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Sd 33 Nri Viability Poll Analysis

Sd 33 Nri Viability Poll Analysis

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Published by Celeste Katz

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Published by: Celeste Katz on Aug 16, 2010
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08/16/2010

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Memorandum
To
: Bill Samuels, New Roosevelt Initiative
From
: Matthew Rey, Red Horse Strategies
Re
: Results of August Viability Survey in NY SD 33
Date
: August 11
th
, 2010
OVERVIEW
 The results of the New Roosevelt Initiative’s August Viability survey in SenateDistrict 33 Democratic primary demonstrate that
Senator Pedro Espadahas clearly been damaged by the myriad scandals that surround himand he enters his re-election campaign in an extremely vulnerableposition
. As will be expanded upon in greater detail below, the threetypical indicators for incumbent vulnerability – favorable v. unfavorable, jobapproval v. disapproval and re-elect v. replace – are all net negatives forSenator Espada.Ironically, Espada is in this situation despite the fact that he has the highestoverall name recognition of any elected official tested, even surpassingAttorney General Andrew Cuomo. 78% of the electorate knew and had anopinion of Espada, but more than half held an unfavorable rating of him andthe vast majority of those held a strongly unfavorable rating. Two things todraw from this: First, when people know who Espada is, they usually have anunfavorable view of him, and second, unfortunately for Senator Espada, mostpeople know who he is.
METHODOLOGY:
The survey was conducted from August 3
rd
through August 5
th
, 2010. Usingbilingual (English/Spanish) callers, 400 Democrats registered to vote in the33
rd
Senatorial District (and likely to vote in the September DemocraticPrimary) were randomly sampled. Respondents were further narrowedfollowing a screener in the questionnaire on vote likelihood. The poll samplewas matched to the 2008 statistics on turnout based on gender, age,
Red Horse Strategies · 55 Washington Street, Suite 624 · Brooklyn, NY 11201· 718-801-8650
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Assembly District, and race, in order to ensure that the results reflect thelikely composition of the 2010 primary electorate. The margin of error of thispoll is plus or minus 4.8% at the 95% confidence level, while margins of errorare greater for subgroups from the sample.
SENATOR ESPADA’S DAMAGED SUPPORTLEVELS
As stated above, Senator Espada should be concerned about the negativeratings he receives from voters on the three most important assessments of an elected official, with a negative favorability rating, a sizable jobdisapproval rating, and a strong replace over re-elect sentiment.
FAVORABLE-UNFAVORABLE RATINGS
Despite his high name recognition, Senator Espada was given a stronglyfavorable rating by only 18% of respondents (with an additional 20% holdinga somewhat favorable view), while 30% held a strongly UNfavorable view(with an additional 11% somewhat unfavorable). The difference between thestrongly-held favorable sentiments indicates an intensity of anger at theincumbent that is not matched by his supporters. In contrast, AttorneyGeneral Andrew Cuomo has a 66% favorable rating and a 7% unfavorablerating. Cuomo’s popularity is likely to help validate the charges that hebrought against the Senator in two civil actions earlier in the year, furthercontributing to the Senator’s poor performance in this survey.Notable breakdowns of Senator Espada’s favorable-unfavorable ratingsindicate that:
Red Horse Strategies · 55 Washington Street, Suite 624 · Brooklyn, NY 11201· 718-801-8650
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Less than half of Latinos (48%) have a favorable view of theSenator, while almost a third (31%) of Latinos have anunfavorable view of Espada.
Barely a quarter (27%) of black and white voters hold a favorableview of the Senator (with only 9% strongly favorable), and a solid50% holding unfavorable views
Espada’s faces negative sentiments all across the district, as hisunfavorable ratings are merely equal to his favorable ratings inthe southern part of the district, while in the northern part of thedistrict he is faced with 60% of voters with an unfavorableopinion of him (compared to a only 22% with a favorable opinion)
 JOB APPROVAL RATINGS
Regardless of voters’ personal sentiments about Pedro Espada, theirassessment of how successful he is at his job as State Senator is even worse.Only 34% approve of the job Senator Espada has done, while 42%disapprove (and 32% strongly disapprove). The same regional and ethnicdivides mentioned above apply to this measure as well, and a remarkable33% of Latinas and 28% of Latino men disapprove of his job performance.
RE-ELECT/ REPLACE RATINGS
Generally considered the most accurate measure of an incumbent’s prospectfor re-election, Senator Espada’s most sobering statistic is the level of votersexpressing a desire to replace him rather than re-elect him. A mere 26% sayhe should be re-elected, while a solid 47% want to see him replaced.
Acrossevery age group, gender, level of voting history, geographic region,and even race, there is a larger sentiment for replacing Espada overre-electing him, including 39% of Latinos who want to replace himvs. only 35% of Latinos who would re-elect him.
 
Red Horse Strategies · 55 Washington Street, Suite 624 · Brooklyn, NY 11201· 718-801-8650
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