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inside: 2 • Innovation Conference 3 • F ed Encourages 4 •R

 egional Roundup 5 • Is There an Inflation 6 • F edFacts


Showcases Fed’s Innovation in • C hanges Proposed to Disconnect, and Could • C alendar
Outreach Efforts Community Develop- Regulation Z’s Credit It Affect Policymaking?
• S ummary of Central ment Financing Disclosures
Banker Survey Results

Fall 2007

News and Views for Eighth District Bankers

Watch for Fed Communications on Check Consolidations

B y now, you’re undoubtedly aware of the


pending System-wide changes in the
Federal Reserve’s check operations. The
long-term strategy for restructuring check and
check adjustment operations will reduce the
that processes Treasury checks.
The most important action
bankers can take, Little
explains, is to watch for
communications from
number of check processing sites from 22 nation- the Fed about what will
wide locations to four regional sites: Philadelphia, happen and when. “Be
Cleveland, Atlanta and Dallas. on the lookout for customer
In the Eighth District, the Memphis and St. Louis communications concerning
offices will no longer provide the full range of check impending changes at local and
processing services once all transitions are com- other Bank offices, such as where to
pleted. Memphis’ volume will move to the Atlanta send checks, availability of process-
Fed in the third quarter of 2008. St. Louis’ volume ing, transportation and more,” he
will move to Atlanta in the first quarter of 2011. says. “Communications
But what does this mean for you, the Eighth usually arrive well in
District banker? advance—approxi-
“We are still a full-service shop until the con- mately 120 days out.”
solidation,” says Bill Little, assistant vice president For more informa-
of Check Processing Management in St. Louis. tion, read the Fed’s
“We’re still continuing to offer the transparent and announcement at
full level of customer service that bankers expect.” www.federalreserve.
The Eighth District will also continue to process gov/boarddocs/press/
U.S. Postal Service money orders and U.S. Trea- other/2007/20070626/
sury checks, including Philadelphia’s volume start- default.htm. n
ing in mid-2008, making St. Louis the only Fed

Go Direct Converts More Than 1 Million Accounts to Direct Deposit

T he Go Direct campaign has converted more than 1 million


federal benefit checks to direct deposit since the U.S. Treasury
created the program in the fall of 2005. The millionth conver-
on partnerships with community organizations, including banks,
credit unions and other financial institutions.
Memphis, which served as the sole Eighth District pilot location
sion came in June. More than 60,000 of these conversions before the program went national, has several local organizations
came from the Eighth District alone. involved. Visit www.godirect.org to learn all about the program and
Go Direct is designed to protect recipients of Social Security www.godirect.org/partners/partners_localRegional.cfm to view
and other federal benefits from fraud and identity theft and a list of local and regional organizations. If you are interested in
give them greater control over their money by switching them having your bank or institution become a partner, call Go Direct at
from paper checks to direct deposit. The program relies heavily 952-346-6055 or click the Partners link on the web site. n
Feditorial
Innovation Conference Showcases
Fed’s Outreach Efforts
By David A. Sapenaro, first vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S ome time ago, the Federal Reserve


Bank of St. Louis began focusing
on greatly enhancing our outreach
to explore new topics and ideas that will be of
interest to you, while continuing to offer the
vehicles you’ve come to value. Our current pro-
grams include Economic Forums, the Business
efforts throughout the Eighth District. and Economic Research Group (BERG), the
The goal was—and is—to be a vital resource Center for Regional Economics—8th District
in community development, economic and (CRE8), various Community Affairs-sponsored
financial education, and more. Since then, workshops and seminars, and much more.
our District-wide presence has flourished and A great example happened earlier this year
continues to do so. when we sponsored a gathering called “Explor-
Our outreach is designed to help bankers, ing Innovation: A Conference on Community
economists, educators, business owners and oth- Development Finance.” It proved to be a mega-
ers through economic education and informa- hit. With the help of a couple of nationally
tion sharing. It’s also centered on conducting renowned presenters, our Community Affairs
regional economic research that can be used by department put together a conference that
policymakers and decision-makers throughout explored so many different ways of finding and
the District. In other words, it’s a mutually ben- organizing community development financing
eficial outreach, and, so far, it has worked rather that most attendees left with a feeling of having
well. In fact, strengthening ties throughout the really accomplished something. We were still
District actually became part of our Bank’s mis- getting praise months after the conference.
sion this year. Going forward, we will seek to organize simi-
We want to make sure that we continue to lar conferences and programs that bring value to
offer some of the best and most useful opportu- bankers and our other constituents throughout
nities available for information sharing, net- the District. n
working, education and growth. We continue

To Our Readers: Summary of Central Banker Survey Results

L ast year, we surveyed Central Banker readers to help determine


what readers like and dislike about this publication. The results
were flattering, and we thank all of you who answered the survey.
One surprise was the lukewarm response to our ideas to expand
our online presence. Most indicated they did not read Central Banker
online; only half said they would read Central Banker if it was
Nearly seven percent of our readership responded to the survey. converted to an entirely electronic publication.
Almost all who responded said that they read every issue of All of the results told us that we should continue to deliver the
Central Banker. Mostly, they are happy with the publication and its same high-quality product.
content: The writing is clear, the variety is good and the story length If you have additional comments you’d like to share, please send
2

is generally just right. The majority indicated that the articles most them in care of Scott Kelly to the address on the back of this issue.
www.stlouisfed.org

often read are the lead story, the Feditorial and the Page 3 feature. Thank you for reading Central Banker. n
Respondents also indicated that they are interested in hearing more
about banking trends, industry changes, and rules, regulations and policies.
Fed Encourages Bankers To Be Innovative
in Community Development Financing

W
hen you build a better mousetrap, you’re not actually starting And just what did they learn? Some of the many financing concepts
from the ground up. You’re taking an existing product and mak- that presenters and organizers drove home were:
ing it better.
• U se the already-established resources in your community in a
Likewise when you, as a banker, are looking at community development
collaborative sense.
financing, there’s no need to start from scratch. Take the innovative approach
• B e creative in your approach to find sources of capital, which can
by taking advantage of what’s already available—and make it better.
include social groups and the government.
That’s the continuing message of the St. Louis Fed’s Community Affairs
• S tart thinking in innovative ways to help others outside your
department, which sponsored the well-received “Exploring Innovation:
immediate circle and draw them into your network. For example,
A Conference on Community Development Finance,” held in May in
identify business models that nonprofit organizations could use to
St. Louis. Community
become self-sustaining; or
Affairs is using the lessons
determine what role your
and resources from that
financial institution can play
conference to offer ongoing
to address a developer’s needs
community financing innovation assistance
to make a project work.
throughout the Eighth District.
“The whole point of the conference was to Those examples barely begin to
help attendees realize that they don’t have to give an idea of what was presented,
be the genius who comes up with a new inven- discussed and mulled over throughout
tion,” says Matt Ashby, senior community the conference. Innovation presenters
affairs specialist. “Instead, we wanted also wanted attendees to look inside
them to see that innovation can their organizations, as well. For example,
involve bringing together people Paul Light, a professor at NYU Wagner, gave
from different corners of the four characteristics that innovative organiza-
community.” tions share:
To help attendees under-
• T hey know the future will change, which helps
stand the concepts and come
them stay relevant.
away with something useful, the
• There are six or fewer layers between the
conference was far more than a mere “sit-and-
top and bottom, making them agile as
listen” event.
organizations.
Innovative about Innovation • T heir employees are saturated with information about what is going
on and are more likely to offer ideas to generate change.
Glenda Wilson, Community Affairs assistant vice president, explains
• T hey realize that changing things requires knowing the starting point
that other than a few keynote speakers who laid the groundwork for
and anticipating where they could end up.
thinking innovatively about community development financing, most
of the sessions revolved around facilitated discussions, small breakout If you want to fully understand what attendees heard and learned, go
sessions, unique note-taking techniques, networking and sharing of experi- to www.stlouisfed.org/community/innovation/web/framepages/index.
ences. “We sought to create an environment where the learning could htm and scroll through each day’s notes. You’ll see the ideas that were
flow between our presenters and attendees,” says Wilson. presented, as well as the actual notes of those ideas.
Attendees included bankers, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists, and To take innovation in community development finance further, Wilson
representatives from numerous community organizations, municipal gov- and Ashby recommend using the notes from the conference as both a start-
ernments, academia, and more—including some from outside the Eighth ing point and an ongoing resource. The conference page is a permanent
3

District. “We were quite pleased that we were able to help this diverse addition to the Fed’s web site.
www.stlouisfed.org

group come together and see how their individual components could And in 2008, the Community Affairs staff will kick off the first Exploring
mesh, whether they worked in finance, affordable housing, entrepreneur- Innovation in Community Development Week, with activities planned
ship or economic development,” Wilson says. throughout the District. n
RegionalRoundup
Little Rock Team Takes Top Honors very bright, and we at the Fed 1990-2006. Find GeoFRED at
in National Fed Challenge wish them well.” n http://geofred.stlouisfed.org. n
A team of students from Little
Rock (Ark.) Central High School GeoFRED™ Gets You Connected FRED and GeoFRED are trademarks of
the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
won first place in the spring in to Fed Employment Data
the Fed Challenge, a national The St. Louis Fed’s Research
economics competition sponsored division recently added the Geo- Fed Seeks Better Supervision
by the Federal Reserve System. FRED™ web-based application, of Subprime Lenders
The Little Rock team was Shariq which lets users create thematic The Federal Reserve is joining
Ali, Stuart Shirrell, Cameron maps of U.S. economic data by forces with two federal agen-
Zohoori, Brent Sodman and Hil- state, county or metropolitan cies and two associations of state
ary Ledwell, with Charles Meyers statistical area. Maps can be regulators to conduct targeted
as an alternate. The coach was generated from more than 12,000 consumer-protection compliance
teacher George West. regional data series available in the reviews of selected nondepository
Each of the seven finalist teams FRED® database, including civil- lenders with significant subprime
made a 15-minute presenta- ian labor force, residential popula- mortgage operations.
tion before a panel of judges in tion and unemployment rate. The pilot project will begin
a mock Federal Open Market Bankers, economists, teach- during the fourth quarter of 2007.
Committee format. Their pre- ers or anyone else interested in The review will focus on non-
sentations were based on research unemployment rates, government depository subsidiaries of bank
of economic conditions and a employment rates, manufactur- and thrift holding companies, as
recommended course of action ing employment rates and other well as mortgage brokers doing
for monetary policy. pertinent information can go to business with, or working for,
Robert Hopkins, senior execu- GeoFRED and get the numbers. these entities.  The states will
tive of the St. Louis Fed’s Little Previously, these numbers were conduct coordinated exami-
Rock Branch, said, “I’m not available only for the Eighth nations of independent state-
surprised that the Central High District as part of a downloadable licensed subprime lenders and
students are national champions. database. Now, users can click on their associated mortgage brokers. 
Their willingness to seek con- a map and compare unemploy- For more information, see
structive criticism, ask questions ment figures in St. Louis County, www.federalreserve.gov/
and dig deeply reflected their Mo., with Harris County, Texas, boarddocs/press/bcreg/2007/
commitment. They are a group for example. GeoFRED also 20070717/default.htm. n
of smart, talented, hard-working can sort numbers by state, MSA
young adults. Their futures are and more. The data spans from

Changes Proposed to Regulation Z’s Credit Disclosures


T he Federal Reserve Board wants more effective disclosures for con-
sumers from credit-card accounts and other revolving credit plans as
part of its sweeping review of open-end credit rules. To that end, the
the life of an open-end account, including account-opening and
periodic statements.
In addition, disclosures with credit-card applications and solicitations
Board has proposed amendments to Regulation Z (Truth in Lending), would highlight fees and penalty rates. Creditors would be required
and you have a chance to comment on the proposal until Oct. 12. to summarize key terms at account opening and a change in terms.
The amendments, based on consumer testing feedback, focus on Periodic statements would identify costs for interest and fees.
the rules for open-end credit accounts that are primarily general pur- Two alternatives are being considered for the effective or historical
pose and retail credit-card plans. In short, the changes are designed to annual percentage rate disclosed on periodic statements. The proposal
4

make disclosures and information more understandable for consumers. would also increase the circumstances under which consumers receive
www.stlouisfed.org

The proposal would require changes to the format, timing and written notice of changes in terms to their accounts. For more
content of disclosures for credit-card applications and solicitations. It information or to comment, go to www.federalreserve.gov/
would also change the information that consumers receive throughout boarddocs/press/bcreg/2007/20070523/default.htm. n
Is There an Inflation Disconnect,
and Could It Affect Policymaking?
By Riccardo DiCecio

the weighted median and the trimmed mean CPI inflation


Riccardo DiCecio is an economist at the rates. These measures exclude the items facing more extreme
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. price movements in each time period, resulting in a different
basket of omitted items each period.1

W hen you read or hear


about inflation measures
in the media, you should
be aware that economists have
noticed a disconnect between differ-
Proponents have argued that limited-influence measures of
core inflation have superior statistical properties and, in par-
ticular, are better at forecasting headline inflation. The tan
line in the chart shows the difference between headline infla-
tion and core inflation, measured by the 16 percent trimmed
ent measures of inflation. Headline mean CPI inflation (CPI-TMI). This smaller difference
inflation is the percentage change in between core and headline inflation suggests that discrepan-
the price index for a basket of goods cies between headline and core inflation are partly induced by
and services. Core inflation measures the way core inflation is defined and measured.
the underlying trend in inflation. The reason why this disconnect between measures of
The most common way to measure headline and core inflation is being discussed is because it
core inflation is to exclude food and could be a concern for policymakers: It may not be reason-
energy from the set of goods and able to conclude that monetary policy has been effective in
services. The rationale for excluding maintaining price stability by looking solely at a core mea-
food and energy prices is that histori- sure of inflation that excludes sustained oil price increases.
cally they have been highly volatile However, keep in mind that an increase in energy prices
and high volatility tends to mask the could present monetary policymakers with a trade-off between
underlying trend. But why always controlling inflation and stabilizing the output gap, i.e., the
exclude these two classes of goods difference between actual and potential output of the aggregate
while including others? real economy, if these price increases affect actual output more
The difference between headline than potential.
inflation and the most commonly In sum, price indices provide a snapshot of the dynamics of
used measure of core inflation (less prices of a basket of goods and services. However, because
food and energy, or XFE) has been each core index suppresses a different source of information,
increasing since early 2004. The each provides a different measure of inflation. Especially in
gray line in the chart illustrates this times of substantial relative price movements, all price indi-
by showing a five-year moving aver- ces should be considered by policymakers and analysts. n
age of the difference between head-
line consumer price index (CPI) CPI Inflation Rates: Headline, Core Measures and Energy
inflation and CPI-XFE inflation. (5-year moving averages of annualized % change)
The discrepancy between these 1.5% 20%
two indices reflects the sharp and
Monthly Headline (Inflation minus Core)

CPI-E minus CPI (right axis)


15%
Energy Inflation (minus Headline)

1.0%
sustained increase in the price of oil 10%
between mid-2004 and mid-2006. 0.5%
5%
The inflation rate of the energy 0.0% 0%
component of the CPI (CPI-E) has –5%
–0.5%
been growing much faster than the CPI minus CPI-TMI (left axis) –10%
overall CPI. (The orange line in the –1.0%
CPI minus CPI-XFE (left axis) –15%
chart shows the difference between –1.5% –20%
the two.)
Jan. 72
Jan. 74
Jan. 76
Jan. 78
Jan. 80
Jan. 82
Jan. 84
Jan. 86
Jan. 88
Jan. 90
Jan. 92
Jan. 94
Jan. 96
Jan. 98
Jan. 00
Jan. 02
Jan. 04
Jan. 06

The academic literature is increas-


SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland/Haver
ingly focused on limited-influence
5

estimators to measure core infla-


Endnote
tion. The Federal Reserve Bank
www.stlouisfed.org

1
Mick Silver, “Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing
of Cleveland calculates two such Among Them,” Working Paper No. 06/97, International Monetary Fund,
monthly measures of core inflation: April 2006.
FedFacts CalendarEvents
upcoming fed-sponsored events
Fed Offers New Online Mortgage union regulatory agencies issued final illustra- for eighth district
depository institutions
Comparison Calculator tions earlier this year that explain the risks of
The Federal Reserve Board offers an online those products. The illustrations are part of the
mortgage comparison calculator to help Reaching the Unbanked
2006 Interagency Guidance on Nontraditional
and Underbanked
consumers make informed decisions when Mortgage Product Risks. Little Rock, Ark.—Oct. 18
they shop for home loans. The calculator lets Institutions are not required to use these This series for financial institutions
them compare monthly mortgage payments illustrations, but the representations can help discusses the unbanked and under-
and equity accumulation for up to six types consumers get clear and balanced information banked. This session will focus on
acquiring customers through stored
of mortgages, including 30- and 15-year about nontraditional mortgages before choosing value cards and building loyalty through
fixed-rate mortgages, interest-only fixed- a product or selecting a payment option for an second-chance checking accounts. The
rate mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages existing mortgage. Note that these illustrations fee is $15. Registration is due Oct. 11
(ARMs), interest-only ARMs and payment- are not pictures, but rather: by contacting Julie Kerr of the St. Louis
option ARMs. Fed’s Little Rock Branch at 501-324-
• a narrative explanation of nontraditional 8296 or julie.a.kerr@stls.frb.org.
To use the calculator, you need to compare
at least one fixed-rate mortgage with at least mortgage products, Meetings and Economic Forums
one adjustable-rate mortgage. The calculator • a chart comparing interest-only and November
also includes a mortgage shopping worksheet, payment option adjustable rate mortgages The St. Louis Fed will host a banker
a glossary of mortgage terms and links to the (ARMs) to a traditional fixed-rate loan, and meeting and two economic forums in
November. St. Louis Fed President Bill
Board’s other consumer education resources • a table that could be included with monthly
Poole will discuss Fed policy and the
on mortgages. The calculator is found at statements for a payment-option ARM, national economy. Participants may
www.federalreserve.gov/apps/mortcalc/. n showing the impact of various payment share their observations about local eco-
options on the loan balance. nomic conditions, business trends and
Agencies Offer Illustrations Describing factors affecting the national economy.
The illustrations can be downloaded from Call Jill Dorries at the St. Louis Fed at
Nontraditional Mortgage Products
314-444-8818 to register.
As part of an ongoing effort to help www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/press/ • Nov. 13—Tupelo, Miss.,
educate the public on nontraditional mortgage bcreg/2007/20070531/attachment.pdf. n Economic Forum
products, federal bank, thrift and credit • Nov. 28—St. Louis Banker Meeting
• Nov. 29—Mount Vernon, Ill.,
Economic Forum

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PERMIT NO 444
ST LOUIS, MO

P.O. Box 442


St. Louis, Mo. 63166-0442

Editor
Scott Kelly
314-444-8593
scott.b.kelly@stls.frb.org

Central Banker is published


quarterly by the Public Affairs
department of the Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Views expressed are not
necessarily official opinions
of the Federal Reserve
System or the Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.

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