The Predominant Climatic Factors for the Last 400,000 Years

Global Warming for Scientists and Thoughtful EnvironmentalistsI thought that you might be interested.

Global warming

is a "

hot

" topic lately

.

I’ve discovered a genetic

climatic cycle

that explains the co-variances in the Vostok ice coredata which includes most of the present day

global warming

. We can best predict the future byunderstanding the controlling factors of the past!The genetic

climatic cycle

has functional elements in common with the Pennsylvanian agecyclothem

,

!4

and Pete Vail's global cycle charts

.

!3

World climates and geologic cycles havevaried due to these same co-variant factors for hundreds of million of years

!

The Antarctic ice varves supply a unique continuous geologic record. The genetic

climatic cycle

explains the rapid transgressions that punctuate our

geologic record

.

!3

These cycles are thelatest genetic refinement to chrono-stratigraphy that merit serious geologic consideration.The public technical paper below explains the co-variant factors that act in accordance with

physical laws

that are bounded by the earth’s

physical limits

. Jean-Robert Petit

!1

reviewed itand provided many helpful suggestions.I'll respond to any enquiring e-mails that arise from this cyclic climatic-geologic revelation. I couldalso give a talk to any group that is interested. Supporting technical papers are hyperlinked for readers that have more than a casual interest.Please feel free to

forward

this on to a person that might be interested in

global warming

or becoming a scientist. (i.e.) one who proposes

hypotheses

and tests them with

data

.

Phil Holbrook

The Predominant Factors controlling Climatic Cyclesand Global warming for the Last 400,000 years

by Phil Holbrook Ph.D.

Climatic cycles have occurred hundreds of times throughout geologic history. We can best adapt to the mostrecent

global warming

and predict future changes by understanding the physical interactions and feedbacksthat have controlled climatic cycles throughout geologic history.

The earth’s average temperature has been in the lower range of liquid water for the lastsix hundred million (600,000,000) years. The earth’s average temperature is now only 0.4degrees Celsius warmer than the UN 1990 datum. It has been 9 degrees Celsius cooler and +3 degrees Celsius warmer in the last 400,000 years.There is no reason to predict outside this range in the foreseeable future. The

mass

of

[water+ice]

and

carbon

on earth are

essentially fixed

. Pleistocene and Holoceneclimatic cycles are predominantly driven by phase changes between

water

and

ice

near the earth’s north and south poles

.

These phase changes have accompanying

albedoextremes

which accelerate the transitions between warm and cool earth.Today about seventy (70%) percent of the earth’s surface is covered by oceans. Aboutthree percent (3%) is covered by floating or grounded

ice

.

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/

Glacial

ice

has covered up to thirty (30%) four times in the last four hundred thousand(400,000) years. The ocean full maximum is the

water

phase extreme of a naturalclimatic cycle.There is a complementary

ice

phase extreme

with accompanies glacial sea level lowstands. The earth’s climate toggles between these

water

phase extremes which havecorresponding global

energy

(

temperature

) extremes and

albedo

extremes.It appears as if the earth has toggled between the complementary

water

-

albedo

extremesfour times in the last 400,000 years. There is a

genetic climatic cycle

in which the

predominant controlling factors

are deterministically inter-related.The average temperature of the earth is a balance of solar

energy

in vs. surface

energy

radiated back out into space.

Albedo

(reflectance) and absorbed solar

energy

are

complementary

thermal balance relationships. What isn’t reflected is absorbed and viceversa. Oceanic and atmospheric

albedo

control

global temperature

.

Observed climatic patterns over the last 400,000years

There are thin annual accumulations of polar snow that record each summer and winter. Evidence of the four

preceding climatic cycles can be found in ice cores near the South Pole of Antarctica. These seasonal layers havealso been radioactivity age dated.

The most recent

global warming

was initiated about twelve thousand years ago coincidentwith clearer skies. Clear skies are the

initial causal factor

in all the

last four

global

warming

cycles

!

The primary source article is “

Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years fromthe Vostok ice core, Antarctica”, 1999, Petit J.R.

!1

et al.,

Nature 399: 429-436

.

The chartbelow shows how the

predominant controlling factors

varied in each of the four climatic cycle over 420,000years. I have added annotations which any scientific reader can examine and hopefully understand.The

dust

in the ice was measured in parts per million and displayed as a continuous

red

trace. The

CarbonDioxide

in the ice was measured in parts per million. The data are displayed as a continuous

green

trace. Theaverage world

temperature

is estimated from

the amount of Deuterium 16 (

δ

16

) in an annual icecore layer.

A continuous trace of the

temperature

converted data is color coded

blue

.There is a relative sea level chart for the last 400,000 years on the left. The end of each

ice

phase extreme

ismarked with a

dashed line

that crosses the

red

,

green

, and

blue

measured data plots. The color coded scalesfor these three variables are shown above and below the composite

Vostok data

plot.This public technical paper focuses the

physical laws

,

physical properties

and

natural limits

that tend toexplain the very interesting patterns that we observe. I don’t believe that there is a question on the

laws,properties

or

limits

. If the

laws

and

limits

agree with the

data

, we have a justifiable

genetic climate cyclehypothesis

. Anyone can test and verify this complex hypothesis with

data

as is done below.

The

low Albedo thermal spikes

correspond to

liquid

water

phase extremes. These will beexplained below in

General and detailedAlbedoconsiderations

.

Summary Interpretations of Vostok Antarctica IceCore Data

There is a general pattern of

genetic climatic cycles

in the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years. Eachcycle begins a slow and erratic

gradual cooling

for over more than eighty thousand (>80,000) years.The similarity and parallelism between

Carbon Dioxide

and

δ

16

temperature

occurred well before the industrialage. The causality is uncertain and open to question.The

gradual cooling

is followed by a sudden rapid

temperature

increase or

thermal spike

over less thantwenty thousand (<20,000) years. This rapid

low albedo global warming

resets the

genetic climatic cycle

.These

co-variant interactions

are

physical, natural

and

repetitive!

The apparent time length of the four cycles in the Vostok

data

varies from eighty five (85,000) to one hundredtwenty five thousand (125,000) years.

Dust

concentration in the ice is above (>2 ppm) in the recognized

glacialsea level low stands

that correspond to

Ice

phase extremes.Wind born

dust

is carried to Polar Regions through global atmospheric circulation. The first twelve to twenty(12,000 – 20,000) thousand years following an ice age have less than (< 0.2 ppm) of

dust

. This would probablyrepresent a remarkable

ten fold

or more clearing of the post glacial skies.The earth is now in a post glacial period. Ice core

dust

has been below (<0.1 ppm) for the most recent 12,000years. The skies have generally been clear.

Dust

was above (>1.0 ppm) in the preceding

glacial sea level lowstand

.

Dust

is now

down 100 fold

from the preceding that

ice

phase extremes with corresponding

glacialmaxima

. The skies are that much clearer now and most polar ice is melted.

Carbon Dioxide

has increased by only 100 ppm over the last 10,000 years while

δ

16

temperature

has

decreased

0.4 degrees. The average correlation between

Carbon Dioxide

and

δ

16

temperature

has been weakand is

actually negative

for most of the last 12,000 years. The time span is too long to be explained by a

δ

16

temperature

or

Carbon Dioxide ice

trapping time lag.

Carbon Dioxide

is equilibrated between the oceans and the atmosphere. (see

http://www.waterencyclopedia.com/Bi-Ca/Carbon-Dioxide-in-the-Ocean-and-Atmosphere.html

.)The

solubility

of

Carbon Dioxide

is a

strong inverse

function of surface

seawater temperature

.

Carbon Dioxide

solubility is 40.8 percent greater in cold (5

0

C) water than in warm(15

0

C) water. The Vostok ice core

data

shows a maximum twelve (12

0

C) degree changein each of the last four climatic cycles.The earth’s

average temperature

has been

within

these annotated limits over the last four hundred thousand (400,000) years.

Temperature

and

Carbon Dioxide

seem to reverse themselves in parallel in all four climatic cycles represented in the Vostok ice core. This is primarily because the

coldersurface water

can hold about forty percent (40%) more

Carbon Dioxide

in solution.Oceanic

Carbon Dioxide

is in direct contact

equilibrium

with atmospheric

CarbonDioxide

over seventy (70%) of the earth’s present surface. Through atmosphericcirculation this oceanic solubility

equilibrium

extends over the entire earth.

The

Carbon Dioxide

data

over 400,000 years is nowhere above 300 ppm. The

δ

16

ice core

temperature

data

isnowhere above +3 degrees Celsius. The present average annual temperature is only +0.4 degrees Celsius withrespect to accepted UN

data

. The

blue arrow

at the top of the chart connects measured atmospheric data andtransformed

δ

16

temperaturedata

. The Vostok ice core

temperature

data

seems to be well calibrated withrespect to 1990 datum.The apparent offset of

Carbon Dioxide

and

δ

16

temperature

in each of the preceding post glacial periods isweak. One could easily quantify this weakness by calculating the correlation coefficients in all four post glacialperiods. These are the low

dust

periods after a

glacial sea level low stand

. The statistics will quantify what theeye can see.

The correlations are not good!

If the correlations are weak or negative, any

overall causal

relationship of increasing

Carbon Dioxide

driving

temperature

would also be weak or negative.Should we be making world policy decisions or passing lawsconsidering of this weak or

negative data

?

The Controls of [Water+Ice] Conservation onGlobal Warmingand Sea Level

The

conservation of mass principle

applies to earthly physics. The mass of

[water+ice]

has probably notchanged significantly for over one hundred million (>100,000,000) years.

Bill Bryson’s (ISBN 0-7679-0818-X, pp.272-3) summary covers this very well.

There is an approximately five hundred (500) year time lag between

dust

cessation andthe increases in ice trapped

Carbon Dioxide

and

air temperature

. It takes that muchtime to heat the large volume of oceanic surface waters with solar radiation.The significantly (10X to 100X) clearer skies would allow tens to hundreds of times more

solar energy

to reach the earth’s ocean and land surfaces (See

General and detailedAlbedoconsiderations

below).Our atmosphere is principally heated by the long wave length radiation that comes

up