In the wake
o the recent economic crisis, companies worldwide arescrambling to prepare or growth in an increasingly complex atmosphere. As they seek a trajectory or success in the post-crisis environment, what can organizations do tohelp them successully manage uncertainty and complexity and, ultimately, ostergrowth? We believe the answer involves decisive actions designed to preempt scarcity,drive cost efciency through productivity and agility, and seek targeted and innovativeapproaches to revenue growth.
Action amid uncertainty
The inancial industry meltdown and subsequent globaleconomic crisis were perhaps the biggest economic disruptorsin recent history. While the inancial system seems to havestabilized and a number o economies are positioned orgrowth, the overall economic environment remains highly volatile.Economists continue to speculate whether the economy isindeed on a road to recovery or whether it will experiencea stall, a urther downturn or “its and starts.” Regardless o which scenario is accurate, one thing is clear: today’s businessenvironment is increasingly complex and uncertain, withorganizations acing increased global interconnectedness,accelerated industry transormation, growing volumes o dataand rapidly evolving customer preerences (see Figure ).
By Saul J. Berman, Richard Christner and Ragna Bell
Sources: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis; Taleb, Nissam Nicholas.
The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
New York: RandomHouse, 2007.
Increasing uncertainty and complexity in today’s businessenvironment.
Data overload ProtectionismNetworked economy Complex interdependenciesGovernment hand in business
Demographic shiftsCredit constraintsIndustry restructuringPrice instability
- Exchange rates- Commodity prices
Debt overload End to stimulusSovereign defaults
C o m p l e x i t y
“We don’t know whatwe don’t know.”
- Nicholas Taleb