardat this time?The Republican candidate ................................................................................................................. 42The Democratic candidate.................................................................................................................. 41Undecided.......................................................................................................................................... 174. I’d like to ask you your impressions of some people in public life. As I read each one, just tell me whether you have avery favorable opinion of that person, a somewhat favorable opinion, a somewhat unfavorable opinion, or a veryunfavorable opinion. If you don’t recognize them, just say so. Here’s the first one.... (
REPEAT RESPONSES
)
(RANDOMIZE)
VERYFAV.S’WHATFAV.(VOL)A LITTLEOF BOTHS’WHATUNFAVVERYUNFAVRECOGNIZENAME, BUTCAN’T RATEDON’TRECOG-NIZE
a. Mike Oliverio 13 45 2 15 4 15 6b. David McKinley 6 28 * 9 4 17 36c. [INTERNAL]d. [INTERNAL]e. [INTERNAL]

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