Memorandum

To: Bill Samuels, New Roosevelt Initiative

From: Matthew Rey, Red Horse Strategies
Re: Results of August Viability Survey in NY SD 33
Date: August 11th, 2010

 OVERVIEW
The results of the New Roosevelt Initiative’s August Viability survey in Senate
District 33 Democratic primary demonstrate that Senator Pedro Espada
has clearly been damaged by the myriad scandals that surround him
and he enters his re-election campaign in an extremely vulnerable
position. As will be expanded upon in greater detail below, the three
typical indicators for incumbent vulnerability – favorable v. unfavorable, job
approval v. disapproval and re-elect v. replace – are all net negatives for
Senator Espada.

Ironically, Espada is in this situation despite the fact that he has the highest
overall name recognition of any elected official tested, even surpassing
Attorney General Andrew Cuomo. 78% of the electorate knew and had an
opinion of Espada, but more than half held an unfavorable rating of him and
the vast majority of those held a strongly unfavorable rating. Two things to
draw from this: First, when people know who Espada is, they usually have an
unfavorable view of him, and second, unfortunately for Senator Espada, most
people know who he is.

METHODOLOGY:
The survey was conducted from August 3rd through August 5th, 2010. Using
bilingual (English/Spanish) callers, 400 Democrats registered to vote in the
33rd Senatorial District (and likely to vote in the September Democratic
Primary) were randomly sampled. Respondents were further narrowed
following a screener in the questionnaire on vote likelihood. The poll sample
was matched to the 2008 statistics on turnout based on gender, age,

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Assembly District, and race, in order to ensure that the results reflect the
likely composition of the 2010 primary electorate. The margin of error of this
poll is plus or minus 4.8% at the 95% confidence level, while margins of error
are greater for subgroups from the sample.

 SENATOR ESPADA’S DAMAGED SUPPORT

LEVELS
As stated above, Senator Espada should be concerned about the negative
ratings he receives from voters on the three most important assessments of
an elected official, with a negative favorability rating, a sizable job
disapproval rating, and a strong replace over re-elect sentiment.

FAVORABLE-UNFAVORABLE RATINGS
Despite his high name recognition, Senator Espada was given a strongly
favorable rating by only 18% of respondents (with an additional 20% holding
a somewhat favorable view), while 30% held a strongly UNfavorable view
(with an additional 11% somewhat unfavorable). The difference between the
strongly-held favorable sentiments indicates an intensity of anger at the
incumbent that is not matched by his supporters. In contrast, Attorney
General Andrew Cuomo has a 66% favorable rating and a 7% unfavorable
rating. Cuomo’s popularity is likely to help validate the charges that he
brought against the Senator in two civil actions earlier in the year, further
contributing to the Senator’s poor performance in this survey.

Notable breakdowns of Senator Espada’s favorable-unfavorable ratings

indicate that:

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 • Less than half of Latinos (48%) have a favorable view of the
Senator, while almost a third (31%) of Latinos have an
unfavorable view of Espada.

• Barely a quarter (27%) of black and white voters hold a favorable

view of the Senator (with only 9% strongly favorable), and a solid
50% holding unfavorable views

• Espada’s faces negative sentiments all across the district, as his

unfavorable ratings are merely equal to his favorable ratings in
the southern part of the district, while in the northern part of the
district he is faced with 60% of voters with an unfavorable
opinion of him (compared to a only 22% with a favorable opinion)

JOB APPROVAL RATINGS

Regardless of voters’ personal sentiments about Pedro Espada, their
assessment of how successful he is at his job as State Senator is even worse.
Only 34% approve of the job Senator Espada has done, while 42%
disapprove (and 32% strongly disapprove). The same regional and ethnic
divides mentioned above apply to this measure as well, and a remarkable
33% of Latinas and 28% of Latino men disapprove of his job performance.

RE-ELECT/ REPLACE RATINGS

Generally considered the most accurate measure of an incumbent’s prospect
for re-election, Senator Espada’s most sobering statistic is the level of voters
expressing a desire to replace him rather than re-elect him. A mere 26% say
he should be re-elected, while a solid 47% want to see him replaced. Across
every age group, gender, level of voting history, geographic region,
and even race, there is a larger sentiment for replacing Espada over
re-electing him, including 39% of Latinos who want to replace him
vs. only 35% of Latinos who would re-elect him.

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  HYPOTHETICAL MATCHUP: GUSTAVO RIVERA
VS. ESPADA

Senator Espada’s main challenger is Gustavo Rivera, a college professor and

progressive activist with deep campaign and governmental experience.
Rivera is unknown to a majority of voters in the district, but still has a
respectable favorable to unfavorable ratio (22% to 7%).

Despite his relatively low name recognition, however, Rivera is still tied with
Espada in a head to head matchup, with each polling at 32%. What is
remarkable about this result is that Rivera’s 32% is 3% higher than his
substantive name recognition while Espada’s 32% is a full 47% lower than
his substantive name recognition.

When the third candidate is added into the hypothetical matchup, Espada
remains statistically the same, while the anti-Espada vote is split with the
lion’s share going to Gustavo Rivera. In this scenario the third candidate,
Daniel Padernacht, ends up having a “Ralph Nader” effect by pulling off a
small percentage of the voters who desire change but are unclear on what
change they want.

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Nevertheless, it is clear from these two tests that Espada’s vote totals are
capped in the low 30’s, while the remainder of the voters are undecided on
whom (besides Espada) they should vote for. Further, it is stunning that
Espada is held to a tie in a two-way race with a candidate whose campaign
started late, has been up to this point relatively underfunded and who has
not done a single mailing, television, radio or print ad (according to
campaign finance reports). This is in contrast to Senator Espada, who has
been trying (unsuccessfully) to take full advantage of his large government
staff, extended taxpayer-funded mailings, print ads and resources from
Soundview Health Care Network to try to boost the public’s low opinion of
him.

 ESPADA HAS NO ROOM TO GROW

The fundamental problem that Senator Espada faces for re-election is the
huge disparity between his high name recognition and his low re-elect
numbers. The fact is that the voters of this district know Pedro Espada very
well, and they simply do not want him representing them anymore. This
gives him relatively few voters to talk to who are open to being persuaded to
vote for him. We see the impact of this in the head to head matchups where
he tops out in the low 30’s.

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For Espada to be even marginally viable in a two way race in this scenario he
would have to convince virtually every voter who doesn’t already know and
dislike him to vote for him, which is statistically and politically impossible.
The three-way scenario improves Espada’s chances significantly, as a
marginal candidate pulling even 5-10 % of the vote could create an
environment in which Espada could win, although he would still need to
convince a large majority of the undecided voters to support him.
Nevertheless, Espada will have the resources to try to get his message out
there very loudly, so this scenario cannot be discounted.

Furthermore, Espada’s central argument for re-election, which relies heavily

on mentioning his status as the highest-ranking Latino in the State and his
“hero” status in the community, falls completely flat. After hearing a longer
version of this message, Espada’s support remained around the same place
as above, at 31% (and at only 35% among Latino voters). Without even
mentioning specific challengers, a solid 46% of voters preferred another
candidate after this messaging, with 23% still undecided.

 THE CHALLENGE FOR GUSTAVO RIVERA

Clearly, voters in the Democratic Primary are ready for a change, they don’t
approve of Senator Espada and he seems to have hit his ceiling of support.
This is all good news for the person who is seen here in this poll and in the
general public as the most viable replacement for Espada, Gustavo Rivera.
In addition, the primary race has yet to fully engage, with the media not yet
focusing on the challenger and the paid messaging yet to begin.

In this environment, the path to victory for Rivera and his supporters is clear.
He needs a substantial boost in name recognition throughout the district,
which will automatically contrast with Espada’s high negatives. Once the
voters are clear about the specifics of their electoral choice in this primary,
they should propel Rivera to victory.

However, this does not mean that the race is anywhere close to over. As an
unknown challenger, Rivera is in a good starting position, but he is in that
position with just over a month to go until the election, and he has significant
ground to make up in a relatively short time to secure a victory.

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  CONCLUSION
Come September 14th, the voters of the 33rd Senate District have the
opportunity to end an unfortunate two-year experience with a State Senator
who has somehow managed to make Albany look even worse and who is
under investigation by a half-dozen groups and individuals. This poll
demonstrates the weaknesses of Senator Espada.

If the election were held today, the race would theoretically be a toss-up,
although historically undecided voters tend to break against well-known
incumbents. A month from now, if the media focuses more on the
candidates and the campaign engages in far more direct voter contact,
Gustavo Rivera should be in a solid position to defeat this unpopular
incumbent. To make this a reality, New Roosevelt Initiative needs to engage
in an effort to introduce him more fully to the voters and needs to engage
quickly.

Yet, there are only five weeks left until the primary, and it is generally
assumed that Pedro Espada will use any means available to him to fund his
campaign and to deceive the voters of the 33rd Senate District. However, as
this poll demonstrates, Espada is NOT as popular as he believes or as
many outside observers may suggest, and the voters of this Senate
District are have not been persuaded by his two years of self-
promotion, nor are they particularly moved by his questionable
claims of victimhood.

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