secure
aboutthe
likelihood of
beingrepaid
within
this century.Onrare
occasions
firmswill put
upa
portion
of
the
$25,000,generally
takingfunds
out
of
their
workingcapital.
This
situationis
highly
un-usual, anddone
only
when
the
per-sonis
known,
respected
and
judged
verycapable.
Beyond
the
entry
cost,
the
properly-capitalized
beginner
should
have
enough
savingsto lastatleast
a
year
without earning anything
from
trading.
During
this
first
year,
trading
losses
can
add
up
to
a
sig-
nificantamount-$5000
to
$10,000
is
not
unrealistic.
It
can
be
much
more
if
the trader
is
reckless,
al-
though
it's
then unlikely
he
will
last
a
year.
More than
80%
nevermake
it
past
the
one-year
mark, and
many
"blow
out" in the
first
few
months.
If
the beginner
survives
thel2-month
gauntlet,
the
chances
of calling
this
a
paying
professionconsiderably
in-
crease.
TRANSACTING
BUSINESS
The
relationship
between
locals
and
brokers
(those
who
fill
customer and
institutionalorders)
generates
a lot
.
of
controversy
amongthose
re-
moved
from
theexchange
floor.
For
a local,the
broker
is
like
an
unclewho
candispense
silver
dollars
year-round.
The
customerorderscontrolled
by
brokers
are
the
lifeline
for
many
locals, so
once
they
cansecurea place
near them,
the
locals
neverstray
very
far.
A
note
ontrading
mechanics
shows
why:
Whatever
appears
on
a
quote
screen
only
representsthe
last
trade.
In
reality, the market
is
never
at
x;
it
is
always
bid
at
x,
offered
at
y.
For instance,the
U.S.Ti"easury
bond
Courtesy
of
the
Chi.cago
Board'
ofTiade
futures
mayhave
last
traded at
65-5132.
The
market
isatthis
pointeither
65-4132
bid
and
65-5132
of-
fered,
or
65-5132
bid and
65-6132
of-
fered.Obviously, everyonewants
to
buy
low at the
bid,
and
sell
high
at
the
offer.
However,
the
floor
broker's
primary
job
is
to
get
customer
orders
If
the
beginner
sur-uiaes
thefirst
12
months,
the
chances
of
calling
this a
paying
profession
,l
conscaerary
L\
?,ncre
ase,
/
filled
fast
and efficientlv.
To
do
this.
he is
often
willingto
'igive
up
theedge,"
the
edge
meaning
to
buy
atthe
bid or
sell at
the
offer.
This
is
the
beginning
to
under-
standing the
secret
behind whyskill-
ful
locals
can
amass
a
fortune
with-
out
having
to
know(or
care)which
way
the market
is
headed.
The
localwho tradesconsistently
with
a
brokergets
this
edge
regularly.
On
one
order
of
bond
futures,
this
one-tic
(1132
of
a
point)
edge means
$31.25.
On
a
l00-contractorder, you
can
figure out
what
it
means
for
your-
self.
Considerable discussion
on
the
floor
is
givento
broker
favoritism
of
hand-picked
locals
when
filling
or-ders.
Certainly
this
is
true, and
also
unfair in
some cases.
Broker
favoritism
can
be
understood
at ceF
tain
times
because
brokersare
ulti-mately
responsible
for
getting
or-
ders
filled.
Totrade
with
someone
who is unknown
or
inexperienced
can cost
a
lot of
money.
It'snotin
the
broker's
best
interest.
All
brokers areadmittedly
hesi-
tant
to
trade
with
a
novice
since
it
is
so easy
for
the
novice
to
misrecord
the
transaction price,
or
worse
yet,
the
quantity.
This
leads
to
an
outtrade-anerror
which
prevents
the two
sides,
buy and
sell, from
matching up
the
next
morning.
Thiscan
cost
the
new local
more
money
than he
has
in
his
entire
account.
Furthermore,the fact
that
some
brokers
have
an aversion
totrading
with
new
locals
is
oftencompounded
by the
size
of
orders
manybrokers
have
to
fill.
The
"small
spec"
is
gone from
some
of
the
contracts,
but
especially
the
bondswhere
the
influence
is
primarily
commercial.
Con-
sequently,
the
majority
of
the
"paper,"
or
outside orders
handled
by
brokers,
consists
of
very
large-sized
lots.
Salomon
Brothers'
Plaza
Clearing Corporation,
Citicorp,
Shearson
Lehman,
Dean
Witter
Reynolds and others trade actively
so
that
brokers handling
institutions
and
orders
for
these
firms
fill
100-lot
orders regularly, while
single lots
are
more rare,
Another
problem
for
the
local
in
gettingthe
edge
is
the
basic
mechanics
the
broker
faces
individ-
ingup
a
trade.
Ifa
broker
hasa
100-
lot
order
in
even
a
medium-paced
marketthe
prospect
of dividing
upthe
order
five
ways
to
hit
more than
onelocal
causes
a significant
risk.
The
badge
initials
and
clearing
house
number
of
each
trader
as
well
as
theprice
and
quantity
must
be
re-
corded
or
at
least
remembered.
It
is
not
so
easy
when prices
are
changingfast.
The
broker
will
take
the
safest
route,and
hit
the
guys
who
"trade
size.
"
Yet
for
the beginner,
trading
one-
Iot
ordersis
a
must. Even
five-lots
violate thecapital
rule
of
not
over-
trading
for
a
smallerlocal
and
can
end
in
destruction.
In
a
rapid
mar-
ket, the
$31.25
losses
at
each
minimum
price
change
accumulate
very
fast. Wealth can
be
redistrib-
utedveryquickly
from
the
begin-
ning
local
tothe
seasoned
few. Even
though
one-lots
are
hard
to
come
by,
beginning
locals
can't
afford
to
trade
:.
:f
46
INTERM
ARKET
I
De
cemberI
9
8
4
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