t

I

Applied to the Foreign Exchange Markets

E II· ot -t- w,. "" " a ~,:;:--, Prin IC' 'I·P·-' "'I' ri'li

:.:r_~ .... ,ve ' _l-I .... ' .... _I-~

Foreign Exchange Markets

"

Elliott W,B,¥e: Plrlftclple Appll\edl to .he Ir'Grel~FlI E);:(!ha~ MilIir:keto R'o~rt Balan

© 1 008' b~' RiCiil:iert. BSllan and IBM IPtlbLc~t~iDn5Iwtd. I

#1;. Valiion COlrnilpanrv

All ~'hit9 r,eser'i.i\8Cll, No pan ,~ this bOOk IiiJf!(V 00 reproduced 11m afW 'l'ortn or by @IllY m!¥lans· without p~rmiS~F!I in wrrJlfn,g from ttiir~ lP'ub[islllia~.!.

Prrin~ad iirill1h~, Unitad IKin~1lF! by Dis-lk W' I[=)rimrt LMI,

~s· lidioo€:'11 FL'Oadi

WeSit HlampS:tead

Lomrlo:n NWlS 3!EW

T~I: '01 ., eze ~~~5

l!=fiJ<; ·01 ®~ ~ 6til7

Tech M:11ilI(I $, A.

::33., fJ'OO~ 00 St....cew(!1II1Bi ~ 260 Nyan

Swttzlarila.f!d

i'l3il 4·1- ~2 6e03BB F:~!( 4·t 22 Q2r.;l~96

cementa

11 ,J\Cilrn,OW"]OOg;eme:n~,

Or.gaJ!L~zatio]l of 'me book

]ntrooucti'om

The fUfid~ooti!lil OOI1LCe.:p.b .lJeviJa.tu:m~

G11idJ =-1 ifl~', HJiidl1ot'h . li" ~on5 Praetical g: 'idlmc.s

A !ypiCHI FJHfI~ Wj:Ij\l1 '.ding ptfan 'CatS6 stud.ies

I -

I n m ~'V V \(1

vn

,I

milS1n11dQrn.~ b" topiC 1iIid~

....

.I

-

The ]1iJooe:m. fQr'citgJIJJ eK~ha'Jlge ID_;a!ltets d~ born 'dite'eady seV'eiHtiles :aoo dlLe evel1l"U!t31 'b.re~k"jjOrVi.1[I] 0'( mile BreuO:i1 W'OiDd$ ~llLdi ,:Srili'q~j,rolli!;ul A_.,gre~, 'ntCfMs "lll E~X0d, iPiM:',~de3. As ffonrl, 197:3< '~hc currcucics o:f the Itbajot "free" ilfldl!l~ •. l"iali.'ood eoolfl,Qmi!?c!l: 'l!;.i?gSlJiii 'DO :flO:ll f£OOly ,:!S::tin~D: (l;9.Ch. other, For the r,e~t, {:If that decade t~.e ~o:rex 1iIl!3id\:'et~, were in '!,~in:att 1:50 best d~sc:Uood, as their j~JveJlj]e pJl~ .of goowlfuJ; [M]I ofmlceflt~rnuty 4IIlld, uwxpeF,ience 'With,'v~,m.g degrees of liquldlty, The markers were dominated eut of London ~d"ew y o:d~ whilst the F-ar,-,iEast was. ,a dJis~lln.t. Uti['{IJ. In, geneml!, anrvestu$s and eorponnes ciOOl!::1lidcred ['h~ m~i: [oIJi 00 i:lJig~iy :::il~c!JJ~m:~,w~ SiOOTII;:':W~'Hfl: :uUiqrqid aaQJ dd"~l,ilC]y' ~IT~t!O[1~;

Witb the ,m,iv,~ of desk~to~ ro~]puting power ill. the e&:~Y d~hties. leclmk~ ,ru1;~[:ysis and ehartism begen to m~lt,e a signi:flc,blt appe~,~e in the Fore x markets, 'lbtl: i!l!iti~l, rua~i;i,Qn Qf 'Iinlost ~ilfSQned i['ad~rs then! lIInd even, lDy '~y iliaii"" i' wa.S 011'1:1: oCl,:t1 sce[pt~.(:L~. TliI,ese 'Iinlallket '~~rere tonsl(l\$ren ~~} 'b~ hi~ly ',.mrr'~iu!i!iJ]t::. l'Ltt:' nt:~clI, W,!i!~' for !i;;~pt;fi;;;::u,.~~ !;:Ii .. !:!!;], r!l1IJ~!;!1l ,d.c;;d~; d:1C ,thQ=.:I,sJ11it of tc,;::ru1k;;l.] models ,tiI:1~t cc~JJd, r~!Joa;;illjz.:::, '~hc m~I'b::~ price ai['~l(iif1'il ,:1I11dl 'regl'l~,~li1:~l WitJ5dkl' with aIitjl' seen iiOCY '~'he fuuure m~1'1ilef1'ilt'!';:

OO'uM 'mat 'ID@ tH:G:i:l 'mAJO, Sc:riffIliSI,y" This somcwn;!llt: i3gott~stica[ fi('lJproo!C.li1 was in hinds1];@):u mada 'mort OU!~, of ,igawnmDe and :~!£[hap.s; willh ,a touch, of mog:~-ce m~ 'd1;~ :[L'{!ilill any rea] I!Imdl~tam:lfillig Q:IT ihe :mar'ke~s" d:ynaliOic fUfrlWrIDefrutMs.

Ov~rllltelau c~:gli~ ~art milch 1u:0£, 6h:~~d" The ferex markets oow operr,M,e nu:idJ]:y 011 a, 24 hours a,da~{Ib\3sis, from the Mooda!;Y mo:m:hn;, O'j)en;]1g :il1 'W;gI['u.ng:t.oall~ New Zea]and" until Fdday"s evening close ill New Yrult

More sig!:l[ficarm.['~{ '!!Iil,e U .S. s~1r ex,dil.ange C]j',ash of October 19m. 198;' dem,(llnstt'a~ed the.l.egiltimacy (lif the torex rn~~k:e~ it(!! !be, OOIiis:td.ered, no~: only ~.~s ~iht, ,lA:.cg:(::SI" 1h!J~ ~.illl:sQ une o:{ Ujl~ mosr Mil:]!JiUl ~nd II<i1ll]j5p;:li~lJi~ '~lJirlel,:S" l!uin~m~~t 1b.~m:.lS, irliv¢$tlfli~rilt ,n.Q-'i;i!s~ '~QrPRH:!u~, i!!lilSl:!i!Ji.1tiir~liIiJ ,il!Jfi,d :p.ri'!lli]t.11;= 'lill''!.l'e:~~I!)'F~ 'iih!:".re ]!li ~.'!!Ciw :li!ilJJ l[ii!i.r>E'rn~Uli1g :lRw:::ir~Jle'iL<;l 00" rhe Ilil¥'.~ti, to dYIfI~mk::l;~[:Y rnaj1JaJ_g~ 'Wleirr ClIJrl'efilcy e:l{_[)OSIIIIre arid that this [[1@.rutg'e111eJ1~ ha~ In be 011 a.. OOIMJnlJ.!~J basis, As lids WWMe~ess has, ,gfiOwriJ, so 'h;1]JS the dernand [UE :hn,e;,reasoo, research and amatysis [[JJlO ihe dynamics of currency IOO\i~nt(?tlJts, It was from th~:sdev~l~pm.enlt the ,Ia.w_~ o:fpi'ubabll.ily and'[n~RC[ psychology 'beg£i!l:~ til') 'bt;:: .il!Ptd.tffi; iii ls ~ho'~~ [J_~T'!.tfflt;1t~rlii UiIL!i!!t fl)U;~1 ~h~ 'ba~~(; [raf!!le;MV(n k,

,,..,;r; e:h'!lI"';:!I;'!~-" ,,~·'d, ;1., ... ,; ..... ,.,"".,.,1 ,"'n- .. ~''I!''''c • ..,_ y.~ _ =_~.11 !rJi~~!:!:!l !l+.!.1_ ~!!Ir..iil!i_l!._ .. Iir.··~ !P.Io...=~,~ =:."I~I

The "touch" at ~~lG :s.uOOGssfl!}[ ":s-pot";' f.ooox trad~r is in h:is ;n'bility ~.o itilpid['y [a~.tofi]ali:re ·mar.k:et rn.O''i,I1ern.elil!t~ aJild ,illl, Iilirt spt0[J, ,o:hhe ~mp]clTiI~' ,er.lI~arI:rQIlI, of '~~, u,adiilil,g det~s.tQ[I!~; These &te:J]1l, f]:Q1ill '!!he, trader's ex,penences Q[. re~~tw rnart;e[ panems arui tile inbred tediJrllg' of lla:vml!1..@ beem

r- •

Ih~,~ ~Ju.r~. ]j~, ~al.i~,y ~ll(:, U\i1d~ ls .indiv,kh.Ij~n1y 'N/ud hl.&~n~lli1kIJl

m1I~y:\I.itilg '~!:i~ i'rJllrk'.ei: place as 1:0 ',!P'he th ex' ill C!ill"fCttcy is '·O'\'etr.bOllght~l or "iIli'!.l'['~r.-;ti:1d" ([1ri~'T.' ,:lId~;OIi1), wliii=lJi' tht': ~fi~{~li1i'i:::i'1 'fot A '1fIiIl!lili~,&.i' liIi(n,r,p'; '1:0.: (ri:o.:kl ~W~Id [aU~) ,atll.[l, t}1.£; Hlkclil[QOO .0" ~¢h ,a move (lJP)'biaJ'bHit,l''), 'lhe;r;.q (1!'jJ' the

",f. ""," Il..r ... ~ ,r l· j' ,1\,., '.

!!\tI!'atr~:j,0"'«1~!i!!Qtro~~ V~OCM iQ.!' t.e'CfJ'r.r~c,aj: ,am~_y.t7U'"

Ch~~:ISfli as a, pan off l~c]udcal ,ma[ys~s en.a1D1!es a .fipid VlSl.lai ;;m:81ys.i~ of 1!I!ijy FEi.CJ~ iI.c~ij]~,~ ])1}aei~1(g :il~: :un perspeetlvc of the CIIH:':t'CIU I~art'l(;)~t 'n~nd" Th:u~ ,~'lo"!;.V$: fu.1." 'a ~]9~i'ij"{j;]y i1:::1~ and ~ail.y !I:'I1'i[\o@ni)t~otII ,o$j:i1[J,po:t!t8:rflIt 'Dd±l1lg: Deve'Is" 'Mosl d~ale[S, oow lltt(!:p~ resissmce find S~rl levels

derived trem analysllJ!g dl!w.t panems, but mm;y (~o:SO wi~nQu~ app;feci~d[i,g l!lJii;; flillLd!;1!!1l~lU.a!l OO!ILC~l~""oIj; 'bci.!iI1J, ILh~m., "Fh~ lwu.(;[ ~JlP!l'O~;JIJi l); ~ .wnl:ewhal. f~g;~!e oiJ-n-e ~11: whk'h t,o' ~$e tr-.!!!dh1:g (!e;ei!'otol)TI;s.

T~:adimg decis,w,ns, ~illg dlru1: 'Piii,'ttefilisrula, price PJ~1:ect1o~ would alwa,},s, 'he S!l.!iIi'~orted lD:')' some form of P'N'bfii~iI:uty MaJysh on '~hte po:~:endal. :f(ii[ SU'(:~jJ ,a ffiOVce ~!ujd, ,a'IIOO ]~::s. ]likfjliY' tillidliig; .. This OQmi[J .. blMiQtl ail]&WS to.r' aJ S't[!L'l<J]J,g ~nd. ml:imilbt{l; ItGCimi!l;:a'~ 5uppon of ~rnu:illl~ md il]'I,II6\S'tmmli~ aei).':i11.:turn;s., I'I: ~s :Il:mm 1h.:iJs 'th~d 1n.¢ ~l:iiQ'l-ma:kot $hiO~l~, th¢DI.IQOk. for t~.e ~lI:iliU].yst ,j} .... c_lfIt "ih~i' could i'l"igg'€".J" the [[1X1l!;''eID):'nl. The E.motW~wv,e lI?t:fu1(·..iple ;;I~ ''i-vi~'1li teclifliil'i. can aJlally,sis in ~'ei!l{'E(d can not f,iil'edk1:tiC enomic afl!JilQi!iRoement$, ])ut itdaes recogpjse Wilh some ,exactiilude the state of' the rn:arket and the 'pro'b~lib~,e

., .. , '~~ _ .. decisi

'-. -.., i .. _ .. -r-" 1 • -" ""I - " •.. 1 • ""I '" ,~ - " : - ": -. I· . I" ."" -' • -""I -

pnce acnon .m OOSpOOSI,3 to t Ji)~ SI.:it~ISUCS or . ~,ISIji)~lIS.

'The 'EUlOH: \¥,ii1V~ :P1i:,I.~ci.pie, :~s ~~a-(:~iy thi::l.'~, Ill: .fIrLnc;.ip~'t::,~ 001: it does ~1:l~aI!l,'lQ!Lll"ltil;!! iPhl~~ tile Q'l,IIe:t',aU :n:tam-et IiilQiVe.:as wen,~'~ snQrt-i:~.mlil. wm.~!? straeture l rtto ,0'11111 crder. The priI1l1'~iIfY 1('!hjoc~'~V',e it'l to e..~..at.M'~11 jhe pli-e~ce ofJhe mool destUU~HUve; and t~lM'iii!by dli1 mlooi'p'rof~,1Id)lJ,e; WIrVe. for-m&liOlls. '!he lhey ~, 3-:rd 'Wa.ve: or 8 t 'Wa.VG. The apph.c-atio:n of 'I1i1,G n?r.ioc:i{Pl,e is nee 'iI~f;aUilb~e '!D'!!It~ wh!3tJJ its 3!pp1.ied CQ~lJy ~I: is, ,a'v~weri[)J_g in ~,~_s. market ilue:rp~~liulil as weU ~s n:s S~~. Aloo~"'e aU Ute ,rti_lilti:~le aCGe:PfS :um(pHC· iUy ~I~, ~~hLdc~i (;~ I !U~, P4ulL,..u·m;i, i!.ibW 'Ib.;r !I)~IIL~r ~-j'~L~H~~ '!jI;'11L~1ti;:=r ~'"'! n~&[!li1!1. fl! "'i!J11:90~id..~rory,. It is not ,i.'lil: ~il:ttH'jj.nti'i,1e, but i! :p!~s chart 'EO'.m1!ltiofliS seeh ~ aJ ~'ffi.If:ead and ~hftl!l~dfiii~~t ~nn~anW. 'iilillto.:'ll ~~II'8.fi~Qfi:rei" if'Iif,fiveru:.'l. :iliild a.wii:~e<r 'perspocUve.

l 'u!DJl!,]~g: ~rjo'liI])e allJllllor., R»bert H ail}~m~. 1 ~l~.'lj,fe'ol!le;r '~e ~;a.M :~ew y.eaurs :5ee;J]j M~ ooJ1!.ce;pls l~ilie sIi!.a~. reach a. matur]'by '~lari: :UDl! ]liIe :f.(!lrex ]]ij;;;t!l']k,e1i: :is l'?miii:'l:'1kliib:liS. His S!)l;tCf1M :D';at{;l 'both :i~ the stfat.GlgJ' ;!Und, 'liiLC timing of 'lJrades, ilwtw giWil ra:~ til) ~ur.Hjre~ af :a-N~d. itE!:lli1~iiS dll.'O'!ll~wl!~' the 'tE,FI.dillm.g world Ito, his :iJ!I.iIlblisJiOO daUy market (lOmmentaries" One ·i}.idler. embraces the, tools lliJ.ar. Ca:IlII,HlderpiUn. trad.in,_g de-c~8iolil:S: OJ: 'i,pore Iili:,e;m ,[1: iQ!1I.e 's iQ!!N1!JJ l)f:1i~. The

A.

I il"mJ' -Wa~ AA.;tlf$J'

.;;u,Iii.iys~.s, commands, AOOY0 .a·U, he has tiro. h:lii~nimy to ,;wwpt. ~ £I!~ ... cd] ::3:fi~J1y!ll!i as a :fRd of I.~f('. This book: e-n.deaiVofs '1'0 show the .g!liideHne~ t'lrnd ,,.1.. .:f. 'II" .. ' j;k . .- L.;, ii.\- ,:, ...i-;_J.'-~ :-- --d. :- .... ~:i...,:" ,- ,.-. ~"i!, ' ... -, i· the : I: -tica~ I!We '\ a~i1.e$ 1I.1iiU. u6 nas uo1;;e~,iI]!J-e , (liver Ill ...... ,pas~ ~," years m ue pfa(:_~_- __ !l

a.ppl;~caiti.on ,of the B.i~ot.it \V'a.ve Prindpl;e to 'Ih.e f~oo:igfl exc~ala:se '[tlJa'J:k~s. Some of these busight5. and gnhierunes ~ prolbalhly mliq.n.w; to Robert's iinter]JEet@lfiO'[I ,ot ttil~, EUiot: Wave fliillciple arn(ll ,otter 'iih'e fa{!~ ~hal: p['lilciplGS, :j:md. ~h~ud~ :M!It: :w~ 'iJ1!.vi~;Ii]!lL'ur; ibl)l~ wm iIJi'!F'~ lime he i:lJUVii:lUDt::iJ, ,(. VH~ Oldf i!)'Figl.rul, M~,ee-r~.

I

A ~M!I, p'll.~b(lII. 1[,0 UnlOO :p!llb~i~i:lLkm ilJif I(h]~ o~)I,d;" iii! ~D"iy ] 96;9'" 1 began !JQ :~j)(',i~sJ;t' thmk of '~e :pos-si'bilit)' of W[',llti!fi,S a "user :[i:'ii.e~d.iy" beek 00 tl't¢ '[lJ~:i;(lll W,ave !Prii~drle_ F;\rery ~ttl!W snd '~ji1~'I, 'Mif~'Ii1M'I~,'1 r.~ ],~" my' boss ::,,1 Llo~s:8 aID: 'iftGe~(\V8, WO'uM 'l!f~:~:rn.e;~n~ as did] so:m.e 'fmetitdJ~ illl dle fo:re~~]JJJ

""""",Io.:!lIrfl;!:.'r',r;. ,if,;t-I"A ~I~~~'~ ,U:b!O ILiH .

.Mitre .salt Iit,as since 'tlu,en ~eU to become DUrt;'iCWf of Fo:m~W-Jl 'EJiildliruilF ,EtiI; Swlss B,nk (jorpomL~h)lit ,~I~, LQ[IU:;loJ.l ,_ '1;,iJ1iJJt not ~~rI[JD£; n:Ci:ik.u~~t SIIJIre th.3~ du,e: '!boiiJ;:k;s ,ID:hriIus>eripts were on to. !ih-s fJn.l['~ dI~,s:fli:, S:iru::~ ~1J~ wa~ br.s;t;liy re~!i1:r.:i1b~e; ~o]":p1J!rs.lJi'U!i1g th~:s p"r{]ij~cc I he deserves part of aHIY ~!iJN.:e",!'i '~or blallile '_ Utat nate ~rjQk rna-.J receive, rr aliso [decided, to g,et eVM '[1,)< ,aski~g h:~m,'~ ''i~rri!te tke Fm'~Q~Iid. whick he liJJM done.

Some close :[IiendJs In [h~ In:oo~. :[IGM also exteRueU ~, I!lH [Ii] "meral support" WJ)({H [I,1f:. ;g.o:iug lJ.eCa;[.l!L0 'iDliigh", r.r-mLraklil!.!i S~~ ,m~, 'IbJl.Y '~]~ilJ:!l;1!t~ mId DQ:i:'i! H':!l!!!1f'S w8-ro 'I!!S~¢itallly b:e':~p!fu! ln this ~£:lF~.t

], also 'I',,,,, ived a I,,"t nf feedb ..... k f.,.,.'l"', 1Wio~..i ... ~". ""t' .;c'f''iJ' lIJI,,"~'i' "'''''", "--r' ••

!;,! ,~ " _" <l'I, M,L v _ , I;QIULiI~.... hv,u.IJ !L""l!i'U= ~ "-!',l .LI!L ... ' ~""Lld~:I,~ .;::u.IU,

l~le"Ji'~te dan')' commemerles, wh~.dn, :mad£; mom ro~.vincing [be slJIg'gesctio[l Uu,~: a ""blow-to-do-:urr ituurma~ ol: W,:3.W0!3 !':Irn3!I~ls, ,llIas ;3, il;:1l)I1i[r,II:i-:U.ttOJ!. 'I).'Q mase, Fur lOOiS't:i :fellow Bl]i.ou:ic~"ans, my s;uncerre ~h;al1lks.

ILbt:= I!lIl~U,~L~ wi"l~, in Y~~-:vub~:u~ii1:[l1.g, 't.:ondru~i.OO mnuse, f'.ag,enIlU,.e:r and. M;i:!j.cij':iJ'~:ooh ,in. ,Il sytri_pn.0.irll)" Q,f I!.¢;xii: ,mnd, ,~[~C;!ji tlru!M t~tq;;$ ,ei, al,ru1Irli;n_g i!Ylj,ii.l~~OIfi_

]' .a~:olQ' wi~ll there we-we some way ito. thalmlk '~ihe; 'mlm~mnfii iilithv;illu~~I!li VI.~IDhav,e -p1a,yed ~. role in :sha:Jii~g Up Inl~ ideas that '~v;entua]b' found 'tlle!Jir

~"""'V "I"IiI" t'1'-"'" 1I.. ........ ii.- T .... ~"' .... ~, p"'>fL'I'liI~: i"""v .... "'",,~''<' '-r..:ll a'f1!ff'i.",. .... ·I.,,'~·i,o!'i/fl

~Qif ,-UI,~ Il.JIV\.JJIi. ,,!U! 1iI~.u~ ,'~,r-- ...."... ~.I!.'~ lJJ~!lIlI~L..,. m.LUJ ._,~L.I.!"~ !'I;I~' ilJl·~I.!J\!Jjr

0- -'0' - - -, "'Z,gol,; Q' n 01 the be ft k" ,

_ I '_ an .,~,ll,lIl' "! • _I I :J_~: _·uu ,

The MOlk: ,IS dii,v:hlai im:o e:~gbf[ 'pan's. 'Pa!rt 'I is a general ilLl~!tl@~lCticm 1,0 EUiot W8!'i! e 'iihnaJi), sis hila the fo.re~~I~ e.~'Jli!1!i. .. gr;;:; I!naik~b_ II~ iI,_~UIUm~ ~~~ Uh-e ,di[flCl~~H~ :mdI iPQ!is;iJbi[ili,e.~ illhe:renil in w:av.e a;rJJ~~)'~i.s." A ibrief~!iliCkgrowd is pliO/!{,irloo_

:h]"~ U dcscrlbes the '[u_ndamenta] eoncepts afElliQU 'W avt- A[lI~ly~ sis, T~i2 OO:j!,C :palt.tems, and U~e~[' :maI'e !l;:QD,IlliftQTh v,ari~bQns" a1i--e [)Iovided m ~,y·;~Q!-iOornp;;:u:e 'iUIlm~tmt:iion:s. Pl:"Qvideiill roe, Me 'mile nl0S~ OO[[1ID[!;on psnem rom'iJit!J!m.tiQiIl$; -fOWI~~, 'by !:~c f-li~t'hW' in 'roa[,-'tirnc ,iijOOU,y!)ia, ovcrthc ~s.~ '~wd,vc 'j'-emrs.

Part U11 is devotoo ,ooture]y '~al dev,i:atUOOij; :f.liQm lfle n()mI~, 'wave !l'eLal:~QnsMps~, 'both in terms of ]'atieJ. :and in fJONrt E_~Jamp~es of sUfbstHlU!~rOfil, ~ SJ;rnple p~t~ by' complex ones aloe also shown in ~tev,!Z:]',-'b-et"O're~ pu'bl.li_~~ i]I'i,i!!$(I.~tiulJ!:O;;.

'h'r~' IV outlines fne '1iif1(1$;l l'iijotilil'tilij)1i1 [fii::ll(1'i'(~"1 ,g!~'ldeH:i!1e"~ ~md (i!~jh'-E't "lbscrv~n~of.i6 thai :mo1Jild h of valUe to ,anyone 'I',Vl1o' ]S .1r~'~: E5tilrtiruJ~ O'!U on

,. ~ _~. i:':: .• ..1 ...... • 'I. • A ~A

war,v'e :liiilmillYS:i:S" lbven ve~.emn. 'wave 8[l!;i!l,:;rsts £lli!!Y :tI!!IY, i!il1e ms:ugllils P.IiOV~~u.

~[lJ lilli_s, e;r;:l'elllsiv-e hody of tips and commerus 'illscillll ;a~d iJllifOinl3iDiv,~.

'P:a]"~: V elso provides ,p[:a.cti.cal! t~,P;S to '~11l0 'Wa'¥'0 ,rurl\8Uy:::!i: wb.Q. 'f~~~IIli"'i, 11l~1;:i ~oIn~ !t\O'lIIgb ,_ -es~dQI]j" when, ih~ f;i-t'~ l:!±1 ;Simek wlimb mtliU:ipl!2: ~ci?llarjoo alI!.d has 'Iooubile ddun:ullg' ~h-e: o:p~:UOfiS a,'!,Ia~llalble.

P,iliI't V[ outlines ,~, lypk a] mL~ot~ Wa1/ll!:i ''ID',rarlliIDJ,g Plan from ih.e initial stage-q, ru '~he '~f'Wiil~!ooaH, flyc,-wa;¥"e sequence •• ilro~gh. iUS, Urud oO['[,ecD;u'!1G stages, ,UnllJ];Sitr:ar~:i.l~lg v arious I[),p~:u ~fLill! '~],!idil ~g l'i't~:ak:,gJ~).,;

P,9irl V]I provldes rea] ,e:{af1il~l]es: of I:[,]ui"ing :!tim1l!~itifitlt': WiI'irfutfml 'by dlle audlo]". :Daily C-Q:nil.illm~ llsJvi3 'Deem, ;ljjsserrlb]cd :imJto, case S[Mdli!2S wlaith cam he 8w:he~ for rutlilro ,cvents.

r,~~ '\'"111 iQolilc[udes '~vLln, rome im:lglL1~ :imlJto ~]De [~l'~:e oJ WB,ve ~fi!.aly.~i:5., :ill ludWrJi,g Uill'C< :Sfudy of chaos ~J.ld disorder, the ilI!r1P]~C;ilftJiO~, of fractals ruld. rec.'!.!!.fshl'e 'p<Ltre:r.:t'lS~ ,M:l-l:!, ether :reMlii~; '!Pi,~D:rJm en :fIbl:1:-:~::t'fI.c:ll" d'-~Uliiil'ili .. s,

y l!._ CG_

p."--":T'-- - • __ •

---

P'8irl II Ilnrtlroduc 'iiOln

OUiI :::'11I1'iJ).!l~ :p{V~~*IJ,~' ~~ '\l: 'II O.O(JO ('~:pi~'a]; hiliu $; 'II "OOO',OOC) in, a YE!'ii!iI1 In five yea:r.3't lIT ,SQ, how do ')'QU do i~ ,and wlltat ere tlle ri."j.(ks :iJl.,,r.ol,\I~:rJ

In the foreign ex'd~ange :~nID:11rets, where ~]}e 'viliiue of the w,o;rM;s eerrencles arc .constm~y flrt1cmaJt~!I:li,g'; lih~m 8m ClIJiITMC:f" m('Fy')J}mG:Jjii:~ fil'&' i.lIUell~, It:'ttOll!Jg:h, w ide ;efl(t!i!J,~:U ~U] l[J\fl!.en, ~JJ:u,:tli!J:~.J1 to ,p~l,n:~i' (his, ,jj)lI:uiJ :U~llJ,~

~ - - -

SudJJ rI1iKC~niIJlJl::!iA ~IJ.!]~ i!IIf~ l\O~ 1mpo~~il~~$. M'~od.:s al.1Id. ~~,Miq~~ p~-

~ - -

semed wit.llIi Iil ~IlILii!; I1INilllIl:llit ~mpel'ly l!ui~ hed. [1l]j~: an i11!li!'eII"~2e yield I(lrf _'i to '10

~ - - . -

~ C'rot -pet mO:i:ub well w~J:hiiilJ the m:'eaJiTrJ 00:[ 'poss:~lbilit.]'" OollOpouild'~ng

:p,~fi~:5, at mho; 'fi:I!t,~ \V01!l~d y:urdd $] J,on~oool o[[J, $,];0,,001] (3rp~t!:IJJ In, I:U~~IG mQI'iG than.4 yetlrs.,

W.h1 I !f:;, these rI;;]WIf[j~ m~~y S«fUlJ excessive !!.Q ~JIL~ r'etl&«~, .hey f~lfe not i~t.1ipo'SS:irb!e. However, '~hey diOimpJly '~1t:e c.fI!pabiHty '0' do ''Il,ery reglll~M tr.il;'f.!es: t:llia~: have Of:lilflfefoiRf:iilild:iiiii 'p" h~R::'Ili rsre of:r.noD&il..,;;j_ Tht"; 'k:il:!ti:;:; ,f:lfll'lm~i c:tP"I'hil ~'il~Y It'i!

1-- _ _ ,

:~oo~~iz.e t[~in,~ ,op\,r)rttlu[u~i~. nOMi~th,er w~.tn, tI!L~ essenttit~d te¢n([bJ1,1l~'~ '1'i.fm. are the rna][[ eleme]l~ ,ad\dre~fi.ed 'by 'Wis, m_am,l:~ mbltlOilgb tbe 'U3e, of the E-illrollt 'Wa v e PrLlldple,

-11""\. ~ -- - '1__ ~" . _ - . .~·,ee~. -.~' + '. - ~ ~ H,_ I .' ~'~" ~',\.

, !~(;O '~,oro"" ~\\r!i.~Ii:.._.t.s, ,ntd,r!i.....I, ,1,liiIiUii'J 'U;~ ~:~, .. <.LViilIL ,;Y_P~;Oi1: .p .(1;) Oil '" ,', ~nO.sC

with oorpo:r:-am :llM!i!I:!l: 1.0 !i;aJt~sfy m ~.o ,nOOt~ Ibanlts sad ifil,v~tE"i'I~IiIJt h.i:Hj~eS pi6:i:fomllng 'dle J'o:~C of :nlaTktl-makJt~. ,atndl i:n5tu~iiJI~i:OnaJ. auld, p:t.iivate lHlJ'V"es· t():r$: as 'V!le.i[ as :~l!![:i~M;:')xs.. The Clllfre.Iilcy' 'l![Jark~:fl;~ ti!S a oljl1lS5qu.e~.ce oftheir roO.rnIDI] s s:~ze ~d.li~~idity., now prllJV,ide 24='OoU1' tradjtIJ_g ''ar~bHity" This 'Wfj~.d-wlrl\e teH~ure ,o(f nne· culif.'tfwy markets ,ort'e-tS a, h.Q:s:t, 01 ~p[ij,tUtll~Jt~es

dilai ~.J'C of a ,cZY.lils~aE!ldy ,c:hiilf~g~~~g nature, .siLllbs~nti;ilJ1 ,S!Jlif.liS !Of m9Jl.JCY '(;,jJi!li 'b~ 'miadle' ....rjJI lost~ 1i~e:ePl[~y in ~ day _ These ~a[p' ;;:>".IJi!;)u_g'n rnOc1Jem~ltih, nll1~ :rlegh~n~le trl'il!fis~~tll1l, OO~~, oollt~Nne t{} aHo'w ¥ery $h.'OrHe-rrn tr~~~, trr,an~· :;u:ttiQl~ 'mhat ,are. Hnj.tiiat~, :!I(1:l:d ICQ:I:U~l)Immated! :un as :~hQrt. as 24 hours. If tak€illJ as ofien as {Dppml1lUlnity arises, these m.orteued trades can add u'P W ,m 611iJli.lrtnous rllO'[1I: po:t'el1~iaL ·nlJ~s is a tsct tliiSl is ol[)r~me :un1port~J.lnCe;'ID these who CW,} ~:t)oogti.~I~ IL'UIOiiW ,~OOJfUJL~~lhJ,~ w,ul whol po;)~, the 1.elii.'lnIJqllle.t!! :needed. to' :~'!la~e~d,

The ~..ey ,~, any' ~i~_s~;g :rnnd syocesh.!I ~dk.g strategy lies in, t~le ~!biUt~(' ~ "~1lI1e!' rrades, both ~n efllteffil,g :ilnto and. ex:u~'ilng' fi'iom the liIiill"1.iBt place, ,ill sit!i.!iIj'~iQI1I, 'while]] :prec.hli1l!es tlfle .ltrulu.:toml·i.ffi.lnldrunoo~:tIJ" mG;'U1I,od] of an;a!l,:ys~~" (J~:'l,I\en a '~:hnung; t~paibili'[l"'" a wh.Q1e new COD~~, Qf~l'Qm maxi:miz!diOll becQI[lJeili l.i(;t--~"'i'b'ie: lm$l'!iQ";.'ed Ilirnlilg pe._rm5ts shortened tredee,

~ ~ - ~

wb1cb ig:1J tum all]oi!,ili!S the FwC'i'p!L~ of oompoutlid:i:n'l to t.:ihke eff.e~~:,

,Asslinning mlacCnr,a;Cjl ,il1l, tQU'isa~i:ioo '~iirnil1lg~ ,OI1l,~ wuU 8iiw.3J.ys ,g:ene;:I'"3!t~ mOrn pw:r.~ from re,gll.hlr ~IDQrt,~tem It'adJ~, r.atker tRm IDoOID ]nf~l!lenJt iQUg~1terrn nlles- The, Impact,jJf freC[~cy ,a..!1id, leftg~h f,iif tr~iI!1Jg [m:erval, on [JrO']:iJ~lli]j]'[.y resrs lm,g,e:ly on, rwo ph-tlIlunJma [lJ~ ooroslru,e:1rn the fiaL'{;-K ll:liiiJjU:~i:, Ooc is d~,{} wavc--'mk.c i~;8'D];ll"C ,o,:f fiD'J~, mo ... ilM111€;J.l~:s. and '~h,e. OppOt'tI!!~:~t!(",!l; 1'!, :p~,~,t£- The C!i[he-r is :r.ro:f.it c.ompil1tlt!'iling_ A:f~r 'l!2£'h, sue(~s:~J~.I trade, mam funds are !3!.'i!an],able for ~[]f'lle:;dlill6Jli[ 'ilium bef.ore. DIe ~.a~ur,e Q:IT oompO'und! :ul]~ere~t lruw :US sueh ttiti!!lt. cii!ip1t;!!J'~ ,gro'W~J]] is oveI'wheiim~ ingly d'epeJ1Jde;n~ 'upon the frequency '0:[ 'col1l]pomJidin,g thaI: '~akes. ~Ia{;e. In essenee, how shon .be trade ~n.terY:aJs, ,are,

It calJJi ~ :seC'J;1! :umm.ed:u~t·d)" Wl~t th¢ :;;,p'~gpt of ~hlGi ~~rDll;!!oop~ 'is, h~~l]e,d 'Tin:J:r:n8 _ Over IirulJmy yE"JJ~ of eXfiE"J.1Je-llce, I 1h>lJ. .... e still] .'0 see ,iiJ, method lh~t has cQnsifttetl~~y beaten '~le 'E~iQt W,a,ve,[~~-il!1c:iv~e for ir~s ;i!.'C(;uracy ~~] 'Uu,e ti.mh~g 0:[ market rums, w:hida ,it does, somethnes whh mlilld-!bo,ggUi:ig accuracy" WhGj:iJ f\i)(J:1Q.\ IlIlO,v'01!le11JtS are·tri'Clked iu kQ!Jdy ar.nd in 10 mimu:e!~si~ai}

shots", the wave anailJyst is fig)l]xativcly on, [OP' (if '~hG :nmel:, with ,a :PWIDratHriC view of'~he Ul'liroldi[)jg battle between. rIrie foreesof SlJ]ppJy un~~, n!ilI!_!1!il With tbat kimld of perspecrive, the analysl is. sensitive ~:o ;~Il,e most ~~u'bmJje ~'tilan!e in ,miilfr:keD: d01ninmce 'by an.y of these tcrces,

A. personal ,e"xpe:rience' w~]~, nUIlISitr8.t\e ~Ids pod!i:"iit I SA:m, !l.'emeIn,be,[r w1~ih some sarisfectlon run event in, early June 1986; the do]~tlr w~s 'fil]rg'un~' in, 1JJ:t~ Fo:re:x rnar:~e~, 8!fu'je: ~he ~'G.,:5" :un:u~~~t~oo Ctilbps.e (if Ilhoe IDo]h~[ had reached tle Japanese':s Dti~ '!!h_~hijid off pain, It was ,~.l1[l_1t!~1 )u_n{::bli1tLe fu ,Europe,; l_liJel CHI!}i'l:ru£e cnart fDr ~Jl-e oo~;II/wmalX wns, ,goIng [lOWReR, in :Il,

~ - -

~~:Uu':'lb' rnlildUl~]! m~mu;r. Two W~~K~ befuse, ~i1l£ d'uILaI :h!:td :SIJ.!I'Ili:vedi ,!;l

Mw,nwaro, b;:s¢ 0'f: :th;;;: 2.] 5" ~ows, :[ol]~di by a ,,,,.1111' Qf m,o.~c tk~, ] 5 pf.alfl'lfii:g!';; ~Iin!di[-Hq mOl'!i1iI.:iilfig: ~re>c~11Im~'l<Oiil th'::.i' i;!lit,;!; WO'i'!lii' rUI" the ~)iI.d~: ""'l!'~!!O; 'lfiiJ)w o.Y'ef'_ "['Q w,ave anmil,y~t:$;" how,ever-. me raHv wa$, Ilhe 'uhinlate 'Diltase irnl aeonso.]id:;llt~Qn [)!lmttem.lomW1l~ in Elnot Wave terrn~, as, ,a !~ifiLlll eorreetion". 1'his was 'to be the ~;ast hllJ['[[',ll:ilD. fnr '~he doU:ar _, a, lU;ilssi¥e tmW for the ooU~r otl]l_s when '~fl1e panern tl2"rm~iIlJ9i£~ ,and, the I_'i;ttd:: :resalm&IJ its uiilde:r]yung lDearrish trend,

I WiruS payill~ :p~lTIi±clJila~,y dare attention to the ma-rk:et [),M~:emS bec.a~ ,ear[ier I 'm~d stated ill ,my ooily cO<mmeui:ary pages on :tine :Re!/]l~fS network, ,lBGB,tLBOC) rh~t we were, eX(pCctltn;g ~he 'res.o]u~~o:n oflne wge "tu!a_f' paue:m ~t. My~ime d~r,inlg tne next 24'no!l}U,S", lill ,anlt1tupMi,onl~ I had :Ien, ~]atr ~f Hl~ $CI'OOJ]I space V,~!;UJj~ wilh lble :p,t(limiiSe tiaJt we WQuklJ ~IIfOl'ID .re!ild'eL'S whe:!1J we saw 'itvid.ence !!lh~llhe I'iil]b' w~~ 'orver", I W~5 re!ild!,y' I()o' br:.:~k Q'ff !ne w~tch to ;0 10 hJ!.tloh .. v'J'II~n sIJd&,j'LIy,. tl!!e 1. 0 .l11'i11'U!te iP'i~lte:m resolved :iinm a ~~lii.1rh~Mi~Ii!! lriafi1lg]e"~ fI! \"fc'oTy if'O~ ia'lrtl~ indicamr t~l\l!ll irrer:eeiL~ rhe final phiase 0:[ anexisi:in.;g movenlent" :[ waJlctLOO:im nJ.8iCma~im1 asthefinal "~hrrus.1'·; eceelersred 00 (he np;;s:rdle. h Wa-"S ,tE1~ signal wt6~l1!ld beea wal:tmg :f'Ori, [tIJ (IOn,~' elusive e'!;,'j,deilce lhat the :hmQ:luh Cloowl'rda:m]00, phase W.a5"tiiver. U was tiP!l~ to 'D,IU:m. :ill:lro a doHar ibear once agaiIlt" I ~]urEied!Xli '1):Y,pt: ,111! t~ie~Jliro:fi!t .. andl-':;~;C;~ co;L]jl Q'I,;'(?]"' ~ R,C'y;~[js, liL-ctw(\l~'k" iID:oil!ooly :W-miilili.i~ ~~; J;q;!;.t::5 PJints ,!~hy of the i~j;f',oFetic~lI 'Illllrn.jng poi.n1i' iil'~' 1, :3;430, 'Ilh:e ~On8i1' begiMlJ to

nmeiJ,~v~" An ~tour later, it w,~, down lWQ 'p~elln,]gs; ~.t. was 16'p':[.Mriligs lower '~en. d1a.ys ]~m.er.

n' '\v:!!!s m~.Jdr.ii~:y ~:{:i, prove' ih:3.~ :3. pi1!nQE1tic:3:!itt;? ~li1th as :~'his (:i!'!l~ wa. ... 'not a fUu'k,e. not a anh~.:i~ile:l:tce. and deHnliiEly not ,81 ~:f~fllllflU~lIIg Wrop'Hltty ~hl]jt this n~atl:l!jml, Oil h-ow to l)I~e tfu.e EI]io'tlt Wa/,ve 'princ:Wle wa~, w,r1tt'e.n.

Tlus mW!ilOO does, Iwt &~rn [,0 e-xp]@umI, the· I]JJtl,o.nille for tlIlc E[hofut Wave Tht::or:'Y ~ IiIDe: teach its ihas:ltS." Severnl e::mmh3.i1it 'IbOOK$'"' Or!!. w~ve :prin.;,i,p]c :F!aIil~.c-n~l::;, h!l'l';-'C been wi[~~l'~ 'b)' .h~~d)i' ~~J~imcd !i!;'!Ji~ro[5., 50' '[ do RiI]!~' irnem:ll to,('QII;'E>~thls ~U-,bem'f'(i1 mfi a.~.dn, l'ne 'm.am :plII:r_pose of'this IUilBI:W] is, IiO show bow to 'use the· 'Dt.llld,P]esl~id down bv R~iDllJ N. E[lio~t m the early J930\:. '10 m~ ,b:iowl\ed,ge~ [nero is ilia, book ''WriJu:enl as ye~, on hew to use '~h"0S~ :Vrku. Couples on [iIj real ~time b asis, l hope ~hi~ .mli:tr!n;~~ (db 'thiiS .(i(!lVI.QlJJS :nill:(\(!!.

It'll ,&10':lln.g '~_t\Ol!,!lsh (l'll@ tl'];!!iIle< m,:;omifib.ei:1id..,.m:_hOi~S iill '~: Vll; I hd~ i1i!t te.i1l1i'p~~, In t:>ii~e .:'~ lJ'e.iilrlef 'Dlnn~j:g'h the dr~dud_'ii'i,i'e iM~II!¥iifil1ng :(lmr!_~~~_ 'I' liI.'i1v~

~'i ",Il, . ".;,.. _i~ oj,; ",i" - " - .il. - , " .. "- - - .. - - "Cor"'"" ~-" I '-!l._-

,i:UlSO; uesc.r.a,uau I!U.c ijJ![;ama I!-IJ8~ a0COfil:plll.ru112fS every :~u.'OO(jjS'..~ 'or JliHl 1.L!i1'e~ me

reader will be 'dner.e to share alii, l.nsJiM as we wm~1it which QJ the ,[ll'Q'baib'e 'pa~t'8;r,ns w,il] 'be l'ikely ~() (!!DCI!li!:" lVe· wil'l puzile over ~, price ,a-cdiv:uty ti_at mo.m{}JJj~~~Jy does IJ]{!!'~' :make sense. AITl!!l 1 tUl'_re I nave done ,di3Sii:::rr_pUve jl!Jti;t.n,oe IliJ tU.c· b!Jrs~, ofjoJ WhJI:11L a move pt'JJo.nn~ il:I!S I-'Jedkt~c' and t,o' d~j}

- ~ -I .. _".t .•. -~ . . " _. _"." '!Jj_.'l_.. - . "' ",I.' - , . - r:' - -" '\Ii' ".l\_ ....

:p~]1 bOOp.UC:::ll re~U~Nl~uit!\I1:, _ nen some'l;ll~[ljg Stie.s wLoon,g_ ,r.\or eVCfil",_ ~~1;IIi ;tl'J~

ki'i\[ij'(Jilern~if'; thrtt 'r'ilD; 00£ ~~ ~iIilf~nilh'll&., 'nlile: ,:';iI!'iC':t\pr:,'Ull",e, I1If :ill ,t''I:iIlw.edl ::uiia~y~iR i~,

~ I ~1.lL,:j'IlIUy r"~r.ni~r,rd ,[r~!: 'Eml)~~ "Vlfflw F.'ri#rJp1t: (.~w ClfiwtrtL.~, l.ibrtilil"·Y, 1:Q i~) ~/ 1ii' ~ I Iii': i!il ~lg A s j:m~ I'.~ i!\"0:' ~I'l ib.r. r1:' P rf.'C: ~Jif\e r 1'1',: :l'rJii ~'r4I' ~~ it ",!':,r!1":: :;;.JI~ '" ,til 1I1'.G!' {iill!l',~iJ,I! 1',001' ,rJf,i' ~ tI'~, ,rrhJM~ of U?il. ~ ~li"intifijg";, Al:ii1t :i'i:'.OP.I?~rnet.l:4;~ rs The Mlltiw 'Wmk--s fflf R.N., J:J~~oU" ~Jt~ ~ R~rr:' r+e{!:MeJ' /t";;itl',M!'lilI!'J' ~l'J1i!5J~ '1\]: n~~ t~~mht '~ve lJ"1,tt~,p.!I!',App:h~ ~i(l ,~il:ill' ,iLru:I(Joll!<.I ,~,1;[Jdt ,Mi'Jji'~l ~mtJtO.!'M ,(!;y R:.OOi!'~1 &\i:b:iiil'.i1_

In my OWn op:iru!(m, the biggest obstacle to.l!Iocessfl!l] ~ri:1:dmlt1Jg L i~11 !tile fai]lJjfe even Ito recognize :and accept ttiu,:d mistakes will be made" that losses SiR' a {'act of lifeend as such must be aqoTIr!mo.d!ateci" The ,Mati_;. st or trader who does. I!It}~, accept tli1l~';., or ter lha.: W'!l!iltn:e.r does riot ili'Ia1¢e ,provi:SjOfi/S, tor '!;;.I:'.lJul·::s~, ls heitl1leu, Jj'u.~ 'Lil'~U;:I, :E~TU~ .jU~ 4!/U 1JJ1~,vi1..d~.hlio'J.c pM1, or.EU.iQ.~ \YHlve' ::l::nmlysi::l, dUll:: !k'1l it;{:- .::JiU-c.m-CQ"m,~ss;ii1,g :t1i;:l;'~tI;r.;:., It is ilI.'{ilt ~:ht:; OO~tJ,~Iil~ oJ th,ri;:&c IP.;Tllif!ln:, 'lfull' ~'he'ir !o':igiiiilt!c:flncl?:, '"~~j;c'h n"! :~ike~ '~he d~ ff~ti'!'rfI(~ 1'Ii'Ji1~Q1'j '~~IC'('E!'~~ !;!.I!'1d f:RillJJf.e in I:nill:ing the forex markets, All1a'lys[;s 'who' aile ~ruJbbrl;mn and, fail 10 ~ply Ifi01X:Y managcmoot. techniques m!:l!Y Ilma.1re a lot of monte)' ;at t1lnes, bt!i1 when they ~FC W:FOlU.g. 'nhey give :rn: all back, ;I,mil. then some.

Thilil, is '\'j,~]\e lhc real ~tilitJ OlE the W,t!I,'1,'C pr.E!I~i file lies, Tlre .LI!:lli.JJH~ Qf~IiJt'\i![[~n anelysis pr!l)vides ~N a b1i!iih-in. I. l~.hod :for clldii:llJJ,[l; lo~s short. or' ;ail'lowDng ,profits tft nun, 'l,Iihi'le also providing WillY toenrer illJl1:i:} andexlt fro:r:n the ,marlel£ M: extremes 1l1li price, Evt'!n ~n t~iDIile:S, w'III~1JJ su."Cce.ssfu.'1 §Nfoa:srttn,g eludes the trader, wave snalysls has provea usefuil in ,g~Yi~ ,LlL perspective ot'mhe:m::u'ik.et movement. EVf!m u{)fte'I's f'Ofec sst is o:"the~ifh,eext:ocise :is be:np:lii:d i!ll! ]Jrmridb1Jg a {amewor a_g,alJl1S[ w.lillCll [0, ju.tlge later l1Ilar~~t Oi~tion. 'W1J~i!JJ 11lc' IlaE: ·V~: tr,'~ 8.f O1ali the ,'ol~;,;:asi, ::signl!JE";'~Ttl,y.1l is lime .'0 re- ·v~'llu~Jne.

The' "best ,ofbo.ill worlds!'. that ]~ wlillu rue, wave pjj':iiiC~I.@ promises in l~rm.s of pu'oi~ blll,ild5'l)Jp and d&k COOlj~rol Used ,pro:pe:r'I}f ~ the EU.iot '\V'a,ve can pF'!JVide ~he analyst -witll n qllla.:tUitaluve mnrj, a quelitafiee rnea~(n;e;meru: uJ ~h~ ]'bk irwuil v,oo in ,;my spoc:iific '[fade In its 'DOrre,s:vondi.~rn,g lime tmm 'zoo,

Th~ f(1~~ m3rli~cen,·' are 'I) exmrerne]~l \fol~'tjjle () minu' far <lilly I:radilil,g :mti.et:hod to ~l'llrv~\"e for IQt'i.Jl:. i~ mus.t be ab]" 1:0' pre¢i' ~ 'Iy. mCUSlIrc profit ,objectil'l;!1e:'5, ag.~~st [e~poot®le losses; atthe SiH1I1C time, IJlle'mctltmd I1IlU l ~ ~o be able to (J.efjjme 1~1~ tiliJj)~ paral[l'0.t,~s WilthiL1 whbeh. ~h.e trades have .lQ i~e ,pESict:, This ts a '~'11~ ~,]' ~ 1001: llie :p:iJ!~d.e.ilJJtt roacte.r' wili soon fdnd '~fl]iU the

•

i ~

TihF! qnp.~tinlil ;lIcl:!kedi hy !i:i"ime penJ1i~ " wh n ~r;::j~W '~hiF. pTlF!ll ilinin~IFy !honk m..1Jteriais. 'was tlIlis;: ~~[f ;s;uoh fantastic re~l!d~s. can be gained tn the [ontlIg;mI. ,e'xchcaI!lJg.e market why isn't everyone doing :ii4?".

There are several masons; !for ,h.iS.i!}Ul a. few staJild Ol!ll!:~ These can te C;;;Ji~:C;i.·o:r:D1'icd as: ,<:;17.-.1'1' 1.I'o'L101'''''·~(;I''"'. ,_,-...1 ~, .... -h'f}IQ"I'~'~al barriers AIr]",' i.TOii!]

.. "', , . _ -:11"-" ~ .• , .' ~ "''''~",,,,,,, """!II.! jOFJJ.I ~ ~ \." , • ... .;;

'~{hi'~ 'W'Qlit'hwh.i~<!;" ]"!NJ~Jh~s .fiffOH -lots of i.L One.of 'nh.fi 'C'O-f:np:~~.!ns levelled ,~~S't the, wave princ~j.'Jle is ~~S "complex ily··, "Tocmany exceptions.tc dme rules", says '& '~op-nOfdi ,afi:idy ""t wh,o o:pen]y admitted to B3i1To:n "sl!Illagazine '~liLl't ··il (wave pFilIidple} has, defeated him". This observadon was peoh:paQ,hlEld, by ,:3. yOlJlfilg acqualmaace who cl,a:imed that "wave analysis eaa be th,l~I.e by i!1!Illymu:: wb.., can !;,;~,H'!!m r om one t[o'·igh~,·\ in ~n!.!.l:s.i!on [1,0 the ~.oiiitll :rvl!limb~ of W~,"r'~S iii .:Ii bu]l- ~El'~" (.l."y<:l(1" 'Jh.e '~rl~~h F'l:Ub~hl y lie;:::; ~,n, ~h,e mi.dldJle of these [wo' ~ )([re~11le.1L

"lone Elliot W,:3.''''re" Principle hL~ md,!, '!bree ru~es ru:1rd less tiDaro. l,WQ dozen g,iIlJideUrneso;as ins, [~ework. Tom~e, h work, the ,analy:s~, hIS [0' see to ]l U]Rt none of I1Ire rates arJie; '!Iiolat,edl; tne e:nsiling an :itlys~s !ii"li1oUlJdI. be Uill ttCpZ,ordi WillJil,~ n WIll)' of the gllid!;;'liLl~ 'Ill' puniliit:', Chi:l!fl1:o !:Ihuui.u bl;;: k,t:I~L ciilmJi l~!'bel!ed 01:' "ecunted" Fe:r~ooj.c:lny. An ::L'I1l::LUog,y i!ii: H'ko;nc-d 'to ,Eo:rurning to ['Ide :'II hif':~C'.:'IIi:'::; yOIJl f'::=tnl IF?lFin ;l!ihlfm~' lifJ, hu~' I'he ""'~~.Y w "! '~n ~e.:!llm ", till i:icllJ1i1tlly ge~~in,~ on the machrune and try to k,ee~ fro.m. 'f,ilIil'I~lDJ~~ :f1il1~" 00, yutlir faee, lile message; yoo w~lI O'n'ljl leem 'by aC'tn~Uy doing mJL

,~11L ,a{kli~ion" most toreign ex.cli!a_n.ge p]a.j"e!!"S = amateur 4lriLd! protes ",.o.Ll.i~ - dy ,I,.~ I~ol,"''';' l~hG I...iiud o.f oI!;UoP.= 'J Li .... HI '!J.~ ... ~ '<A<Iti-,J 'VI I-a.i.';' iu""liI1i4lllt..."i lil!\!'~d'ed il:Q she~Jj tlmolilQh mt,llOf', opinien, Hnd.l'iI1J'dl te (!;em,. 'n • he basls of how 1iI1e forcx ma ket umhjJ.ds" Alld fmany, even w.~.tJTi kD~]w~,ed!ge in hand, m:i:llrlY' Imf.ket play-ers, especially ~]ijlelU indivh:llual~j Jacl:: t:rnlnjj~ :Un. ~ ernet~o.mJ,-:~ogic OOiance' ro'lI.J:~red [Or success .. Ami this could] 'be the mo.s1 difficl!Ill ibar.n.er" 'TOO' oQf~rn, :f,o:r oOll1lfort" .[ ,_ ,e:'ifBll wmdll [he oorn.e:li'il of long and

ddi.beruri:e trninin;g ~o 'be O:bjeodve - sr,IU S'~OClllm'h ~:o illiie disease C3Jl'led '·o~l!iiluu~i~is;;'. 1: sometimes have dif:flC!JU,Y In beli'€ving Wlilat ]: see in (he Wllive pai~CIi'n;g., le;gpecu:i~.~y l[i] the; 1:":II:C(,: er .s€em.i~'ly OOlliltrr:itl)' "~:·iU!l1Id1:lUill€liIjt.ar· :!II HI til.~ iJI ~;:....

Nr:\U~fl'hl"~~~~!i'i:~, ,~'II '~":(~!'<L'~ f.~hi~taor.l,i"~ (,"-I~1ii iIlt1l! n,...t~n:'.iOliIlt~. f1i1rllL"i :DliIIIIl,lir:i!iiL':: nf t'li!~;S :um:l!nlJ.~~, is, 10 WfO'vide l~e: fram,ewor"k fOf l!Ind!et]',:.;,tand~:Il::=: wilily the fuIe~ [ljla:,tk~t does what it doe~., Hopefully, my 1~J1;Jje.a,v'O!JJr·'S w~tl1 the war,~e plt'lnCtr~e wm enco(!Jxag'e the lIe®!;ler ito do ~~s or l1er own researc~ wi~!ii 1{(H1Jllnil,llle and ~l(D'lJjr~y :fil.U'(:lilJj~I;~i(!i1IS I(lr~ihe fa-rex. dikiel lI!m~~ he Or &H'i e roo win d;~~Q¥(;,r,' the :iii1luk:;a~c bci9f!l.ity of t'~ l!i!DII, .... ersal :~iiL~, eodified by R:W. E:~liiiJILt In 1~34., U w:m :no,t bo~ i:I!.ii1 e:::.:~,y ro:!i!li .. , :l£i!llm~l1I,g to T;,io!i.e ~h,e f:mf::!~ ·'iw:~,vtm" ,C",IliIfl, be ~:iike:nerl to !II! Ha~V',a~,~!!:I!1fI :;;:1lI rfer , The bigg;e:IT' the wi!I!,'ifie:h£ tackles, ~tile :~I1!ClFe, ehanees of a, "wipe cut", lBilJl~ the OOOI!si,ona'~ w~~e.r dunk :~s the price oae :ha's UJ ,p~,y ttl! be ,a master of'the sport, 'PUll'S\dng rue 91n~log~." the more on:en one $OO~ oet to sea W meet rhe "~iI1i1oti!S'le.r:f'i '~!he more ene learns :how' '~:D' "read" ttiJc (:ih.i!lnLCtc,fi$m~~ 'of' eaeh inoomimr,g W,iiLV{:;.,

Pnli' 1iI(~ 'book. iii at IP''!,IIE':rlJ ~Ih!l'! iIliIost dE"~~jie~~1 ~UiJJ:1 'liJlo~l .descrjp~i ve]y vivid. !Carn ,hel~ the arJla~yst who does not ~Pl b__kme~l The methods

""'"'!Ili'.~"'nOO, Il..~'''''; i' - rhis ' -- ""'h'!i.'i!I!~ ""tile M"'.'''''''', 0""'] '. l' f'", ."".' , """", '.'''~ ,;" : ",.'11 ",". C,:'f' -.~I'i;I,it ~I!.""",_W~!!/L' __ . ~~~ .... _n LHL~ rn~Y~Il!! . __ "" __ ..!"'I,.J!I!I~,O::! VJ.~ Y ,Y VIl!! c!;W. .... !I'Io!! (!<PPt~)' l'Q~iIJS .... .II

w~dl suififidetlj~ illiJten5~[Y" There, is a]ot Qf~iOOih in ~he a(llaB,c 'mat "the wms~, ,enermy O'U1lle tn:ld.\B:r is hjrn~e.~f'·" in 3,p~ying ~h.e wa:ve :pifilnC:i,pIG:.. !I10 'less ~h_9jn, I Ug'UfOO:!l, u~n';;il,u;;e uf. ,~I)I~iti~ ;;i~.W ~i!J]~~~~.I [ti~ ~,~ IlQl,Juh ed, Slupp')' .]!in_~lu~ w,m be ~",dfdy pe:n;;l!~:~Zrl::d \.-y]rere h :bl;li:!tS most ~ in 't{hc pocket. PC{(' ,po..'1'pk ~1lOn'1(~'I1I,g ilTnIL~Hmrt-c~u"~ '~n succese, t~~~ 'rnralillna~1 will'hie <'II (i'i ~~:r.~r.'Id nHnitillt., B~il'~

f~,. those wh'"';a'""" '~SJ':'lj - ;r'i,('r ,~"" ,i!'ifI""I-'I'.-i I·"U'"", ..... , "II ... fil1",..t i' .... 'I ""r:;rrn'" i:"i -."",,-,,~ .... " -',-. - ,d -. " lV~, U v.;;; ... ".". n, ....... ~,.." '"",~, !L1,,'<Eo ~I'_" 'oIo",;.,u\!!, .•• ILL'!;.,· !i:I!.IiIIUI "". I, ..... J 'L II,"_" ';';""ou,u. '1i'Io :n",q,~ '!J~rn~n;;:lJ.'Olil

'to 10m Itrnd~ practices wil o]Jlcn UIp !o- yaill.

P,arl: III

The 'fundamlenlaIIGOrIICEi'p,ts

8

b

I

I l

:0 ,A [limJOT :m.Q'l,lIe:mefit 1I,1J1l1~:o.LLds aoc(md~!IJJ.s tna p,ane:lil1Iof ~~u'l,1le 'WaiVeS, atle!!' whidl! l!1...:te, ~1J!Lme ~tillUJe"i[!,~e i. .. ·!·~ui[]et;;:lJ_~d'~· by ~'l~·ll'eJn of ']L!II;'i~ W,;:J,'Vlt:.5 ,~'m~~' if:! t!l¢ ,001"; ..... dt .... &:;-eC"ti,rul! i ""~ it.1: F;'" J ~h·o .. ~"'';;

.;;" ...... - ~ , .!J'I!' ,~" ~, ....... ~ "",;::.. " ,.

"',), 'il"'L', L,~..:II .,.,h,,,,, ' ''', f' .!I ')'11""'''' ,- _....;1\· ....... '11 ' ,~; 'I!. 'if) 'N"

L !L,Ue .11Ullm~relU! ~;n .......... ~e8 't :OIlll.Bny ca 1~ ·CilIJJ.!ulu<::IJI'MI.V,es [j'Y Ji\.. " •

EU~otl:j arE [toW' :kl1i.O'w.n as "impulse w.l1i.ves"! a term ]W·PtJ~Hrise~ by R, R. F.!fec'IUJ1le]" a~d! A" J" FliO~~~ Tne "~eu.e~ pha8'es" are :tlIYw known :a5 the; 'lo!'cOL':~ctivc 'W8,"'C;l;~t. 'Or sOOle:-~imo}~~, as t>hn:ply dditF.ees,".

';) 'W::lve "2 "r-orreors" W:ffl.fe'·~ ~ 'W,'lVf!: 4 .... eorrecrs" \V:Ave '1_ "The 'eiliiltirre se((lIU~Il1Ce' of 'W,a"{e' 1 to ,j is. ··cillr,reeled." t"y the seeuenee a-b-c,

"Ii} ~.iiJ. ~ mscre sense, tne sequence of W;ave 1 '~tr~'Ot!l.g'h, W3.ve 5 ,compk.:e:s ill!, W,i~I!' ... ,C of i;] "higher degree", 'i,'}D' oIm.:p3y iJ"Uit~, ,(ft W<il!."!''!¢. 'I;i;i;:Jo;[1;:1;i[1;:!;, to lhc next 'MSJ~r. tier of wavE' reqnen'Ce's_ TIitVlS;, the m01;l~me<!!lfJ' from 'Wav~ 1 .D W'a!Ve 5 comp]etes either aJ Wa,ve '[l.@ O]~, wb~~e 'llhe a-b-e sequence .can:rplet.es eilh.er a 'W'a'!,l~ @ or @. (300' Fig. 2).

~I f:3\, ~ l~, ~ ,43) YI\I, W

5)

e

(()<, (~" I"'E:) 'Of .~

,5} .bll ~~ micro sense, each o:ffdiJ:e w~ves: :Un. Fig . .2 rn~y be broken, down in.I) smaller W,!i1,lC componems aooord'l~g 1'0 t~ ,oonce,:wt expounded i~ (3)r::

Wa:'rIiEl: :l coneets 'W'~lve L W,[ve 4- OQ~~t$ 'W'~v;e J, 'wh~Je the a-b-e stii1luellioo corrects '~h.t: il::llJtu.-e ~i;;]U'l:Uil,,:1i;; o.r W.a¥~ l t1il10l!!,g'JiJ "0 W~.'!I;C ,j (soc Fig, 3).

,~.:.:

'W

~,

@

AA W

I I I I II II I

TIl~ n:il'd,r.· 'fh'lJli'~m f~f .'r. W~'· {!:f~m'1'(':l,~r.H kv ·~flH·t',:/~,:a:-: wH HI~ ·Mh~

~ J.

variO:iLls i'1.ii~ec5; ,mr.l iifuideliliies o:f the f'f.b:'iciiplle ·rem~m ernicS'~1I!nl :~ga:fo!1,~ less of ~Iile l~IiI1'e UJlDiit used as reference. 'P.atlems ilDi 11I0UI~ly charts: a1[e: !~I;.I,ntedJ!~' i~, dle same wary a's Wleek~J" Q[' ye'urly charts.

7)

1"lte time Elc.::IJl,c, of W,:iI,'!ii'tl: ~Nttt,i2::t.liilS is ~:ii;5.8,lm.:po[llm;n~, (h~n ~he '·'1hr:m"j oJrtlile Pi:il.l!~e:m.~, themselves, W'!iI. ves may 00 stretched 0.]" cempressed 'lbln due UlrldeJ[:yilllg ]'CimlS I,emanlll COJlSt!.urut

]

W~'II<e 2 win 'nn~' rerraee pas.'i' r'be: !t~arl'ii:~ii'I~ :!l(1i~ii'lt of Wi!I!Vf: :1,. ]fruhe 1mrptIi1~' wa,~~s '~' ~otilg, '!ijiJ),!, 'W,a'i!re 2; ~nJ!10'~, go beJ~w the ori:g~n of. wsve l (rete:rr to, Fig .4), [f the Impu~:.se sequence is @oin,g dowlii .• wave :2 cannot exoeed ~he peru;: f]'{)m wben-ce wave ] 'D rig i[l1ltlJ.'€ di,

."'\

l.!IIj

W,ilt ve ':1; c::~ -1 IIDt be the shonesr ii"JI.be '141j menl se 'W;i . 'E",s"'I' f'reffeT '~'-- - ••• ~.!II- ~ .• ~ - - - .!i"-- __ "_v Y Q

Fig., 5)" Wave 3· is not !lLe~afi]y '~he kifil@,esrt. btU: it is almost ,~;~wa:y$ 1~1e' :~UfiI$tst

m) ]111. ~:n tlIpw.ar-d! seqaenee, 'Wa:'!,!Ie 4 L1I!Il'iIiiQ'~ IQ'Ile[la, ~he ~i:I![[ 0'1' W't1 ve 1. In .iiI. dO"WHW;;I!__§cl, !$"'I;JUl;mLl::; Wt1 '!{Ie 4 ~;;:I!H ]!i!JU, ~-<iI1.y ,iilJhu'vt:: th~ OOl;1turu of ·W~ ..... e l .Jf any (iii tb~si) ooi1tl;bin";;j,'l;'luilS is. 'Vjl;}1art~i!!j tllk ..... p.~I.'~ti l)1]ilj:~t !'i;~IU~IilOi.'!: i!l, Iilnt imrui9:!l.·il'l,,\ ~Tllilal'l!lro (fi@'IItl!ii" F.'ig. 6).

1

lmpulse 'waves

l] A 'Var]B~iolil. known as MI extension may ilfppCllli1l" in One of tliiJe iDilplllIst:: waves, ·iEX'l.€liIl5:ions are flx,.aggcr.:ucd or ,e:~iJn,gaH .. 'd movements thar ,MC '~git~b' {'l~' {lIf:s~iIlc wihecn ~·om~d tQ"tIt ~ ..:;rlb,.;:;r amiP".d.:.:;c; "!V·ilL"··~. 1Ex:pc:et, exrenslons to {'!("("'ur W only o-ne of Ihe impulse W:1l'V\f:!!~ ~l1"if.he<1I 'the, I sn, 3!f'di or 5tlil~. Most ex~e~]S,im'!!S 'OOCfW'" m the 3.ud wave, Ex:~e[lskrn:s. mav also oceur in. rhe extendilllg wave itse,]f.

_5

S't?q,i'l;et,h:.·,~n} fhl"@.,t;h €5)" ~ ,~Jlrn'~~ ~.3

(8) :

:2

(8)

:$eijU-fl':rc:e' i thl'!:;Iug/,I: t' i,s .ri!1\l' ,i!'J[ t;m.w~ ~ 0), INnill:oli: r:.; j ~_.p f; ~;-I r.i F n r,;.i'iIM. >"i1 !tLi'n I ....... 'ii

.. Ir""'" ..

(4)

1

2) lillQ:thei.' 'f tLriuL.iUDI ~J:I iml:fLllbl;; VI - '!I ,",::10 ! i) the rJ:'iI'J·g()I.~{Il €I'i~u g,l,~ wmg¢!:ilk~ p'~tt'e1fil fo~d by rwo !l:iil).t1!'I;i'e~'gin~ li!l1e~, ~til ~.it!l: usual form, 'Jh :~p., palterns OOruli inl tlb'il:h w<:I!ve ])(}simions.,. bS:tJl~JUy ,;U]€W' 'mite p'l't,oecEi!1uElg_ tll1hd w :ave has IlTlO'Vted! extensivel y :nnl a short time", U sual I }", the subwaves lll1 Wile wedge sulbdivWe ]nlu "threes' j ra~lle]' tlhaIll ':flives··j., l..Jv,er~@ls bet'IA.'een the terminals 0,1' W)!I,Ves. I 8fIld, -4- are a!l:so treq[l!Ienl, ,~.iIJLI~!lJ"wrJ ~wl, ~;J!1j!igi1l<L).~")'- 11,1~:S j:s L~ Ki 'U~Dly 'ku:WW.l.l ~~pt~ou ~JiJ' mil iou ~~ "non ~'lfc.!iI~.p' rule ~tw~,cn ' ...... '·,:ri.y'c:::: ] ;lind 4·. An eX1!Implil::: is pro" 1d~ 'illl P;~qj:I".(J" Q.

Oi,ago:na] triangles are also foulJd in C wave pos]don~ dllr.nlil.g the "lettered phase" or corrective waves, As in wedges foutlet. in S'~h 'wave pJsitions. dJ sse ffoITmlllo:llS :mdiCate me l[e:ntIiiltabOn 0 .be mo"emem. OJ1e dc'gree higher"

5 @

8

A. 8p.eci~1!J lype of ,mag,oFulllmWigJ)e observed by. RQ.be.:n1 R; Prechter in 'F9&6 has sl!lb~''Wa: !!S. c.ompos.ed. of five W@ves. ills~d of 'IDe usuel ·IJ!m~.ifll!l.". This 'type is I!Iss.UlaM.y. found. only :mlll. A W;!!!\'tl;!' piOS;jdO:IlSii and is (,oU(liY!"COc o:n~y by B waves, See FiguTe h.J'_ In a rar-e case iill me tiorex m,~l. dli:;;. ",yp;;;;: i:s fOi!ili!Jrd as ,~[]! 'i,"f';i!i _ 'C- of ']i;lJ,gC.; iITC.~ld!;TI pa~tc:rn;, Soc dE"li!huiio.nd; TU - ~I,

Arere pa~t,e:m ~ • nile exp:md~n.g~type of 3l,d~.agom:1l1J bi31£lgie. It is. a mirmr image of rIle '··couve;rging ly])e'>l' jm alll respects. This panem 'W,iaS, nevel mentioned, by E~[jon:~ p]'lec.b~er ad Prost did not pro!!fide 1'O'.u thjs

'.. , I ~ .- .. ~. • ('~. ~,_.~.'Il- '"l':'ln· . W" n'" ,. ..

VOil.ll.l~l'IJI! ill U· I!JWLr~::s.'L ,",\d~lI.Q]] Q •• ~It.<U 1iJ'~ ,!!,;o_l!,llULl'· ~),!i;:: rf"1!:U1!II,;J,f it:.' ,

:1987., Se~ .F:igu.~-e n.

~-""";'IiI' "iI"!~~' ~~¥to!H!l!'il"O .. ~,.,.-

Figun 11

-::~]1IiI"""';i"iiN': 'b'ur~ hnWIfI ni}uit l"ih1" ,!Irm'l'il Ill"g nf .~'il'" €"i"liTl rtI'~Ii'">.2·Elfig· .'Y]1II<. ,njQ!t'~nt:ll iI'.iangJe t,endis: r·o ove.tS!l:loot or undershoot ithe upper trendline, On rare occasmrlk ; the :5~h .lLeg '!o\~m fail to exceed the extrr~-IDj~y of lite. 3m Jeg in a I f:i!Jih~re"" The 5dl ~e;g of'the expllil dug typ.e.,.however, rn .... st exeeed ~e- ,ex~umity 0:[ 'Uxe J.r-d. leg tn quanjfy as S,!]CIiL

3} A f'if!h \,..a .. ~ tCim.e~imcs :r';.liil:s to' exceed 'til:1ie' te;ntl~tJi~S: of~fiJe [p~e<¢eeJiflS '1inrl. wave_ 1I'h~s; ~1i1:::lhlil~['y llt c:liiiied. ~[l.me;wlt!lf[ II!.m:i,tlspi.red!ly,., a ~~'raih]Fe~"'_ This 'p_iiU:tm ean be, verifted 'by ItotiJtl(g ~l!a!t the mtema:i wave~ {)f' '~he ··:[alledJ :[~[Ul" OO(ii(.OIUE. '~:O all '~he, three rules go¥emblg i:mpu~:£e w,~,~es.

A laHul'(£' :~5 ill, reversal panem, and ,gi'ifc$ rig' i)O' wh~jL ]lS bllLlwn il1l ·d~·~~~ !Vb.;ll_]'cin~ ~~DOry wS "'dq,ufb.:k topt;'·;O:E" ",dO!i.i'bk: 'boi:~nrrill1"'. T.Riis. par~t'E"m ls f:ilM~Y 1I1'!Jf'E" in d~:ily CkT 'l.I.o'€~k'lly rlii~ m"~~.olfi h-~n 'i~ qjlJl~~"~ oorttmlon in houdV chart's.

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. .. _ _ . l!I'~~V .

I) M,oveme[l~, a~~ the tread are c~~~ed ~~'cmr-ect~ve wave'S·" 0]" srnply j·ClOU'reC'~]OfilS,';. SOlUetimeS, the)' ,M'e referred to as ~~,consQlida;~ons;; or "lettered phase",

2) :h~e.Llti:rj iH~ ,iilIUJ ~,H.iug. t;ur.~~'!.,;liul.l:::' ,i~.t[.o [p.iiJi1ku~;:;u. pi:1Ule~.~.~:l i~.~ ,iiLd"",l'Ill'!.,;e is '\f~ry" diffk:l!I.~~" T.his: :ms ~O~;I;I~' OO~~~.'I;f'E! P:i!:~~ro,~ h::.,v-e ,moTJe' v anadons 'Dllla!!~ mJl).IIse. w,a~es. At tlme!Jj a coeeeuve [)aI~tem becomes appfur.eni: Q,nly ill. retrospect; th~~ is,; when they ,awe cO'mplei[oo and be'lntnd, us,

3)

l,ne iCo:mp:re:~;.iIIY ,o{' correcuve Wi:l'!,lles, 'canl increase Of' deiCrea~s.e" W~i!.'bii)UJ~: w;l!jrMiL~ng, 00 the 'C:.ii,;J)rlnt ordc:ptll of .oO[]'C~tiOfli~ arc 'Ics:lo ]M;crn.'cmib'lc 'tlli8Dl :uMftrils:e· wa .... es _

4.). Th.em am several baslc form;s. as wen ss mrivative$ from 'rn.ese ~~ forms, llley are:

T,~fe c~)~I.ex ,ciOrret,~ti~e, forms are, fYfftHle.r sl!,bdivided, ~tu:o ifoor,t,"lJl:e.,gOries, nmrm~~.y: zigz~,g oOnlpie~j 'malt '(;'U111lIplex, flJ~d ~oog1!i~;Nr eQm1!Plex.

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Flat complex.

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1Ii'ht: 'Fil~"f~nact:(:~ rmmhtr:;;; are: '~ , '~ , 1, 1. 5,_ R, 'I~. 2 '1_ :.!4" 5,5. ~9. 1.44_ 23,1 317,~ 6 U~; etc,

_Adding ,;a;I'I!Y' two atij8!OOJlt numbers w~~:~ 'yi,dd tne l:tt:IDt [jrl]~'!Dt.:~' ~n llLre 8eqlaefllee- iEKam[D~e~ .3 "it- j'~ 8.~ 5, ,'t' ;5,::;;:: ].3: 8. T' ] 3 ~ 2];, rs -i!" 21 =: 3S.~ etc,

d!\ JI)'

Aft,e,f '~fL.B. :firs.t :f'1l'!lJr digits. d,ividiiilg 8 F:~boii'mcci rtill,u-llber by 'the IlIUIm'beil' ~n:lInoo.u.iclj" :pr£oed,in,g :.1: will produce, the rn~]o 1 ,6'[ 8. :E~~I1I'!i'p[e:, 34 050 2.1 'iii; 1 .. 6] 8, Fu®e:rm(lre~, d!1\",ld;~Jilg that sams FWbo1l1lioc,u nHI1J'JJbe:r' b:y tne one ,immediA ... te~y ron)wrn~ 'it wuU y,re:ldI, thB, :ra.t~o U':!)"~ ,~. Ext1J1ruvie': 34-? :55, ..... 'tl,6l ~l,

4)

T11F.'! i'lir'!te'!li'\ie LIilTi:Iiii{~ iI'.i,uio '11.fj 1.~, i~Alri 11 R~ ~ ikew~I!re., the inverse nflt.e· ratio .0.6'[ 8 is 1 J5l8 .. :Exllnf!iPJe;~ :I. +- 0.618 ~ 1.6:1,.8." 81i1d ] ~ I ,,6:~:S ~ (US]:8.

5)

D~uv~,dliri\g any f.ib~)1lliu'~~ m.lI1l:~'ber by lfi1e rn,I,!IDlbe·r which precedss it two !p~~l:ce-5. :~1iI '~!h€, sequence wm, turn upthe rano Q;F 2,0 ~ S. A:tLd~ divldJilJJgJJJJa4 ~i!IID':I,t'; ~.IJliJn~lib!ii.i: by (h"", number whidl ::St!l. ceeds lt UWQ' ,phii~c.::s, in iI1nt;:; ;ilCqU,c;'lll;:c :r.Cc~'l;I:b~ in 'th~ :r-.:lI,tio cf 0.382. iExU'mp!.e: 5:5 - [414 0'.:3 81,

,6,~ The inverse of 'Ute ~~i,o 26 [:8 is o.J82, whi~le tIle !]]~etll,se of (ffiI.e rat~~Q 0.38l, irs 2.6~, 8, fuArnple':: :~ -:? 2.618 = O.JS2; [ '7' 0..3,82 ;;;;; 2 -e 6 [~3...

l) iW1V'!iJJlng :UlllY ,1;"1,l;iif}J[lai;;il;:!i.lJ!umlDer ID'y '[tile number wlli,ii,;jjl ['It:1;.'ttk.::::;, ,~~, (~u:t;:t:: r]~c";5 ln t~e i.'i~Y~li!g w!'U! p«:i¥id~ (n~ mDi,o 4.236. !Exam,:p~,(;: 144 ~:34 - 4,,2:3~. And, d!~ .... :idim~, tb:M same !l'l!l)Im;OOff 'by 'ihe 'nfL1IDn,'b&'"]" whicn succeeds i'~: three pk!;ces 1rUiJ '~The ~eGluelTloo 'will 'Y~e~.d the 'ru,~~,o 0.236. iE"'xar~npl~:, '[44 * 6U~ ~ 0.,136"

&) 'i,ne iaverse nr t'he nitmo ,4",236 ,IS O.236j w~'L~I,e the inverse of the raftO' 0.236 is 4-236- !ExS!n~[de: I +- .4" 236 ~ O.t}Ei~ ~ + 0.236 = 4,,,236.

9) The :ral~Q' .L 1(£qjI)l21;~ity} is !'Iilll e.xpross:ioo of ths cemparlaon between diu:: fi ra I: t.wo numbers m !the :H'IbQ'Jl;!~.;;::i 5iCqjI;iCJJj~; tbU5 'l .: 1 ;:;:;; 1" The t.i.'!Jtl,;;ll C,,-5 eomes as expression between .:he, second ~ndl '~b:o, dM!rd !ITUIIl1ilfie--.r in lhe sequence; tli'iet-e:rro:U{i: [ T 2. ~ 0,$ .

l 0) 'The FTb~~u ITU!moo~; by themselves, d,Q not :h;u,'I;'~ ,any l[I~~U1Y ~:1iI ~:'Ort!CatSbg,lne exten~ o:lfn:la!!:'.ket mtJ";,rell1e'l1fhl tn terms ot'[)rtoe aml ume. f]n:: kt":y 't:il:Tnil:lilil'5. mil;::: ~bt:: :r,cttio::ii ber ween tbe IUIlIHdJfi:I1i .iill!. .:ht::, ::iit::'ij"jjUt:JiII;.l:. EUi,0~!t conslders '~1wse ii:',iU'~OO t1o, be th.e :primary dlMe~i!f.i.a!D.t. of 'Ihe, ell:leTli~ {!If r.TI~~ fliJilr.!i ii'~iIil{~ 1111 (}''''~ii'ii(:::liIn~ iin Hil"ly t1iUifikt~i'_

11} The most common adilcl, moQ~~: r-e'Habie Ffburuaocl [-e1Jat~(!Il1Isihups, Ca'IiI, be found between idtel!.i!Ullle w,~,ves~ ]',Niltli!e,r dl~l!l adljacefTtt wa:ves- Po:!.' £!x:arubIPJe;~ tble length, or 'W';o,V\e :} ,jlil :n, I~,ve W.::r:I."II,e seqaesee woo](iJ, be: in n u-e,JLi: ed, lYy ~h.e ],t';I~:guh U([ W'i!lWt:i 1 s fl.ulle'T uhwil by the I,'tl~glh of '\V,:lI.ve 2_

12} RbonaQd '~_atU;a.~~"S, IiIsu~lb ~hQw lUll} as, imoo~ru levels 0:[ SlllP[)(JJit, or resiSiUilUiDe' even if they are 8uib-seii;)!l!Iefli~[Y p:nen,~ted.

,[.3) A.n iDlpO~J]~ rudjlUl,{[ ro [he EUion W{ijV~ P,nfllC:up1J,~ is it~ ffioogrn:ul:uoo. !II ;;II[ rthL)',I~.,.~, ,~,J1Ji:~;Qi5 .OJiCC thc .Ftrir~\J1li,): d",,~:~.el u)'li.1 Lill:i!L yf ~~ll;- ~,U~~IJi: ,of f'1 ~,;:,c movements in dll~ 'm:!!li-J:GGt_ EiHuu':~, 'W,ave pffjndple pj'r.)i"'i~s Itlfte f~, and the :urarrne·w{I(ri:. '~",ihil\g '~ihe FiOOluwd ['ados, l~rovi~e; the ~OQ!] fo'J' '~n~8slldng the ,po.t,e,nl~i1, COl' :afl,Y price l1tto-vemeru~~" inth,!!ding the probable time '~ilit.dO'"~s 'forteIDi!lr!;ar~ons, Qf~jhese mO'lle:Efi€fLtS. TM:s is fiJ very

p!J\'''enu:~ {;.uFliliiruation. -

Part I1I1 Dev-alio'ln,g

Deviadens from, the [J]omf'l seem i:o be. 'itt€. rule rather than ~he exception in wa'Vle amJIys~!5, D~(ffu~~y 'in di~S aspect :!ldse!S, :f[om t.~ OOl!lroes~

1) ~1"1i:!ilk~1iI :If~)m I1lii:= :tu~d:I,,~atic~~, :r;rd;,ot1i '(l(W parts "f th.::; ,~,t~,!. :~,. atnples, ;l)f 'l1hii!S, type wij] be S~ en pag>l;!'~ urn- ~ 1 ,:;tad, 1[[ • 2.

,1) Sillbstitilition of tJI~ s.implfl: type oW eorseetion pane1'itl~ 'ltJy o.n~ or:~ of'the complex ~y.p~.,

A;j, the ma,d(u 'ITiH sec from the prccccding C}i;~mFk:s~ t:ho;:: d!-c.gfC{: ,or di:ffieu1ty btl, ~oreC:Pls!:in.@ t!li.e" tof'!i'!m;n~ttj.o:i!'!I .of a C'orrei'~i!oo p~t~:em i'it!'Cl',ePl~es :[UroportiO:I'I!il1Ji:,!i~y as '~hg number of 'lbfl~C ~I,tems. jo.hl '~ogdhe:F., To maike mat~:ers even more difULt:lIIU, 3n:y OJije of 'm€. basic LLCiiltiBclu'I;'e;" ~t~:ems. C8f1rl 'in(:o~oml:e '~h,e fonn olmore oomple'A, :~ig.[urffieS. suC:h ~S' 'dri,e jrr-eguJa1', mal OM '~r.lJimg:Le!ln lrtS(i,\wjJ eorreenve WIlI,Ye. -~l~e :~OIli()W]lilg,ex~[),~es wm ]~.IIl!!:5,trnl'e ItLi:s, po iru';

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A 'Sp€Cil'jll;y,~ C -* J."IwnM'1 ~YF

Part I'V

Guide,lilnles ,8lnldl Dither oibse,rvatiion,s

'If"Il-,,,, basie rules """.,',,.,,,,.,\,,, ' .. 1.,"'........ ,- - - - - - ---'1- - - - - ,1._ L, - ._,- 'I!.,

in"" o:!Il:i' ~ ',Yo "'''' .... 1, w ... '" ~: W~~,}' ,DIe :!llmp .c; e-nollti~:.~ W;Jut :m:itt:J~ ~R~

a:~~ !cati(;i!il ofthese rules dtt1ui!1~~[ig ~o t'he regulm.-er is the adderll camp'~exH~{ O:[''i/,atnO'us g~id.e;liule.N 'nil,at ~ fJl.!lppose,d'~ '00 thereto mske Irnfe easier for tile vral,l',e ill"!aJys~ in the- :[ir,~t place,

Ff.lJ :WlbtIDll!!lru1~ P.s '~!"e h.a,VG aUG:IDptIG(lj 't,o,cmIG~Q.n1!e ~Wide~~:Fie~ anti ij}.'!b5.{Clf'if,iil:t;.OI~S 'iU~.de..F several heooi~,gs. S!l).nl.e !l)f d:L¢-~ Qb~ 'I',!;1li"'~Jlg~, WeI',", tak-e.n fro:m, !H!li.utf!'o \:vi!'i~ing~, ib11![ m_c(ijgt o.fthem ,!3~ r-rodli;l!c~s >0:[ the a~!'ho1"',~ oWn exteriences whh wave analvsis.

lit :riIJI!JS~ be remembered th"aD; rn~y of '[00 'rulatbJfii5..hi.ps between waves" ,e.s:peci::aHy those reil1ectin;g the :!iB~t of FfboIIJ8(id ratios, are :mere H~IL\I~nd'e8 - not permanent :rehnilJn~!h:ips cast W 00llcre~. A '~ndency' mar be ~IQte 'ptQmiflefl~ ~an ,[::jfiQn.hQt d:i;lri;ng: t:hc ,NJuthar "a mar~tcxJ"i-C'.F,icncc, 'but tlhe-r:e us IlQ ]l:'!iW ii:1lill~' Sii!Jys thesereletionships Ciit!l]fiIot ehaage _ WhiU 1~ 0ommiMl! ~l[YW' iLUa~1' become ]"atE w:~eDl the market 'I!Inliei.E'goos & :rnLfiljor cy-cltcal c:hi:lnge,.

~ best w:ay '00 oorn.Gflt H'.o[Dl, tlme_te, gruldeHlle~ ;imd, 'varlgUl~ !libservanons irs to at1lQP~ ~. cnttcai.e atfl~u-de, 1I nm 'tlle evideace ~,S ln, a tendency ,s'hou'id bl;:! ll'I;:!!1~~ ~"!i ~'I;J!t!iL Ui!_~l •. :!i!- 1~!)I,_!l~{I]I;,;:y.

.~rrne of the rnoS;'~: cnmmOflI '~~nd~lide~ :2IM [Jl11Yvl{iflilliiil ~~lbselI]iIJe!L1rt 'lJa,:!!1es. The 8lL1bjG-citS are ,da~~tfi£d. knl~ seveF,a.!l ca~~gxmi~s~ rome o:fth~iuw a'ffie :p1'OvMlgcl, !!mdtu more than .orne headi.[lJ_g to. gi\'€: an eas;re:F' 'O]'o8~·re:fere:nce~

T'" 1IIIIme

ill) There ,ilIJR: [1,0 1:l1[L'e: oo.mu]rnll1It£ en ml:ui:.e[ r~m~, W:u,ve;s, oolo:ng;u(ij~ t,o 't't:J¢ $.i.1Lo"r~ cl¢,~j:'t;~ m~y 5(JR:M ~ d~~N1P(1i"'..-ji(}tb~ I.¢.mgth of ~~c t~~~g {'i~II' to· 1l1e Iff (,OT'iiip'i~ti\Q~" with t,(l:i'rui dllsregaro for ~lite ~~righJ look" or

~~r]ght i5tz::e'~" ~

2) In. terms of '~ume spent ~[)j ,co:m'pl~tin:g a pangr.m~ co-~~ive; waves airr>Ja; more .c,~O'.S.GI.y :mu~nB(l! toO 'eacn, Q'~ tnsn ~!.il [file irnpl1HS-e wa,\'es,

3'1 T1U'm_jn.g POil!:lIfj)s, :ilL1i tl1l~ fQ..£eiX m~-J§e.ts ~ e~'~e:r to i!:'oeco~nise as '~iey occur, '~f pmje(fI:~a'l1S: of' t.'iifillle and price :mO""'Br:lile[1~: 'fFiJl iififkio '[he' S:RI~' ,Ra, and ru:e gli.lj1JPOO1\8~, by d~B c:omp!j,e;tio:n of art ,a~c~ta'_b!Je W,afv£: :pou.em.

4) However, fjoo~aoc] time TIi!JJUllJlles aee ]n:m:~tlci,e[lJtly :rel:U:iiD.le [m'1!Ise ilI.1 :['Q[Oi&:s.bli!:,!; ~~ p:;u:S if!I.Ild! trou,g'hi5 of'certain niLOYCnlKi'.i.]t!'!" Tum:~ng pelats dPB OOCI:.!J,' !l';.:~er. enough ta;t. Fi!bo.!'.I~d, !:ime trui:le'ts !\o be b~!VDf.ld coincidence, But ifl i:s-cl!Ie:-: -:a.ls-o oceur :SiuH~cie!ithl' 'e!'l{illllg'l!I SQ ~ 1:0 cl:[m~ni5h th.e value of Flbcnaecl ,rolan'ed time targets,

5) ln aliiy fuV(~ wave st!l;jfilmtCe, I(}jlii:~y ,]in to 15 % of Ute time is spent 011J im.pl!I]rre waves, The rest of !he '~ji:m.e is .s-peni[\ on. eorreeuoas, '

iF .• " rst '1,"':!a'",'ii1!.6 I~ ~I_ ',,",,'," ~"",",T~,_

t

'I) Wfl 00 mr ,m:;;: the :mg'pec~' of momenmm ~iI;lirn'lhi'IIH;,' ,Of "~~I~,yllig [K1\j'i'f!:r>~ itS; {~!til1lcemed,. ] st waves have :n(l<tlnjm~~~ to Frove" '[t is o.:rlly ,3,00, ~rJ 5,'[11 W~,'!,I\itS Ihat have m.oone:nt1!!m .s118fi1d!;ll{lts: toO meet. "['.tiIe_~f\CIre, too most df~ti""e wa,~ to, use r-a:lle--of;'chtu"D.ge ind:ica))C([5 wlth W~'lJIe: ,!llltd.ysilS. is to dow[!I,grdde m(}rnefi!turI]J re~ings llI11I1~i] a, ,SlUlspe!Cl:ed, "'31l'd. of a Ji[!j" P:liLatt{;lmcu.lftllJll j(\i seen, 'U~ t'h¢ indl~;!d:oi:'3 de it'!l!, cOfllfill-:tll d'bc WH,ve WililJy.sis by the'.n~ look for ot!;.ei!:' 1~e-]:y' p~~m~"

H,OI!,¥et'lfe.r· if W,ai!i.fG: 1 :kieks-<O:ff: to the ~cQrnpaFJ[ment of a, pr'l1mm£l]~: di:V'etge.oc.e, 'be:~w~ yrrl;1r irui[catm and prlce ,actuvhy. U1e trend na..1 pI{1!oo'b[y changed; YO-ill' w~e mttu:ysis is alkn.ost .cettallin[y correct,

:I.) The ,ernciHliIg 'point of i"f~; 3:RI w::ruve' is Ithe mnst diffoclil'lit 'ro forecast ;:mlolJ,g tlle tb..ree ~~tlf?!!!lse ·'Ml\''eS. g.i.oo~ t'Ii[tl: 3m 'wave Cal] be shorter maIl the J st wave, but uueJy Sfjo~ p:ue~:ichng: its mm.tii~mJS is ifV>(lir.ltB'b,fe IMa@ '~)i) Ilhe '~ilWary ,8.fi!aly~t" [f'it [8 ]lQ( sllJorrer '~h:m, \V.a,ve 1.; \Va,\;IG; 3" :11f1:li.o/OO ~qlU:!I!J eo, or J ,,(ii] 8. 'Dimes l~e ie:11g'd:!i ;(If' \V:i(,'l,IIe .~. In idle case ,o(f extenslous 'W,!;t''I'£. :) can £.'I'£~:~ :00 2.618 or ,4L l6@, 'Ihoc length 'oif 'W'~YC I,

2~, nne of 'litJe :I!no.:;;~: dfectir'lJe wa .... 5, tX:lo :fOCo~nus£ ,S! 3rd1 WB,'!;I\e in :8, :fl,ve wav seqaenee is by its slope, ]1 js a]~l ;aJ)W!lYs stEa~rpm' tfuJ~ the.~, :iii!: e:x~r,i!3:m:e ShfliWS thai; :ul is often represented by ,am almo5tt '!fe[[ltlc~d 'line., !IE!l'v ~ts lI.lJatuoo II, 3:rd w;8,v't is t]lle: ,l1Ll0S.: de~tfiWCt_i'ife~ ot ~u W1PIlJ~5e waves ,yan,d, SliUJl!I!ldl [lot ibrlJl,g' a trroodHlile drawn between Itht: or.iJ,g:ilu 'ur 'W;;:!,\le :[ and t1l_c 'C,OO, of 'W'nll((:: 2.

j

3) ~ '~_:rIiII~t of ];rcl, 'W,!lv.e~, ,C;9!,!, 'ht} 90~' llOwerftlll tlllilMt t'h~:y' :~ifi:'! ifl/ft,['~n 'mistaken fur ,5th, w,iive ~~b]Oi'lV-o!frl!J," Of "sell-cffs''. CdmpQilJ"U]rliing: ,.he siltjjJ~,ui'Cin :us: the fact tlila!~ 51,1:1 waIV,e "'~l(!iw-W'fsin or '~se:~~ ·1ilHs. .. • _ no'~ ~[ th~,~ rare l!!m 'tliite iore:x marit.ens., 1'100; only possible lmtdic~t.nlr 'bi oC;a.n ma.ik'.e ltLe {lfi$t!nCti,ulli is 'yo.murnQ;. ]:f'~lhf'; tllru..st OOC'Ur8, m. record or Mavy voiumll;;:~, ilL h ]~].Y ~~ ~ ~.3'.ifd, 'Wii:t\l''';::, ~o~iSiib:~y ,g)ltt:i](kdi. If ~w '!f~.Ii!ih.!al iMQY.e;, is iiKcomp~nicd, by :;;Ii, :Il\cl:;ll~"'''~]Y 'Iesre£ vO:I~:ttre {es:pedilJ~y if I(Inmp~rodi hJ '~hi?i :provimMi'l im[k't!ll~ 'IlnCl'i,i',e). 'fJ{hen :iifJ' ~~~ 1 iik'P..'Iy' .:0 be H 5.h w,ave ~~Mollp'l;"·o:fr; or ",se.:IiI.~!!Jff~.

4} The genera] :public, which, :no:m:l!~U~t" msis~s ~he idea of a 1:reOO, :reve.rr5m~~, ulS!Ul~lil'ly chali!ge5, ns rnii.m,d, d~dilllg tne )'['d Wa,'lfB. In lills. p:hase, w!:u","es~m,:s ,1111101 ~.~'tw reasons W w.y :~1iI t1x~ case if}f ~I!I]I m!:li_d~e'fis, or selll 1m t.M e~~nt 6'£ dce:~~~, Since 'b~l then toe, ecenemle b~~groii;Jm,d, begins to :ML]"1fOl!,ie or oote:rim,ate. aJS lllle: case may be, fJ;!liIcllamenli:al reasons v]le :!!!pOn t~'IiI[!ji¢~] co.l1Isirl~i':fu:IOntS to .mElke ;!l,N 'W!lva as pOiWerfllll H$ '~tey ~, Thb, rna;k,~5, 'It im:peraJt~,ve for 8fl1 oa]yS'1 to i'£cogni:se t]l'it onset of 3,m, wa~, r(oofnff: '(he fa.-ct} as, t]jley o:tlier immenLSely :p:rontaiDIG ma{Ung oppmlmilieSi"

5) Thi.1-d W~~e'.s ,!3~ not :!!![W;1:y~ lw!:;;@:!"'fuan ]g!. wsves . [..[o'W!f'ver.. the:~ aJ~ .l!Ilhnfll~~ a'llwa:ys,:mOF>B pow:erfuil technit:allly' €:i.e., h~gher. volume aOO 5i1]'O~1" :R:'LOIDefltlJ.lrn).

6~ The rng~t ''lfoJ.;ll!me. \V,in ~lm@Jny oeeur :Hn .he "3J1d, wave of a ,1M wave".

'7) o.nce':!Ii jr,d W~!iJle exceeds 'the leiiilg~h o:fW~'!fe l , pmJed ii':% lenJ,g[h as :~ .61 S t~itleS, tke leli!g~ft!J of \V,~ve I. ]ff Waw 3 e..x~ds", 'fu@ nex~, ,otnjeDt~,v'~, are 2.6J8 m' even ,4f,,6lS, '~es the le:rr.Sd:lJ 'CI,f 'W,llve ~, (3.61,8 is :not a. F]OOJJ:a.od ~.ujol

1)- 'T:ct:m.in,:d iP!Jiii:ii~ fer tl~c 4th !.lind 5th 'i"",!,:l;'ir-cB arc ~s;C]" to '~~@ict, or 'ro 1'f.!OOSIli i~!J' :iI~ tli1~y iI'IoL!C'l.1lf_ The e~~el't ,OilT '~i}l<e ,4th wsve rr.l~~ 'be derived as a, F:uoonacci, ratio ro the e::xlenJi: ,of\Vave 3. T.he length O[ the .5th ''''v,~ve may ~ike'iNise be !lib~ine.d as a, ~JbQ[J)aoci ratio ofthe price u~v,e] fIOOl the'origirm oft'he 1 $~ wave through to the tttdJ of~be: 3m waiVe, 'The: typiCfliJ] fe~ab\(l!n'S1l:lilp m a.:hw wa,!I,!Ie reqiueJ.tc~ ts toU;;' W:a¥{1: j is O.3,:U. 'Of O~6l8, times ,fi.\5 IO.iJl,g as '~h'c price-travel DOlin W~ 1 'throi;l~~l to' ~ !.Gttmli'tl!l~ olf \Vave 3. Very o:fi",e n l' Wave :5 is &;00 1.61 9 '!t~!1:1es, as long as W:8ive l. T.hese :re~3t~oril!dn:u,PG ,assume It'hil~ W,arvts l and 3, are oott 'e,xi:eJ1dlecl.;,

2} Du,1'irllg 5th waves" a, d\eterioratioo] of'tJ..e 'Jf!1Q!1itentl!lltl 'puctlllre ~~mes ~;\'ialZFi[', M,os[ dlvrugences beuwee.n [lile diJ'ecl"~on of rnoll:u;:nl"U!m :~Iid!~cat0ts ;alfl~. '~1he. price ,ac~iyit:y arc soc:J] du;dng 5fh WfiCS"

3} As e~.plahle~ ~:Iil 'Tihmrd 'W,3,ves" sectien '[. :5t]m, Wavtis are 1LlIS'l1Itdly ]'e]med by a, Hoowwci mtio to t:he 'pr.tce travelled from the m~;gili. of 'W,'ilJY'It, ] ihrou\gh to l1l\e end -om: WWrI'e J. Whoo the 5~ w.ave develop'Ii:lenJt stops short Qf the flJbOll:i:lod re~!ate~ 'ttarget&!, ,Oneill"! nmes '~ :B Wave (of.i:UiI, :ulT."e_guliiliI [p,H1iLe:rm) Of£" k ,eu:mi~l,g' 4~h. Wil'V'e '(I,] ~ hi~!t:;I

'~~';''''"''''G '·w:~ll !i<C""~c :new ~'b:'+'~," .at ~""]1i1v.'t;."". :US-I,.~:il~", •• ,.~"'"""'" ' ..... , .... "'·t- ,Ji..., .. ,..,,-,_' .... ' ~,i3~~- " !!!l .... '1:!"_~ _ !!_~_ '.~~"a:.r" _' . " .. _ , [_u~~i1Jj~'rJ· T'!',il~.'i." IIt'Ir.w:-~ -I:~ TI'!i:..·I""~

ShOllild1 ,ht:Ive i(jlel.~:t, ~~I'O:Pf"6c1" er ~~lbo~~,,!l)niIeti" ont.

4\) FKfih W;1lv,es reflect the element of bullishness or ~ari_shnes;s wMch has OO~ 'bu;IWing 'up ,cOOlK~nlUmlsly ,OW! tke preceeding fo:UiE w~.vesTMs .arwareiiJess s"n(ij'wB~u:P' :fh.s.l Hm.t:'irilg: th£ :~!r.I;~ke;t profesgioftlals, w[w ,a[l~, dl)tie~y '~.~"''l":!1 \'~ wdli ~h~ .1I~~aJ~J;:,0t, 10.1[. ,81 dan)' basis, no gOi1lc.~a1I :p~i'",;a,teo InVestM, as 'U!r.-U!~I, C©i]l~' Iast,

~. J _.'

f Ine WBveAlfh~.ryst

])- lp. af!ji F'hl"e W~f!: seq,!l.!I!f'Il.re, ~.x_pe<'~: o!!l~y ,one of the, lmn:lf!!TIlS€' W":',:i!W' ",~~D!her me; :1 st, 2nd or '~e 5th) 'D:o 'be ,exteE"aded,

'2:) U (he .:)]id wave 'is ,e.xteultd.ed-; W'a,\'e 1 W1d,'W'3,~,5 wm ~ood, w 00 €qUla~ ~lt~ temli& of ~ea1Jgf1 Off pnee tli'ave], ~r .eq,ua.1 n;, ~e JetlJg~h ,af '~i'ffiJi£ '~~, by' ~he ~:IU.Jvea:n!;:n~ .f:F{m~ ,'h~ ,ptl',u~mll off m5:gi.~:u lu I!.h~ le.IfI~:~~Hil~"

3) ]'Ii 'tj~' ~w.lilr. of:9iil ~l(rftt1i.dn:fll, l!h:~ 'micl~i'I!e .clilT ['he "~,t',d, wave O'f I!he ~"d wa,ve'~ llSillL8ll:ly marD, the oon,too oJ the £TiItiru 3irl wave mO'Wlt'iM'b

4')1 Awe~Lo:tne, as eX~iiQJlLS, (Maybe, ~t ~s Q:fleA of '~he leas!t 'Ilmdterntood. phenomena Ilnde·r the Wa'v,e Pl'llitc:uple; A saeceeslon o:f nut. ~ ~s.i::COil.dl W,ilvCS 0'1. ~.QsS'C~ and, ~CS3C.~ degree ~ne.lfaJl]y liIlm..k· I~.rn.lhruill :p~tI()GmF:i, stl, tru:: CriI!i:Ulii:'!ll:! re8u'mpm:k~i'iI of itlrne: l:tettfl usn ru.ly ~:Mc1l;es, the 'iJmwwry aJil.lJjlys~ ID(Y' surprise,

R.N" E.l1iot d~d. net ~'do!!N]l any method '~'~I] in advance whetfuer ,11 wave :h~ e~tertdoo O~' not, B:yt based 011 'ftI'ba5.ket esperlence, ;1l, series (If ~,I:a]),P:HIiI.~l wa,'i,.i~N.:a~:a po.~flJI tiiI uhe; w~ve ~n'1l.lc~urre wne:re ho.rizol!l~a'i b~41)~'k:ti ~IJ d1a.g,Ij},~la'l 'mliial~g.~e,.s; are ~.'L;)~: e.;.,.,poc~:ed.~ Ui~u.aHy '~II.UTI 01Ji~ ito 00 ~n e~t-e'n~!~J:l-

,5) In the lorex Il]~,. a.~~ ,60'% of exJte:nsio.:ns oceur ~, jrcl Wa,Vetl., Ex~.@rndl.edl, 5m wa¥e8 ba.ppe~11J 'ifoI' 3$'% of Ilhe instances and ihe :retnainm:g 5% ili1 ,exD:emlell J:5.t w~,ves ..

6} 'Wn.cm tbc'CX'~rilrJ.erJ, WlLwe ill! !i.l,:se~-n.'oc Q'f·n",;;:: Wil!i'';,'\C;S is ~·h¢ 'L~~ .. c~~t.~t 1Jh,e, s!u'lbse<lt!)(!Ii1[ OO~~'iftiil m liflf'8,"en tbe !Mea of the 2nd1 'W:MJe. :UDS~'eOO '()IF lbe li!S1;l!al4tn Way£<" This is. e5iPeciaUy tEliJe iff the 5tlt Wave in ~e· sequence :IS smailer by fat' oDmpa_redJ 'tto '~: 3]'d, wave.

7) Oj~C'!i.f.iin~ tf'i'ld to M m.i!I.~,{!!i' wi.thim extensloas. Th'E! iI_:!I~U~;~ w.trnc~~ ment ~!FCenl:ag:e o:f the preceed:imlg: w.~v:e is 2:L6%.: cooectiiOtl8, :nIJrrieJy £1QeedJ 3~L2.%.,

8) Hxpeot a"Iil:u,gh, ]liroD:lIJD~Jil.y aIT.il :fro. W,:illve be:iIllg ~J:erndLedL when llllG 2nd 'I,~V'e ,I'~~l ilI!.~~ l~.;;, 1ll~ii!il50% of dli:: 1 :sL, W,~Y!l:,. 'll!I~l':i Leuill!;U~~)' increases if (h,c 'litO, W;;lV'~ iraQ~' jl ~'fL:];tFl m Mirre,g~]ilIl'jp POftte'.rll.

9) If'~ 5!tn w~y.e exme:.nds in ~!"i!Y Five Wai'l,lle seqi[J.enoe~ :HIii ,aboo~ 80% ,of· 'CiIJ~~, this 'five; wave ,:sequ'dlCe is, W:!lve, 3 'in ,:lIJ :narF,~6]" fonThadoo_

10) 'W,IiteJrn 'W;!lY~' :5 is ~)(IL\Gntled, lrs ~e:fD,gm 1$ venr oftelii ]",01 S times rhe 'Cilnifc price '!;r~,¥eUed ,from oi'i,gin of WaY", ] tcHhc peak wWa,',i!i:: 3, ~ d!i~ram belQ'w~

,I; -rT

y ~ 1.618.X

y I ~

'=r='~~'~-'-'=~

I l'

I ]} Wallfes, wHl1jl1 a:~"e;,;;le[[8~O~ ma:y iN big:8'~m s.ea:k'thmrDhe p~:Iin;g wa,,!{'CiiI; 'of Iill,gc:~ d:::-;gJ1eC;,

J

IPriin,ciiple of Alter'na,tio'l'iI:

1) The :PrinC,1:pJ]e of AU:e:matuOl:lJ, dle.s(lJite '~h.e :appeiM:;U~OO,]8 .1U$'t, thal. a valiJJI:able gtllirl\e1line, '[JUl :fbO'~ ;l!iIii iUl!JibI'eak*~B.; rule [under rue \Va,ve P,trmcillde:. M~e~ ~(.'{pill'ie:~re shews dllai t~~ principle hcdrn.s true ffm' 90% m 'f1}e tiTHe hetwOOill W~;; 2. and. 4 in a Hve w,av~' :s~q,n.;u:mre.

2) 'TI1G 'p • .wc~plc ~ C::-'~l;Cn~d! by R N. e.!io~-t. 'j'e.q~i~~ :a['lter:fu:U;lna;:

OC;C!ltmli,r:e of ~~miPle and complex Cil..l'l"Fec[uv,e; pat~ef.til!i, 'm W~¥e 2; and Wave 4., A shn~lf\ ,deep, correction (tJigzags! dqu.lble li:g~,gS) ~] W,ave 2 !dIiOtlllcl. give: rise 1:0 a comp~eA, 3lid.e.wa,ys, C~dM (f1ats~ iJlie.glll~:aT$; triangles; d01Jilii;le;.of ui~le rluees} Lil \"la,ve ,4.

3) h1J ,lliiJY experiencein dl_Q f~ :niiilli:'ket however, '~'t~c Prlliid,plc g.f AJ~,T.ii:'i!:!1.ti:iJlfI [h;oidls tme:: :mtQfoe on the ,~;~,!1.1~t :t~'thgii:' 'ilh~llh.e p.c14M~·J1 of eonec'~i;Ciml8. For lfig~Hnce. if'W,~.ve 2. 'has retraced 61.8 jleITle,nl: or 'I1I1-Ofe of W:t:!ive, 1., then W~v~ 4- would very :likd1" retraee 38:1, pgr.oe:nl, QU' less ofW,a:ve, J,. IfW,iave, 2 has retraced 38.,2 ~1fl 0'1 W'iJJve I, wen 'W:av~ 4 w:hou ld CLJJ.'JIeCl 2;3.6 QJ' .50 ,eliCeH1t (if \Vav,e3. ··[he aJternatlon ,of p,::u:~ms ma~ i[:M!:e place, il)ut sign:Ml,cam: exceptlens :n:Lttty be ub-~~ v~liI. :rrt!~n tlme '~)Q time. ne fl:limC oomi'5:te:If~~ ~'t~<lti,ilili1l, pJ:'O(;~::1; 'O(;;;::UIrS in th,e e~~~ttent (It' d~pth of eorreetlens rather than lin its p~j'I~ii'ii1!i: 0'11' forms.

4) This. prlnelple a]:so Fequill~ us' ED Imik for differenr ffOrn1:atio:rns ]n ,(J,;},Mble OJ lrlp.le-til!'(H!$" In a dJoubleBlhm£~, 100 most CO:mfilo:n :~I3!U:erti :~s a fiat ,and @JZj'g2ag. ]l:":a r~iil7J!8JC' QIX~I'S; it ~s 8Jlmoot ,al~ys tne ~a8~ ,~ii!.'~re~,~.u ~u ~~l,[: VUI,[I;;;I;;.'L~\}J~ V]!!;:!,\;"il;;. 'l"'i'!i'V ~i,1I.i.\,JI;ii{ic~""'1;' n.:iJ~'" ~li~\J:!.':~k.::; ~. thi~,JI, F;;!.twm. 'U5U3J]]y ~ tria11@;Je. A 'll'i(p]e·'~_1te~ ,may be, Qom~~~, of 't~'t!ree tfUiJts: or il're,gJlibrrr patj.erlil!l;.

5)

]'[Ij a, '~i.I.·~~gle:. the pr.irbcip]e enltruMs us t10 look: for d,ifie;ge.nJt patterns, itMMw-eru .~~. ,adJatenru, and i[llne,g]',ai1 'Ie,gs. L.e,g A, will :nO't be me same 8..;;, leo: H,; B w~ll :nO¢' '1tH3: [he s~ as C~ etc,

~,~ .

O'Oiflfec,ti v'e waves andl ret:race menta

1" MeC'h 'jh~, used tflrrerfid ,;1lIe. ex I'enil: of corrective wa.ves ui!Jde.!J' itmte E]itdt W'a.lIe Pri]lcip~.e em \I~ j bl.]r. dw Ul1dedJ'ing approa.c~ rnvQ]v.es. 'mhe ~Hc:.:rtlo:n .of '~he .l?ibcma.c·lC~. 'fatuas (l,t36 , O.3·82~, 0.,$ and (I,nUt to the lle'llgth of M:t~ preceeding ·iIlil..p:uJ;~ W!8.""e.

:2.) There ru'~ L W-~J' w~.y:-. l'L'i deal ,",,'hll iD rn!l:]".kd. ,;;.o:lisoUd~· t:oo Qf 3 :~ur.~e'l' d~.gr0G;. o.rttl:: is: l'O w.atch e!Vlil'ry price "tick", ·~T'y~n\B. to. read. ~il:l! lr all.Y gllimmer of ,oonn.ffn~tio]l ~. to Ule. eeurse of the 1.fn3fOO:er.. The other is to, tep b~; deC'id~ (ill a, strategy, and Ul00 J.el ~Le m:u:lret cOl1isoHdflte fur as loog as it tak,es. PO! MtdY.S.t:il.; tllie fi:rst appr·o4dlli :us ·!!mavo.i.dla.b]e. Butt for the imvesw'!" tIloe se,ccmd ,"fould [be more .mJlrrO'pIiai~e. f'olWw IDbe ma~;jm -Ii , dcnJittu:; SEaY OUl~.

3) Co:ffeCtiQ.ll5: t.g·nd to b .iIng priees b~c'll: m.n the area. of too pr>e:'v]O'(J!!'I 4th 'W,i11;lf: ·nfmle lesser de~e, Wl.cl. l1I;s;uaUy to lUJiJt fuey·ond! tllle e.xtr:e.mity. {if th8~ 4th wave,

4} ~~liot enumerated ei!8h~. ~yp~s of ecrrecnve panerns, and [hen. observed that fhcy l:FIiiliy tlouibJr.:: Ul' ll.iple 1n c;rl;ll«ld\ed ;:dd.~w8yS eonsolid.ati0]Jj5.

3) Tile. d(},rmle·-l~re.e ·Pti!t,e,m. 'is tile mcki~s~ C:Qni8ct~.ve 'pattern whb~n tile: \V'a.'I,re Principle, [t ]S tffil.e 's'untCe most common cause of ~ 1i1aww forecag~ and :illdmed expecruhoti.cfi.. Dal!lble .. ,threes are ~J['IJfreqiUeftJt oocurenres:i!1il 'I1iIs larger aegree, bll!l ali!,'!: ql.!l]U,!;:: '!;':·OIl!; ... Il.IlI.m ~.!I.1 L.i.u; hU~I].)' wi'll ] (J=! ~ ilui i,JJ D.e Il,; harts,

6), If t'lTi~ corre~ltmml! starts wiftil. a complex, S!i:deWflIYS pat~m. (,a Uat; irre~1Ji!M'·.().r.:1lJ triangle), the d~.una:ge 101'fue pre.vail:in,g impl!l~8.]Ve trentd ~sl!lsuaHly hmited~o3$.'2% relf&?e::IDernt,orex'c.e:p,tiQJ]i!Il]lyro 50%. This is g.eDBraHy. U\JJe'~ even if the eorrectica ]s a 2nd W:!IJve;.

I _/

j

1) A. retlfa.'Ce:ment tlt8t :fliill s to ~Q biryood 38,,2% off itlli(ll jJreceedin,g movemeet ·indi.cat,t_'J. a pent-up, undelF.ly:llli'ig: sm.ngiJJ ... S'imi~ru'ly, a. Clolil~oJidatJ(ffi th_iU takes :srune ·time· to f:hll:isJ, :15 a prelude t~ explosive aotj,olil O:DIIC~ tIile co-.necfl\'e pauem t«JnIH~S.

8.) .rift)' pc;r,cc:r.t tctltooc'ncn~l>: ~ cOmMOn in fh v e \~?:;1i""e sequenees, but do illIOit occur as f1i'·~li.mliU.'Ily as 61.8% ecerections. HQ'!.!.!'e'ifel'. 50.% re-

I ,.

traeements fi!moe "",'elY cMlm.oo. in the llDit~e:rn.:al waves of bear ma:rte~ rallies, i.e, w ]~l1ir...n a IB W':I:Ive; of aJ I i'zigza:g". ,coE"reOtio:n.

'9) The femiLinatno:n of a zn;gzag :P.m~m does not :glll.mowtee Il'hul Lb.:: cerrectlon Jlli uvef s.~f[JC(;' the rdli ,¢'~tI!t forms csn t:l.1l;;·c II!I~ ~p~eK. pl.'!lU'~ms. S:'ril], t:li1~ ~1iII8J]I'BJt !lho-~[.d :st'k:k ''''IJii'1Ti the simples.' c..o'I'iI"Lp~~bl!d p;'l1tem i'iII ac:.e.·r.nrlomoo wm~h the' Pdndple of hltsimony Oc:ca:m'·s Raz:Q._ t R.N" BmO'~ also st~d. tOOE. the sW1~]e.'s.·~ patlem is, lilk:e[y to. be .he eoneet exp:~@lnation 1l1iO~~ of ~he time, E]~]ot was :oo:ver able to define 'precise :ruJ.eS for ~rtildl'atin.g the more tirne-COllsmnhng COH'et.[ive ·pattem~.

10) In d.C!u'D,],e ~i.g~sg±~g; :p~t!:(!ms ~'h\e. second z:]gz~g "i1h;('lj~flld t.elfInilmlfie.: ~.nh~~l'IiI~i:iiUy h=:1{~w the bettem ,anhe first ~in il 'bull n!L3"rkel). COllver .. sly". the &e~!ruj .ngzag stt-Olllld 'end weU ailiJove the peak of me first in a dtecl1lrirrng; mm'.~D:.

[ 1)1 At Ute 5n.Wi~, oj a illJJ1JJl~tu IU'ldIJIllI tam .. 1 a .I!I.I~jUl i;.I.otiLJiuG, .~ilJiu' u~ it!. 'U'5'Y~]~Y :~Wf.'(;. p.ro:n'{5!,i1!1i.oQed at 2nd W~ ootrom!'l, dum at the. amll,l:;:d ]owe t :p'Jl:li~m'U 'from wfitelii!)P.· th~ 'I ~~' wfilv.J!: fa,n!inJfltedi ... Tradees ge:nera.Jbr look aft th~·raru}'" (i.e .. , W·a.lI~ ] ,3s :li.I1{!1Mie.r oppo:umniJty to sell en, the converse is 'he at. ·tLe 'peak: ,of.a biJj~1 market. The i 1$1 wa"e ~U~o:ff 'is, often touted. as anotbe1r· opportunity ·t'O buy ,oh-e,i:fply 'me second waiVe

CO'l;lJDned'Elru:lJd ]',a.Hy is vlewsd as the be.8iliili:UIi1$ ·of anew 1iallly to new peaks., :FiJIllltii.une:nnall;;,,~ tlii.e i'rIl8!r~t apr~ear,Si bl~ake;st. ,at'h ib0.rutorn of 2nd wa"'·e~ ill 8 bun market, ",'1hile t~le ecooQ'mri'c smtl!l~tjorn .appears. [lie Ib:lii:ghtes~ a~ nJie 2nd wave. peak «]f a rm~jOli !ni;lJ!.~L decline,

J2} The: ,~rQ''i,·.e· Prb1dple does not pro' 1(1e 9 w~Y' ~'O fo..rer:a,;m where a.2nd! 'Wa.ve should end, h shoQJ~l.d ]lot 00 QV'e]'b' difEic~~t to reoogn:~se the tenrnrni.ils· ~s it is OCCliIfvlilg, .B~t even tile m:1I1:M.ly :reUabie Ffbol1ooci ratlos a1e o:f]lo hell} un predbcdn8 mht;:eJilding poi[)!t in advance. Ali. that ElJI'uor. e.!i'Illlof er ~s: :proj~t~oo olprQbable :itOppLng: PQims." That :i$ winy too trading 0:( 211l1;i waves sIlIJI!.dd L);;:: avoided,

] 3) It is: .rn!iOfE- Cmnm..o:n for :' lid! wa·ve.;;; to be '~'um~e (,a zig:rag or doublerigz~.g) and ,41ttr. wa.ves ~O' b,~ ,cmnplex (jl$~ :IJngtl]m'~ ·~.I3Illlg~e.'1i, doub1e-itnre~· Or triple-threes, e~.),

]4) Wa.'Voe; 2: n·on-naU),· retraces deeper than W,ive 4. WaV'e 2. iends l.u retrace (Ii~ .• 8;'ll '!:.'IT !I!lVJ'!;:' uir\V f~'I;l'O ]. P'11i11ng thilS ~ th~ ncxt m~t cg.tnffllOO fC'~~ c·cmcrit :is .50~ .. ,

.

I

I

l5·l Th.e lnost ~y~c:al rul'i:',ilCf'J.lle"Jlt fw War'illG 4 ls 33·.2% ,of the :~e:Elgth of 'Wave 3,

1,'[1,) ]f a,:5tll Wave 'faJi[ure occurs, 'woo,~nsurng relI'ac,e:m.Cnl·w:ii] Ul;"dy rL;tJJII.gel. !IJ[U;i .~JlAA UllllIjli pv~~ ~tj~; ~f ~hc ':'O!I:.I!«.;;.~i '';; iP.,aH~~.

1'7) ·Wloc .. tl aJ fm \,!\f?-wa. \FC sequence falls shart of a t id.e~] Hbonaoc] ob:i~c~ live, the ensuing correction wm u~~·iIJ;jJ]~.y exceed its tw-ge~ 'b,Y' an amount equal 1lO 'me defidBl1cy of the 5~b Wa~"

.( Clhalnne_ls and trendlillnes

1) An EIHot \VilJve trend chennel is ~allS!truC1:ed ~y. fiIS!t &f!JwillS a ~]ne cOJ:1imlect~ng the. ·teJmiliai. poinrs or w·aves ] and J, A p;;w.aUel trendliee is. then. dr·awn. fromr i!h~ r;nUi u( ~.. oi4ve "J'. ll~b, iJr ndJ inc, in ~QiijUiiC'Ki(1il with ~ :rcrt~n~nt ]j 00t1i~ c:t l'·:.'!Lt j.o~ ~hol:!W pi:' CFvid('j 'ifl9i,g ht~ as to ~he '['Iilli nr :F.!iI time wmdll)'W wl1!rrlii' me 4tlh 'warut:: C:Miie.d&on. :siliulU:ld end. Given ithe timiw'g: reference, uoo anaJ.yst should 00 able to. deduce w:~.a~ pattern i Hke]y'ro eccur in ilhe 4{th w-ave.

Iftlie 4tb w,aV.e ends aooNre Q "M~ow 'we tr~en.tlHl1e (.U~ in~ Ute ~a~ 9.5 percent uf ~.~ time), !;:!, Dew liin;;: is dt'liI,wn from the end of Wave 2

;;}u~'h the. t~m:liiinal poil: t of W~~r~ 4. A par::.dleJ De'lilrnl iii1~' ·i So then dr:llWIliI fr'l'lllt1l Wave J. The: speeifle PIl1TJ.Qae is riO determine Ihe:i!)robalb:~e ending po-if.lJt of 'Wave .5. M. 'before, using Abonac:d meri",ed. olDjecrives, the maJ.yst may ]li',oj'eC[ the time frame where the \lla.loIe .5 ~15 like1}" to peak_;. If'~ slope of t~te. 'proj~liOJ:] (Ile-E~.ve.c:d. ~y this Ijlil,e~]]od. has the saane,'cU.e.gJ'tee of S"mGpnes· aSi \Va\<lc j ~ IUitt:·.lJllh ... :F~iruua .cJ .,~ ~b5. ;;:oj!;:' !1]IT[vOOI, o~n~.mJ)' .00tJtect,

1} TIle l:ren{U:Uriles ariiedrawn bougJiiJ. 'flle <orthodox t,ennin.,al. poinlt.s" Itrnl~"" happen '~hat a portion oftthe price ~ti\'ity T]lay ['ie {ltrts~.de tbe channel dr·awil this way. es.pec·i~lly In \Vi:I!ve;s ] and 1. This is. of no conseqliJ~mce. ~li. t'~e ElIhot 'W,ave rclaJooeLli[)].g nmtliloo.

:3) OL.:iI,;~i)i",u any, tc:nnill,;:a[ points o·f <tlh. W~.vC3 "'I.~m 'bre~d:t'h ¢:retl.d!HIl~ pru:-illeo'] 1'00 'thr:> 1 inoF" .n}1i'~1DJJ.iIi] ('rom] WtlI·vi!" '1 ·n'hrli'.L"III~llw \V':t\ilP'; 1. [J 5i1!.!l.a1lv .. the .5Ml warv,e 'wiU oormmenoe '~mmooiatebr ,::d"tet. the br~aCh.,

4) mt is also generally true Un;:J!t. if a lTentilulll~ break occurs Ut the 4tH. w:Q,'!f,t (uS:I/I:ii!Uy as a reS"lJ[t of a niarng~e }.~ ijten tne efll811hllg :5~h. W~\je will ~~.5-'O '~re* the 'l!p'lA~·ul:C tJ.fCllld.]~ (II] th~ channel LIi! a L·~:hJtuw~v(: ". The scale of·Cih.e .... ~r.Il'w.-over'; is l.ener:;!Jly the same :;is: that. ·(]ihhe .~h war!j,l'~' [r..e, r dHIit! hrea:lt.

5~ A normal 5~h 'Wf,!V'(! ,;;;limddl he able to reitrC1n 1;he eharmel ![!objective', .. aib!lre to ana:in tlllmlS objective- is. a smgl~ific~ nt S'ig:n o,f lihe po.:entild $u:~n,glh of (he subsequeor re,ri3C-eme:m I:.

,6) K.N. b~hot once ('I Ds~['!ted. 'hIll a.11ilart.m: w:l:I!iC:1iJ hlllp ~bt iJ nll~~ U'!i:'mllin'C (luI(;' '~OWIi;::( 'lJ'ft,.:: ;'1 the case of b!J~ iJllilli-k;;;~£i. the. 1t.!pIP(::f line i=-rl be.a:r. m:'li M:'i:) nl~ke!!:l for a:r:l:!lm:'!I.ltiC' ·~"i.ij)!i!·E!'S once '!(h@ ~MI wave run:;: ~i'Ltr.~y 'Wmm 'flh:fU '1ljfendl irne and sku"ls head ~ng for the 'oPlPosh!2; dllIDJ1e'~ line.

1) A c'harnl1lel iffiat 'mapens in~o a "wedge" s'h,ape is ,il s.ign t'nal~ dJ.e· m!OVcme·.Dlt is ;a.~o1;llm. to el1ldi.

1). .AliefIilpt~ng Ito de~ermin.e 3. pn.c,~ o:bJeC'[lVe in ~r~m:_:t: is iLl~~\!i1 in

l:i""'t:-l~ii!!I way. If @ re~'j'e[~oiI!i 'OC;(;ILU" lU i:'hal level, ~lilt'd. dlC w.;i·'/{·I;i. i..!;; Co •• \i;ill.

d:i~!il I·he. ptCIjccti.on I:;; :rnooe: ]Jr"Qh::g:l;)~y correet.

1) o.Ae· sure, s.i.gn tb~t t'tilt~ ~flrl of a ma~or trend is approacllling •. i w.'ha~. I Ctll~tliie '~tnu.l'l'ip1ier effe.cr·. This '~5 lihe· :5!udd~l1I. t'.il;s·in,g - (in a bl!.!I.U market) O:I"~!))we '"n:g On a bearmar et) oHtle s-pOCiL:IJahve oltljechves or Ihe pru"'::I!ili!l]~ treJild, I)JSIlHl!Hy iOy ~yen!im dt:g!'t:~:s fD'l.JIl:U I.'h~ ~llJIlf~ftl. ,Lilrn'lX',. Th~ .pl.h!ll.<t1.ry '.' ;(:~o~n.l·of t'fn15. ,srlil"i§,(; :in. eon:fiCicnec; ,":;: vcr:r ofll~.Jl the ~rt.l~!1 r-:t'r v ·~:e !D.WfltO!"_ Th-e o:mjnMY ··nl;,l~~i"(rir i~ u~na~~~{ "s 1c:l.e£I iilil'" liiit:lJlf or ~I" 'I"he end. of .he maior If-end. Bv the ·~i]rl.e he :h; fiiw,are of tbe rn~'l['ik{!t move, ,aU Ole profes iUI1l3i~. 'lladelrS h~ve been and gone. This is o:fteDil I:oe cilim~l.yst for a rapid ~u.m~arro;l!md,

3) \\"he.n various md' pendesn m~LhlJds prOjCi;'!iIJ 5p~·tiC ~d mQ~r~' less identic;;!.J priee ureu, lite !l)bjecti:~ ia .... 'Gry' 'Uikdy ito. be, o'bf:amed_

11)r If "l'rIe: cerrective W8v·e be~ins wtmh a IDat, the wotM ~as~ ls ~ ,(j18 reg tracemem of .'he previous wave, '0\''£[1. if tIiie· corre·C'~i;on 'is 8J second W8V't.

2) In a. n!:lm oolil1:C~.i!!JU!, l ~~ eml 'Ij,.f W a '"'Ii: 'C \'!,' iII 'hi .. ud ro be hig·hc:nh.;ililil tnit: lc;rrn,inu::i of \'V',",vc \, A \V::Jl.ve C ~~. '.ililla!re'· i:s: ql!l!it.e- eommoa in fln~' coerecrlons 'nh3l 1!iI1!a!.y [h..e. found in fore . Ittark.et movements.

3) if Wave A in a. flat eorrectlon failed. io retrace 38.2 percent ,uff the ~:II:!jJ~e:rli: impulse wa.\!Ie, Wa,ve C [s Uk~e'~~ to be a ··r~it!.lJre.".,. GU'!,!l!.ID tlile aeove s[maliol1 .• I:fW,~\'e C bas renacee ii:Ii] least i3,,'6ptT(:~m 'l)rWL!L"'~ A ii1Iid Il~.llio alfc~_d'J wrn.-,dc;I:11:(]] a fl:V'c-w,av~. ~q'l,l:~nrt;ie~ it i~ ]i~ely th::Lt 'N,::r!.v,e. C ... vi]~. 'lDe s.li1olte':t' tI~. \.Vave A_

4~' If:!lJ plIotlltm sm4IJ1t$ W'F~iM a 3-wa.v.e s~r[j}ctu.Ii:-e, and. ·~~"'b:$eq.uen[ market ,ac~:bon rutes out a! do~b.l(!: zJgzflg,!.IDen dl~" wnr~C'tion will very ~i.toely trace outa ElM or an i!IT;egular. :f(jim:,])~ltiOll.

5). A flat fo.rnl:taito.n ls eonsidercd ~ iii. (~~mpl~x CQ;r:recL1on; .md. SO ~, 'i:rregu·~~fS:. ~ri~~gle!!l., d ouble ~mre.~!', ~Irlilrl triple .~lIIee!!'i.,

[) It is extreme,]y common for C W3!Ves :~n :ttm:.gl!llaJ' nll.t correctinas 10 be 16U~ rimes as long ass A W3!~~ (lrreg!IJ~arCOrfecnOfll;, are I,'ery common in. torex 11il3frt.e~S.", especially in I~ i.O~minut~ ~. ~lOl,n;ly charts).

2) Wn·v·e B la an 'irre~fid~lir,cQ'~tiolil I!i: ]l"ef!l.UJendy :U _3.82 rimes dre I.e..ngtli ofW ~.vtf· A_ If\\i':jft",e B is [.6 [:8 times as, ]001 as W·aJlJ.Ie A (if more, tileD. t1e<!ldency is (ot W:av·e C to em; at '~he srune le·ved as W.ave A,

'V~V A-I

T

t

V'

='=--=~~~~--='~'- T

A .'.1

c

3) 'W'::'L''ife C of ~1'Ii i['[-eS1U.~!i!;r ,CfiFn;!;Ctioo is co.rnmor.Lly :~ .618 d!J]le'~rs. :[!jt'; 1,f1(1g as \-Va'!l€. A. Oi1l 'rare' occassions, 'W,!1l.ve f: maybe 2JS [8 times il!!slong; 'blLlt only if\V~.v'e B h~ OOe1~ I]lQXe' .han '1.,618 times as ~.ang as \Va ve A.

I

II

4) It is also fairb" ,co'[:Uumn :f'Of. ~rne distance 'be~Wetl1 n~e ~lfIfIpuUse \Na,W'S ~k,aoo 1\CtiPI of ''Wa.ve 'B, ~ be,eG/IlJO:I!i to r!lUJI:: dibiiULii.+'I:' bel.wt;:t;:·!.I. uh~ il;:!uJ uf' W,l1'W-e A i!lim~, tIilC bot~.Q-J:!il O'FW:;L,'I,1"~ C" ]~ii!lrr,h~.g ~qii.!i<il[i~.y, th~ '~!iltb:JJ1ihir 1~!:'l!!~8-n thE ap:pendfi,ge-~ :us likely '1'(1 be f,J F~[h;(wiill:'l(:d rnl-[o.

5) The normal ranacement of an imgll,!l.l3!I' OQfiIeC~~O:Iiii is 3;S.1 percent from t1:1t, Qril'llOO\o~ end t1f the ~dilla(~n.t impulse w.ave.

(j~ ]u iil '!iJIjJ['~ J,m:l!I.~ .. !r:t ~lU'l;'~I,IiWI 'I,;~J.~ i'l;'''''~VJ ~~ (Iii!.:' '!l."!..!'M.v.L~,L 'vf"\V~ ,,"'r;; A ~ '!il-'U~ k.)"'ila]w,!lYs hi,jgneil' d111illtii .he bO'UQllli 'o:f \'Va, ... ~ C_ Th'G. OOn ..... erse is true ln iii, bear rtnJ''lir'k"el' ~'m!,gl'l~:fiif' C!iIofI-eCi'rc:JriI ..

""j) If OD.If' panem ~~a'rr~, '~rHi:h a ]-:WHl"lt S!WCHllJ:'e" and ~~ubseqlile11[ 'ma[l~et d(iveil,lI)prne.tu rules >OIII~ ~,drmble z~g:,::'ag., dlen 1irn.e o01'rec~il(1ln '!NUl v,e~ Il.K€,iY trace !l)lM~ a fiat '01" '~rregili~;rur' fonllmliOJ~.

IV\ r:

i TII.~ 1l~~---tl''''':!!ir,v'''iI' i J N;" ~lr,i!iIW~ .!"!ir~""'J""!

8} Af'll 'irre~iL~'~0.1i" 'il~ oommide.re(~ R cowplex (:ofire~li!l):rli: :md. '00 ru"t iflltl!ts:. '~lriftliu.1es" dloulb:le trn~~ ~nd tri1]le tbJees-

9) TIlle concept 'of (}!'lhodo;,l: ~'~t; Md, Orlf'j~)E ,f)t!)'Jtl'J.~ must ee wett uiitde.:rSlood ~,(} lle :;:J!ble to accept d~e :propt):o;hiil~U i(hau. hlllr~ w~d bear IllofLIr'k0tl5 do liliOl1 ~tc~-s~~riil;y 'c:r~ !1t the Gi'i.trctlii~!ti<cs of price l~.o'!,l'gme:~~;o B:nefl.~" atl! ltPW:!!J.'dS fi ve-wa v,~ ~e~,.!eUli("€ ~I~ ~I~' the o('lfljullcf.inn II1Ihh~ :flHh. ''I'!,ra,ves or several degrees h:he, so-called '"~f.inb WITh,ve !l):f'llte FJifth W'..t've ot ihe' fiHh wavet')

U saally '~h~£ COIlJ~II1!.cIjOrl m:ll.l1:~ rue ,e:xt~mi'~.y irlJ price" BW. :iff .he ensalng ci1Jif[el;;~ilJu~ [1<£ Iho;: '~~~Jl'il!."t:: ,[u¥~·wa ""'Ii:: seqneuce l~!ik.c~ ilK' f'o(!!]'ID 'of iiLlil :iI~,~lP.it' p'~J!'i~~~ 't'h.e:n by de:fi~:l~~:i.of,1l, ih,e. p:!::[jik. 0([ iillt! ,~rre,~b.r. eorreerion (\V::1iv'e 'R) willi. execed '~hf' orthodox t,op_ The converse iiS true ]ur. aJi1S f~'Ve·w,!lve £eQliL:l.en,Ce gO:~ilIg do'WNi:w;~~,

1- \ T,t t' 'II' ..... f; it',",," TTl .... >:!'. ""',' ~_Ii"" .. b ~_le ;i."".."ms. under '~b.£ \V:::i\'e'

,j ,lle Ilnang~e lS Ollf- 'liLUC:: uW;Jo~ 1,',"".L4+!..!' _ I!,~? _

fr.~rbcip'~e. us SJippe~I'IDe- ts :pm;;;~ie:!JJUy a ,g!.1!axWl~'~e;e' ~l!~'[ tiTle prev,a'~l:uU1lg bend w~.'U coatlnue. A lJ:ii!ilL~,~,J'e Is ,Ii h(ttd.~iIlg 'pfLtt~m wh~9'h ~,P.~t~ two' '\\':'Jl.\''CS i:i:1: !lIl-e, $:l;UW di"'ec1;li.)f[ (W::;!:."o!e~ A and C, er 'WiXV.f.~ ::;, ~OO S}. So 'theii'i!'!~:'If~ ihv ~1il~Ere:-nce, ~he. ~~t1lfn.!lSl~" [roJ]ij it'h£- l.r.ialig~e is the last UiiOV,el'neri.t in ih~' pmVtln~[lg ~Rmd.

2) h]$ ii'iOltlla~ [Q'J;' e WaJves o:h[,um~es (the last leg) toexceed me '~tiangl.e 1J00IJIn.d;a[J li!I[t:; il.l.~ ." (i:1]~ liIl,eiillli..'lJur"" t:hJl'W~'I/~ ~ ,IE Wi:'L'Vii;o:.;, H"I;',,"'I;i!. !;;,1i;_'i.lI;~, ~~ ~'~nl.i:; po511i-n hjt on 'W~,v~ C, S.cc d]!4~ illiO fu.n{:iwit'il~ ~ge.

'.n Ape;x.es oQfhloriz'o~~IilllriaQ~e~ 1JM;1ll811y 'provid!e: siglil[fk~]]~. Sl1ipport 'M} any cl.ec'li:oo a'[re:r a major rwplilll1!!st. This comes as a conseqaence o:f u]a~ng[,~, be~~u~t :~oc~ted. :~n '~rne 4tm Wa,vr,:: :po-shlCiul "ilI. arty n'!fie'-'~,'Na

/ I

/

se~u!Jt.n;ce. COJ1Jv·eU'st,l y. a llii;;'.u1!~Je's apex provides major resistance ~'IJ any ral]y afl~iI.'a m~o:r decline.

AhemA~i 'U"e waver. wu~h:~n. symm,etrtc~ niM.uzol'al;alt'fiamgl1efi 8.00. U:!SU.~ tilly reJ.a]ed,byllrn~tQoff .. 613 (i.e..~'C= .6]8A~ 'D:::.. .,6186; E- .618C) For cX~l1IrJ.ing triaJil.g'£'C~, th~ ~hC'..rnIi'i~ w,m. ... ,~::; ;i]if.c :ffS~U~tl'tly :r.clo..tsd =.<0 t:h"ie: if:L·~tI!O' ii)'f ] .6'~ 8 .

5) The· principle o:f ~,Irema.tio:r.i wiJ1i~~n a ni~f[gLe warns IlS to ex:pect t1iJ1IJ: 1"10 adjacent waves, will 00 Si!]iJl.lw- hLl form,

(ji,), Wh.c:n Mu; td~(iJ"~i'!: il,.:lIJ:u~J;dlj~'" ."h~ 'I;:;!~liu.ti t.:lUifJ~~'~UI'I. ~!Iluht:[· Il.:hliU ~ !lJU~}' ~. f'{U't of "-'I. m: ... I,tiFl~ i~h,"'Ii:":'). i.t n:"j,~y Qi;!oI;!U;!,' Q'~'d~' ~ ,ut... '\("·~'I.·,!e~ ur 'i.1l g: w (\"!o!!'~. B~ u · 'ilifthe h'i:alil~ik: occurs ss ]urt.-n;r adouble-tnree orutriple-tnree, the erlith-e co '~C'~iQI1. {!a~ !be. Sl.tl.Uli1:ed. even :Uf1. the 2nd! wave position,

7} [If it hodmM~ ~riJM1I,g1e. QiCCIiI["S as pa:n, of a :miLl:itip,ie th:,'e'e partJtem it can ooctI.r OO.Ey as. '~11e ]ast termanon. or as. ,ao if1litmenlng x: w~V\e '!between basie :Fu.ifm;-,

:R;) COI'Onary to the above, iI the :h[': t Cil.ll1>ec~i'Ve pa.tl:em t{} evo~",'e is II h(!lriZQl1i~ilI!l tn:Ji~gle. dim fJn~ can rule ol!.ll further d.gve-:~oprnli:gjJ.t iillito a d\luble~ 'CH' tri:p'le=I2bRte.

'51) The ihn~:;l. ulliU fl.}~.h.l'l\i::S [1:1:r"" L'lCm:~i.fm:uiIJ)Jli 'uf ~ 1,[ku~gL~ in Lh.~ 4th wa.¥~ position ",,;][I gC;t}cx~ll~y 'be of the sitrnc":: 'E~~h!ill the w.ide'!'l~ pat!! of 1l1e iruwn.i,l;1e. ~q~,e- ~li,iJig'r.mm helnw:

X='Y

,5,

I,

@) / ¥

.:~

. /

.-,,~=,,~ ..... ~, ~,

'~\!!i

X·

,

[0' H.owe:ver, lib: po~J;,n~i~1 Uf~.#~TK:!it (RllH ii, ~U,ii.1!II~~,e ~hiil1i. :~~ me 'c:~y pi'd of ~ dioiil:!JkAhrt;G 0:1' tr.i.p]c,-d:lire,c i:fi ~lO~: .d.cl:C;mj~h1;Cd !by the tri!lJjI~G~e: 'E.i.rIt1H1i It iii! illP,J!it'nrll"n1' fijlffl ,;hlf." Jf~lintrli!"i'ii. ini'ii~ ii"lf it1,P- ;.>on.·iff" I'Ill'l'IIh·j[llle..thlil:'.:1t ron~~~~ion '~n which 111£ u~kmgle i~ ,:1 p:ll1. Tile lo:nger and, wider it is, 'Diile more e)il:leif1~'j.·i'!;l\e the :Sl!l.hs:eqlLl,oo~. thl1Jl;s!t.

11) -rIle ext.e'nt oUi1e I:hr,~8"l :from a ·~.llWJgle 11:1 nne; :0. 'Wa\'~ PO$i~iOO is [,;t1Jjil;;:ctW. d.iJf~D"l:ndy,. D;y illlp'] k;4I;t i,Q.Il, 'ill tlTj,l.mg;'ic Q~~rrin,g ,;:\8 a COUilil~ia.nm) .. -e C:Ml Q1111~l appe~.J' m '!he, B WQve pQ€:'It~Ofl. ,of 3! 2~gzag.

'.

'I,hefeliaoo; 'Ui>B' SUJt!iSeq_lten't 'Urn:JiS~, [OOLll the '~ri:m_gle r~he C W,:;r'ife) is iil\;,'d'y tl;1' 't,)le tiljjliillli lu t'h~ ki1igt'h uf lifi~ A W~Vrt;. (:i~ ,~l">;J .zig.lfi£S in this ':;;11~tC'rl

],i} ]J ihe first le~: off Ihe 1ldwgle (\V'a,ve A) is no longer i1l1 time s-cak '~b.eliJ OnB should oonn~U:y expect fri,)~n rile dF~,e~l\om1 oftne preceeding sequence, e~ :~~: the i.asi :Ueg (Wa,ve E) 1)0 '00 ite!,ati,¥~'ly sma]ler i~li scale tl'ito \V',!!!,'I!e A.

1)0 Z~ag8 and dOl!l,b]e l~,gt;a,gs; ofl-en ruf.itmru to as deep 'CQrre,cli~t:'rte~d, to retrace 6~,.~ percent ar fJ:1Iol'e oJ 'Ill,e :~itI:rn,edi:l'l\f:ly p'rec~eed~mtg :umpl!ll:~ \\ra,ve~ e5_p~!i,;it.H.1' W1lC:IJJ ~i~,~ !IJ"'~IJ."~ull,e{;t~.lUl ~~ iii! u.hlt 2nd ~y;.'iljf!fe ]JQolS~,tio:n. If ~'~~ d~p {:o:~cti:o[l O~UfS .:!<5' ;;!,-\1'lh 'W~'l!,~. dlc retr.~'LCemer.t,'t L'S U~l~'::!I1]y so rero~!l!ili'", (~r n~r:r::]y 1:R.l re~cen,t_

2) ]'rlJ '~ne forexmarket t'he usual :ni~at.i.o:n5h~p :~IiJ,~ zlg~,g' correcrlon is for 'Wa\'~' .c to be' '[.61:3 times as long as \Va,ve A, The seeond 'Wl0g~' .(.'iQ~nO!!1, t~~aj:iDnSihip IS ]'OU' '~ljlave, C 1'0 !be eq,l)Iil!!! t'Q' 'War,vG; A.

3) \V;:!;v,c B ~ ;::;" :;::i,~z~,g fiCilitlf1li::lU j' :retf.tl:oes 3 2.1 perc'el1t of t~~ :rr~('e'i;!d:i!!1@; WH'I.i',f.'" A iFiH1iy ]"If'.'Ii'f:~I!I"I' 'IlPJ"~Jt.l~I'Ii~IfIN' tlWl:!U'fS Iess o filf ill .. 'l,~.ih~.lle: '01.:1':: 'pe:roent renscernems iar.Jie rare,

4} In double zigzag ft)rm1'li~~tJ~ t l1.1e seceod 1:1gz;ag u.suaUy Iiaishes s~i:nc,aJ1iUy ]Q'!I't'eI Of W,ghe:f ~ tne lelllljllil1~iol1l O\f'.he fi:rst,. as ['!J"I ihf'~,;1_SC 'ofbl,11] ~ll,O, bear (T.1ii1l1u:k~~i!'i, ~~~t-i'lf(;1.)".

j) 1111 a, double z~;g;:t;:!.~, dtt:, X Wi;l'!.''e i(,;;~~, .ilI~J.:; ~b,y :il~li!,~: ,;,t ,z~~ a, tri,~glc, ;!.Ii, 9ii.i1it~ Q'L' even ;]. -dQ"l;!:olc th;:CG~

6) X w,l).ves ~n ,I). d.ouJb'le ,:dgziIlJ:'!: 'Oneil reach !he same lfvel. ss the pr.eceooilL,s I, '~v,ave- SOO ]o~~bw.ung dillgrnm.:

/

.A

c

7) There is no 'fe~W:b1e" way '~),1) :p~dict ~e OCCLlIren.ce' of OO~:ble-ligza,g~; HOI~vevetri' ,~~ .. '~he rufS1l: zigzag: b:a.~ 'retraced, ,~e.."<j.s lhafnl 51] pereem '0'] Ihe pre"ootlUng impub~ ,,",",,!;tv,!;::, itn~,;i;:!r'i 1t)Il~;~ ,!;t ::i1il::i~Ct~ X W',i!L"t1l:.i hii~ Ilt!!U, ;r;;.,~;;0;;11 p:i(:iil~ i1hrul:l: ,6 I ,:8: :r~~i;!;r:llt, .;;:!![ the fm~t A.g,iC ~~qUi:!WL~e, {:!le,~, dii:>!J.gmm :i.!ihfl'v'[~), 'Itie'f'E '~~ 'hig'h ,p'm'na.hiH~ '!jflf ~ d.\cu.!IiMe: 7.1gn;g oecIIl[:~ng:,

l} A d~,ag{1ilil~ t~glc is. ~ w-G~'c.. shOlpC.d. ':9:ITl!;;;:!,1;iOIrli 1" .. h:ch is ~ ~·";I:l'l:Y:!:i ,p,f!os:~mioned, a~ the 1"E'~'1iI8d(lIil ,['!If the m ~rge"r move .(5 .~_, a "ii:1m W 8i'i,l'·e or :iIJ C Wa.ye).

':2) As, ~ 5th wav~; ihe ~nagm~ triE!l1Jgle lfJi5ua],ly exceedsthe end Qfth.e 300 wave, Hut :i'tt '~:Ile dj~gO((ll!;l:i, p;iXJ!.t-e:rn tans to S"YI'p.!l.SS '\ _ ave ), expocl: a tllJ.rh.:~ ~n!,'(1 ~b~I' iJ I,~'io'e.rs~"

'3). A ~h9rJ11 reversal :fonOWl:ng' 3.dia:gq~8] trlm1!i.le I!JSI1H~.Uy takes nu~ ~ih@j)e of a z;lgzag or d.Q~lble :dg~~, Tn~ :oo'..;r,[ITsa1 ,!lorma.!Uy nm:acts bac.k '~O where the diagonal tdfi'Il!gle heg.wfi, (te'ooirms of 'W,iIj,ve 4)."

4.) There ts ~ strong t~nd\(.itlty ~ontte f[!rlITe,d];3_gomlill tri~n,glt:: ttl be L6U;i, dl.l.1i!:s a~ long ,~s Y-t'i),V'fi:. 1.

5) Wlthi~ di3J.8ilfit1lll.riatlllglles, W,mve 3 is uS'llIaJly O,Gl~ tro.es as :bn as W,~ve :~,

6} DOl not ,erxpeci: the :snil Wa'l,1"!f; o:~',a,di&gona[ m.angle. ].0. l\ftm:u,na~e e:.\acUy. ~'~ me ob1ecIlve. uend~511€-~ b i ,', lild.y ~o OV!l;;[l!inv-I,~~, m 'lu Ci:!I,H U,'llI Jr;;a~i~ .l·~ liil:gei, trcndlinc.

7) \V1b:en :iIJ I!luag,o[1,al triangle is ill] the 5'~iJJ w,mve or 'W,aye. C piOSitlQIl"i' as ~.t .Il100t oom:mo:n~,y is.;, i~s rn~e:mal waves are composed of.rnf'ts" Bu~, when it]$ ~Q.cated hi 3J \Va,V''' A pOOiliQll, 'iI'S; impulse waves ateJ!ve:s.-

Bi) ffi:gh~J pereem of d iilJ,gl.lll'~ u:i~n ~e.5 '0.Il,;C!a[ as tMilr;:: .5 til W,;Jf~ L)(f '~:'lfl~ j;~ W!!i."",'e of Ii m,mg,el"de:gre.e. ThliS' can be inferred from tne obse .at~Qn .bat di9i!J;IIJ'D8] ·n-ri:iilflglu. oecur when the. :preceoo~ng move in tbe same W,il.'V€degree h!)S mO""100 too mud1 too sooa,

Substirlu't le n lof Patterns

'I} A rive" W ~'I,Itl' ~-ql1:,f'iIl('e 'Uri a 1Jl'"'~ W~I\I'II'! '1iliI:l9j" he' :!'i~i~J~'itl!Jl!erll 'b,y a diag(m~ tri81~e- In some rare eases however, 3,d,~~p correctioa, I ike a, dOllible' fir-even fri1lle~ zi.gz~. '1lllJ;a.y replace the 'I].V"e~'w.!lI,"Ie sequenee, The OC(:IJJ['~ renee of' paUeIDS other 111M} dliagona] tdan,g~,es in C waves wa.s not d~sc.ussOO, i1Jy tillliot~ but (!jbs.e::rvilI~'~mu;· Qf'w.te· p'he:nomenorl in ~h'(:' ffur~ 11~,11!l,lk~ll 'h,,;) bC~I~ !l'1,~Iij"::I~iI: nougjl to W4UTo!IiiI~: an. Cj.;,c:C.p~iOfi to ge~c~ .~ ne l'~ {II f W,R ... .e MlIiihl ys:i s;

2) In ,il dOl!lb]e daru~ O~ uiple rhree, hClli.1mll~ru, tri3Jftgles ge]1leniU!.y occur as tile last fum in tbe, panem, flow-ever. ho:nz,olltal u·~a.ng1es can also occur a_:s, X wa.,~es:~ e;ffec.~i 'i,ilely cill'l1I:DOCltng iwo or. 'liliI,ore: g~mp,le .fO!:1mS intQ a .s:i!~e complex :fOIIl1lii.itioJ]).

IP'8rrt V

IPlr,lc'tical Guidla_ .ce

Success :in usiug wave alJlalysEs is, [j,.ij)( U[],erely a ques'tioo Q! ap]plr~[]:g l'Uilles~ Q'1]'ymore than, S3!)i, science orma.Ulematics:. It does I]O'[ nlere]ymak,e tne most cIlJlHbl~I4l!~.LOli:li possible .ru;{:ofding. to' q;;~~5n .hx.e.d. laws orrules, 'F.h~ ;;;::otD'ilh'1~liktiol1ls so o,ht3!ilfLcd, wo~dd. ib;e 1510 e.:r.;,,~e<lin,gly :oil!lm;el'c1!1s" cum'bieBlI(l1111i2: :ll11of.1 plf:ll:·liclIflly useless, The true work of d~ and}'.,! consists in dnoos'ing among these coolbjrna~iQ'!lls so as 10 eii,m1rrlciM:e' those of :~imited vahle. or rnrn,iTler '~o avoid the: trouble <0 ma jng lhem. The rules d1att must ~uid.e, the ehoice are extremely fine' and, dencarte_ II: is almost im.po~sible.1\iJ ,sna:te mem precisely; ltLe.y rnjl:l~t 00 feJit ratner lJJ[;jj1J] fQIIlill1:~amd.

'HIe: Preltiieh {llstt{5UHMne'l:',. phy~id!lt, m:!;ir[h,emlltk,ian cnm-pbilcso,pileII'. Jl[]il1e'l. H 'riJri P,[,hiJL~:tire: who 1 "ted, at the. tum of'the ,(;t:fl.tury,. wrotejn his. ""'Folll1laatioo .of Sc.'eno~io' ,aoou~ deteEmEIll,]lllg which iilypolhesi-' or which :fatffi to examine ~n situani0 ns whkh '~",admm. an illlfbi!hy of otrn"lr.s""

hJIn.C:!!re S'll!Iggesred '~llaI th£. se:t£(:[iOIIJ is ml!ld!l: by wili;lt ~!iI;:: !,;~J~, llh~ "'.l,IJbtii~runal ~.eU'''·; ,iiI.!11 entity dblit.t cen bl;;: llibl;:f.Jod, t,o- ·"piC.·,i~i'ldk(:tu.~! ,ilW;;li~· fl.e s'". '[hE" g 'ulhlirn n t'I.!lI 11 '~o!"l ( P,..,hl4''A~ ~':'!h1. 1.i'lii ~ ~Ii' :lI1 IA'~'P '~mmh~.,. nf

'oFlfJl~OOs 11) a pr(jble~. hlf~. only the iDlterest~ng ones 'bmak, it.l!ti:o l11e domain or coesciossness. Mal~mar!icaJ so'll1Itiiomu; are elected, by itte suhlimmml selfon Ihe bssis of Hf1rUlilhem,a,tica.1 'beal'it~l" o:ft'be lil:;rfW[il.Q:ny f)flJJl!J~1I1b,~rs; and forms, of ,geometr.oc ele.g3oc,e. ''''',Ibis is, a true ae.sUoetic fee[ing wlil[(;h au tnmb:=IDll.tic:ila'filiS mil:J<V/', :Poi]u;;~~~ :5ii!itl, ··bum. of which th", profane 'Il1f1::i 5'0'

»gn.<m1I.n'i: as often l'G be tempted to s.mile". It is, t~'lis hsnllolllj" and lDe:IU~y tha~, ~. the cellltre of U. :!Ii.ll 111.~S ms no romantic beauty '~hal PO,~[lca!re was ~,:lLIlKmg ,aboUII:;, He meant "class ic" bl;::i;lll,lly" lbl!l.i. li;.u.i,n~ (.IUIU .it(: ~ Iltil:.Ii!.tU!J![t.) 1,15 \)1 ~Jt.~ 'of the, :~!li!'E.sl ,~1t.Ld w:hi.ch ... p~r<:: "n~U' s~e c::.G'i grottS~,

I'~ is dds sense o'f bEiaui,y whkh should make an ;M.Lalys:~ c'IiJ!IQSe· rile· facts tha~ cornribere ihe ~oSI: to Mis. h.:armOfl!Y" Uu~.I)". U1.e facts 'by 1:li1e.rnselves do"not suggesD mueb, OF',!l.te WOXiU'll. mudl. h is when th.e :f~iS metg~' 'with i~he 'mat[1lx or nle wave stliljlc~u:re It!!:n '1iIa.rn.noo;~, ,arid ~llereFQre sueeess, ib; ~J..::]d!i;:: 'V,.,[].

P,nh1£3're ~ lliggest d some' nile." i 1 da$'si~)r~lllg facts. :r£ru:Ii"ng to a maU'lelinat~cai] bypotne5is;, '\Vit'liW :$Ilight Itlodlfi.catians, we can use Ms· guidelines ,illl d..:.tennining Ihe he'[mrd~y 'of :f.aets ~bal shm.( d. lead 'WI a pro:~.J" "couat" 0.[ dille wave sl' uensre.

The UI1![fl"1O:: :s(:rneua:l a f&t" U~) rn.QJfoG. [d~·v,LiUJJt i~ is. 'fhG~ ...... :Itoi.;;;;:'h serve 111l;::u1ll' times are be.1:!:er '!!1.J',tr,j t'h~~ ,~",ltiii{'h h:.\'Ve I[',tife eh .. 'Vill':<e· of ~cIlHl'irilg. ;il',jn, ''iI,re sk: which f~(:1.s: :!lIve' Uk'f:I],' 1:0 3PP£m? The sim,])1.e facts, How 1:0 l'e\:Q:g~ nise them? Cho~ those dna'!. seem shnp!e. JEitiile'r this s,hn:plic,~(.y is 're,a.l, or UiJ.e eom,p]ex e·lemens~s are bld.IS'Dil1lgru.m.shable. If i4][ji re~, we m~ 1i.k~ly to meet lids simiJ}\e, fa.c.: a,gain., either aJ011<!; eras an ,ele:mem ,~IIi;jl, more camnplex tact, !ltllln stan Wt~t1 .he snpl'£ ones. Occam's [EOI' b; ~ I;;!lJtIU.B-l~ili[L!:1. 4l!1];.lUij m;;;~ll (:U[: :-i11H1,Il·i!i,:,ily

The·lIrinc.rvie ofParj.8'im~oov. otherwise kn.o"v.n as {)cc.afn·S R!;U)o[". holds t~'UM~ w!heIl! tms!1n,g rulNJtmdl ,expl00 ~iOO. for. a Imatl1J['a], ])iTleIllOl'l1.e:nM :tOll should! o.p'm, for the ;s,.im:ple:n '~heory tJam 111$ the f~.~, • s tiTle [ourt'e€..ntiil~' ce[]!~UIY. W'hUowplller Wilham of Occam p,lts :it "Non ~lI.mt mufl,tip]icat\'d'a e,m:ja preater w;:4,;!!;:~lLae-ll} "ElIlllli,e;s sholl.d!,l m:l'.I. be .Hld'mi:pllro 'beyood. ~~!coc.ss.h}r). ,Frul~ '~O ~!2d OW:t.l!Ilt.I, :ES g'Gll.GfaH.y.an 'unY1~:atiO'Ji'i t'(JI, 'tJioubJ!e;",

Lts p;rop~" ~,O boe~ln with the. I'fJ:g;til~ facts:, 'but ~e'r a wgr!il~ ,COUint '!!l e<~~,illh~ lehed, 'ItJP. f::l(':~:5i l'liI (':(~Ii{Fnlf"iil'iril.,;, whh UI becomes hla~ because t'ney :110 ,Iormer teach afUYtnmn,g :OO~\'" 'TIl en its mhe excepnon dm:t becomes im.pmtant So we' seek net fe-semtiJl,3Ei1ces" trion differences, ADld we choose die: most aocen~lU.ated diff-e!reace."';, llIot,O[][), because tney are me most strilkjn~, Iltd also necaase uliley are' tne rno.SI, msrruetive.

Th~ :i!K!xt tl~iIi£li (0 do iog to Look fur"'C~I~o;; hI whi,('h ~'ilj'i'l:. ~v,e lC':flTlililt Irl::l~ ~he' greatest chances ofhuli~: assume eitner;il very hlfrge !J]lOI\'-erne<lI~ ill' p!ice or a, very Ia:rge movement ,~Il [iHlle. Almest ,a]ways~ 'we' filiJd 'llHl,Lt hl these extreme projectiQn~ our W3f~r'e C(lfilHltS are 'O'VernU[fI.ed, Toe'st 'u:psd:$~~:ru':e irnJpol1:aitt~ Uiiey e[!ahie~b.e a.fiIalyst to see. !DeUer me lJjttlle· 'c-llm~ that may hap;pefil :UK:iIJIi" illils. puiw, t).f [!i;::[~E~lIJ;;li:i, Wbii~, W{; iM'C ny~i1IS 'ID do ~li;«i ~:s I :SS' dil0. ~cri.tllnmli::i~~ oJ ]ik-e nesses ;:l.l1l!d, dif!fC1!'1;l!l:tcc.s: but r:.dhu ~:'he: l:'eoosml1lion, Qf 1ikelliL:"-r;.:~t'oi rnidd~l~ under =tjp,[lalD'e'm (I,iver.g:elilres,

]f ~, [.Oi/;m; on each '1Iild:uvid'll~ rule or tenet in Elliot \¥ave 8:1l3J1_y:ris the eolleenve rules a;ncl, l,enels seem tu be di.Mloxdallt at: f~t, But loo:ki.n.g more closely ~ we '~, Ul see im g,e:rnIet,aD, 'Uial Hilly resenllble each crmner,;, dUf.emm ::;.u ,i:JL"j. ~JL!' .LI~lliU(;1[f bul alike jn ]'o,mIJ, and ~~!ui.]ar. as to ibc order ofthcrr :p.~m" ThiE: ;n:::tkc::; ",,"';:.!i,viC!: :1:i:1:::'J:Jysis, co J!!srnS ~: t'i!~~" But as ~OCJIll ss ODe II nder'I:.ti!1~nrls, 1~1~"'1' i'h~ :ffifi~I~1lI1 1t.!l'1irn~l\e::dly emanates from the mtIlld,pnd~y of 'posi)ibul'~tie~, OOCtal1S€ ~.om'e ~ tOO few rules, then t]rm task of :looJ!in,g al. likenesses {sinrllarilies) beoom~s less da.[umt~[tg ,md <:aTII even beoom~

, 'L.]

oelliJO.yithl} e.

U~)4!U,;:..._,.ct:r;::,flll:1 usc of EUiiQ'& 'VfJ.~ ,.:, .~.L!j-.:;:ii .. ,t![;i~i;. ,~.r;:r!l: '~""'fi:)'i:; ~tO:J;}'t from f;~I!ilm,'e- to app'ly :~a niles and tenet ' lDredQ'!~ly. [Ii m:ifily r,:m!.!:;£~ where ~1le1'e i : 00 siflJrific;!;lJlt progress, '~he MJ~ysf$ sense OIf values and 8!u:iilud,es are more to blame than anything ej]S(:', "foe moot common (on'ttibuu,oTS, 10 f: arihlJre E a) lae Ii of persi ~relJ)ce and ~!litel L~dlU.a[ hones ty] b) illif1le,;jjb-:ulii~y, c) 1OO 'bilg an ego, eI.) MlXlety. e) boreoom, and,:ij 'impilJt~enoe.

An aspuri'l1g ''liY''d,v;e analtysl moods a t:'illrl. ,o.f··slUibbmlllless~ dila.l is ,e:I1~ ge.nde!redby 'iot,enectual 'blonest,1""There c.ru!loo,nosllort~cutSi in wa,ve aaalysis" A redl;!Uion oJ a,iPlfi[(~sibl!e' scene 1[1 w.arverut;[l,ysis, wm i1kls1nll'e Eke 11IO~]]t.

"(!J)I!I {Il1l; ~m:I!]}'~~,I!I,~ ill! dttlrt ,l:iLnUtl wa'll't:; ilUlLk:II~, ilI!:p~af,s. wlrli-ch Y1liU CiUiI :no4;,d~if}"" Y'olOJ ii,~!D~'"?'I'I over :~!: ,~[iJd OOlllt~~,'i:i.e ""if1~h yout"wa v e- ~rfiU~U YOil!!:, ftiliillid i~ 8lm:;u:~'y if',lldl!ig ahead [Q' 'w I'ri art, ;should eV{l,]y,e. so b takes a Hu~e ti~ ~.o remJl£:e (hat this unclsssl jed ~1ino:l' 31I'!1!11oyane,e of'a '~oo]N:eglU!lar' pauem, ls :no~ jlllsm, irritating :mel m]i1I(1I'" It h~ stopped YOU1 from pUi('Jceed]llIg any fUMer. YOUl 3:IFe.IilOW(lOmpietdy surck." 'f.Iti,'C;Ii'nI:no longer arrive at SJrSOUli1(l W:!INe' C01.!!,Wt.

Thls ,~s: 'Dliot a filr-e' ~gce{!il~rj]; in w:il!VG! M~.y~~S" "fhil.'~ is pe!rfil~~ _'be '[1iIif~' oomn1O'lil, problem of 4IJlt 'F'Of tbe· ,an!!i.l,:ysl d'ib 'us the worst of al] m{Urlet.JJts,

Reasoning o.w~ 'is no, good to you, now. You do lim neerlany' one to tdl yoo. wh:~1: [s wrong_ ]ts obvious what Is wrong" Wlnal y,ou :II ood, 'IS 3, nypomests, now 10 CliIissi:fy the 'ut:C;:WiciJtllUJil ~'1;1(: l~t'l'~m. l''tI.E:li :i,s ulre zer ..... j,lJ;O~11IeiU of r'lIluQniiiJhy. I~ '15. ~~ itLt dil~ poim ~o :[~~l Jik~' '~r;;li;:u~!I1;g up ,the ~h~ :i!!fIlc 1itd~ pieee "YQ['Ii think ~b('itlt it arnf.J .11;- lIi.lIT.' you .'h1~1;k ,iJI~lifil'!ri h, the m:ilOlt:. yOI!J are ;ndine~, bJ 'tlrurow thus 'book. ililto ~'~e dl!Js~bin ,and] :[Q,r~· about the whole eoneept, h 'is oo.U'age(ru.s how ~11] uncla S'£ufie(l, ··';s.qrJ]iggle~' in a chan can 1'O~an~' defeart yo,u:r "perfect' count However, the :r:e,all:i~y :~s thaI '~h-e ID8r'kd is 00', oonJomruillg to ~ha1 count, So' tile '~!ligg[e'''' IHus-l nave a V2liill~, (h[;JJ'V.fuu::: d.~'!; '!.I~)lBU~, ,i~, W'~'UI!l;5'

Th-P. [ll.f.'I;ral ,Oi[ i he slo:r:", is, obvious. Be :ullIi:eUoctuaJrl.y oone:s.I,;, Ibe !J11~ Cbl~s.-sified, WI1V.'€ panem is ,a problealih, so treat, i~ as such, Do riot "glloss," ov~r h. itesob.re lite sltuatiOfD, becanse i'tt will slJucly resurface later Of!J ~o ~1;Yun:u~ )'QUJr ef[OFlS\,

I

If one finds oneself In. this sltu~~i(JrL. obviCiUS]Y the 30~lIIdoo im'~ find tae n~['e:\J~~.t fact OF" setoffacts t1:1Ja!: wi~~~ enable you to P.1II~: a. Labe~ Q:fI '~he wave p.::UleD_.

I I

A{:!i,:I;.Hiltiug UJ ~hr;;:: ·'dt)Cl~."lUl!:: '!Jf'lJbj~ti.'!' iti;' we ~'hmdd ll1:"'p"·I;.)uJ: mlud as ,jJi.b'blId.. ~;)!b~ct whkh :rl>l!!tWE'l;; ·WI.~m :£:'EU f:o["il;l 8;. :;Ina.lih,e:t1. i.'e:i.:i':o;t1I ,rJi$i~!'e're--~.t~dly flfDli1iI ~hQ; 'f!flf:'~s we ohserve. C~ei11:r'~y .• !·ill~~. h, p"[!i!'i:.h"!rrS;.'1i~d flm:'lilil tlifm.f.:_ At;; Poincare WQuid 'hav'€ $arht there is an ~.nnnite llUffilJJhe;r'{lfEilC~S ~bcrut the W1I.Vc~ ptJ!tl~mj and the dg_ht ·ones do, un.: .nece£5al'i1.~y danee up arm'd introduee '~:l1.em:re]\!'esThe :right EiilCt'i, ·~he·'O[l-e5 'W'e:~;!!iHy need 8ltc':Dlill't (ll~[Y ·p~..$si\1e~ dJ,~.y are·.e;IILl:s:uve_ y (!i1Ll.h:W.ve,'[,Ci be is'earctiJrng [o~rlillle,m, 'ot.he~r'Wis:~ 'th~ uue psnem wm OOLlII:rJifold. and the OOUlIlJt wm remain ]Ofiiil;,

Orne ,of nile 'key requirements cf aJ. g)ood lW~I'i,i'·e: 3I11al.:y;Sit ~s Hills albi[j,ty to ~afie!lI~jly se~ec~: the 'm:~0v.a.lj'~, f~C>ts :from lite irre[evat Q:fI'e,~, and to 4!l!Jkk.ly :re~ognii3e those 'errQlS as and ·~vthen '~hey occur.

The dif1erelDiCe berween a. good. wave :mail.:y'$~: and a ibad uae 'b, .p .. e;.c;i~ly Ii.'h;s ability to &cl(;C'~, illJc gooo ['8",t:;; frQiin t'r,g; ~.d. Qil~ ;;)in l1:'l1~ hilisb ~f a ''''f;ee·~i:r!.~· 0:11 'h:il!li'i!l1!O!~y;"_ 1ln W::LV.e, i:w.t~!ily~;~"3 I'll'€" [!{pp]i.r:~tiOIil '('iif :wrUii"!:! ~qgi(: is, 1 fIl~I1Wfhc1·erlt_ Y 0111 have to have a sense (Jf"·,oo;rreet~ist. ,lit :Il'ee]i~J: fUF" whali: is.l:ignt n~: is WbJ;ilit wi.·n pull yo.u. through, Tllls, isa cap:abi]i'~y bome Ol[I~. ,of' experie nee, :pe,r8:i ste[toe and iT1r1enec~.Nl~1 'h,Q'Jies ~y •

DespJliC :rigvmlJl5 (:·.1ili'i(i;1.1L5 tILl be ~R.!iU~:jj.,; iI,;l1lJ;;:: wm ;SIliU hin. an .Emul[ ~~g.;_oo iiJi;~~iQi1~in)'.! W.h,.;;~. ~hb :hij1P~II::tl3:j .Iit h 'oe'tltlOrr tJo ~Q:r.:S'id.\o::dlC; eve:Jjjt i'!!l 'rl:d1i~ II!I!'io 1I1'1i~'!il'!n. ~I ili!'II~~j~:il1i!ifl t ..... '11;"" f:~lr{,jI. hn'i' ii'iiIi;lili'if' ~ 11I~lTI1p.'rllii fO·!riP. o:nl.·ii",,:a.p.n. ·Dis· ~~ ;:,i s:itu~lio~ Vifhere the etr!ti!l'e ptn'IM€iIr:l-so:~",]ng precess goes be:)'OIi!d. l11e· :m:und.~']ogk; plane .. As st~ied bef.ore, the SO'~t1!tiJLl:fI to 3. problem often a:p:~em ·1Jl1i:umpolta.m at fHr.s~'j even nndesi[,able .. Passage o[ time' lls~lably aUows the !liOlu~iOril to assume ilts true importiilnce .... 'Y'Q1JU r!rl!intl~ gtven enQ:l1.Igh lh~_1{;:.", will :r:~i4l'I,lI,ainy ~1!rdl []';ool:y move !\Qwar'l15 a sohilli'o[k TIl!~ !5;1.!Jdi Q'f'

lmiii\emimdii:lJg' of ··:[eeling··· is OI1:1ly s,;c~llIired from 'Clraot~iCa1 {J:},::p(.i'je:~ce: it (!tllii ni!li~: be dteve~,O'ped inside the lecture ['OOW-t ''i}ihem tnB. conceptsare only irnJI~J:~:OO raiher Ihail '"'UUl C.·ON e red" ,

A :rigUu. se~ of '~~l'1i1es afn_ei1l k~ds to the jni)]MHt.y to assess wh~~ one sees. ~fyO'ur. v,rllllteS ~ue; worhgid. ~t becomes very dli.ffiC-IJJ~.t.lo :~eam '~)l) accept new Iaets, This o.f~:el~ ~I\ows, up as: Pl'e-!1fJ<!iUlilfe dluagoos!s-;, when ym1. are sure yOU! .~J1r.O'w '~\!iJ}at '~I1'll; GvtlmUJ:.iL·~ eurcorae w[l. be. Vif[I}eJJ! ~'h~:$ OO~ not rnappel1lj' ~,p.;;'VL."i1.~!!:i, ,~8i ~ql!.l:~red, Oiliid, ~i:~<C~li i:1:te 13.onTnaUy ¥o~}i;IJti[c ]'O~q.;, ~~h ,m~I~'i' eesssessmens. Y Q''''. win h:il!'l!~ to ~~.Q~!'C·h :fOf.I1.ew clues, 'Iimlt before .y,O,"l can Emi!1 the~ll yOO Dillie W dear )lOOT' he,ad of "old" O,pUril:~OIiiS. If you are 1]0( flexible, ylO:~ nl:.iLy :[aH w see the f!eatl amswer even when. ~:~: is SblflIliig you ii:'l,glM ]~] the; face.

Uyoo. ge~ Qm.~ht in [,hb. trap, 'J!I1J(I;1. have ttl :siUiW di!Jw~! - YI.~1,J! L~.!i;:: gui~:,~ to h:i!iV(;· !:Q slow 'OOW!!1 ~;Il!YWiiliY w:r~fhi&rt' J'U!iII want to or iDol: b~~: d\o ~Q; t.~[·i[b;efl[t.el.y and ~ over gT'-QIJItd ·~hr.!!t you 'n@'ffe OO~rillri'l,l\~ii he:~{']re_ l'Ihli:'l ls ·~o see l:W the ~illU!QgS t1:~at YOll ~]Jiooght were mlpJm1IU 'reaUy we~ So" and, [0 Jiust stare a1. the chart. Just '~:uve' wulh it (or a while .. Wa~c'h it '~11€: way )101Ll w~t{:.:bJ ,~, ~rne while .fi:~hil1lg" B~fooo ]un:g you,']I -. gel: ~ m'lbb[e~ a ne·w ['3ct will come

.... ~ u ,,~011 _ r ., j.j",';j; 'IJ' - ., • ., "" -L - 0""'''' - 'iFor l-b"r·"·li-~·e·Ii' .. ·,"", loI'iIll!i:l' '10'01]

tu.ong.. . .~: ma!:r' :!1{Ii~. 1(1e ~18 ... ac~: ~U:1l!l. J O'l!l !W. : . ,0· II'!;.h.l,g .~.' . '!Ln!J '.~VI:"'; ~V\!.~ J . _

may find tbat .~~ I~~bbili:i~ )'uu ~ g<;HIu.g ,tfIl['t: rnul't: i!lJl'~rr~;::''lh~ t'h~~m 'lhi;:: f:;oi,z;jj1.till 'pt:!1:'po{!e; Qf 'i;;&!!i..!!!!;!f~.!!r.l:g ~ ~i;!~I~;.t~[!;~ ..... ,!!i. ... \I!; [p:;L1;t>!!'.rn .. 'Wl!'iieJ;l i1hL'tt

'IlH'I_:[)Fi[ml~ :ytl!~ 'iha.ve arrr'uvedL You a~e no longerjusl atechnieal ,mmbs~;. Y 0'1] ,!iife ill! W:iL'!.r,rn. a~iiJ.y.s.t.

]f ~\('!tI 'Irt:n''@ .~ h~gh €'.lI;.!"'111'It:!iiti~1'1iI nf' ~ 'l.'U~rM:.1l then ¥our ,ab~tl~" 1'0 re-eognize new facts. ,ES w-esJke;rred. Your ~g{l isolates you :frum realhy _ 'Wnelll the' facb; S~OIlN ~'hat YOlJJju.M goofed. ,y~J1J ·'IIe. flQ.~' Uk,ely to' ad)mil, it \V hen ndfie llT1i::ormatIon males Y01l.1oot good, YUill 're ]mke~:y to bene e ~lt_ UFI all,y. W,ilW' raJ1laUJ's~s , ego Co:JJJle'-S in ({!If rol!lgtll treaanenr. Y QUI·IT: ~~IW4Jjy:S ibt:ing f.ulj,ECl!J; yUl!J. te ai witi)'i:!i ~U~~UII: mi~~~. , • .:\IlI iUil..jI.l)'ost whQ' liifLs ifL !big .c,~O ~D d!e.fend! i~ ~t a ~Iil'~fi<c dli8adJv,~1illtnge-

I I

I

]f yoU! knew ~nougn an:l1,)'SIilS to think, of them as; a, ,jgffi(]P', and YO-lI,r ebservntion is the same as mine, 'I dtrlk. yO'lJJ ~U agree that !amaJ.l},sts 't~d, to be :Ili!ther mooe, t and, qrlJli£t.. There are. exce:~nL<ons, IllI1t genernJly if ~hey are [].Qt,roO(K;,s.t mlflJ qr:M~e~ (JIE firsm:~ [tic WOT! seems lu ~I Lillke l~l~m th t w~y. A~ w, H as ~'k,;;;:ptl,>CiIJ'l, Am!l.IC,{l.ti:ve,. b-l.:r:t. :;:;~ptie.ml ~d ,no~ ,i;!grD.tiiS!ic~lL The::r-e, is no wa.)' to ~'j!i.!lJseo ~ y.o·l,lrr way inlo lOiJkin~ gfy~r! Clia allliLly[~:is:, certa;nly' no:t in '~Ile IOl!lg term,

[f'muode ty doe-s l!Iot ~mlle' es ..ih Q:r naturally to ),Q1!j" !l)]}e. wa:~.· ('jut 01' '~h:U5i '~mW! is t(lJ hlll{~' ~I!le ,i)lJn:Uude ill:! mO(J.e.-S-1y a'f!!yw3!J'. 1I1fiet'ie' could he certain OOQllli.ng i:ftwiSii,t:,d mental b~I.L~fimi:!l. U you, deliilJe~~i ~y assu lK; ~ n:wdiiQtl;fit}'~,;:hen you .. c~ 1s boru;t.cdl ',;r.'hcr.J. the, :;;L1iDsC'4~er!it e";II;!!IJ![g ]p.ro·v~ ~he MM.l!lysis

... ,~. l' .' 11--.". • d 'Il- Ii..

ss iIPi:'!IlJg {'O'~('t, 111 'hHrii; w9IY ynu can K~i?!PI ,gr.mmg' tmOtivillLm " uy tnt!' mceess

urutil you, !i)Vertreach 'Y{u.u:se~J a~a -'Ii!.

I w~s go'ing u, !ily '~ilt the ["iiULd;,el ana.lysis ti!LOBS, mlO~, :re·~pomQ.I~o your pe.J."SQ.uru]lty, 1},1H rt does", Jl· J.il,LS!I millI mil't! ~lt~L)' la]iJLy H 1,1i:.!So,jp .... 1.ttll::;. Itu b JVU.~ !lt4llJ iH;:·r5t)uu'~i:t.y'I' th . ...:: one .:'hiM: gen:I;I!U!!l~!,Y fedf!! it\riJ ro~Qn~ arsd !IJ.cts.. mJtiuw lbalJ1 any fa1s-e,. blown-up personaliry im-at¥'!1i; Y,ii).t1:i ego rn~y ';IT)'Ii~m'li!!_ TIle:. e f:;J lli>€: il1ilS(g"e~ are dlet1aloo SO mpidIly and cmfl,ple~el.: by t11e rnar'ker t'hflit yo-u"liE, 'lJ,o,1tnd to '00 v,e!)f di.sool!lm~oo very soon if:' you derived YQnJI :;.tayi:Flg power from ego ratheit"' trna:FI frotl] adesire to excel,

,E) Anxrletv

Wtmt1J }'(!o1!) are so sure t~')$lJl yOll. will do everything wrong, (De rtelldetl~Y is, til) feel Hke dJlihtig; :Flothing a1tt all, Oflett; Uris mthe:r t1JJmfi ~tl.lial,es~, is the real reason :yuu tinQ, it t.t$11 m.o get staned, AFlx.mely wilii!c,11l resuus from o",~r mmtvMi.olrl canlead 00' ~'i k~flili uli" (;Xq;;U~,",i) :::il~,fJJl.uniJ.l(g from 'c·~{;c:s:;;.ii ... ·;t fIJJ55iJl~55. -Y'o'u ....... m rc1abcl -rhooc· wa .... ·,c C'.om~.t~ th~~: ,.:loti- !fIo~ !~~dl rel:J!bem'lilg, 3:1id ('Iuts·e sfter m uhip'le- ~lllfelin9lte' ('nl.IIIl~",L 'Yifm wii I jump to w[M (onch~' ions· a:J:'KI. bl!JUd, all kinda '0[' rationale inso ~he ,a]l~,!t':;;i~.- TtWS:0 errors, when raads, win tend 1(11 rCUllfhm YOllIr ongm,a1luldel'estimadon of yourself, t,his wml lead to fiunher errors ~.11d E!lJlt<o' a. sei~i~sookij]g cycle.

"I· he ~~l \\';;J,],lu Itm:ak th~~ reyrCie b to '!!'ir'ork '0 .t Q,~ ,~mxi t~es Q dii~ ~mQrt~!jo, R~;w efeIj'~hi[lS you C~j:l on w~,'V'e :an::fU~!llis. 'Jhe mo~ yif111 read the ,~re~itet di~ confidence you tJu~ MJ in~o yo.ur' analysis,

Wh.en beglnning an amdysils, prepare as, ntInEi,J' dl~rrt cepies as you can, label ~Ile 'waves :~I!I (:o]oU'!:ed pe~ i!t'IJ 35 many ways as, posstble, Ilhen. 8!n1JjFl,ge tnem to :(lropetS,'{lq~[lce. 'YQIiJ wiFI,d.i:u;tlVCr Inil!! ~~ YUJ], IU'J,gtlJlli.M:: ~J[I!;] :o;::·m1~ii1LlIl.hsc lhlt:: ~q~!'c:I!11,ie iIi,ga~n and, !;lgt;l],n rnQJ."il;: ,[mil nw.ro ids~, come. to )fm~", Tn'S it~rnc: ~p~Jlm,this,,' ~y is much more p 'OOIjJ{="'!JIE' 'Milam 'm'irm'ne .1lelilt J:arirf!g',B~ ~} hllaTIill:: cn:::lili1i_

'Y O!J C4t_1iI rednce );CflJIf,W1;1\,iety ~y :rr:ec{JIgnising 'me fact 'mti.ai, aUrula ' .. sts hav,e go.n,e; 11uou,gh 1!IJ:.!2: same ~.e~tl1.g· curve :1IiFld, I~ll'!,!le.an [[Ilutde errors, ])[ is a pai'nm.ll.l~U1l1]og curve, ibl;n ju:s~ 4I!~ '[ ,i;UnJ !;.1UI1!u:JJLle~.!So u~h(;[ .. lm~1S;:: z.!iU ived,

;',"' ~- - • , , . 'II ,.:I'!ff' I" -.. f:- ,; • ~- . .I~ "

)'uUi. It' ... I"i..~ ...... tJ,. riac Ll:LFQ ........ yO'll!' :.autt~ll 00 ' '1~1,!: .. 1:~r;;!:!:!,. A p'~,E!~~ 6: l~ 1£ u::rl'~ .. :;n~~l

Ib;y :lIJ.!U?1kMi<i,J!1iJ ,o\f be-Sit ,;;(Il.....v ~r[!aJti'.(~ h01l1m-.e:r hlloWSl_ The maltilfl,g of ,ji\ Wi;l1i;ne analyst follollplp's pret~,· W~U ~h£: ssme 'prooedure; 'Df] '~e end, all oJ as ~l.ave· W pay 'QUit dues. [llleIt]i'tS. off hrilL'U~d! egos wma. lo-wered, expectadoas. However; new aJiLd hruroe~ resolve is enough co,mP.e'l1bsat~oFl fO:i this"

.

~

:

•

Olil~ '~hflflllg .'0 do wU,}f;[lj wo[k~!I1,g wit'h charts. ~,1:11 many other tasks, 'IS 1:0 4;:~]ti,yai:e "the peace of mind;" wl'lichaccowro,~ to P,QiEElC<aire "does not sep:mJ1t'e one's selffrom one's Sll:lrro.'I.llfl.'cHn,g·'" \Vhen .hat 'is doae :£;1.It:oDe:5'sII!.lIUy., 'mhe.1[ most (ltner 'fhiElg5 will follow natl!Jrn.Uy. Peace' (lof !11~lld, produces ,rtgnm, '~j.ho.ugl1ts.. R:igtLrt tlililYl!J~nl)S pMUce r.I,gil.'J: aI;[iO:IiI:S~ ~Ii:ml ri~ht 4.tI,.;li.ilUu~ produce With. 'Ii Mq;:;h VI!' ~U be ~, n"j,ai,c.ri~ i7Clti!e(:.tio.n :[0-: otfh~r',;dO see-

Thus i,s I:HiLe eppos ~I:e I'Q an:de~y and is, oomtl1l1J'ldy S..8S0,iiU~d whh e-go pro'1l1,ems" B-oredom :nncill1J" ~:lilat YOl!l ,are nOI: seeing thillfrlgs I'reshly. and ~r"Qu.lt :a1ilS!,I~J;S ls ''Vu]ne.rable_ \Vh{;11 .his occurs mere 'uS: aneed to f!!)f;u:s _yt)Ul l:uiJ.d d~ew'~lli;.';ii~ fiL,r a 'liU!'(: '~~,U& esher than at 'Eire (;hiili1~ ]ili.'C..fcf',ab]y 'Oi1 Cithc:r ~~rp.po:nth:t.s work :;llIcl~_ as '~l!IQn:J!I!lrtIrl!..irn anal,yd'!i". €'!:c,

Wl1e:tll yOI;l! am bored, SI;oP. Do SOJ]leJl,hi:liI,g eke ~nd c~M, d a day" U" !fou do no.t slap ~hef.l! Y(JfLl will become, I.]scceptible to. m~iJ1,g Q, 'big mistake, Borelil,om plus ,a b~:g rmus:i;mke; cal] lead to major losses. -roo best remedy for me na b~~l ~O'ffe:e· and, leep, or pn;,~t:'iLlpH'tbJ~1 w E~III OllICTf aspects of t'i;:~hll!k:,~~ ,~,~y:sb.,

1here. ,~re. ~S' w.ith a]~, pro: essloas, oorin,g tasks thar, howevet, must 'DG: oon~ and Jor tille· wave ,:D1I,a!l.ys:~, '~he wruM '. hlJ making a. current OOlaJysls J:1.t t'he '[I1:am[J, scenario ~ dle way to tn~ 'b~!iru.~ins of a sequenee, lhbe'dMly paUem happens to be' part 0'1" a equen(':e. SiRi(!hiIl,g tmct several months. :El becomes ,eaBJ' ~,I[!o bL':t:onu:: di!i.u1J,i1.:IIA;;:!,ll. S~)lU~L:iLn!!ito; ,i,u, ;:;.C'e>J],H:i such ~,w~.",I, Q,f tL~TJ'l(;. ]l·ut back-;trad,EF.g is esse .=":iIl to Ih:· ~:ldb.tsj'~m1i."l,t!; of tbe cJ:!ftent p~Jl~_

B.om~lom is ~Uim4l!]1:Y a s.igr:tJa1J t'ltm!~, the analyst ~s ~aikilJJg tbmtil,gs :fnf. g;r-a.nted; On 'mb~ .filfst sign of boredom, ,go tbrollgl] w~: )"0111 have dow

_I

~clo:ro:; at least twice', This is a $[lJIaill price !o:p.ay" :kilowiIng t&~lnbB pmi91ties :~or s~,ol:h will sooner '(U' :~ate'l! be great.

Fl' Impa,tienoe

Thir. i8 ;LIIlrnoo~ simil:1I' ~'O'" but !fJel ,q,i}jjre the ~9!m-e as b!l)re~!fli]T!l. ['mpsnience ,:xI1imost iii] w,ays, :-;;tem from one cause; ,0 mlde:r-fStim,tltlon off he afftOU~"Il o:D:'~'~l'ne, the an:aiI,y.s:is will take. Tlis is particelarly true ''{,~ihen. market action, has ,setu\ed inl'O a JatZy sideways cousolfdatiolil. You caFl DI~\ler 'be 'De ri1.rn:un l;.Vih at k:nuld or panern li~riU tam 'op,-

'[mJJolI!d~~{;,~ Is '~.hc :fi 1'':' ,: rcactlon a.g~ha.;;{t iii, :SGtib.Lid~, ,ilI.i:"'1d ~:!in. SOO,1i1; tum in~:o ,:ii;ltleer ~d. ft:u~~rn~iO:Il if ,a,ne j;~ !'!O( care ul.

]i is best haruiedl by allJowi.!Ii,g an ]E'ldef1llilhe time foctlle task, or by doub][I:1!g' the 3J'!lm,ed 'l:U~1I'1,e when circumstances force ~in1Je' ~I:amrnng.l!, Ca-lil also be preveated Ily scalllFl,g down me. scope o:n' whfaJ: one W:!l[US no aecom:plis~n. 'OvemU guiilJs, ml!J:£l be scai~oo down iu ~1I!1:I!J)l1!.i;:!!IJ,1,;e, w'hU~I, ,~I1IlLllOdiialc: ~Q4!iI~, nrll.l;S;t be scaled trp"

IP'Art: V··':'II

~ U .1

,A 'Typ,icalllEllliio'lt Wa've Tradin'gl Plain

Th,(J'I",[J'r; a p.'lic¢ jb.r tV'Q n,1:~it.'h (ll'lYJ!'}J,q~"'. a. .rwir", /I,lj,," tlM'l m\ti!'('h !],~:t!'f'.dJ:

Ai!'iilli .in ,c()t1'11,JacnrJ' i'"g~tJf(l~tCe. we"ve ww~' the w~'ir.lwIM seed.

iEoor'S ii~ trarl.1tng occur due '~n ,ffij Vru-i.ely ,0:[ '~aiSan&~ '~I!d '~ih~ :rnQ.~~:

o· . ,Iii, I!I.... ,,r,' '~i ' .' r '. il~ 1':,,' ... 'I,.~,:" , • ..:11 . ., :iL,~ .'. '.' - __ ,~. . .~.' .

.ornm-R C'3 uses or ~li:'M_111:g ulSHS'Lers eM ~ ~IDi:lC€UI itO h.u>ee caf'"",.lna~ 8m 8"

[!;anldy (J!fO'b.tI1ttlf!. g.~':r3'l!.d;, m,uS: itrR.[.ii.i'-ance'"

'IF,!!'!!Q- !£:In ,aF ~- • ..;~n~e is 11.:1.""" fo=.(]""""'+~1;' "'''",,'' '''''''''L'i."..;I~''I''''': ,i: ...... """"~ ... .,,~

• _ " ~~ _ _ _ _ ~~ ~1Iii 'ir~,'IJo!~liil,!t'J.~ ~~ii£ ..liiiliV~ Ui.;-L.r oI;Io~ .J;liiiiivi,~i."_~!IJ,

'vo~i:iIti~:uty il1l, the fore,;, 'niI:rlrkeN 'n&o:t ~ail-l:"a11 irs ~lrI~l "if"n:li:lert:!t '~vhn rrr,p-';:'~'lri'iiI€ill hl :p05~S ~he inshie track on mark~l: nmVGments~ arnd ~pe¢u~a;t,on:!' V!.rhn ~nted tn wm moe markeno goo tooif wary beifme ~tis. ready,. did. oot ~urv]ve-thris fsr, 'mere are not enolIl_gln, 01: Uie cocky tradeJfc$ lett to make ,a, miMik, on 1I1ecaSf(J,a]~y chart,

OJJJ tle other hand, the 'If.I:('ide--;nr.~,o:flJ:~ ~:ntl.o.f ~JooG\d,''iv:!l::tE!$ tl!Ind, \liI~n~~ lite attl epMemic willlil '~h.e 'rise anrll fiil~1 ,of P,J:moe;s, ]n tile cu:~y rnaffiet$"

/>: .. " '=' J r~t;" '''''''~.,- ,.,."""r-, ~§

TOOT€: is no way to 5mootbJ the swiings eJl!cept 'b~' ,dban:sing '~he Vi.ray people 'thril1lk, Al1IrltAat is, <':IillI e'V£D mere w:ffl{:l!lilt :pliOpOdl~Q;g than e1i1ni[!;~drng greed in'~ rn!~~tp~ace.,

TIle !Sin of i_gnCllt'anc,e is dle: mOOlt :pe:i'VHcS:U"Ie elf i:i1'LG :16i" W:u~h tn~ Mt(flJ.lrnt of mooey being shiflod iirrollnd at the s~.ig\hrt,e8~: ~roe:pltb;nl of imJ~nd~[l],g, m~~, C~l~'@j ,ih fi~t ij[ireas~tI!~bl~ 'ttO presame t'hatt :players :ilnvo:lved ~fi '~ibri~, z(tI~O'-s:~mt ,ga-m-e acltlla[ly l[l~dterMand the m.~hmics olfpr..oce durng;e- Hum ~fue moans of ·vk:thilil'$ wbo were zerJ!)+-;5l!J!nuned. :~m their tmd~DJg accw(}~, at some ]'O'~m:]1l! [he s:rume is acwal]Y 00 lill~ nse, SOo enets T'l.m1p~,e.d to say th.at iglii.omnct:- of IiiJ)iltl'koc.<t :tlil!cC:~anics, ls endemic :Un, the. :m~rket p:~~ce-

nt~s :~i:lSt "r;.in ,is!!1ll£: 'Il1:UlJt no'body needs to ~iI!rFJrer from,_ :Ev:en if rhe CWIII~, of price c:h3rnge 3r-e not yet :rl!lHy lImderstood (Il!oimoclfy knows e:tilct]y wb~ people 'OecJk!e to buy OJ sell em masse aD' 8, 'pO~nlJt ln time), 'it 'is, enotilg'n lID lkL1o-w w.h:ru~ does c!!tot cause prices to ttlilC'~U:i:l.te. For lnstaritOGj too '~!i!'Ws of 1I,,;a!J1JJ:st; ,tlmJ ,dfl!'-I;;L illJi Lh,~ :s'I,;k::'ln;~ 1Ll'.f ,p'by~~t;,li. dILl' nm: ,i:i!ppiy ~!D! '~he: Ia['g,e~y :Pf;y,c:bolog.:cLll ,pb.c.n,o:m.cnoo of price, .::h;;:m~. In i;liIizyt1..:.~r, price f1i'i'lT"cIT~c:fibs, ~if.;:o fiij)ct wholly i[Hii'i(!(rrm :ilfii ~ 11 dG'gn:-.e~, of poss iME" lnte!r1'nds ~1w.eE'n prlee ,ob,ilIF.1,g~~, the Oclob::~r :~.9&1 :Sl'OCll\:: 'm~:d • ret craJ.llh drove th:~s paintul lesson bOOle.

II a ['001 I:G, WI))f.i:.i!i!J~e, .Il ]8 not '0[" ,00Uf ~,rrlmg: rnt:p0I'Hmce to Krt!o-w 'e;\;ilI.cl~y '~he: wfr.y~ S !i'IDd, '';dd1er:rjor:e/.s iiJJS l'milS ;;:.J~ ~'h~ b~l-'..:; U'I,U]I 'fulclliud ,ii, lli ~Ifl,de<r,s.tood~ n'tlis :~8 e:±iFd.aJ]]y tru.e' ,(i,f~h~ El.ll.{!!~jt. W':Ilve !P'r1ndple. b, Mllffi(!ell; '10 'I{rniOW '~h,i:iIt ~Jne ,Prin.e],pie is based on the ])ffi_P()5:h1(!1tl i'h:!!'I' .'h~ ~'n::nlJ~~, 1~ comprised of peO'p~,~~, ~ld dun p~op~e 'w~~ never C:ha'ngt\ "f'iIlGy·w,iU 'millc~: '~n similar 8i'~,~JtiQn ~.n loo :same miil1t1l11.er over and firer a:gain_

The EJJl.jQ'tt W::l'."'" :P:r.':r..oip!e, to Illy' :k."liO'w!edS'e, was ~~ ~!!:'!!;~. to -'~fiHcii1i'ly reCll7Igmil7;8; tln.::iI~ ml::rrke.1' mech:uili.c, do! no.t,calllNe c'oarnges in market diree~:toi1l; only cb)altle~ L!OJ pwcr.ology do. 'Vl.iJ~t R.N" EUiQ\ttt 'ha~ dlone. is to 'f$,lsilidisJh nOmUlrtLv·e behavior pa~tern$ from wh~.cb. !)_paiifi,c rules can be dleclarred;.and .hom these ules ~r~d .g.U1:idel:Fnes and d,esc:ri[n:loo o["lendenm cies ean II)e .I![!]ff@~dI, Spec.ific· i1IJi:a~kel ,~ctiol1l. can ilhen 00 uerived frum .:h~e 1~.f~J·~~(;.ea.

G~v·e:f! the '~l1g'hjly serualizOOJ structure of the 11!'l!O de I,. a $!tud.}r ij)IJfEI~:iij}.tt W,av~ PdndpJe wjU ~ra~[i] enem assess the pr{)bablli~ md! freqlIlency of B. fllltl!lre event, S U~·UlaJtiom5· whJch an OO~tn~ impossihle under 'Dhe v ~riQ'IlISi f!,des W'idl gltlid}eline.s are elir~nl(hatea. i~om COO::;ulE.1',atioo, Ijhereby ]imirming the po.s:sible e'!looru~:MH.c:;:s If~ • .r~it:£ ~m~ .v ~!!)~Jtz; wid)]. RoOO.i.'l.R. Prechter once ~i.kO::fiI.~d. ith¢. kJl~:F"i,.'le..dJg{1l (p~: thee SUi!ktt W:a'l,l'eo Pr;iCil.ciplc '~)l) tIl~ pOS::£.e;9:.tien. iQiJ a 'road map. \Viitlii it, one cHii'll11aik@· 3 fe.\W ~dlI!JCltiom~.lhat wi'llldentlify. t'he 'most :Iikely 1JI,aJth 'maJt a ~U:S' wiU taks (e'1\~n if one has IilO'~ made the nip 'befQte)· 'ti:ln.:o~ e~.imioo~i~llg 99' peroenrtt fJf o~her possible routes aeross uapaved lands,.

U ShOfIJJldI im]]1Jedi[l.[e.,~y Ilnet~me ijjtJvwu;s lhat ~he use oJ E:1 . .UiOmll Wave Pdm::ji'n~ i~ 1101 i:1 j.~~e{:h~liC!ili~ ~pp£oiii~b D.o ub~ m~rr1ke.~. ph:l.ce;. U uS ail,a.pwroac.'Ilt in '","'hkh pl'c.babUily r.JI.p~d~y be>;;!iQifi'Hl!S the 'c~lch~~ .. erd: ~! is ,a metli!oo ,!!,!!, ... :vh~0:n 1"he terms ~'j~·,~,di(,~I·.nJf ::.rnr'lfm~'a:wiJII'J become ·i rrelev3IitD:, even unwelcomed ... One 0000 leems 1:0 replace tJn.ese termlS wittil the word anticipate,.

Any Hni:IJlysJs. de'l'~.v,ed by aIp-p'l katio:n of ih :PI!'~fiC up,les wiI11~~~wa~rs Jrnply a ["Qfei!,;:asl. or prntJ .. il,;·llon" Du.!]' !J. .it:L,!i.!l~ implf£,cl: ilUJlI.h ,EEltllJl ,~.pi.it.:ij,. W Ulli!; the \V ~Ifire Prin;;;:iJpk :~:!i :probably too Iltloot effective 'ro'I"OCU~f.Ln:g wo~ 4'1,!'!lil~j;~le" do not use ,it to ifmC"~t.QrtQ PfGdlic't. u~· ltonly to esr,;;rtb1J~sh ta .. rgets 'Witb 'hi,g't~ :plidbabUiry of w;'1l ievement, 'Of t'o'establis.h AHemal~.ve courses ,ifst!!bse.q[Ue:.T'!t 'market action nallifles the QrighnaJJ ot.Dectht~"

'lill!i~ m::'!y flh~fI{lfliil1lt tl~~ uJ1l~r.'i' 3'rt: ~!I'1inlrilTi~ II'M' rUg-l:d. allWh]te answers ro the fQru(~ mark.ets; CJIu~Jtm.ml8. 'But, it vs ,a facet 0'1:' life tbat Jl:10$<t [Jrre.dtction-lS- ,ifild fu~eC:li&ts woo desltilledJ tOo fail: ~t is: S'iP1!ply irmn'possib'le, to pinPO]1tl!t IDe confluence 0'[ specific •. ime and price elem~Ilits. at. any :purl' of' ,~, market rnoverneat. ~fhe best \\'3,,, '[0 L.liSG' 'fIe wave p,r.irl1lcm,:pie is to :tK:oep~, Dbm ' fi!iJl;;t .. :P,~1ul!I.h.il", Jor nh,~; '1;]i;!!,;t!lIL1:e,'1 .~ ~jf eUOfS o.f jJ!,cni.goC1'1.lC.m. ;hen :5:I;.ibscqllcntly dC::J!l ", ... ith. 'f!~.e. ~.lJl.~e.t'n::!:ti v ee to- prod.I,1~'" w:innIng '!ltrnn:egiell. 'T1he,re ·!U~ 'mo g'IIdJ'{JJfU:!:~~_~ in toe forex itIia'l'ke~. there are only ,",~t:r.ybe~s'.

]:f one is to deriv'~ maximam be,nefiI~ ffm1il this m.-etll!ld~, 000 has to learn ~a accept ~~: :ror. \1i,lhat it is ,fl tool to !pl"ovia,e '~!he mput :!!IeCeS$M'y to q]u~~ifl' lillB d~vee of 'ujsk 'Of degree of reward iIlllht:: l;;,ulL1:eJJll illi;':!iTkL:sIlI ucture, [t 1$0 .i!l.m a rt!I..ilIg,ic.a!l phi[QSophCtT'.:i- sro:i'i~; ~.t does :H6t UU:'.t\ base ideas =ot(l' .gold.

To a c·e,nai[) degloo; 'm~s, q iUlIHifie art:ton p~oce5~ - lets call ~Jt "'-UroODey mana,gerlllent;·- is more :irrm])Ortantu, ~~lim the anaiIYS']5: pan of'd:Le tandem. To US-e an old] ml8~,Og)'. mlall}'s~s. is the coor lO, 'flillblll.Lous riches, wh.ille .money rnam:l!.ge:!1'1I.e.I1I.t. ~s; ~h.;;:: ih...;;::y lL.im!. Up~.1~ tbt:lJl dh,_D~,

'T'be :jISt ·rerlnlii['@flf1.ot.int of H'!'lney m mn~gelii1enrtJ' 1:.;;. ,:~ hatl;nl! [,'I an -a writl:en. weH-alla]yzedi. ;$l,(I'p~by-step !p-roc,e,ss., IilO'~ a. set ©of va~~l!I.e ~nr~ttQJl1S kept lin yOL1rF head, This: plen must nO"~ ooty provide for. e-rJi~erJng trades; ,it must aJSQ :provide cOO!tioge1Ucy ,For t3Jkin,g losses Hnt:l acceptmg j)liofillS"

r'll,!i~ ill Lh~lI> Y'HAY, A L[~Jm,~. pllll~ .... ,'lih1,..ut 411· ~'1':"L-, Ibi of Jj;liijtE.al~ I,Q.{lo~::; :shurt ,ilM m.al'dmiz;iil!lt'l; protUJt potential is Uke '~oa__ldiDg :;3i,C'S,I[' w:itihOtliit.bE'::iJffiSi :!l1Jl4'1 ,~a,1Blh~'Jt. YOI!J 'wi]~ certa1n[y 'be ~b£e to, depart, bu~ it is d\t;:U.lllJDfilIIl if Y(I(!J. win .8!Fi'U,'IlG al y'om' (tesmlluiitio'll. The WOl'S't. of COUt'S0, Js iIlot kav.mg a ~,:m.irlg pbitl at alIl ]ts]Ure ooardfii1l:E; a car wiHilnLlf~' a sL'e.e:rnng 'whool. u is dO'IJ'fin'~[ if

11][ dmwm~ up· a, [radin~ plan, ilms, s-pirrirl sohou]d, be 'w'har~ Robert :Be,ckitlw oace said: "We· are not try,ing to beas the market, We ru·e u'YID,g to jom it" nle,~ are subne :~nll]J1ic~t~OOtS m BeckmEUb.~ plea The objective $1l(]Il.I~tI. 100 tess in b0~n,g ":n.grrt" IYm miOO'~ :u,~. be.ing "SIl.lOC~SS.rlLl.l··,. In oth,er WUI !.lI~-, !.lI1I) l1uU il:l!i~l!l i;lIL g.l;;lillin.~ ;H '~uJ!E~l ··,li'lUf,,",~;H~l·· rm ~~u.iIMY~ujj,l!l~ 1.t':i1lru[~!S~ :R:wdt~r, aim a~ maL1dn;g IIilQ'I11e>y 'on. '~ tnile, eoVeIl w:h.;m fu~ fo~C'a!:it. w;:u::. WlIOliIg_

There is nOI OO:ilh11dm~ti~ofb. involved here, hom the s:tandp'oint of SUiott Hila,~y&is. Ma~t. IOJ ~'~Ie dm.e, the probabm~y 11j,:f :Hke[.y ('!oC!.I!n:e:Fire a,re so' evenly dig~llif1ured tlla~ fav<or.ing (ute wena:n_{D ~)Ve,T ,Ottile-~s becomes a mi;Lt~¢.r ~:Yff preference, ]t is 'onl,,.. ~t ~ti;lm tiru!e~ in ~'he m~~.: de~krp'men~; th~.Jt reUabJe. p~ise, :projecl:iO'tlS C'~R be. :millide, Ar. most times, it is m'lly fKL nt-Ie til) a s s !1;~ '~hart ibe'irnlil!·IOH.8 'i ~ plie'ferabl\e ~o hein ~ shnrt, or vice versa, \\rid~. ~tiiC!U!Iij)liJS 'p'l,ann.~ng. tHat :unrntilJiadon lS IliSIli8UY. enough to succeed :nn tbem·8!r'ket place,

..

I Very Shon le,rm, WI,ve Scheme J

1 ~ 3, ,5 =(§) ,~

:fi

-- ti(;k--hy·Ud ,PrJQ~ Clrm"l'

-- 1 O-,~ni~:J~N .Prici3 Ci:rnrl.'

@

(~)

;; 1.

3

S.

@I

4

T~ T~·;ini~l<I~ ., •• ,.~ .... , •• ,., ,.,.,.; ",., •• "., r~.);jij~: ,SQalper I

c

®

_

iechnlcal ~po:rt: ,_., .... , •• , •• ,., , ... :,., ,.", ,.,' Fk!af.,1m9 II!;;k~ti:di; ml)'rnBni!JFli1 ani;!I~,~ 1$ 0ss_m.a1

s

© 2 4

-, ~

-

©

:2

I" III :, V
.5:
~ 12 o

T~.oo Tiedi!!lil3i.!e: -. "." ....... "."" •. ~ ... e, ...... lPool~ICIfi$,ta'ke!i'~ e:apture m'e - rum [01 1: % pdQe m:Q1ffllilien~

T\ilIrc~J 1~ada 'lJM,*","fr;i!!fiftla,: __ '"' , .... e ...... _, __ ._, '1 - 9- d'_&~S,

Ti3e1ii. ica !:u,ppott~ ... __ ._. __ . __ ..... _ ... _. __ ._. __ . __ .-. T'IErk-!!;!;rti¢k ,;:md 1 Q mir.ut(j, i'fiOi'i'l~'wm i1!.f1ial~I:9:' or timl'ntl of 'crad'e

i n i~l aJ! 00 a.ti1C11:er mfi n i;U I (I F1. Hoe u r1 ~ ,:!In d1 dRitj' ITlf.J.Fflen:t\m ~g~fg f-o.:I' d9d~IDi'I Sllj:lpG'rt.

[ Medlh,lIrii1 Te,rm Wave :Soheme i~

-- flo:~~ it~y .Prl,i::e: C~'rt

-- Thily' Pnct Cfi~rl.

18· s;

III v

b

I I I

I'

SirsJe.gio aM ~!fimem: :pO!li~ion!l: to !t-apW~e 'mIIFiIFfiUni 5 % ~ri'~, i'i1IO;,<8 f:fI "l11Jt. 1M [j gil Ii 9 :i;1r.a1_\;1 g! es·

l~pical 'iIade '~Ir:na"{rnme: .,._._,.,_._,._~_._", __ . :3 ~ak·- 1 mOOltlh .1

. lE!t::ifmOC..al t?lU~p{lIi!~ ,_ ..•. _~ ..... "..... .... ..... .... ,C:o!ii!!iiOOD: iIc!'l.g !am momeAhn

': 'E!S9fjrtliai in ~Ii to S!JpjX!lil Wa""·€!1 1M~1!f'~' Eie:.HaJi1i! 131' .s.o.cei!3I:a1ing1 :SlXied Qr ~Manoe· !n ode4e~orru!no

1 I) and :20, ,d'a,Y!;,~OOhfl);;"1h:i ,lnaLySi:;L

i I

I

I _

~ ,/\ V\ ] \\

= "

II I

s C

CD~@

-- DlIl!lJ P1'ic~ ChClirt

-- Wcddy,Pri:e C/,[fIn'

m-

-

v

v 1

III

A

c

@

u

[V

@

C

IV

C

@I

v

,@

Tr "f.,.., i' .... ' "" " F- ".d - • c c 1=1' 1'''''-

,;;tU6 OOnfbql;Je,: _._ ... _,',-, .. ,',,',-,,"'_._._.,._._,,- Ildn[Ji;I~Lo;!I" ,IFfI{es:Imelil'l pi)S LNif'l$

or ~;;jJ0Ii •• ~ .:;t;.9e:t stl",;,lagla!il ~~~ lEi' eapture a ilIi'Ilniii'lil,lf.il11 ~ ~ pfioo i"Ifi~an~

'j __ 'j g ...... ...,. ,.r -'r " ,-- '. "" _ i::! , """"'~) 'I ,'"

W ca. ~rl!!olU8' L!mil!! .. Iralilil~ .•• , __ ,_, •.. _, ,.,.,.,~." ..:i!" '" iT!O:I~U'"" or ~r

If"nr-,l!i!iIM! 'rup.~rt:, _ .. ,._ ........ _ .. _. __ ._ ..... _ ..... __ . (:oi"llijnl.l~ fClIiQ "terl'l1i fflamfiii:l!,ii'!l'!l ~aJ;r~.

IV

© ,'I ll~; nl

ASlCert~ from the preceedl~l1Ig 'w,ii'l,ve oom1i~: ~h8Jt a, five-wave sequence ls hig;hly pr'ooa])be f[oolIDl Poilllt (D (see 'r~'ad:e No . .I}" :P,~:feru'b['y l' '[h~ '-,I - - -'too fL'i3-wavGi rnov~ ~ib!l)urd, be 'l'iam, Of;D, L~Cfe.rF' ~rte[UI 1IiIa-fr could be e~jper;: - , 'V - , -, - - -, - - - - - r - - - - - -- ,e; - ,r - - - - - - -

oorn,pt.i~ aU.v@, W:lliV{l:S ~.tSG:lt ]~li iI1hts ~de9~, stnianon, 'Uite-lllO'!,l',e from ~o1m o tu iPulillT (~elli.li~:UillJll'Un ,Ij.rd~~ nil ~w;i!l'~'lj ::'~I!J!,t':IIl!i::"') ~J!ooltl ~'~JtUlIP~ki~ Lh~ 1 ~l Wa,ve o['dle la!1.<geo-~' :p;:3!~f,e-r:1l (~~e, Short- 'f'eo-m. TF'i:itdl~~ng P~M}. ~]OW't';VGii:' ~ if iIll '1I:1Ii1i8Q: Zi:gl.I1!,B, or any mhelJ" deep correction ~8, e);.,pect,oo :rmrn the w:ti.v,e count. 'nne Trad~i1i;g lP~afli may be :i.1ictiva1-oo, Just mal'e ~t a pomtt ~Q 'uememlbef'~n,M

'10. ., I "[' , d' L!..'

the po~illt~8 rnOV0rnf;l1Itts aT€: , unne - , m tn~;s. C[[Ise"

D~"'tCJe ]'tliUf ~Il'ad~ng ca:pila:~ into :1.0 ,equ,al units, ,~rYOli ,::11[@ nadiLlJ,g, em C(l;S/r. lliiML::..lf'_Y!D'!Jl are- '~~dJing 00 rn~cg1f!i 'h~:');i:s,. dl .... :Lde yOUi!:" r'h.k '~,pi~[8111n,'NJ' ] ~ I,];q.~ru units, j'-!!sJI: '~he same, TI1e, inre!1iU-on 'here '~s 'ro pfe!'l.r~rn~'ilb;e ~~':frDnll riJS'k~i!lJg:his. elildre Slake i~~ ~i1Iy one trade, This, also ensures '~8Jt -nfiletuade~ will $univ~ e:no,t$, ,~Il jiudgem.e:ntt ~ady ill tb~ ~rading ,~~~~'doo~ ~nd, wm ha,ve'rue wh.~l'¢withaU to oanti[)J]jie '~ih~ trading P:~M1i'I_

The neminal value ['ep;resen-~:ed, by 'niile 1eve'[,aged,'c:~~~al. 'is, iEFe'levO:llrru: to th¢ o ... er-all scheme ,ofth~s money ~lilml~g-c,mCrit sy .J~Jj.1Jl, If yV1i,!l arc '~hfllg :!I!~~¢ pO~~.tl,1J't1!~ .001 '~1'!1' basis oriT-ailing U.~i"!i {iE :in IDe' ease af a b~!IIl fQ~'X trader], iiIre 'liJli:IX.ulIll'lI!I:m netcxposure oooorr.tmiil.eillderl ~IUJ1]£: trradling :P~ffi1 s'h.ouM correspoad to ,abou~ 'lwo~~'hi'~s of yOll[' ~:Uli!J!ut_

,!:':lill:tiU Y i' tms '~y.p waIIt1IH,(~'~~ '!']',aOlJlmg PUn-it, In,a:ytle usee "NU]:li ,~l1ty 0']" 'nJf!e four wave ::;{:heme:s rne.lli:LOO}sd ~ the vm'y'~s'h,w~, term, .lllt:; ::i~U_JJ·I,-t't::i.mi, the :mcd!~!Jm-it~, ilmdi lh,c, ~,(m.g-'~rnl,w.l4"'~ ~~rnJ;:;$- The taetles w'O't};t 'vuf)' :si,ij1;::r[~fl.Ct!!J[Idl'~' O1l[y t'ne time b iJ.lI]Z'OU'lS offhe '~iiJmii'li"iended n,'!IarH~~ w:j,U iii ff~f. F'ii_lT ex~.pl,e; the time ahr,m,~e~, H'Qrui f'O~nt ij to Poiint ']' in nOte Ve'n' ShQl'lb Te1'Jlili

-

- -.~ . '-. ~ . . ~ -'.

,FiE! ~1"'8 And}sl:

'W,Elve SC:heme; migtitlt 'be as, shon as, 18 hO!JItrS. On the [liner ,~jflliLdl, it 1iJ]ij!;'tu t~da~ :aU (Jfj or ~ nloruhcS :[Q'r' the marke.rt ~o' ~n.t!v,el from, 'P,051l1: 0 ro Point T on '~, Lm,g ']eoo 'W,aV'la Scheme,

Th~ 5~.t;-~ '~Jd' l~l~ ,P!~,1,,;r;;:; i;lwh~~, w,n~ ([If 'l,iUUI!,'ij,;;:i, val,), [,!.UUI!L ;a'Jle W.iiI,¥~ !lch!Mil.e ee the ae}l;JI:" It itilm trull}e :jr'Ol"[l 75 te 125 p(.ii~Us i!lJ! the thik-by-tilck dlarrl 'to 200 :pfenn_l2s in ~be Lons Term USDfDEM chan. Amy choice cf ~rnd!ing 'h(lri1.(m, if 9, d)'tolce ~;s .av9il~'bl~~ 'will cl~~nd i::1l[\~]y an ~In~ capacity Qf~e'wmutotake :Ioo$e,~" The ~hQI't'erlJhe w8i¥Ell :scnem,e be~[lJg :M,~[()w-OO, ,tile. sm;;IJUe:r t~.e -ri$-ki~ 'terms ,offa:ce v8Jl.~e, ln pe·rce:ntage 'lemas h!lJ'Wev'e[\ fue '~isl

~ -

,~I1t. tradm,g :~I1t, ae co roan ce W1~Jl [be V,e:ry Shon Term W,a~e- i5e'liJeme i~lot!lld,

eqj_II;I;m.'~ llh-e ri:sik i~l10rol1l.t ~1l ihe, Latl,g, 'rem::. -Sch,em0.

All, nhoo trades deserlbed ~[JjJ the Typic~~, !Elliott 'fr,mm.~ffiI;g :P~an foUo'i,¥ a ,c~l'1ain pattern, I1aJllleUy: l} ill!]tiardiolJJ ef uade. 2) ~ettill!g,~uT~ of st0fl' ~os:s ~,eve~s,t:3) case-by-case .addit~,on to'ed£t~[IJ,g posklon, ,~} provlslonfor pMil~j~~, p[Ofit.~itakiD!g, :51) ,c::n.s!i'-'~,i'-ca:~ '~~nSI:'l:ltemen~: ofpos.itIM, aad 6) termil1l,:Mioo ofuad.e-

@

I Tra,de 1_"_0,.,1 .. Trading thee1,s! Wavle

M'a};llm-um lI1iu nnl)Br

'I)f tlfllb fur. r'F~'iFt9i pltru1;

Units ooliilUtiiUeCl ill 'T ace No" ~ :' 3

IJI-li~ ~rilai'lliflgl aftl:elf i'J'a.d!i:i: 1

fii\ \,g.J

/\

.

.

®

@

[

-

- PIliW;t'~'!I1I~ pr-,(}/U ,~/"~(:g:

Scl'l ,2 ~mY\S;' ,~roi~ l U:t1i1 i~ aTM. ~w (l) '~ci:j'el'ildili-'_

©

_ I

4

-

4: a,

_ Poi:j 0

'\

..... - .' ,- ....... ,

~q;I"'-'--: '~~"""~ L I ~~,.

, ~

" - - - ~ ~ ~ ::::-L. - - 1~:r.fill1tf,l'ltPiI, ill! itMr1;:!'~

Z\\ ,!l~ 50 ~o ,61_8' pt!IIup,rJ rdmceJtl-.l'1irJ Of Yfuw 1 ~ RuJl3 rmi1-S

\"" - - --,~'~'- - - S~o<pfo5$! ;~,R~m (jfT7!1de 1:

\, If Wi2~ 2}al1(S ~~lotq p.o~ltr. OJ SiJJ ~ milt:!!

[I

~t!idIA 'N' A l'

II: [I g, :;~ .. V.I.

I} A. s.harp raU,. Ul"iIllia~.~Y '~akeSl off :ffirom a, pivetal juncture nlre p\'o:uni ft U'iPQo11. ~~jrac,~me~l ~f'SI) 't'o' >6:1.8 fie"ep~: ~ftba!t l1'aU,:~I'" b~y' J Ulmijts., PLa}il!~ 91 ,s:lo:1l1os~n:liIe:rse ~J\dlN just 91 tf~w [p'ilJilElils bfl,'lolW t~m I,GV~ru af P,'O~ill1t. Um

:2) The IC'¥GtSC O;r.dC'f' cans .for :=;ak. of:5 units 'but not rno:~c.., 'ill',hc :plilTpf,tW of rhe li!e~' short :poshi,('jJ! i,!';, ~o try '~'O recover ~JJ, or emj)'lJ!~h o:f~he losses from ~he 'IO!l:g tmd!e S~ as to '~)f!~VeTIt the c~~itaJl, from re~n.g, impaired, A hlgse~' stake on .he downside is nnjiust]fiedJ at Ihis poi['i~,

,3) R"(im0lllilJ~ :yOllif affilaJysis inthca~.@dI, th~t ~o:unt 0 :us :prooolJ[y aJ '~'!,;'ot'aJl ,puiiil~; If the aJl;~.l_y sls w~~ w. (JllIg. ]J~ IJlrol~lJ1y '!;'~,Jl]'!iiI i!~ ju~nUlyiu,g 'pJ,')ant 0 M ,~~, ~f:!d of W'a ... ~ :5 :Un t]ile I?DI$vi!i)1I!is ETeqruetllce. If ~ 'n1Jist,ak~ was indeed made, t.lileoddi!;, are that lP\f1ii'n~ 0 'il!~ ,11m er .. d:in,g,[loiirrM' 'for m~if'I fif W ave 3 snd theref~ tbe· ,aU' from Poj~ji~, 0 'is 'Jj)I'aif[ o1f'min.or \Vave' 4. The dow.n.s:tde profit :pot,e:nlia'~, namely minor \Va.ve ,), is tiILerefQ,re ~:imU.edJ and, t5hrru'~d, 'be traded ~,~ such. In 'dil]~ i5ituatiOfiL, ~~Qg ne,t short of 2, units fl!JU'ill~l 'me ,e~pr-e$~ ott:j,ecu ve '01: '~,e teverse ome,r,~ W,~ljd:~ ls to ~roup losses J[IIOI[J) TI[',ade- No, :I.. ci'!lImhl'lg ,~I!l, ;i!J ,p.-o:fit .rifUi.'NI l.iI,lt'= reverse trade is weleeme, 'blJ1t: fiC~: o:f rCi,.'erridin,g ,i:npcrlnnce.

4,) Wh:e~, (he, ~lIHWU~~, ~fll~:Jm '~jint 10' tiM ~(!fml!).h!tedJ ,ii, fllil'~",wai~C se,tre.llci;; thl€reby 'ttt~iJ!J~ting:'W~ve.f.ID as wd~, :Jt'fJll ~nits. Leave 011e ul1ij~: 1001 ln case a,'IO\'\I-'j)robabjUty ej,'ten~~(;ocn OOC!il1'S ail' tnL~ :pltillse ..

,11;;: p:D\lJoobm~.y !for ru! .P~ 0:[ WH,"'~ jI 'nUL] 00 t;ai'l:·llIlan.~!J ~ ]a!kmg, rne pri.o0 .d:Wfr~~oo 'b0t.w~fil ~h,e :p0a!k oJ W?li'!fe, J and! p:q~~t {II~ t.bC";Q mui~f:~p:~yiD~ it by' tt~ 'fi!Ht:i, t161 S '~d, ~lDl,B: th,e 'product to [h,e t'eTIill~,atioo of 'W,ave, 4. 'Le,ts caM this pr~, '~1he F iAt.~: MeasuJ'm""Jcnt MeihlAd. Refer 10 Part ]V lurr' ether methods, on ]nnw' to p:~rl~c~, ~n{J~.[i,g: :~:m:m~:s for Jilb W~V{1S"

U nitcS '~FOI!Jij ihad.t!, No., 1 ~ 11

lI~'!i l~ li;i(') rnrni L ~1;N;i ir~

'It,adeINiaL :2::' ,ifij

"fl',ad'e IMCi :2A: 'Ul

1IJfl1IS, ~Elma!ll1Iln~1 aJu~w 'Tirades 3

~ . \8J

S

1'6\ ~

,iPari;{~1 F1'fJf,ill' t~'kmg! $,~~r, i ~~irir~,;' l~fi';ing.3 mtfF~ ftf: ~st::' ~, ® '"'ex;!'e.N'd.s'"

Tf.lil.1'C N:O,. ;1.1.;-

CrlH~~' :fJ1lrJU, !'11~ ii+.I~ ;i1l~~1li' ft1Mif

'Wi!i'f,.~ @gq~~~: UI't;· ~1Jylr>lnfJ' Po!l'i'n~',Q lo'@. a~ ,4· tl:~f.~,rZi' .h!i!~~ ~,i:~i:rili. i,iM_ riif tl:r\jj'~:) li!l"!'~. :tOJ

c

@

,

1

,

, __ ~ Po,hH W'

,Midw,tiy .s1'OJfptt'(Jlit Of :r~"e NLi'. L

if lne r.>i\'I'rkL'-J f{iJ~If'r~tj filM' tntrt!e!l ~r,k M'[IU'J tni'!' p.eak at 'WfI~ I, ,&;1r ti' ~~~~f:~;

©-I

,

2 4

I .

I I '"";.

_,'iiiiiiiiiooo

At .'10 f~ 6::1 ·S.li'e~ ~~i. ,of ~U!I' (D ;RlJ!ll,tl: ~~1-~it~, 'Tii.1If41' J'mrf~~~.!' ,of iriIltlls lang; 16 (S "", l If.t.I.if. from ~rmd.e',Ji;ID.1)

Point 0

J.... = ~,,~ -. i'r:f:i'~~l S'opliliiss;:

\ ,~ver-;si: of 'rrnJe' z~ 5cl~, ,10 :ri~~~~'S

.~. ~.

~,

II

~ I 1

I I I ~ I I

I~

u Wilen \Y;ave ~ bas irlE!tl1tcedl ~all .s1 .. 8 P~";Cl1lJt .m" 'W~\fe' ill" lblrJY ~. iQln'tlJ·. 'J ne pen Imsul:nofi IS now a tota~ of 6 It[uitS;lorng. Since 100 W~'!{i~..... .;:IJ.JfIC g.t!;n~ill!ll iy HI!:. I) L1Xil [1J'we~-r1U I phase in !any :five wave ~lJ,J!e[f1;Ce, one C~n choose tg, be more !,l,ggrcSSi:'ifil;: ijlit tbia point, An{lii~ I~,L" lie,;;,: 001 for tC"i ~tJlfi dp'1I1r P..::1. 'mlhL time I1)I1Iifii'PS fwnm the f UQ' E!'l.f.r ·cib>s'i;!,["'i!a~ ~i(lll: .Iii minon :fm''ile-W,I1I,'i;,lt: S~{lr!l.le::nc:e has teml[F!ia'~,ed ,in ~he prevlous ~PMro~ pertern, So even jj a major expectatloaal error wa . made in :projuctiog ~he: (.~O1] ,', Y~'liOIil ,of ~he move to P03iD] T the imp~~ca~lmjj ~, tlil.at iillB.'[le should be :lJiU lil1lats,i1: one. more ]uve-wave sequence to ~h€ iJrpr,- ~cnl~liltllnlb1lg [rotrl.IJhec:nd of \Va· e ®. ,COlll,l:ud.u I,IJ)' to '00 percent of }l'our crnpitrL~ 'iiFi! Itnm.!>: :partiicu,hu' trw.

i .

2) F'mt ~I ,Iace~. st'o.iplC).ss .. n. r-ers.e. order ~~. j u;st b@Clo.~l 'tile level gf P'OOllit (l [f ithe order is el,ec~le(~. s£U to units, 'l he net short po. ition WEI.!. tI~ 4.U!n1Hs: even ~ relabv,ely sm;aH movement fi:IJl~i([g below PUU[!J (Ii ~1 u.Jldcli. :stl,mtl,;~ to 1'C,t:O"!.r<B:r aJOIy 10 S lnc'U)mdl on Trade No.2.

'. ,) "nile erderro if'. :-. :.-.;;" C~lf[JJ '[JJO'li have mo.rn (IIg;g:r;ec~!Si ve ifctentioc E rel:Ji~'-ve 1.0 the fi:r$'~ £t{Ilplotl8 order, even ~J moo)' are .... i.:11H11iBCI.§. 1I,p. !i;;~frIlie leve 1. Tbe :re1is:olil,Ulilg ,goes like this: There wasa f]ve-w~'!f.'~ sei;1lIl;L-em.£e. from Po(i:tlm, 0 '~O the pea! of 'Vave (j). [f it was orno,wed. 'by ad .01' b.dow 1:){Jlm. OJ. men ~,[ is a~l:tla6.: c·e:ItJ]rn Hl~'~ the ofug:una;! a.oaly ls was tUa,,-vedi, TIK: tU.jJIJ ~1.Y'ii~ J.\JUlJ iP'IU\E~". '0 lU 1.111;:' WiHllC oJJ 'KiP' 11{I11lfbd I~ COl!re<:Uy 1;iI;bE"~M fl'!: !i C ... \·!lI, .... e !:.'if ~tl .i: i'C;$!LLi"'lf" ';:;Q.,~.l;tiQ:ll. TJ1-..:. r ..:.fo.c .... ·IJ.,",L L.~ been labeled i:lJs. Wave ro l'If~8.k ,r:ou~d ~UJI~ n,Y be .:'[~. ~~.~uinlJ.l!s of a ]argw- degree ·War'i.re 2. or Ws:w :'!t.

4) [f the Ma~:eme1Y~ :iii 3} iR true, Ithe.lensllIing ~~rop he;iow the lle'vellJ)fPo111r~ 0. iaas ~ long' way to. go. The terminetien of '\Vave 1 or Wave t! me[DHonoo above ~bQ1!lld he rO:I owedl by a llIo.!\\\'lI1DIDOiv;e, as clIamagJilfI!,g: ~j the I"\'e·w-ar~' ra.lny IJm~Jel"I:ea :fr~~D1 himllU W' P,oiJll1IIl. T. Ih311R

• ... ,:hi); ~hc 'R:,'Vol;::r~ ora or for Trade Nu ,"::' !t\.~I. '!'.luly ::,.I!;.;;.ii.~ ~u r..,l,;uup iir.uy Irrt;;;· t:'!~ from tIle upside 'mdt:!', bu •. 8.100 ~"!,~e.as ~.arnbc~m, ufl D, [lGW i1:l""l,11d"ng

~lafl1 oriented down wards,

j} lf Ibe miilirn.ltt moves higi'be.r according to expeeretlona continge ,try ptans 1:0 preserve some 0.' mhe. :pro:fits h~I.i'ile ~:Q be in place, Tli1e 00001: crbi:(~d pU~!jI' :till' illliis S1"'lIJ,g~ is ~oca~:ed ,at. ('~. )'1 m.l!: 5~lreUI 'W!hef'e UU~ d;gt:3 I9ce· tr'ilJii'lj,"filedl by Hlf: j'~.1ly 11"'00;1 \'Val"e ® eiJllIIa- 8 Ilhc:' d.i:stDIIU~~ ~IF;BlV~ll ;dy ilhtii! IlIiJimn(IVe froom P'o.illl!~ 0. If ill'w. m~rt,el F~]!ers. near to IHllat level lllt~n dtrOji8 far enough to overl!p the peak of Wave 'I (in W,IIJ.ve. @). 0011 6 I!Jnil·. to £qiJ.IS1lIR! off aU posulons .. 11:leDl stand a~i,de. 'I bere :i. ,Ito.~hh!Jg mere 'uhai. co:nld be done 'r~tio,[lJa!~.y u~rtH the m~lf[te'~ Ullif ()I~d$ turtner,

,6) 'Wb;e!H the, :p.ric(lC bas II;;X'~c,~d(:d f'Q,h'~ .: '\\f} ~J 'tb¢ eqru i -aleillt of :to p:f\K!P.!IfI{ flr li.hilt! rnli!lii.1~11i1;jf'P. l~hv\!F!~rn PtOiliii~1 ([) ~iJ!>!!I. ~l!IJd! ,(!i<f '~I:!l1v.oI! I'i\ bU!y 4. IltOre u~iits_ Thi:s· br~ng8 'mite. total :lJllilrnber of un.ul:· n(mg 1:0 Hl Cal th is 'T!I'~de No. lA. There is Flow> ufflci enr ;gro1l:llds. DO eXiPec~ thar '\Vave @ wiU be ai~ lea ~ 1.6'18 I.~mes as !.on! as W~'Ie I'D. ]f'Vave @ !;;';'~I' 'iJ:s, ;j;1t:i ~, ~1:L.t: case dO percem Q] me ume, 1~ ''i\r~iIJI u!;;}e'~y I};! 1..M.~ times ii:j ]0111$ as W~r'ie. <D., 'Of even.loager. CI~~_d}'. ilL ls d~un~ble to be .. eir~ 9!grre .~1ve at this po]n!t. Co-m.m.Ei. the ,ent1l!'e ~ti~k.e; Q'f" It(} un il,:l!;.

lifY1»! I~daoed th'e'sWll '!i"<diU~~eIJ,at tlte !j).~k ([lfVta,re,:1 (aIS, suggested! above), tlu~ most Il:art can happen is t~~a!t yQU, wi~1 br;eaJk, ~,\I~n. on. ·,r~:e No.1 and N~ lA.:it ~tte IDaJrKet dtrcQjps . unexfe~~tedily. The wtl~}l,e ll:ii!iIi~I~~ ~::;frur1 ~ ~~ ilK;l.:;n :gt:ti~ui LIl1WtIHl.,.ILhu:::. hig unmnt:nL. AH .il i.(: ILmJ.:~ before ':!!:'idl ::ifk:c- ~hi~ j!l.l:Jl.Ctu:re o:lfi::: mere tm<.iif.J,g exerclses, 1"~),e~e: two tr:;t.fP.!L: .~ 1'i1?, 'W m. :(W~' ~.' i!ll, ::t ~ 'II ~ h enrt.

'i} When, ,a seqoeuce of five \va~e8 I:!l_k~, shape from, W!lYe ®;, projeor::t [H!Je probable '~eJfiL1Jln~~ ofW@v¢® by l1I:singit1iI!e~1 ~,etXlem;a.l.'W~~e,lie· huriotlisblips. U se (tie. ,F'f;fr.h. M,eas.tlr,eJ'fJ;e-m Me.rhmJ ~'Il) !:"~a[cu~a~e ~~e :pru~'b:~e '0.nd'~:PQ~IfI[ 'o:u W~Y'e ;5 i~:1J W';O,¥C, ®, Mca:sil.:u'~:; i!Ii.~so' the dist;;'JJIilC'i:: t!"i3,v~'~ed, ibty W'~w rD" 'mli1l~!fi~Y :![ Ii;~ 1.6] g" ilhefi! :lKId. :UD:]:O '~lh.e' bottom of 'W [eye: f£i _ TIle price (lbjec~~:u,!;B iP m¥~dBd, iby '~h:~:;; 'FiI1e tlllod! should ,not 'I;I!llir'Y 'much wh~fl]j the t:ar-gel o'bt~m.ed! firOm the Fiflh M€tL7.'tfr(tjlUm~' Melhod "

:1::,) .!id. 1 lIII~iits 3.1 ~!l~ ([1i!pGClOO.t :I1H~8jk. >®f "1"8.'~le .] f;'iJ.th mt.a:s.~i.u:'Jll'¥.em ~1~(t~'hod!, ]'eavuliI,g.3 unirs ~llng W n:di:e adiv!ii[It.t':ge uf ~,hi~h-rruitn~b]I:iJU.'y 3:rd 'W~.¥'iI;:- .;;:n;tl;:,n!;iQriI, tful;M'~, m~y m~t~ri,iJ.J.~Z~.

u!~~it';i, fil"OOl 1i~',arde No. 2: ;3

l ~liiil~ ~liTilii\i~~d 'in TI[,l'IAI=!; [Mo. ~t liLlP, b!i, is

Uflil$ H?'Jif!@j'!1Cf!g! a~Wf iF'ra~ N\i), 3: 0

'\.',

'.

,'.

.

..

~ ~'

Ci"itj'~~'~ pi:i'.m'~f:~';

whi!'.r~ f1r~ :l'!'i!fI!'1J fmm ~~ @ ,(!1(crod~ ,61.,S'

~;I~~~B "" ... ~ @\

~'f!'t.ii'J"i'£i::ttll!'.tJ~; fif ~~ o1i' .'

.BlIll;!J ,03, u,~~ils rf' ~tte @ is lmr£itT !;!y \

Lo"M t~f:i1m:;: !lJrJ'"' i.i1i:JJ!'e ~~,!tI~ ~~' fJ);' \

(It"

filMI/, 5 u~~f:ts if Waru @ f& I~

fji!n~ l618 NfJ\!L!S: ss lcmg ~t!, ~~;i:(!' W Td,iil No'. iJJ.I~Hiil; ~Qlrg.

Ij'j~:tj1r,i:!J! ~i[ ,8' ~mil:,'i

~i'icr.hl.r. ~rH.i;;::IJ:r!l!"'P {tr[i'irJ, 'Wi-.! D"!' (li fliil '~:tIt: 00 {ttfer 6}

\= =, =,~ = ,M~~,~ St.(.!\P'/.~,:'

\ ,Ri!1Je1'8£ ~' T)'(cl'll' .No. ,J: ~' ~flMx.rI\!1'IlI;roi1: riJf 15 r~rlii'1.:s;

I'

©

2- 4

_~I ~

'T d 't;.!i' 3 ra - e ... (1""'-,

I) After 'Vo:nte ibM J'~~e:r1li(1ed 18.1 itl!) 50 iP~ft@,n:t l.Ii W :1iiV~ tn, ('!nil'! ,r.lIf

the folllowilig ~ie~ il!O; 'Iri:':f·Rml'll1EiIlr.1ed.:

i) lhll: 3 unil ~fWave (l) is l ,,'6:18 times as long as, or Longer lU~an \V';a,'I;'e <D ~ O\f'

il) BILl.)';5 UIlU.~ iF" \V,/ive ® is less rthfijj, ] .61:8 dmi;!o!i. the length of W~'I/I!liW.

2) Th~ reasoning for I.lh~ a,bo.ve steps goes, a~olllg this line: [fW,nve G,1 was 10'n,~tthafDW·ave.<D,byal1l.doof,[.61:8orlligfter"Wavt:@L ool,like~y 1,{Ii e.:xi:end; its development us ]t~elJ' 1:0 be 1101liJ] al, Mo.reov,e:r, U[ Wwe @.hadbee'JJi ex,rrraon:l:i.li1arily :S.U}~i~; ,;:!Im Ld h,adl gai!lli;.d! ~lt~YlIJlId, very q]!.lJkk1.. ' W bv!;; @ has JlIighCT ,cJ·u.71il .. es of t:JIming ili'U.o ~, faihlH! " !,~bl k41l w{iilJJld be' ~he :bt!!;)i.bmt~ UJ E."I' oe'!!'!d 'fJ~e' peal of !'.TeCl,1iU'5iOif \Va, ..... e @. Th re:[c Ire. bel ng overly oplmooslk o:Uhe ups;ide '1'~'en,ti81.a,. this point is nQ', justified.

3) If '\V'ave @ was le " ','~rum ] J) 18, umes the ~el]gn] of ""lavle $" War'il,e ® ha 8, ve[y hi,glhl iit;J:iyhu ~J uf l:i!eing !;'-'l. L't:JJd!!il- ]n Ihi ~ caac, w'h,i;E is, WUHg labeled ~, \ViiJI, ... ·t;: ® ;s, ~cll;.l;;:liny Hrie mkkUe ph~~.of:an, e-xtt":"mr1-i n:g Wa-v·!:!' @_ ,Be-ufl!~ agr ":11. J; ~rnl'~ ai' this ,lIt9~ is therefore reason able .. ,gren desir.,~~~'e"

4) Tlu~ :i,~e8j SltlpmMS."""~lfse' order fcIJli Tf:ttlj)J~, NiIi)· . .3 Sb01l!l!ldJ be ,pi! ac 00, Jirus,1. IIll!lo\v WlIlle .Ie\ilel of \Vfi'~ <D iP-~~ ~,. If '!he decline 'whir.;h is h~iHg labeled HiS 'V ?'~v~ , . drops below 'h<t= :peak of W,pvc; (j),- the premise of a fi.ve-wave :!leq~.el1ci2l I,{!i p'\'O,unt T is wrong. "F.'he ~'!fpm(ll1;1~ ~',n, 'Vi.fa,v.e: @ shOldrl ~h~iit~t~]re be more appw.p.I'ialel;y IC~;j]£s.utle(;IJ a~ azip:.'J(1p: (_'()~Tectiou,

J

A:nly Irlmp fmm Ihe peak 'of thi . zigJ~g is. therefore part Qf ,8. targedegree d.\ec~iml~ wlhi.ch should] '![,avel w,~y .• w,j]:).' dewn the ehart, T~Je . moploS's-re'i.re:rse~'urnmegy eaa th~refQre be very agg~ sive t as the odijs for an ex rensive d,OW,Ii1W~jj'd move l!ii've:ry hlgh m Ith.:!,S ~HlJ~lIiOI1l. U !1h;e. stoptoss-revere " ~evei is hi.,. ;sen !!I1J1I i,u [5 unihc, cl.i;::~ndiJ,l~ on dlC !leil ~[t'l!ig ~8iJtioo iu TI.M"€;= No. 3.

:5) U W~r e @ 'w~, extended (Le., Hus at leaS'~ l6H~ times a,' ong as \V'~,,,,,,{'! CD) , ,aM. \V':a.vt: @ has giveIll indica1i.o.nl$ of fd ~owh:1Jg 0 50 percent retracemerucr less ru.~81:iJve to \\l;~,'!/.Je @; nbero. a' ·IQpIQsr. order m~y be placed am 'Ute leve~ Jusi: beiow the corre.s:pt,m,(j]ing Q,m.3 percent reuacemem 0'$ 'W~yt:: @.

1rt:J!1!f.e. ls no 1lI~1r'fl Iii .~e bing i!ll. n'll;:e i here, This contrived SI;OP~o.ss, level wu~.l 'm:Lify be ,e!(fu,ci:uve ift~e panem til! W$rv.e @ :fo!~ows,-one of!~e : ['dle'","ra}.r . correction p3Uerns O,Je .• a flai:. an 'mrregJLl!ar. a, ~~angl~" or a doub!e.-thD\ie}. Ute' baSils for a i,ii11Ji~ below. lhe 61. 8 percent relraeemenr is iJlre {lIbse:rvatLOIli tt1;~I, it ,8. conecuon penern "H~J[I1s, w lIb ~

liic:w~,}'..;;, [Ji;1 Uetn" <Hie Hk,:,'I)' liim~i, of' ,)11" rcrraccmcru i.s 6 E.8 pcr;;""ClJt.

Ag~q b,;~: ill'!; :;rti:nd dl,e., Pr.~=ldp'll;!! QJ ,A'!t'l!!rnat~;j).,!l wilih Wru'!I<l-' a:..

,;5" rUIie-drop frnnIDtltce'J~ak ofW·OO\~·@ ca.m bees~ahli;Slllied det1rn:U.e~~

as 8, .,hlWe (~MllllW&ed '(mt 3 ~1ru-\i'l~S)1 nd~er lI~jl a ftve~ p.mJ.liIIl X Ib~Nmes;a Cf'i~" ,aJjrUlu;ilJuli'e fG:f"iill1iJ,Y r.aJ.l~y '~(H1IieW pea.K .• ltSe),on(JJ ~Ilil~ :p.oi:nU:, the protlilbUhy or further cl.(H:.~~in~, dhlluiJ.l;:j,h!:,.'j. Itll) ~ il'(;g[igib'lc: 'IJ~,gl "'1.;;;; WUit,!fLI a J~w,aw oolllmt :f!'VJlJI tbic pt:iO!Jt 01" ·Wa· ~ tl) 'tb", >01fiJ:t ftm3litiirlJil~ ,ii!!i:1p.Ujl'ielll~: f<o1I" am e'~t'f'Il<si'!!lE."" ~rgl2' di!gr'~~ decUn.e de:IIcli~ibe~ ~Ini lit en,] 4ll 'is, fOil Il :5mID8 ~ irli"tglldall' eor~eti{J:r!l1 'liO be' 'm~Uf!JJ,g at point X (,hus argument h lechnkaUy hl error when the IMgef

~k::~ut:1: wave .:9,;1:1(:~:m:::s (I(it:' bi:~H!:t ~nu]~tI)" HU'!Ji,li~'V(:t, 1[1(1,11;': ~:UI!J!I,PL~~, ~~~ ~ie;:oJ

ii.,~, .. ,- .',- ,~, V ~:il., .. c·., .. 'I)",' I., ... ~,.,,;r,;: 1- '0, .'<"" .j, :f- ~~ -,", .]1 ,f_· ....

;)I;L.;!V1i'C, PO,Lt1;.,..i;j,,!, .,h;],~ lS .. '0 say, ~.~gu'c'., .'.LKl!!. ,,' ",Q p.,..r.;;:C;l1!- '0 ;;.:JJ.'C- Q:rop • rD •.••

W,f1Ive ClJ fiE',,;k" llhen rhe i,ltf€;gul,tlli!' ('ii)'Ii'fE'cfill'i!1! ~cen::uin 'Lro:, :n~g..1iF.i!iI_

I

1) As in. '~he earlier ~nKle5~ 8J plan to preserve some profits shou ~d be: ui p:~~(le once (tim market has s!lIf:fkiellii:ly moved tlp\l,r.arus" ~fll'b(lIltl\:illlilw1: ~8S, ,gO'ne' as. bilg~ :9S lillie pe~1k ,~~' w~~, ,J, of \iV,ave' ($I! bUJt SUJWl~ \1~!!!O::!j tILt I~ti!.?"dj!!l!!~d i!M U!!!o:: k;~d 1.~f'P'iltli~I~~ y,; ~~ru:::nl ridJJ ,i:}W] tPooJf~;-OiliS ~nd :!l~\9illd asldc, h~ this :hypoUletic.Iit'1 e~!limp1e~, ~l ls V-E!iry ~ uk~ly i~.liail: '\Vavt:: -@ is not o vet' ye~ and 'M1!alt i.he correctlve lIl'at~em -(pro'lba'tt'j~y an h~~~gula1'j will P'.r'{~'ID~I;ID~,:y biri.:rlJg the :DtL:M:k~1 oobw lUxe' o:dgl~,.of: the ad~ jacenl 'UlPIJIlOvt;" I~ is desurob~e ~:o ?:i~e, stap ~he short du~li[J,n b:U!~, genel',aUy destrucri ~ effect Q] ihe OQT:ISeC!:iQ'JJ/! S l'I~i.,s;U!mphattlJ.

:B) ,As '~fo'~" oacc a n .... c-wavc ScqUCIilIi.l:: has iii omina I 'I y fiJr-mI;:i!!, proj~~t lh~, p:ro,hii!Ib'~~' t'!nditl!_g' puin~ of' 'W'l"lI,ve til by inte:r.m];U find external 'W~E" :re~:1iilhJJ1<S.1l.l!il)),SL The [p.eak, o:W '\V:1)i,y-e :5 un \V'ar'!fe @ niLUY be caleu ~fI;~ed by ursi[Jg .he' FiJUl~ M'e.as.r-iw€,m·£I'J'/;' M'edwd~, ~he peaks of W'~ve 3 aad \Vaye 4. :~J] 1~1J W~~e @, The peek of ~he larfger sJtrucltn~ 'W,fj:~ @ fl1l@JY be: 5um~.RaJ~y derived by ~prlyrng the rnelil1nd, om i~he peakS of Waw (fI ,~TLdi 'W,[il''!!t: @. The IJitiHK, o,~ Wavrr: ,S" il,,:i))'~m;kk:1:i' ';,'.',DJh J~ii1k ilJf (~I~ bn ~e~' ;1c_gR;.i; '\\I'~,y(;: @"

9) .At i~]i~ s~i;'!j~e.lhe iltad~D' has 'IDrobtlJbly ,~xp~o,:~~oo most, If im~ t1IU~ of ihe po:re]lI:i~1 of ibe fi ve-wave mlQ''l/etrneliit from :r-b,in~, 0- :IT~ may be tffile case that W~Voe @ win. evet1tU!la~.~y ex.te'nd,. OD' wh~1. :h~~ been d)B5criIDBd as W:ll!ve @ pe:ll!lC may acuu.u ~y IDe just ~~:l:e~ 1I]l~;a-w~'y poum: or !:!' g~)8$ly CXI&Hdcdl W.a ',."I::: @,' :!Bu~ we ~,l!iii!1f.(; no W'8:y of mQ'wia1,g 11li;::;, 411, (II!,.;:: pc~l of W,a''i,'"G $. T'h000 iB no lon@!llii:" :l(Ftly excuse for keepjni!! .he: ~O\l:lS lU('ji8~~~Ii.1IIiI:;: o.pen~ TIre ,nam.e !!If thg gamrJe is I'a&irl,g' /Jrojif,s:" ... d,a, ceru,Dn :~m.iilln paper p~'(Jfits have ~Q be 'mmed, !mno hiaFd eash . .And tnis is as a ,glOCid place as ,f1J!1iY,

:10) Siu,:8I" i!i!n.y 'Of rhe ~e~\1'eb wlilere d~h(:r '\'i,.r,!!I:v,;;: .s: r.rJ~ W<1i:'!''"Jf: @ <1iJ~ expected ~:o peak~.M1l a.~~, '~m'1;g PCfS~!'~Oi1;~ 'I:'!it'h,zyu,!: d~ ~~y. S~i3!1'.id ~~j'!df1! ~Ad, WRF~ for :-i11]1plro_p:r[1~1ie: L,nflt1I.:Iill:n~ In trade the correetien of ~h.e movement from ,iP'O:Umilt -0 It 00 Poler T.

.'

A,J; . otiI,'·-. -".~ '"J~'f-: _ ", - - . - " -.

-'"~ r~,J1':I'.r"l!do.-J.! "'I Ji! 'illtJ,I):~ .rve. ~mW',S~:!Jitj.~

{wJtf. ,P,[)~nr' T, I!fJ' i.lt ~' iOO'jn~ ~!il~nl' ~'Ii,f1' ,dWp fr.w;r, F~,rrd r has rel:ffiCiie'1l :382 ~~HI' ~fl!he mQ1IPll1Ji'ei!I' (r()m 11J;1lr~i.P. !i).;

hy:.2 ili!ni~5:.1~tI,iJlg 1 iIiIi!'ilU.f!Jrc:;om~j,'\(.'i!:i!llJ'~ ,0/ l¥.1~ ~c),

Unlls, lr!lJfif'! l~ade No", 3;

Unils, I~mtm_iloo ilii irM8i NOl, 4:

Ul'li~:;j, lG'DiIli1r! ii'~ i~~ T~ ~t;I1 No., 5_ l~ni!s; aUHf l'Hrmiii,aiioril ;nj; ~raLh~,

_,L- __ I :51!i]ip~'O:!:l!!j:~

I K~r~~J.'Ti~

N.:J' 4~' ~'t m..!T.1:'rm!J"fH

'. .......1 ,oft ;I~n~'/;s

(~)!

e/

.' - = n.~:d.,' i\1';1I .. Ii·

AI' 38',,2 ~ 50 ~;I'it~rJJ

_ reJ.~tJm.l'JtQt~~ (Il'), , £.~~-,~: 2 l'~ :r:i~':!-.:." ffl ~~~ ..

ICrit{!l;~J p.mi'I.~': tLi.le:l'?i!l:tfr;.'e"~ $W~re'rJIT f_t'I!i'ilfJ: fi,bri!f:t T mnfiil'1n.~ f.lil'! omp i!I!!: ~~bJe 2:~gf ,rhert'fi)]'(",; ~p

....... lCo~f.Ii~!'l:,

J,

1

I I I I

1) ~",1JtQm W,a,l1~' 1·of@.1il3!il r'BI.r~c~. 51}! ~)o' tH.S: ,el"lfent ,ofW·a.'\I\~' I,. uI!I 3 lliUn~tS. Since Ulie expected decline is a mere correction, aiIIltJroogfui 3 huge 0.00 .tne :profii[ p\:nem:i,ad is liInl -Ilt:d. Tactics are I[t.ern:rore .a,djIUSted ~~~r,lDdingly •

2) Puta s'~oploo -reverse mrle:rji.nst above tbe leve~ 'OfPO~:nf~ T_ [rl he SjIOP' is elected, Iilu;t a maxim,lUlu of ull!it~. 'Jlie ~ ~ (If lll1e sE~~e depeuds on how the ~~n"wifui OIt tt~ previous Wave :3. IT \-V~v,e :3 was f.i'O.: extended, :ruWI"$B Ihl2. :pUiS:Ujli.)!lfllb,)" bu.yiltlg up 1:0 ,fi maximum M llIil.UIB.,

3) P'Qll1llt.Z 'CQGJfirn:tS.illFli\,'e"'!,"I".""j,~!i: Scq~H~ifi~c:rr(im,Pu·ll!It 'f' .. The retracemen. psnern of ® i:ti, like'll)' If~ 'H ~: :;t fl.P'I'IJ'rm·r1(f'cti(m, Iobalhl".,::l! 2'~gzag_

4) The bouom of \V,19,ve 5, and, ·~ne~f.ore~hJ., off W.ave @ as 1Ne~~. 'W.Ry be cah::.~ul.mi.ed b~~ !lIsung the Fifth MeOc!mremenf. Method_ A~ lube prQjec~~d pealk;, ~ 1 units, eav"ng l lIJlllJllt to. taJlII:.e. ad\i3Jn~ag~ Of tbe- WI:r~· nl'tO:~1 v..favlt © det'"liin£, .A~l'e.I!1~atu"'~~J" udu:: ti!..!;n~I;;:' ~:'IUt.~nu:s ~L IL~lIi: it::vt::i ''L~d't'e!e 'U':Je (hop from Poiuu. T b:icS me:l:';Ii~cd 38.2 :~rcc,tlt of ,th~ upmove fro.'flfl-' ni lilt n io 'P~~~ni T. 'Thr mtilT)'J1a~ i ..• hi:;;: If .he rmm,roflbile if11l~:t1 'If W.RV(l!S C~Ii1I. n01l p~d~'eb' [lrodYce' ~ five-wave eo - .fili, {as ul often hil!Pr-e.n~ i~ short-term WG:JiV,e schemes), 'Dilen. [then proh8Jhi ~iA)' m a. sidewa!JSi (,)0 reerien (for example, a :f1al.) is 100 high for '~omfo:ri;, T,aKillg SOIme p:roHH; $Ii[ 3:tL :1' '-:!'(:ellit reU;!l(:eme~n tevet 18 a very logIcal it;;~ ion,

5) W~ell W'alile (6) llafO retraeed ,38.2 ~Al 5'@ .PN,cel1l~ of \~l:<lJ1j,'e ® .~ 'sell ,], more, 11).Iln:its.

6.) Move 'n~le'topUij_)sa (nu 'IJ'eV('l[Sj3 this I ume'~) to above tbe 6] ,,8 pero~ni: n:~~:1K:em;;::;Ii". ~e"",e~ of '\~I"a",e ®, [,f ~Hle" SliiJP:~oss 1$ elected cover aU, sh(:JJl p&&\ihot.l~. and r,;;""'\fid ~,idc.

'7) 'Fina I~.y ~ wben a f ve-wave seqaenee from. U~e 'poe;l!ik of W.ii'~ (jI h~iim I~'l;m " fbape. complHt for Ule 1:lke~y trouglTll,of W.a "'e.:5 in'W ave© !!Ising' lhe FitthMroif~I~~mt'i1uMe~'fJO.d. ProjecJt a~ ,ulill£tmrgclfQr\Va,ve © lb.)' assuming equ;~lity ooJtw.een t~e length of Wave® and \V,ave © Cavu d ~(Jirt !;Joi[~mg.:n:o;; <Rit the (libfficdh'~ !!;'loo:¢5ii:. w tbc eurrent msrket priee.

8) Wa~.: for.a new i ign 0$ a ramy I~O activate. Ihe EUimt \Vav,~ Trading Program ihrough another eye ~~.

11IwI:C is a maaim PO'PIJ~;o r W~d1, W..-:Lv(; tl:tllfLt,y5UJ.. whi c h S.'I:101!"'~!:!l. set (he.

IO'ID:' for thi section: l. 'You mde l1!Iooe'y trndill:'l!,S the iiltl:pl!il~ [p.rru~~s, JOIll tese ~m [rndin~ 'Ute ccneetieas,"

There lsa ~.ol 'of trUlilh i Iii.lmfl some ''WhaJt faeetlous Qbfie.:rva.:i rn.]. 'But are reason'S tor hra'!;'ing your Rki.1l ~n.lrndtng corrective waves. The IIlIUke['~ln.ds 41il)l.}l)Ill iO l.~tl_:~[lIlufdlt ILli!nlt:: m!;wlwUi!l.JtU~or ' whH~ imp!l.!lU:sc.· ... ava;.tillk,e u:p =hc rest, S]dc s~:ePipif.l.g correct leas of course IT.u;;onIb H-,Oli. H-~. tr:.ldcci' will be id~c, for more '~h:RI~ ~iI~llf iI"I,f'Uie time "filere :An" 'l;111.~~1. i;i1"!lnI~ wh~f.E'o oJ:~rJT.!Il!'ot·1 ~Vt:" wave can 00 '8;,Ure:m,e~'Y 'prof~i;r:1Me~ as 'ifll s~cond! waves, for example. h is nonnel for second 'i.V8!\<'eS to retrace. SO pe:rcent or mote; t)jl ~ re'MllCemt::.iml of ] 00 pe(i~[I[ti is 110ti unusual.

Trading ]'OluttilJ wa .... 'C:s !1;;;1U1 be very d~~lge .. w!). hiIJWI;;:"I(II;;!:!'. 11~!!.·~ b i!1O re~:iJaMe Wtly Ito ])lfedic'm wher.e chi ,d W9!V~ wi~,~ ~liId." Mi.UliY a pau<;,e SIlISpec ted o.:ti ooin.g tihe Olil ell: 0] a 4dl W$iJV't:: c.o.:nii;t()tion eventual ~y rumour m hej!L~' rhar -a rnlaor 'U'eltI1l:Cil1!~ru~ 11m. aJ roori.ng 3:rr.:m wave extenslon,

Trade co~tive W8:'!.re· if you require, btu pr~~ w~1h tnmme cm1!ilOl:l.. .

iP,ar1 VIII

Ca,se St .1.ld~es

Apply'inlg E,lllli,ot.t Wa.ve ,An,alilysis en Verr'y Shorl Term IPalls:rns

'\l!Ihat yr)t11 h~~'lIt:'! ,~~!ISfJ' 1i~~cl ]5 probd)'ly more 'W~'lr!if!e ~~ly!ds [l~t.edi~l~ dl;i!i~ you would ca'J'e· to know", Jtearli;mg it WaJS easy, A:rply~ these Va'J'iOIl.!8 rules, te"el~. and observations on rmarkel. da~a. W['nt the expecradon of IlI:l~i[IJg IlLlOrI~y OlD. ~h~ exerelsc, ls s[I;J]l.elh.iOJg else ..

The ·~!Sill;;~l, WI4.j' ~.V '~~tl!rH ~;s by ~,~wk.il'~il!:, ~~. eA~I[I,IIJi~; W;I:I:'ii~ ~u;l!IiJ:sb

'i ~ I;'l;~ ~"'oI'!E'I1'i"''''_ E' .... I· i; ·I~CE. Ii.~~ -II .. ~".:'.,.~" tlJ.",,~: the l!1 .. i; .. C.!I .... 'I!"'t'.: 3""': ~~ ..... ~,"'~'i ..... .".~,

.!i::> .,"'''' .,." _ "'1_'.~""'" &!,.,,[ ~ - - 'i!,O.I!., .:>II'" .. IWJ ~i..... iJ!. ~ ...... , ••.• ["1,"",, .. !,., ~ .""~ I!. .... -' .. I!J,.~

by '~ooki:lllg ar ~~hlow,-hy,-'hI;j)",!ijj ocom.Ulr~, of acunal !I111l:!li!y:IilH ~ and raeries. 'nile

:~eam~n;g 'prooess is filli1he.r f.~adHi~.)ed. iff cridQlLte 0'[ Ule 'per{'omhlitCe is :~II'tov.u~d.

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Etto]'1\ has been mede theretere to pt(wid.e.:3. ~H~I:!Ot e:\a_TI1~~es U1Jat 'C;:Ul ,i!jlw 'ii"'["'~.j!jb "W,i!j.Y~WIJUl ~ .... r",i:!ii;:;;)'''' U!l) .]1 .... ~~iI1U~l· ~UI. W,i!i,Y~ i;u1i;la'y~b, 1~~~(:; '~'i!e-te ~m~T :tleoo=itl:~:l.e.nd;;!;l]m~£': :lL'1mde: Q',n 'H~e R.ell!:e1I.\ll. ~nd !'e!I.e'.I.'a1.\e' netwerks dm'ili~;g '~~1Ie ei~ihi '!!.veeh rli"OIfr'il M~i" 'I~, M 1 ~~ 11y 'I n. '19R1. Lllhli~ peril if'lll~[ 'W~It'ii. pfitlllilrU'!y cim[IfJ@n, 00 .aOOOllJnit ,of the oomplex.i~ I(),:f ~he liliaJd:e~. mO've.rneliU: durung th~~ '~ime.. Hopefully. Ihlis wm h,e'l[p :pre,p$~ the 'be.gbmer to the :rie,mil,ilies ot'forecasting W~!i'iJ1e amlysis. It should be ~[Jrre:C~led ~jh~Jl Wav,e

A"""i~'!J''''I''' ""', ..... o!'i;iiIIlJ'ol'Ljli'H'I' I'iofi'id"'·e;;:o''" ~~' .-1 ..... ucuo .. "'j ..... il """'I"';';'Il~""''''1 '~1~' i~'t"if'··1 -,'-, , ~~""~J' <M"- ,I,", QlJI '-"'.~e;'!.)' .~ r"""'" uo"" ""' •. I.JJ • ...,lIU .'!.)'~I <l!'.11;JI ... '" "" ''-''iii, IJ!')\U~ ~u ~ It'"""~.h-'u, 1[lJ

question S:hoo:!d (i(nI~y b:;; 'OO,nlSiOOI:.eJ ss 000 oo.~:ll~'cx ran of It~~.e oQiyetriM, srrucrure ..

:lBe!yond t~~ '~j{tl,l!aiI, ·c(!l~!;ext !TJf tb~ I~OLn."JFLendl~ti,j)'J.:l:8. I W~.!:l!~d! ~IO ;show the pi~f';liins that ar~mi~: the un w,i!iJl'y. as 'I.!le;n a~ the oocas:~t1ll1i!I;~ lre\VarrH:;;;

I'L'o, - '!L ;I; h If"

IL~i~l cemes me W£I.y 0.: ~. e w,a~ .antI .,ys~ : >~m U~ '~ij) nme,

TI~t pUJP~·e t!€.e ~b,'U;rM .. ti!,;lITllII~ ,HIIIU:lul,ysLrs '!rVa~ to OiIIllIIti't.ipH~' tb~ ter:nlIIi'll~!L Limmrl: ;iI!lfli]Hj' .0 W,ilII'\IC '!Iiif Iilln. ~I ;i":r~UI~.,n1 ,011' Ii IU~.~I· P'fi~itc:.i'iiI! :f-l"QiITi! U,~, hii.'W!Il: of J9iUlIlI:li11liY 1 ;QS,7~ On:CtH{h-e, it'[~fflll imd poiiTl'~ W~I '1(I~liIJI:ifledl, .he.!llE';· it s.ep was it{~, dtel,e.rrn'ine fJ'he ;sjtfl!iG~JI,ID',e arid ,o:t~lje<:dve of ~h,e Wjn;IJirrg C wave,

W;~.ve A had cmdU!si.vd.,y e:~t{j:ed ]I~, e~[:~y Msreh at ] .:8.150 ~ The

n """"'-'e Ohii ..... C~]·-.~.:I; tbererore ."<'i'~, iClo-e •• 'it"'r~ ... ",I;foi." ;,'1:1 '" ij -t;!,,;:., .... o:~. ~ - . , .... iI-. 10 ¥!"i!'I,'!,i, ,'I..!'i""· I '" "" I.K; ,,,., ,1i.!\J.""" '''''',1:-1."" ~ UI' '!o"I' U!;;\ ',,", L!1o:'~,,-!,'!o"I' ~.I.., u, ~ 'ifi,U' u 1~ln UJ,

i,Y,f4~'~ A, :;jck;gjJ'UYj luhe ,P.l!oj;gcl!e:tj, il!l1lil.U~, :shol,li!~ bi;e :~ <382 li~:n~:s uh~ '~!;':UI~d~ ,t.lf w,:!Lv~.A i:f' tbe p<li~~e:[':l:1i w.::ig ::Jill "irn~~~l;l!It!'·. Thi~ ~s;'flIo!!i'jo ho:!ld 1..7250~.s 3ft rJb~octive:. 011 the other hand, ~'f the pz1i~iern wax,:: Z1 "f at", the lermi:Il\ili~ :po~ iiU' {l,f B s~~UJld I1O:~ go far~' trem the :1..,.16$0 area

The price aerlon leru:lfing to '~he M~li(.un 0:[ w,i!I:ve B WilS ,!a:{poc~oo '~O !:alu~ shape at ~ downwan]5 (!I:~agon..al, tf]a:ngle, at 'wedge. A:s. UU~:,cO'Lll_memu;~ry tiubl ~ ~,~~ _llie weld" Qf:May :1..8. 19,87., .Jllt:: bououref W~~~Ii;:;]j, lUI")' hir",,~~ltrct!ldly b~e'.l!1! S'E!~11 ~~: :L~~r 1 ,76:50 or, :i!!~ 'mlw f:.l,'\!\!Yre1 :f.cenad.o ,ctli!ed for~ i~ :umy be seen ;i1i.: '~fll e lower '1 . .70'8 ..

The :pfe"~f.lm~.ing lSelU ~~.nenf. m: tlil~S lime was ene uh~'XIJt-eme jpe55nni5m fOF,the US donar"s. he~Uh" One New Yo:rr:k a:tudysl had even proposed 'nu~t ~~]e d(li!~.ar was a'tIOIJl~ ill1 drop i;om:o a '';oo~!lornless plt" lile ,BIUmt wave ow~l\oo'k WiO:Il csi~ igbidy more, Of.'tlm:~stle\" S!.ilJ1;!~cqUC!il~[ Y' bJ the.8I1id.oQif' ~h~.Il W.a¥~l' a.;S'hiili[p ['.aUy ito the ~rme:il il)'W ~ .. Qt) WM ~:p:'!(:u~d to;('..OO1Ip'Ei'1'~ an :u~.JU:~arji or flat :pa.tmm ..

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! W~S hOP-fit! ~hlM &C'OO:rI f~ ~ IFrid'~1 ~ul'd ~lda· SiJo'lJIe!' clues iJ1l1I n.e~r·bjfrnl d~f.oolion. ~t !h8ifl$ 'iVa$ not rnlOClit to 'gil on, 'lltN~ 'bFlJ]f1 panli?iFlI;;.iFI~ ,['3, P-J"()'b$,l;iIEl' !s[i1a~·ooi'Jk iii) ~hQ 1.7800- Li'9 iJEM 8re~ but itia. gUet;l5}ii'~ .aMe.r tlila~ PQ]nt, The migfnalsc9Mrli) O'~ 11 If(lHatJQ' ~IJ' .~ ,~2Q!J l'I!j_~ ... 1t.Ii).' ~~I' d~i.1H;:;~, a1~~ nu;l biea.k 0:1 1,7]"161) F'fiday. rut I ~Eli0\8 iMllhiJi)j to re!f]lIF.lDE!,m:l'l.!llIii st rhE!' mQment We VfiI ha.\!'i;!' lQ IIQ~ e'loowhmJO 'for !ilOW diroo'U~:i-,.

u!ite d'(II!BC' irs':5<1i!! !il!JSOOJ;Ifible ~i)r~.~ery 800rNmm II ck..:up' to i!oo 1 72~iJ """Q='i, 'but ~hf:~ ~ hfgA!ZiF !I,:;·_.clo;:: :;:,,"'>:<r,jid! 'bc

I!Jf}OO to ,S!Ii1l '~M bue};: 'OR Sni)f~1~m. TI1e m~ii,irn"'\1eiiV1i' outl'~I(,~ mGi!,~t:aI!iz'edl8!.1ffi~ielitttto suppon an 3'11- OlIt ~'8M!f!i!Ff!l3iillj'.~ti';m '~D' ib&8n 1t1e d'ftoll;;:,r. Iwt 1.n;(!; s;hfl~~: side of tfile ,Il!'mike~ sef}',oos to be r~ss ri$ky ,a~ li1i:!;;, [po1nt. WliliiIi:!' nne, scenaM of 1i"~1i~ 't>O l_~2~ ri!ma!1IU!. Via'ti!e' ,rot wiii be unlil B! tlrE!slIllfO'Ml of t. 7161!J) l1'wlll 1a'kn;."li Ij')Lmh tllrougtili 1 ,7'950,to''IN~rnant r\f!,",ivJngl'~hi:!i ~ooi1 'l,'E:y'ff.I 1/JeW.

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8:!,i !Do.s!nr!ii'!ll8j.;}E!r~ ~ja_~8rG!i." lJet.=i.lsJid\lijt5l '!(jcw'o~ '1 .7f;7f:1'l!.IilI~ gt!l. ~i01er'!lly 'Cl0S9' m the iWget aa '1" 76SIH1ID.lbul, II. w~ Ing~, eDoUg'Iii, iWZi' ~11Jt.; ilo1Jrl), DEM Oll<ll'il'Yrili ~J1QI.\' Qni)! ,f,! ,~''lro!li!{€t. s.Gq!.J1iIftOO ~1fOOl1 '1.7&':1(1'. Tile ral).'y rinoe, Ul-etJ i'Hlm llfLe 1_']570 bwslrUr~i[i1J1 an [J!!ll, f:ried"ul:e d~ ~ '~" !')$SO, ~o' QiJ\OOpJ!IiOO a 6=Vi'<lf'/!Ii ,~q:tence'_ U"I the, f:lII@~. ~hki,~miliTIiLy iio. 1!U1lI'ke a,::;i'Wf.l,'i'a'~iJe~ ~n~t:m!Jl;::$ '!J!,JI' O!l!iIJook 'tor tliJiIli rn~luil1'1·1i3ii'ITL If 'ti/iIe lima;rik;e't ~aJliem tr:~Ge8 oot filollillng bi.J1 '~lirl'i:!!iM\r?!v"" f'OliIlili3, ~1i61l iUs loot 11iI an ,~~ phase; i!L.~ '"",'fI '(!i.'lF. ~D~ct ,l'jw..!t irnITioCdiata, Ina¥a;;.'~ rlev,; ~«&. lih!~ in-' fNi~['3t1)" FO'III'i€iS fliii} I~S!Ji) 0.1:,~ 1P~'ib!e' rri~~' up to ~he ~ ,526.0' 1lIfM,D~fD:r,a,!tiIrifl~ ~g. naw tows. ~tr!Ow1' We,~oo the rd9~i '!3rsq.l~ ~' ,j!.J:!ot 'f!!) pi~ ':;ii"! !ne 'Eldll:!ll')\fJlmfl~, 'l:iul Ii ~m r.o.$t M~p)' ~J,i~il.

'Thi? IfI~m?''"'f r,;::!IT1~ !;:!~t 1!119t.rt j;lf-Q,!,€Id ,1], ~n as it Q8i~ 'Ui;< 'ijitJ8' t.tJ, e1ofa!'tml!Ii the lIleaJHi!!f.Ml n d!r!,pti"l" ~.tr· '~iIIg~t dis· ,oo!1ftre ~tJ;lr'Cby 'mii;, :!iUg'hrty!;!'lf j ~'F.!lieqt·!'Q man~1l tlilJ~ ~, dQY.m~ i~ ~I!!! po~~~i~, (!'l,-'IO!~ Ii',rilih thrl;l~1'O'4w.' ptrl'I,\atlil.$, if ~l'ie ibigear ~~UII'e ls a ,~ ~_¢8', wflklill mig'ltlt be h ctllmrill:fOrm et ~I~ IOollar/M~, TI1i~.'~'hesi5l willi LlndfH\[!6 :'i ,I"; iJI':dillI1'AC~ 'If.i(:i~~. 'Th~-efitJr'8' w{! i'law flO ,dhoiQe bu~ te.mpgrarily joilill lhe Ir.]iIliI'lis {;.;: '!be, br~loc!u~ Blfllli~S" TI1~ 1'rIDg[ liKely sceasuo cmiis iCf a. ~rp, ~ to jl!te 1'. 7',1]..1_745F:1 ~MilI In :;:r,'nOiil' ~R moi IF~, biftlhlllt~ i~ OOr1- 'iIrrnedi CfIi a ltir,e~n of '1,7670'- The jpl!ier in iItIQ p~ !,!hfi' ~i~' ur ~,jii!X;~"ii"'!ir~ II!' '~,6200, 'gltll:5 a litBW !;1uit '~'Ilitli i!!J bre~k 0.1' 1 ,7;BSO'. The ,roa1 fili100Sa~:e 'ttda.!f is ~i;i':3: 'j'1lli€i' prqfits en OU~ ii)!ii:lFfill1e. oatil 8' tong~, ,[:!itj_~ \'tail for a In';:'!i!lI~,~Ih.-.;;o;';!!;I~ 1-CQ!l!.; i'<.>ii~o!;tiL"', il,;;;'11:' ;';',fLao!:.(i.'!'! ;.;.j·~I~'ClO;< 'oom!!iIQ ~tooa)'" ~ wle II 1M ii'Ima'1I¥ IgoorothGm'w~leii1 '!:he.'IA',Ei~eoount is w~1I d~fI;lOO. jfie prBSElitrt,~il.ii,ila.tiQll f~ ~ '"iU,:t th~. ~ willi ~ ~#;!w ju~~ ~lrii::;. tjr;:!I;;,

We"ve i;lo:l'1ih1e ~l'n 6mO'!te, LeltSlud:;,at anj)~oD:rlati!!'IIi:!!i:~ls ~!Jdi"i!i!J:.9 ~~~-bM;~ pr,(i~)3~ A. ,Sin all 'Irlarrtgle !n 'thEl~ '1 ci·-tmftI g~n[~, pro¥ldBs. iiltar'g:uotgf 1 ,,~D-'1_ 7:8SCt ~~'QJTI.~, Theprice ~ni'tQli from ~ .$000 Mill,), 11 ~o 'l_T' :0 on M.ay - ,8 lmu:itip'liQ"di bit il) . .6HI,,~ ~Il~n $iJti!~adI jf,J;lJIF! ~lite 1."'1',Ej:M:I hign Tl.!'S~a,~ 'Will ifiE!!1d 'Ilil'l3' ::,I~ ;J;lf 'il ,~5(!-- ~ 1:0,'1,..0, ;::J;l'Idi 'th:!l!~ oo::;lJ~p~. 'iii;;:!' ';;1;!rr;;:!i'1~ ,d~~!ll!11;! m;;r,y or nrla~' oot !ilP ~~\j 1'" 7E1i5 0', Ibl,Jt'w~Ii~1'il'thedi)!larg!Iit.sttil !Ii re, fflMJf, .rll}~ ilf~.!$ ~Q-uldl ta'};;e me-if' pmlii::s ,~oo waJ~: fllf O1litm DP~fl)J,J· lflIilie!; t(I ~~k,e. !oW-n'ak ~~ii:ions ~aln. 'T!i'la.~~jiJ"'ii'i"~cfm i!;: ~!I;!w!:f s!hIa:pl~.g ,EiS a ,drf.fUo, ~t\e IOW~l '1_'7tr$. ~g, ~ ~J;e rnoJlF!emt, w~ can mle· out ill flam I.ilIr~g t(lr .Ile iOlllC!t lhD u{;uiiU rnMlum '~rm !<;tr:Jt.Rg~ ~ !<;RII-and-imDldi m:;!!1 ~irI 'i!fflrk, ihut ,nJ:"ii :::IIel"!Ounl' ii;!f ~ liiDled dO\l'JIIl:aide IPctQU1Ia} (an:::! hOOil"e~u!il "''';lii~F.I}ii6,) ti:tiI:e :;r'l1I',I~I;;I·I'"IJI·,uEliiing GGl1'l8 oflln~r!'l,- andllillteF-daytrOO!!iIeWIII P[i(iOO' Iblrl i)i1>i)\Iiie. Hire b:e51. re.1uIilii5.

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w~ aJj'Q. al Ute 'Ii!~e, W,i~ Frioo\!"I.9; aotion be'ii1O O'f riD helP. So once agRi'n, we· !Qol-:;l-or ',"-GI)' ,sOOr1:-terF.J!l1mdlifig ~pPQrl!1.mi~iCm inrtlOO iI113Bintlma. \'V..a .... {[j Ii~.!f §~1: a.'br~k Q~ ~,n6Q'tOOa¥. JU!:lf1liii/J1 'Jgffi '~n~l';,la,~ h~flly OOlite-ins ha',iQ ~d '~ft.I FuiidF.l(;"~ '!enicEiI M't::e, Thlsls a W~I'IiI· ~n,g '~:!J~ '~1rtll ~i;!!;Iru;rfj 01' a ~C,W1.J 'Ifflt,~. 1(;;, o:;!ri 'lh¢l virge G!fi:Jejn[l n!JlmIQd, ft.dUf!ln:erbr,€!a'k,cl ~ _7~k",(!iiiJiFI'1ii!j: '~1l!3!~ 04!.!r]Q«o.r~ ~j)OC-k, aJ ri$~ 10 at ~et '1-S2'&l, Ig:e~s :;j OO'W oo~v !'8.Mi'tJ8· 'buy Dolla:rs fi)~ :f! :poosible ~~~ 'c~ ~ .79 In '2'4 ru;ll!!.!IJ!;l, After '«,hm we MI~ r~s 1lile

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fi·~'p.'. The ~ll!1a] iE~ I n Ule ~oorin hf.l~ni'i!.been iha!l"F1mef'W l'n I'firn;~ ds~. 'i\rflo gi;~fl' Ipred~e ,:;jf.i.~~ri~, 'f1~ pOll(;ihiA

IIII!! y€1;.lbut i~ i:s. ~j8' !iJogW' W O!d adleYI to ~he ~QJ;I,CiI1 ' ~ !TIt!ril;.et, !I"F1Q'fe!l11llllill:s. 001: in SCfIilIlt. d'a,~i;l II 1$, jw~i ~s-

'lfhl"~ki ~~N:lril;i" th[:!~' has thra.1ltOiln€!d ~ dlilpr:e;;,i;. 1h~ ,t:<jbl[J"" U<WIfr.J,i;lIJ!Ji1 da)'~, ~1.~ Pl'o~ld"e: the ~ij! ioo;s lJ~it:!!li-

b~fi; ~o'ljrne 1, ,6 are a IP fi~l"fl' ,ilI.~~.aJ!iMI rli;le,_ Ol,ir ,jgilrrer. 1.~)1l(I f'1 =~:="""=-'~~"S"""=J=""i:C""'--:--"'I"""":_~"":. -- .. ~-;_"'- .... ==r=-:Th=---:' ..... :--:. = ... ==;r==-=:,":,;_~""" ~~~=I ti~~i '! h~ili PKii:Ja'biiibie!;l crr G«:i.!Il"€'IlQe· ~ on ,QUit ;00:09-

a WJfL1 c8m a~ tM' OI;i~1'. i$, InoW' re5l!,l~itf.l6ed! and! urrns - rie:I'Pe, 'the Ilimim 'Whe~ 'thll!S0 "&ooiiiar~cs ii'~F.MIliiII '!/;ilictl,

imEl, aFli ace' .. !~i!i! vJm\j, 'l.'ffiil;!h Ii Lh8;j 1Prat;!~l-Dally ~'iiQi'i up iitIld sp-cq:ify wllllB"ll'OOr!!in ~i'iIMn ll~ ~ pm:;lI~fyet of ti~~i!5

,end!! ta,M week" Il;'ab [\)~ a lI",ajl~' Wi.i3a"l ,$3, ~'~..edl bY sel'lfie Friday 07,4;5 GMT' or p1ailil 0'1' 'g !Ii~$, ,ADd 'l)Theii1ll1e oQIJ8f)' i'T'lan f'Or' hill1lselt. FOf,~ IGftlg

~U!j :~_jI!I!I~1 '~O 'Mist ~fl:C Iil~ 01' ~mJ;!' 'bUl!e a~' 'the 1,78-';.00 ,Etm€ilt:h (!f'ljinEl !Sl;Hme,1ill11esi"f,I d.eaF;3Jndsiharp,ass~~nUs c~l:Qf'I

.a1l"eB, ~ii1ooJdi lJ~ht:i'l r.f! ,ill ,~J®tli!]h.e.tlldorr~ r 'failJj[nes~ until ·~hc Ilf~t fIht~ iD.Qir!M'~ ~iP ')""!Zi~r~ 3~'ppOO a~ 11 ,$1, a ~~r"Oi"l~ i9V1"Q9nea .iF.rifJQ8Glibl'i;j1 {1;i",1;i!1J ure:iee:lr,B.JbJ8) in ~hi!i, -3Fen:!L 'NIii¢"i\fI' ~fiJ.y ~~

IhaJ!J'o:I' ~ 98®. A ~ak,c-11 ,s.;; 'I!Ii!ll~ikely fW'.;;i~\i'Cike ate&1:0r1Ui!8 1 .. 8750 limat tlile .s!ide 'WaS 'bIun' 3J fl'lliiilot',~~1'i '#9\,18,_ The'!eror,e. ~M 5~h 8Jlid If1~DM'C!!J~1y \r~!J0 and wfrer,e, i1Jiiiiietla.iFll~ ,e1~atli leads: Ie, 'ftundsr

1l19JiI~ '~'!.'Il~lllrr b!ro'tw;lm'lfJII {it!lVIOOi~ill,neSt ~i1.Q ~ of h;lllgrler.m last W3@ (iii' m ~ ,mjMr i$'eg,Yence ~h~d m~ ,[:1. new' high Cf\i'!Br ITIDliltal aof"S .. ~ IillQ5I' COmm;on 'erwr' is '1.0 adCfl't a G~~' "

dollarlbeF.!!"!!l, ,1h.mtrorr.!!Ii ~oo;d i\i)rtliICJLJ!JlJI~ trubdorni!'oai i1Il"I'j!' r.llImla~ '~9 M,.'o!~',~A hOi..if!;l. Thlii 1 Q-I'1'1I001i!l '!iW@fJM1oo, ~'perl ~~.U:!l. r::~ntl9h- f\hl'l' Of!;;j, eIItrFe:nlty iin ~ue. ~~ 1l!iiEi~ 'rhe DailiiT call ;:mj.ygo ,~m..

ii~e~oon. - non- The vetlfc~~ llI~h,nre oi ~M price, rn!)it0~n] SIID8' a~n 1\00 1~el!li,oo:ll1po!Jl!ld'ng th~~ ,ermr 'b~ IlgmrirtJ9 ,f.lnj~hii\i) 1fi1$!t CI;IIl'

ope:ningl ~y liS COOrliO!Gr1et~ 01' ~$~~ 50 its ts.afe to ts.a1 ilaO!cts I~,

tiJ1l:it 1 F.l2'tro WrioI.iI1l'i ~r,o~bI~ p!\':i!lld'e 'buuhe, ,!:lightest re!liataoce, to '~hI5 a~ine ((tl!!'F.ur F.i;dlla00 EI', rf ~1J took iOC'!J IPiiD'Iil$ iUi, :5li!g. 9E3t-8!J1 w.eollle.s.ooy, !Q~ Tor r~ 'to n;oJn~_ail~ iCllg ll:!l,io~> 'i'11~11 ,flight nmprOli\rcili]lli'il!lit '1:0 rna_~e '~h8' M1Ii'r1g worthwhili:l' T'1iiE !Fiex~ ttadfna t21rgitil, [~ fi-OW 1 ,a;3.7S-'~ ,84. I~ WfJ attain ~his UiItQlf ~h~ Il"Im!tl: ,2-1, trOIJI:;: ~ ~e~i!;;lI .. g~~11 ~y~~ to I"!I:1lutiL:an~ t::mQ"telllU roear~ 00 ~laJr.l: '~ril!g-.!'ii· poo~lOins becau.!'bE; it WQuidi be, ttlu:oo ,F.! 't1l'.l ttl b8' tCI 'wai~Jor lind!ca11Cln a~ ~ ~Bi DefQ-re'taltiing actk;ln, ~~I"!k '~,9;) ~nd ,I"! t-e&t 'Ci~ '1.,e7 Ca,i)'L ~ "!:;[]I ~1i!11d.

IMtmday 0745 GMrr

I I ~

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last'i'ew'r;ja]',s WGlli'td'o lTIuch druma-ge-'tQ 1M overgii 1'F8ndL 'CQIi15iJ!!'QariOn p~a;&9S,aFEi pan Q'f'IlIi!EI"getier:~J p~t-arn,l"!iird ,are. as, nSl:es5afY 10 ~h!:I' lTIarks~'E; ..w>jllbE!illQ i1I~ ~eE!p, if.: to yOurs end mine'. !3!!J1"OtiiiisGlida1iU\1"!S or ct1'(f,f!OJi'uir.m are '1lI~ jll~;5L (iifJJi.~L ~iL~ ~ l!iru.;1i\. 'l.md i~ ~, '!.:lui."" '8a.::;y d'uril!lgl (l!Jf1l"~ons to ~SQ '~hc ,iTh'Jn~ ~'i;lJllJ1 hS'Ie iilii::.ldle dUrilflgl'lh9i 'iimpUI$-€!-ii PM~€!$ (ir'~ha~ part Qj'the',seq~:ooe wlilf:t"! ~Q~' ~lh 1ilrte ~I'!~ild-' u~. 11:. v '00 mo"! .. ka: '~'/!Ei ,aQ[_I\i'5'.is liJiJk ~od dL!rf~ ilffl)~ iOha$e.s'. e<ut 11li-e {i.;)rreclilolE!' phases {lQIlI-er,all'y F.I:tlk18' 1!1rHi! IfirO!;i: lSh:ni.d OI"tt M!!i~\'~i)trffl(;if;S,·!J91lit;!l·.i.·~~ tf'11~iF!~ ,;::111:"" ",fi;w. ~I,,!~ .;;rf;l' t.y"i7.-e f.30'lJha~ L1: il;; IiPt alw:;INS: 1fI<;is:5iblertQ know pr'!;!QI~!I!.iy l,ijh~ '~M' ma:tiket is in aad~ees {if i1s W,ilIve' ~nt ~e.o.iaii:.' duringl '~he me-a.nd'~Jhg efl~~~\i~ iPh~~. !-b;.~',",v!!ir, 'because aJ t:lurkll;l't i!¢i aimoM ~f.ly,g.'C!€i~ Il!IIl!JlIos~'d!I!~mes IC~ '[Ile- we!il-il~ an amaw~, CSIii ~1Ja'11~ IllrllllW'late a iMil"liiiltttg "'lt1'!~!1 ,81"Q!J~ wh;<l~ iii"" (]ni3!i!, !i;~. ""'Ii"ii"" Qb;8d~rvely plaaL~ stopfila,pri)~Gct.:llg\!i.1nst'lllila least lik>e!y GU1:ciJi.l1le3.

'Th~, :D"dllar l.&!lf is 't'el)' h8<llllhy. Cllrd po;:orfQ.I fllii"l9J ol'!.::;' l!o!~' ~',I';pe;.;ji:1- OOifiS if I m~y aGrl, rut ~Mcf~Ji.!Elrll'illB.l'>5 !;ItJ~idl be ~rili"iPlJ tiD to~. ,sorne' Ipr{iUt~ during ~M trl;,l~ngl day. Th@ ,~i!iln1: piiiJJ$!? iii! I\$j'ai 'Lolli'a), i3 iP~rt,g~.;!! 1'!'lioo.r .;:liJon::.olida"t;':m p~, pIt~!" i.¢ ,~Il) ~;:rul~ 'cl '1 JI·2- ~ .~\o ,alii:cr wMlci'l wa, Wili F~_PFE'!~e t'!ite !T!ed[uITJ t~fIi1iI. So keep ~~looe Ibng ~ke w.r .a whille 'buUa1-te SOllI'B, 11' 001; aJJ, :!;iROn· tm1F1 ll=ifam.s ,m ~r~ 1!,~ '1-83 :!"~~c ,:J.~ ~.a.~ ,:lI:1iI~!'J" Wti '~'~nit IHlccflilffiemd IgQI~ SilQr1J !,lInilOOs 'W,alJ!I!' p.meFfi1$ IIilClt:at~ $I ,~bl~ Ire'!FSOe ,eF tlla~ '~MIlt. €ifil'lJlJe 1!Ipr:r.ID!o'I!I' iie CrYer,

,~ptiliii.gla c~t i~'the'o:ppooi1:QO~ ha",,"~ a:AI~'mjnd lili1l~1he fl:,:!fl.l.l~!". ~II~' t:lH~!:il ~j!:i~ to anfJi _mtl3 and ~iIl.if;fii lP~eeo~ 1l;i tJ..oi9.Ier his ca&ll n +J:vm' iirnagi'nabi'e '!NJiI~'_ ~!!11 'bmrci' iL'=itihIlf" ~~Ri ,a~I~~s lis 001. pii\t;ldi!1,pO!j:ed to davCf al!1~ pal1(:iUiillF ffiO'lo'B'.imiFlt in ,1:1. ,cl;lrre<l'I¢)'. 'o'ill i(;h (;Ii!n ib8 ~,. ;j:,tMn, 01" ei'~n,'E!1';:'" 'O~i~I~. ~Pif~',fI COfiiC~r: irM~s '~ha~ ~ 10000~iiJEl~1Ili has. aIIrli!a.~ 'been a.rriiled ,a~ k!il'J Ibef,or~ ~he- e-vl~nce, '!,!,'{:jrr,ant-s [1'. aJlildl '~i'ia': 1Ill'e ~ro~ e.! ~ml:7Q !g~ ~~l1g,,= oo.~iii.I&';'1ilI s:o:aI"Glisa,t-D ~uppOn'~I)Aj rolil~£!IfLlIi)IiI. 'ihi's, ~dn-!WStl~l!JlI~ ,i!}\f8n ~r,9i pt'onolJ,l ~ jf ~ tD.:1Lm lhe~em,'toi) 001.: ~h~ 'WrOng Wi;ll'. ,ali(! prev~i!im9 'IJendigoes ~ll-!IlnE!t Iili-:: poot~I(i!!J.

As IfiItEInrtmll_w F'lI'ltda", .. ~FF.idimQI otljeGlfi~ ~t 1 ,aS75~ 1.34- ere II~i:s. ~O 1* prE1li'l~. bu1' you m~ 'i'IaJnt·tQ oonQI ,glill

'i'9:r ;z;. l~," t"';:Ylr.;:. m ... ;,·~ ~I; ,.,oLlo!;!' H ~.~!:,,!<. V~rI~ .v ..-;l'i i;>:;-.:.."t '~h;[lo

Ibuc:k:to '1 .$45(1~ II ~OIJ! ha'i,fr,}s.1~el narvlili?; tMtil5-- tli!~,RI~n· '....snturou$ ,~r~.Itarm ~fl'.ljjers ~;juidl [pla.y sefe, ta1-i.e Y'Qyr mflii'i:~!t arr;d walt ~gr ~h p~'b6ib]lityv.;ildoo. 8t~rl!la'! lbiffiY:S WhA;i afiIli WIDlfllg for a ar{ij:l' Ii) gGl~ en Ilma~ ,~~, a ,man.CIiI' d ufilngl1De n;£(M)1: ~ hOOf;:;;, bu~ I ({iofIS'(h;jr ~he IPg.-· 'I);?_i'iljai ~n,'1 :8'1-1 .S:'l,IjiO~ ~!irn lPi6ki':f!!J~"~!iat I ~n'~ r.e-e.· iom!i!lem~ ~ e:_xcept to ~he Jt~E! tJra-ders ..

Th!s ral!!! r~, cern DD {i~r wrns, C!~ ~he '~\1ida:s! IiliiDli'lielllrum 'dl"er!l-eME;!5 II harve $e~fi liiiI year6, E;";PGf~~IiI@ M5. ,;S]II!JWI! ~h~'L mlt:1'I ~Pt!Jl'lhl1!!)'. 'w.J),. i:1!~ Mil,!, ralII'S ilJf uThan(J9 pla~ 1M 8aRl9 ~uf'le_ it 1\1111 M.kB llVior·e ri1l8iii1 ~ i5l;iupi)e or d~~ of coupie of w. ~'or ~he p~ ~c' be ~ie!iiip~ed. l .. r:r~ ~eFm if1'te.::lt9rEl sheuld dQ '!'R;il to Ii!.l!ir[ liswningl 'ro ~hjG nQIN musiQ.

Tr.r.jd\!;::r~w1:i1;! l1;c:cOO;l ~hc: ~:~l1I"mMC}~ •• rfl;!:eft".lr.l:;f!f:"'.·

,da]ioo !f~~' o:~~hUi) 'f>eei ~iea8ed! bu~ boef~r,e yq~ !tYllii t!iie reooro oy gOing .~ri!, IbU~f!;5l, ooitisld)er ~!tese: Eli10jngl poiflM; of . 8f1'l1 'W8io'B8 aTe moB'!: di.fiiewltt to p'in;pG1nt. am;! 'I ,8m net ,~ui.t~ ~Lif~

I·~ .~". minor .~.....II """I;"'" ls ,"!.'a>" _ IE---'''FI .,..,"'u ..... ·_-- ,,6.at 'Ili1JEI' Srd WF.I .

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Is 'O.'if'eii":. lIle ,rurrem, CiElCHl'le.roDIil~::JJiDiiiI il;; lliu~ $I i!itll W3!ilf); anOI '1M ifr.iilhWii'iO !'ii'.11I ~ :::hi:'illirl mrvLlnR'lIy mah'lo a nL'IW FlIklIM i1i' ::il1' le~ eqOO! ihe :1!rd, 'WIb'iCf1l itS,~)J .MY m~l!i~ aJ potafil1JaJl double, q' ,iiI~ ~h~ 1..iM 1E! ... fJI. II rJlI1I Wilt ::;a,)'I~1g1 tj~a~ )'O-l,!I Cf.!1i1f~ mak>e a [1til!1lt, IlmQn~9nr i~ilN-a.·da:Y~eIlIDy. b:l;ifi~ ¥o~!jt! io.. b!Ii t5l!lri}~C' FC'rnt'€illlbeti '~l!iat .IT:Itr.:,j.~y $W;f:8 and net to Q'iICf!itzy your doitar s.OOn:~.

A silnple ;;::ig~ag; -rhQ' moot ml)ai~ pf,l~tEIrifil t.orlhe' 4th WaNe aOlXlrQIFlgl~)J.FUJe! ,Of ~ttaNoti ~Elt~ :steady ~;PCfil: at .hllt, 1.$2'·'11.8.'210 tlr~. Sq. uFl!e!;~'tI"!I~ '!:ibr,l'j:.=t€' lP&.tflleI'Fld:f8'lA11!=i,pa tl1i1,'o ~ r.~~IIIt!r"iIei' lik~ a ,~re :zjg2.ag or ,rilfJIfJ rfjf€je :slaoofji!lli\ I ,afT! tElIXlff!!lITlfIiti-~jfig b~11g ,~0IliI48Fliifllr,M_jng Ibycks at 1ne' ~ .. ~~1 J8~1 © ;!iJ'8a 1\11 ,aru.. 'O'~r::Hi"br,~'wi!h 'lI, 8111-'1 ,,$ii,S. This e:>:p«iI:€!d run-up O'mjj!; the! .$-iN8!il!J, $eQ LJ:efiI Ce' ..

Tho ::-a~r,~ca W·;!i~ ,;!i, r!lla, 1hl1!l,lr" t:I: z;1~"';m""",, ,Q VQ1ki~f, !;if ,i.'jl! 'I;i<l"!hr;.; .iilQO\,!i!!.IEIi,U 1ol;! drop Glldl ni;)th~fl£I W ¢hang€l"~hrJ mooiulifi·leflifi QU~ !oo!e It did IpOilili' QU~ '~hG~hr "!hart InY sboFt~tml1R '!,!,la/I.re tQLifi!' W!'.l~ ~i1!J1 i!. ~_"'i!O ';:'''1; ;ml~ ,';'rifi!;;4 .:..1' ~ ~~{i~ '~!'I"'rl' ~;,:>!'I"'!'!' '!"!!1- mn:nruln ndi:cal~. $I4\PDI'i1 'ljJIIe' IiT1cdlr!!~ WQW ttlat a 200 Wffi!\!Ii lb_al;;e'oo(i(!rng ptO¢~s is Wflfeml~ m iInO rnaflllng • so w~ 'iiln tla'olQ 10 Id m:.w !ii'lii orti'-I f;!n11 ·hr.::i if~ 1'::1 r.Dr.!l; wJI:h ~ h i~ ~,r':'il,l"~ Cillln:t i IilI IT'il Fi ("i /Ii ~ back 10 ~ _:8'1!SO' ts not an Uifirea5'On~!e ~t!I1ilp1jQIl since ~t ~!laIifi;::; I"Q'I.!Ighfy' ~ ~O' peJlcen~' rrrnrac€iIJfiOOl 0:1" Ulljj:. !IiF OfCp irom 1.&4 .. lilite b~ ph:::l~f!' or .hls QaseH:llulh:lif'l{l ,shook! be a 'I.IE!S~,~ 1119 iPr~ioos t7'600·1.ii iews. I Jock. '&o~ 1,.:8'1:50 being f·each~ tOO~)' •. ,CillLci ~ 'i?r,1b~e~I,!r;:1fL1 de~!!I'!~ '!.!I"niil'l!J Li~t:, ,~n(ll '01' ~I'i~ w~ Q_f 'Qar~ fie~t Wee-1L

Th~ b!Ji;!};; has fQIJOO ,!i'I iTI~il;,l1fnr4erTIil 11;1I:rtt¢!ffii .!Io't ~i~~ '1-'76 e~ oon!inulIlS !Do g9:~ ,~u.p~f!: fronn eycles, IitlIDmeiflliJ m and! rat-e-o~ ,GiMng.a ,f.I~1!f$is.. f,lJrd ~l'!aJ1: MS linJ!!e'i\i~ably.· in1lueiW-ed my ,~Ice

Qf prereffJfi!1 1; t:iQI'tMeh I. p F!Ji:lO $'8 $ ~ hat a Ie f'g e C wa ... e 'WI~I\IRI~8dl'!J~ fIi'i8''i'ia~,mi;i !;';'IiIKll!!ie'tCi ·1.~'l!Jt~. an:::! tnat 'llilEl' 'fIlr,st of tlil8~e !i!i'i:!' W.:;i'.fr:i8 tflrmim~ :ili~ 1.S4!Il~. ih~ 'II~df'09 ,f,!n~ !ildbseqJill€im f'@'\;Ursa! aile' part of a large' ~'l.;l: '!'I'.a ... "" !ilr,LiiL~., ooJ~! fi';;;r~;.n; .IJ~ "'!:i'L.i".:J~. '."h'Uii ni i.:::>;;!1 il;lli i.:!JL

dQspl'1fii: aJooiher ra.'lI~ ~o '1.;54 of ~h-ej, i .s1111 see major ibuy.lmg Q;pPQrILlnily'~DI CQ.fl1€i,.a~ th€i' '1- ?!-1. 7i In ,aw€i~.'(lIj' I~. A. 'o''!;!riem;;Nll CQ!1~id\lu-,a; tbID ·drop ~Q; 1.~$O ~ ,!:!!ii of ~he- 2nd wa.~; m_akln~ ~hi]·,o\l9tiIli~ ~,~II~ as i9aail'Q~ 8J lOO~\iefM :a~d 'n'.a¥l3 .. This 1.$, i,lInlike!y. tJIi.It "tiIiie' power ,o~ 'tlrie.lre'o'ersal i!;, ::.. Di4Jilr ~~~ ,r;I,;;.:m~nd!il 3ti'Htion. liM :B_r,d ...Toi"!m Is ~hal: !:t faiied@i'hoorurlfoo at '1.83 llill MIa!; oo~in9 lip ,21m! wa';,!\:!i Il;iU~ !i;W~Ii!i a~ 1..11·1.78 $~n_

The, [:;I!!Y from lf$.'tmd:!lo/ W~~ !I;~r~~ .-""a.r.t I ~pect...-....j. :5piMilililllg a. l'looJi a-:I: [po.:;l~ibiime:s. IBl!~ i!lll '~lrie' precess, it rluliifi.el.:l ~~ SJ!~er of (hi@ ocuar ~;niiJng IO MYI iiJ'WS ill ~he me.dillnll-l1W111Tl. alill ~1' I ha:'1£1 Ihel'O unllkety!n '~M\WB of teeh lif~Ie-:\i'I:-d'&n oo,amdigiveFi tlilepui itlcall:$!ji,Jaf(lifii. MeIDiJr 'n1hrIl!3: 'l1'l"I9 h-@;",~ IPr~bi)' ~~I! iiIJ :j]I!OII1H!:Ir~1'I ~lJp ,iilL '1.@3 LH~M in A;518i. !?il;l 'the' b!.JGt wil~ wry ikelv ~rar:lEl' 10WEf to.at !e~(l' 1.a075! iJ(\i'Cr tlil€i' nexl: 241 ~o!Jts. Th e I:JI(!lIap C(!uldl

1Ti!-3k;e a .n~! liriargii'"lt:ii ~o~-, t);!Jlll{i,'-O~ r!lt'i,;JJ.llIIHI~r,J ::.~II;. in,i)~: f.i:lrr ~ il;tjur~,Q(W,Ilili[iid\$ trade'. The' short-itmm puoo.lbilit es, a'$

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d~~:;;r:f' a1: 1r.ii:!o poil'it. SG ~a i'r.¢rn l1ii~ ~t'i ~T.!gr.: term dQl!ao salss, l[loHafher tJ_iJI1i1iifigen~ 1ffi~5:are 'N{1ifrantem IUn~il al!ld 1J11I1€i~

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C::mr ·1_@.Ij}75, dhj8cd~ IhM. i:ioeM 8SilimedL Ihcugh ilh,Q D'Dllar 1iIl3]1 tIe}:; d[)WIII aQailill'ki 1,80'70 Ijd wUhl!lll the hour.But till eo ,seonaFio 'ori' ,f,l1iI ~f,J/aF ~oo I,'!,'a'ii!:!' aOIi1$Df~arkiiiil gtI! Ii!1!WOIi :s..ruppwt tJ.!y Id~ng iit~~I!t what ~heor!i 5t1;yS il:'woo'ld_ Covef ~olt-tA'irm [lOII::iff .shoos ·tat..>en y.eSlIerday arid iMialiB pufi.1hatle:lo" 'Wlllh.:lln ctj8Wl.{ve 'cdL8$,. _~1i~ a _!~~_ml;!:Ily ii:ngE!~ i!J~ '1_.le,:;!·,. 11he IDW1TaO;;'Jlilem from '1 ,e.3 'b;igk e;i('~I~t 00 pe~eefft. witicfu i5 ~)'piG-allgf !!lmall degre!Ii B Wl1~- P1Irt .8'!.~~$ .a~ ~1¢w 1 ,00, 1b0~~ i1 ~his ~1l"II"€in~ slide €I(iol~ends to mo:r>e .Man G';.6 P'8rwnUDt" tho 1.?OOfi. j .93 mO-"I'e', ~!.!eb~ 1$lPlt~l.~iJ"lty an oolirmy difllQfE!':nt bail g-aMQ'. A b-f·aak.'c~ 1.a15~ iiiil 'i~.uJ·ope oi;)rr!in{i.

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Iltw ralt from '~.lIIl(~ mFJ6 ~1J!"I;!I;i, ~1~1_;1i11'!!l oo:r ~lup 1'0:$$. a1 1 .. BO_ INo. C4ear cut pelil:em can be ded'ocoo ~'Ql 'rQ,ffi '1iil1;.!'Jl;~JIre1: acti:o n Q F11 F'iI'ii day aJIId M (!liidaj!'; bUi. Wtil'iie W'Q' '~'I1'~ ~¥ 1HVoiaJi lit l~, we >&an !:;i.e 1,!~i,.!Ii.'~,.:aII ~J,! !?!'h!!t1 it i~1!ft1~ 'Tlmere'$ 00 ·evldence 'UlIat ~he dClllaf is ,acoelera1:i:f1g on 'Nils ~vi'l~e_ Drilill9. y.es, bu~' W3 part 'o.f. a b·~:;;in.s p'i'Q~I;lw.II1!;!rJl!1~3J for ~~ 'U3.VOO. TIi!!! boet 'Iioi~""QC{I!JIiI1: SQ.-fear is ~i) OQlnSlOOr all rille- adloo Ir,Q,m thE!' '1-SIiIiQ5 P E!aK as p.m 01 ~hIS, 2nd we.W' OOiilsolU.Hoon w~iGl1l !!:t1tIMIfi WFf'!iMt~ i 131 (:ti8~i'!21 ~ris..~le ~e)! 2t '!be 1 . 7$S° ,aref:l, Bu~ 00 p:rep.ared for ~hls ml:r.aoeF.fl91i11 t1ilfDsl il~ep.IV !1!J(i} ·tIlJ~ iI.71 srea, 'i[ UJrlns. OUt 10' tie aJ ~ICHI dNJtJ1~ ;:l't!z::t[J. 'TIrtc. ifil:t:tVFAI ~licu!' deBr up iJy 1umor- 1l'Oi,'i,1. Meailh~le, '~se :sTIli !!l.rtlJ budkG.. di;lSPito our ~Ii!JlII~l'f ~~ 011 !...eo, ~I'!u~ l!1i!'lJl!8iVllil to rov!31i' 'liiIair r'{lii!f by $<!l:eklnQllr(l~Li1aQ on 'Die DIElMICHF aC!!i-!i, in Gsse· Ii am'WrOnlg on tli€!"Qrra::Ii,ra:' dal\'llWfar<:! drift afldl the· bm:Jl; ~tUl--qIt1~ lii1IM81'!1~. "Fh-ero''I'I1i]1 1:10;; l'ots O'fo;p~rb!mtl)'iID Q!!I!'J' ~liJI!14em'i' OO'!lars- a!"lhe ~;f;8·t,n ,area lin B, ~ew days-,

Wednesday 0750 'GMT

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W'e"~ nan ~11e ra\(Y pmdlcrM ID~ '1fi8~. ,B.flOmnJ :5fI;!I:!!~!Qn ~o . he ~f!Jw11i1!J pile a!l - vi' - !'iDB' .' 8J major: ~m.t::nl"l~lI!1d. !h.erEllii;l a r<ElCumog ~~.:eaTi 1bErt S 8e-ms '[.0 bMll'iie ~'amd6rt1 1~:IVIJ!]I:lIt: mien ib~ uol)!:ll iiJrf1:R,'oIlJlL!Jd.8 light ll;OIit:~ii;la~Ioo, Thorn. OIIflO ooLiF . chafil:s '~'iiil :see·lh:;!. !pa~rn{11!1i May 20 In, 22, WffIi~ i$ ~fi~d in 1EIOO~1Iit[lra1.lJ]'e as tIat

«'Jt'~~jj .. a I;)e:lirtt)'i:!' iii!'!:' fir;z:' ~i~1ii ~ho .!>i!ll'Vlfl·IIJ!"!J:ii'"lui'Vi't;IMn in Ihe U"SOOIEM lnoW', 11' imPI I Q:$, nhat ~he b~k will probably s~l'uggle·to. -. atMhe1_S00!'5'lPe,Bk;or mmginal. t;;;gi;all' ilc,.;clzo !i1!!c cr. ~hf!, ~r~fl9' Q!;!Y, F!lU~d by ,ii:! 1 l;!I~dsi1y ,dMIt lIJ~k ~ thii:!' ,7'1;11 an~;a, iiJlloWDdl b"y a.1i} 'Iillq)11J'SiV-8' r"3'lIy ~f 'Ilar to tIil~ onQ' which :!il~ tilile' rJp'rnCfl/e ~o 1 .8-1 .. And· I ::'L!Illi rigl'i! OM !.h:e. .i¥l.[:!jg W,q>!e COUm, tho '1.:94. lids' will~!< lihis' ~ water pi!iold .squi!'il: OOs1da, tM CMncm:~811 :s«1,jj.f' ~ ::1f(j explOS'1Q1iII 'tli!ii!J II!). DI} ,CO~"

II ~ ej~ Ui1'91i;11,,11 _. did ~,l':!:!J. I)" ;U.::; ·A'til~~ l'ffi !W!lpBCI.OO. 'tffiicm W.reil IiOIhifl!;lL -Ql'J( scenarlo yesnerdlay has not C'hanged,,;aoo Yro! !r€!~. and! itch \!filth 'Ili!!:I; ~.1 as we w,Hit j'jJIi' ~I'OO8 figLlr,el!l:~fI; Ftd~, ~me ~lgl'1l. "i"he. br,iti~ GleQiiollli IS'~€1 ~ge$~ ~n·eveiirt¢.f~~~ar, i~Qfa:r as ~MQ:IQf'QN rnarkert is C{i liI:o:;:.erm3d~ ,amllll'OOmLlToI1Hr,~te wit11l ~h;j) gl!Jilfl. '!MOO h-a'o\l;l tQ ~e i!!!J ali .iI i!!l! thilii m!Olrrnn:,:l to watdh tM tWilIrlililg i"all;t'", gr' fdll. ~thil1S1 Ol! ~hat!SOn h.appeFl€lfll, no :S4!.iS.~aJlilE!!j lI'eJl)'- Blame i~ en ~h{!; EfJ.ank 04' ElltQland :6t!dl tlil~ ~.:seff iis omiow.·, YeB. I ~I bsll~ i,s Iha rig!irt !ifliiE'·to geoi IOU' I!lf 'SterF '!J- Thoro are pl!I.r,~II!lI\;! '10 ~i1~ ¢c1J~1'1! sibulafkin, IMGSt;jJf t11l9' Stmlll'g rise I\onllhe ID'Ilef 1.'M's to 1,'69 wacS lueted Dy. expecta1Ion iJil ~1te: .. T!latcl'1li!f ,calling 'fOor an " et1iOii!. j!;e,. ~DGI1! ,B5- she did,'he pound to!«t ,4 Cl'Iii'\.l~ Th~ ~M ra~ 'froFJ!1 '1,0] w'a,s Msi~!f in !j)~Qcti!l'lf:tIn erf ~ Wfl5!aN,atwe '1,ilJtrny jr,j'IOO poll~, f'!!PlY I!lBn!l~' IiIB'ile II~ II WQ.flOe'[ nM'i ffiil!l c.,ems .1lTt8 Ste-lling wiu girve B\!;!'a~ IhiJi. lillD2. Twi!'l: !':L'lImdf; i ,;;itloril'lt#l nmtv i~ :tl;lll.l W'e c:-orwiF1oeo 'itIil1l ~Ilro:N: ~ ,ar~ '~Iiild to, c.l;irrent ,e~IIl'i:i>, T iji::. I;:,II'L t:ia,:r"ing ~ltaL i::lluJef6 IkIllQ!'I' W!'!@;'!, li::;l'g!:,liI!1iI lu II~~" fU!:xt merrel)y 'mha' WiNe kif1lli!:;i Cibfl'l m raJjooo , i lE1, ,dhiallll;JBS in evslills ..

Wu htl!i'iB a~laiJiH3d 1Ii"IE!' I .:;r(l·oo ~~t p-rQ'iJuoo tJ;)I. ill. ~anQ.le rjjJtJSt se its bLij,Ii'ig1 t~liT.Is',F.lg~n. art!~ ~rtl!l!:!' ~(!!1 ~·9rin. lam aiso r:!3C· omff.lI~ndIng·to mOOLblf.!l-tmmID~ ~o' :5Iart e.<ic!JFfli,detiiflg Dollars in olJntl~a.tit!!Il! 'D.. ~h.c: 1'1'1O;!j1 pc!\'iilfli1yii Il,Ii;'JIll. 'U~ UII;: roHiiy. "lit; JI'Y wa'ru in ,a $CQuen~ of fJve, The WOlf!ZlUi4Jll{11!r1riiJ IIlOW de1ines. ~OO risk as ~ pD:!i.~;ibfe ,2nd 't:~ oolitom a.t 'i .'77'5, blut ~n 'I!ha~ vie'N' 'W'fll:.,~.d(!~· ill ~rKm m.;wo ro 'Ii ,Sj})D., ,~t ~ee:t, i:ealril ". ,t;f!a;y3i'~. !S,w*nts will 'Ifid ,ilI.lutl ~Ei!OIiI of 'Ilhe' alterllltrnvee. be.bw, k!. our Il'agula:r r,e~r!il kDow, 'Ire have been ,«aN~ 'l1t:rl tCII:la'f's :fIcl~.;;! ~1.iI) ~Ir~~ I;l~t I:Jcr.;~~!~ ~"'~a,~ ~J;}1i ~~1i rC~~7.iiifJit;rC~h:~=ict"~. ~ 1~e~ deliiv0d Hiiy projocrlng mM .'"'Iv. ~nte~paJ1:,o ·t1!le·Vo(Ij.;Jer ~r'Qp., a1[lIlr tlilat b:nler. i'£!io'£!reeL irlhe· 1_'78&1 dbjell1~ 'WaS lunl1 i;lr n'!'ltn ~ ~J'i 8 ~ rt1 ~ tty .til ifri Eli'!!J ~i!I ! n ~tJ G !Joto u ~ e Ii :i.oiI~ o! daub Ie Wfi~~illii iJly ~L1IaJi)'. Go., tong buc~, deSlJite b;).w y~ '1Be! aCOI!I1' II'1IR ~!!IDlli3J!1ilBn~als. ThIs. Ie 1,\~!I-~CuitiellteOl, TlIiIe p'LJUtI(;, ft!'f.l!;lr,·I;;illy ~~ ~fli.llt::ilrpi1R~~. 1eiios 10 bE!' IllillJgI" oo:;jriF.;h dnllring_ 2nd wave i;li! 8i mi:ij(li raJl/t. In> ,8 lI1iajDr o.S8F mwiKet, ~!'lB p'.!JIb!!~ ~srQ:I)~!ij1 (l'u~in91 ~f!(n 'Wtl\l1:.~ 1:5 !JIite of I!lIllb.rlddl8d '8IiV!hU!;i.I\2I~m..

IR.N, Ellio~1: OnDe ob.se!1l€!dllhaJi oorrDCt'ive ph,as~S.! o:r "re'lli~ me.fr1"6.~ Ei olttefi! ~pl~ ,9.00 ar,Mli}a ~l ,(jiffiooJt a~e.ct,onfile ~ f.li;i~~~nr.J:I' .(J. 'IJi';;lJ'~ t!n~l'ji!f;t ~.Ii1IIi'~fli~e- p' -IT~8 whe'[,Ei 'ih8 ~nd rna;' be o~rrii'g.liil,It 'lhe (mIt oerh:umy is t a~ whoo iit 0095 end, it '111111 tlla¥e uaoeUI oot 0IiIE! {If ~I'c Q(!ti] p.au,srifil$. !,I,I!lDCtlI are ~wiCl3i I,}'I mrF€tG~irlm5. T'U1t1!l moS'~ SlIrefg'IitI' lD!i'~J\d, ana II !Je!iEfIel8 ~ho: r!10$1. IlIk~el~, piMiI:et n beh1l '~Q'ilowed1 by' tlllQ 2nd] wa",!} is. a doubt£! c(gzag. • ~'!i\lI!ia1! i~. ~iL~ ~J!.Ii!;it!.li 111. ~iili:5 ~1,J.n.d.I,I!ie.. The i[~1. zl{J:~g i511h~ '1.1.1 'd~ 'fJ(lm ~ .MOS, wi~h ilE; dr8liWF.lLiC r\BIiiPJ~~F.li iliIgimg '~he' [i!:ib 'Qf. an X·'wave.. the link I}etweli,uli t'lro j)P.~a.poscd .simp.;';;;' ~~!3iT~, 'The ~nd ~ (!'1~~ ~ii_ Pa' ju~L L~rr,IJlnal!iid CIA 1 ,mG., ~ I writ£! 'Uili5.--, ,t::l,jlfliiiiilijj[ljlil~ - . OS! ,dt~I'1'.a'I·trialJ,i:l'/e,g ~!;IliinQ ~a, which .s'hoold be dbl{,loD.~. 'be ,t;!n(;,om..Il;l 1~;l;.!pfng har!)!, ;5h¥I~, There: I~ il'm al~I'!IJ:1J'OO~ 91Jt. tr.T::;, iJ;JQera;;i! is ~liJra :and \'I'ffii''E' b::ill'01J!'. fiJI l!its~aIID!Q,!IDe ,~eoii.ll)de'- .. ebp nW a ,trWl9., b ·.h mpllMfbns O1'~he'~'IJ.9OOe·aS!SI!l'If~.s,(!f. a rise ~g"at ieas-l 1."8000 .. The r~1 wn~~ 1hcM 'Sotr~E'ivi'e oog::m. 181,f1! ~hal' ia.1Dtl ~n!;!g of 1t!;J;;i W?Ne ~m I)~IQ, 'I!\'liIilJ'lii I$! ~e~!j:!F1!dIIPli'COabiilioo, A.OO ~hl DOW mel;D;is: !iiI.'iiJF ill. major ~UIiTl-afQcUflIjL

Th'ls: Is J/UM 1li'!II;.l r;;trl!TiI ~F ~ ~~il!N 'Q~!!;l~!!,'l1lTl Wi;; m~~eil!i ri,$l' Th'Ur5(h1~'" W{i 3f:@' net €ilt€in en ~hi) ti)oosber-,s~~ ;Wof .i;I',3\\tlt, l-IelWt® ~B 'nfIh'~8'lt,i!!lrtv on ghffrt~tr!r . e'J.:1![irl~~"'~ ::!f'l;i :!Iill ~"'I;i!i" ilill;i pl!'a~IiI" ~~ ~Iilliirl!:l' is, aCllllli!lll)l 1M I'rIlJI!I!).!' to pillpi;1in~' f.! telte'l at '~'I,'1i!ic.h to taki) $1i.0i1-1et"oifoIIPFtllit5.. T!lIJ ~iooegt sin 11 ~rru;ler can oor:mm oow ~, 10. F-JoI:..y ellt~, :lim. 'trIO' '~fi; ,!"!ilI'tm th~ .to;i"i' llck ~i"'IrIi ,atilflfllp1:io tJ'eins1a1e' n~'IPO$i~h;:fii a p1~nlligllo'l!ell'_ !)o 1Misand Y!JIII '!.'i\lllli1i1i~$ me OOali jU!3~' wrioo me: ~!J1!1i ~l"dIilS, !'V0 lIiIe:=.lIid !OOrtip.lpE'fi'pIi:i',s:;j!l'thalst!r,e~~ 1 ,$;9,oF 1.8A',lm!J!gI'lbe; ,aJA)FIiIlidabhJ msi$1a~, SOilt~; Ibu~ ~h~ 'foJIiis 1IiIa,\'elil"t inl:ernarlZ~ t:rtf;,J~ )!~. @)mOi ~!"i!'ik ~!Ii;t:, ~if~!Cijj. J;!r~QlAt ,fltlTsl!i~ '.1;;!1iII 'blfl3 ,8'l)..jJaJl'ed tJ.aJ!J;iel aives wav, as i~' willi in ~i)~im{t" 'tJawmlhe gaps In tllle,charttl,;as'~mEl'Dt'8akout artlsts arordi~ha"IT.tO~~!!g"i'!~\ei1~'~.'s'd ~ofeiilr(b~~ b~lkiin,

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HeI,e' 115l hQW W(ii 00,9' tne ooll~r ii)i/@r 11'10 11'Ii1!:g: ,~@ hours, An~rt.hC'r ,t"i:::k ~ te '1_8:1ii-1.:9~ a'l'lflu:'l.d t;ill.;~ jri!~~, ool!lil-,Plet!Fig aI rnlMr i]!idI W.3!!~_ A '~Wy ~"J re~fa¢'e ~oj)ul'O fO.llt1<W, l:)riF!g~ ine ~k,dQWIIilIto ~ ,~l60'-11 ,~60

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II mu~ n~ mi~~ed a! mimor 1Yfin. Of lhe oollw i9.~1JI:ed a Ik!w· Fm;;lb~mr;y ~~Bm, rwh~ i~ iB.; Ihlli 00'!!Sii'1mar.k :!IJ:;lliv.il)l ~I;!!<l oo~ ~ve a cf;ew ~mra·da!r' pID1!J~~ aI! ~i11G, pOInt. SQ Wi} IIDofi; :at ~ stfllill'ilg patterlililot d:tJIes, A ,m:ino~ ~gree '!ive;-wart~' saqiJ.~r;.c.a !'!ii\n~i!;i ,eiti;r.!eej ~t 1 !623i11 'ilill A:!li1.8.tod~,,;Di' if oo~! ~h~1"! nil;,!' ~~I;i iis. wscep1JtJ.!e to adjIJ8~"0IfLO rnern slIgl~! dip to ~ _621101) ar{l:ID. Thie :sno!J!I;II;I~,dQII~ D'~ 8J reoiJV~ 'LQ '1 :'!§4-1..ti~dl!:"Sn[ngl2'Qr~,!I;!a!fil\, IIlli lusn~EM t'€l!'ff!S, ~hk tft!M!a..i3-E in~!J' 811X!~ib!iii·l!::!gt of 1 F.i$O 'iMlI1dil ~piete5 th~ ~~ve-WfIiIQ ,S8Q,U)QFlEta 'fmlltil 1 .. 7825. A ieG8- ~i~iy ~~il!LiiLJli:;;; ~lJr ti IF) b~tr.li :5,Piro:i.l !iOO'i'in ~I;I' 'I-~i l'O',aF€t=.I'[~ol'J!1 00 fre!!llieveisto 'MllTIpfete a,ftoorr 41mi'W8fo\e ih..atml'l'talTI!) rlJho~dl frolil1l zt1iZ~to an :i~r,rI~L I hworth!:i fill"St,ooenamto. sO~ $h~ldl ,1't01N'$hlf~ shotJH~inI!~ ~i"tll:eg:f rVOrr.i btlfji'Dg kI,~iin9, $1'IVll,Ou!lijl'~' r,uF! tl1le ~Oiefei:JI'e (i!!if!: of ,~,fii'laJ ,OOif.~ ~Q 1.$.'360, ;gr:r,f,I~ 'iA'Or,st, 1.84- IB!.!~.f,! ~-I,Jp-lj) ~w hlg11ls d~illitel)' oolT\PliI!:1~ '~hl3 r8~ or ~J'~ 3rt! of C. S'!::t1ir..g 'Up.:JI ,~·"M~ ~~1:tar!Tl $;jllni3" MlnlrlilyM ~~ t'a:r,g€i~ ~hlM\ek!rfI' lis 11 ,S~ iQ"

Th,e ~~ il;; !nOW ,on llili)'~ pJilase et a :],ra-gg~ GBdIne. whiCh WE:ttl, :mIir:ipa1OO ~ IhQ, 1_@2 hioh i7!11ou ~.~ ahi~, o:;.li!fi~et!t'.e.flrli Ir,~I1~ .:!S ,a ~ wa~'I;!' ill Li~a9- U !;lt1QU~ endl ,at aOO!J~ 1 ,131240', ,and ~tDl,Jld UI;;!' ~l;Il!l;;ffi'CI;! tJo)" a i\alrl~ pemlstBm Smli:HO 'i ,~I).l ,5; 2;5, ,Snl;l*-ilef1l11~' !tlhEliJkj [1\EI11lS~a~e. lOll(! Ibucks atltlat at'83J,.IP~iJGablY ~n liato IN'ew Yorn.;: (Iii ~arL)" Jl;~ie- Tlhe' IF!li!?:t Iri.!fII :~uI'~ see 1.:134, MihOjjt IJ1jj(ilri dri1!Q!r!!~:f' W,t! rook ~ 1 ,M ~ 'U'I~ ~I-g'uf~tl~ ~'~',~~ D1 tna ,3Ii1 Q'JC u '~,,1i!efe '~V!J;iiGalt!f :sI);_QPti'.d~m sbill H.mS l'aiTI:DaJilt mill 11l1e I Cfige'-'it)!' of ill'!0 bul f'iijQio'EI'" M8ah,jf:l~·!'Brtrci8r,E we~ b$ i:I!i;'~81f gH ~!!i,:;te;p,pln.s ~ii;e- ¢Qrt~i~ ~rooi'l'l ~Ile e:~~edi '1.:1li4 !~igl'! ~-~t~flm~ PitO~1~, IUIilj1elJen1:afi~ !bear,s will prdbably roak fil1: '~hi8 so" caliedl ~ ~~aJfLiOO as an~ 10001'-$ ~1;i,S>8 to ,~II 00, Th!!iN!' is n~' ~l.ay ~i: ~:;Iie~flSl inc ..... ' f¢\;' '~rnl;!li" ~--lli!n6l ''_,[If'lz:f wiIU dep~ 'Ihe' ~ ~M i~!ii ,f,I, !ii!3!fe !bet tli!s~ it 'lfCi.n't ~e m~j pt'Olll1ibl1 iiiQ'i, !'F1GfG thIDli 60 1P~ of"lhi;l tUn-UP frolTI1 .7®26, ~o, 1.84 'fI;,.e ®UO'9eqUOOc1: e<~slcn, ~h_¢" jtd wtCii:.oO cl' ~1J\te ,1lI'd; w.iII Ib1lQw' 'i'~~h '!bill w"mIiii,9 of 'IbB ,~lIin,9 ~E1$iJI'e'-

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The,'r.or.e~· grem.!ins ronfinu~ ID jfl!l~r:::i.1~ oof ,i:lH~ W ,gi;l~ ,iilFi ace.urat€!' IHmdkt.,(i1ill1he',~hDrHemm'.lbLJ~ ~ oot,me'QF bii!~ ama pieCes ~i"'Q'.iIl"eJUt $:f.;WJ'8'Cit'cunr,enC!IIre,:SI!llQglIrelil:!l'8t m¥ itE.'i1 to,:5f!IU a~ 1 .8305, ),'f!'S!8nj2Y miQht liia u ~, ~~iil [j"I~l!Iio ibJfG'. il mooomJ:~I~'PfootooleL ih~,cui1lientrun9l:lIillilf,l'ltoll in i1t!U UitlJ~ ci1i:t1il:!i ::;Ugg8:5~ ::;I, l!r!'an,g.'e ill 'IDe ,~g" jm;ol:rlni} 6ne I~~ ,ga:s~,-~D' {hlit. ups'idp.-_ Ji;, lin1ll1 l\I~rtrSr th~t

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1 ,S~ 1))p liii! New "f0li:k I~I' tnk!hi 10., ~$ive~ 81j~ge~Hjrngl l!h~ !he P::;lU8@ at 11 ,a-2:m~31J all\E!i!IJ oeLild Ibe .=i ~.:lnm· ~,.;;I Wo1{II"€!' ~dilll,g a ~!:"!ii1~ ,~'hli,,,~~ ~ "'"'eNf;;!;'~ Ib€itow Itliie t~utEid ~ ,SQj"® ,~lIJlpQft, ~W' i!ill ,a ,eal,lGa' ~hali ,i!! d~ Ibe~ '1 J;l2 rendar~ IhrEl 'fot~1:O'f 3 iiCK"<l;ip,t® 'Iba

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tn!:i' only _l'I't~~illlg:errt w,a!r' ~D tr,adle !he m~ !t1~ is ~e,l.iI:!lur1ifajjin9' The' B,O. mists wil eli1fdl;Qii'.lbu~ ~t· 'r,oW i8 eif!(}1h~T <i~'. Br8a~ thfOOgh '1.@o~.gi} OfIi'i!Ilfms :!I ,1lIli{i~e' to '1 "~-~ £4'15,

The r~11i oo~t mentkmoo ~~rd'a.:f is ~'aJilifi~ Ib;) IbQfi; ~u.rdl ti1i II~~; ~iiSffilM~r.llt. It 'rMiii be Cl;lugh for ~ree.i~tc~ tOOC!II)", ~ ~ !f!t!c.:re'to my ini'inite ,dIi!amril1l, am' jaimnglillita ~,& 1.h~ brea~r ~i'S, Them ,~1fQ oobtl8' el'!i,lII3~ '~ha1. m~ me ~:a'ilOF 1ne upslda, 'lI"Gry ,~igh.I:(_ F$r ~an~, itnl;i r'I;li;r,!101;l!:r.!I;!!'ij' i'rem 1ro '1 .sssn paak Ie, the '1.062 .ate$! II;; .2:36 m ~i) distaooe 'Om i;\i;1i ed Ib~ tli!e' ,iT.IQ!,<Ie r1l\1im' 1.7a25 ro 1,8330, This Ifibonaooi rall.a. (il: _2S5 ls "tlm '=lrFlallo8t ;2!l'idl ~h!!!' Ila13£'~ ,OOJlr.im1!¢fI Q'P ~h!iji r~1i~ CPI<I!"~'!""J<I !1iIJ ilhe !.tirE?: trcii!ltll:e!" and iJ!}IIJi!llI~' jiMI~ 'e,xPfC!ilSt;ln as mioor 4tll fNiillo!eS PI' as iruli$ii i;;~pi!iL!tI pOfiI:tS, 01' ma.JD~ j\etr,auernas, Illlile il;Uftef'i~' Gon~1.id8Iioo iE'l, P;;i!1 ail: a ~i;;!;~b!!a ~rli ..... :li~ (iOIfl'E!O'!i~" M 1'fi1' I'illWffisl wa ... ~ c::ount~ug;I}!:I$.lS, ~hen '!he Iby~l!;, ~1i!QYI~ [~5-e 1'0 aOOU! I "el75 b!:!'tQ:r'e iIXlliliUllgl !:bl,\fl ~ ~::;IlmIest., !If] me oorr.efilloonooliil]iiI· ~iDIi1I is a,4Jiill'MF.llIi3'. ~~i'!!tl!iierpr;idiliw, Itnelfll,€I(;(iJQd ano(Il!Br':&c1poog ~f!e t\1l 1,;84, ,ar,e'i!IJ ibej\:!!fe tme 2nd 'W,f;!io'e' ~P.iieolio.F! ce!ili 'g(i~ F'rero ,01 IradllnQ point r;!f '';';I;;ln' in i;!J~"qIJt:, !1iill~ !!'!t:~rlJ.il!,t!,. r [;iIlIlUol' Pmt'ilil-fing, thf,l~' l!;l, ir~ 'Y©I,II00ill1~' a i])IJIIj at JJW headl andl ~a!l fmcre. ~hi;;!\n.-'i'J~. 1;11 u,',art '~or n&'W 'OCf!S or lIJ_t.eak ,Eli 1,$1 I© to 001],

The .Q~F1f1' fi~jr.i '~ ~ .:0':;$0 'l~ h~, ,~gmptc'Lcd !1 ThYCw,av,e :~QI.J~,FIDe, Slid Wf1h it ~h,e 2nd 'IN,awG' wtr,a_OQment, &Q il~ 1i'me kil".!jli!e DIJQk'h} have aJOOtmer g,o iilr neql. p~. As ~plail!Joo lbaIO'i,'~; 3, dfll:iilf:1¢1 ~ '1_e!:15i;i o!;;~~~1i;!tl;!$ ~i1,i:\l IIgjst i'0g (If an ;~Llla-r @r~~iOIil, tlii(fbimgDf' gf str0ng (::Qntii"l~i'O'n 01' tine oo!!ish tr,j;(mt locnl'llMI (di~IDft lbel'oW. ''!imam aJi",[!o !lwCIl"a'i re::i;OO19~~ 'fQr ;~~p~iili.£! tn~ '!Il5'-ry IOu] ish il'"~lirf'¢Drli"E!t:'Ijj.:;ii'I :s.cenari:o, iii~~€!ad (i! ~he f"l.lt1her 1 :~:OCt!f~ ZTgz,@ oo~t As C~J8JiliIII!O tielflw. '~~Ii!}jJOO a~ a ~i!Je:'fla!;fe sequenoo W{il'll'!! 1t1.fi 1 ~Q!I]! h~i"IiS 'Wi!! IPFCWGM a raitj'to at~Qa$~ '1 ,~O, ~eca~5~HiUhe reql.JireImElrlU:5 of ~he Z!'gz~'p;:Itiifflil, &It I am IPl..ming '[h!~nod:as{lf~ WilS'vlew which :!iSy~'i, 1hat'iiliij:i'IPi"i,'I,!l!I'ffiouu 3rl]lofa>3R.:f~E; i,'i.itm~. ~ 'Willi 00 'lootln1@ at 1,S0 ,ae lite:d ~es1jliiaJj~'!i. E'rJd!ltmiJtli;;. I) !ir181 fl:i'l;ll, Iii.a~ ~I'!'tl ,e; ~y,(:I~ drlJP ;z;~w~ ;;:II 1.;a~ 00 WliIh;:h le 2'$18 as !0IiI!J 00;, ~h e tSaas·u.;82 AI w~e" 2"]1 1 ,S'l5!D [5 S2,~ peFoom retracalillsn~ I~om ~he 1)r;hQQax .~ ;$M):1, 1;st 'ff~e- peak, J} ~he- r';;';;~t:il ~ r'i""'1I"1l mt:: ~ .:81 !SI) tQW is Qii~, ,~,:arp~ and im/jrmiVfj'., C'I:!l.Jldl be pglrIi

I _j Q~ ~ z~~, 001' too many och.il:l~,

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TII'11lr. ,~llJrH\!jlTl'IlJklul![! ~llilIB &JIfiioieHti:,r clE'-i:!lred up, '!,\'jl;lil tna s~eli1il~ts tr1i@flg'ie lilil~1v- betnQI l"lB,."aill-ed1 in a :!jf;!eo' 'l~lat' marmar. lili:e ~~-iinl;1id~ Ji'tJ;!;r:;;rlh as penfot moo ~h(l {lb!"m!i.t-ciry .ive-W!1'rJ::'Kql,J~ in iIho hourly chart, andll;:, naw ijn me PI"OC!lW3, of basK!!Jir.liIil'l(j1 IPraparirng kif ~ mililCf Boo W~C!le COII.ii"l"l:E!rtr.end lfa'iiy ~I/i;'II in ~he week, The IDflll'ar~~ ~~ t'11i1;! ~~HTII;! i'r.i1Fr'€ls&ron, .L'j~ tM~ d.!lilibioD :ff!\r'ee' scen~ gaj!il$ aSOO'ndeirM::y '01o'9r '~iim' O'~tll€i[' lPos.i;1I· 'bililioo C!uttlnfJd ,at bo;o'klw'., A. naw' pae.k ~~ !be ch"~rac· I 't~rl~~ ,o~ dd,~1~ ii;~~~~" A¢ ,d'j!;~~~~, {I.""ll ~r~ ~n fora I whi~aw ,![~II;llbn Pl.Jmctuar:€!d1 b1' falslI! D:l'€!aj;_s 01: "iDe, 1,;ga' ' S!Jppl)J1! amt!! 11 ,~I] mSistanc@' 1!Ii'o'·eli~+, TM las~ar' poe. ~lhllity of;:li 1Ei1h '~\I'~ flii"'I ~i'i' 1.:84, QS pe<ssib4l;;, bu~ ~~i1W\Pported ~ 108 WaNe- :sj~ya1JOfi. !if 1ttis [I,!Uif~ con1jlitlJes 'to '~.!;ili. jne 1Tli;W"1i:!' ~!ml~!1'!ZlS a. tl\!'{i,wa!J9' ~eQIIJlI!ni::9' afiljjl I ,~hoo~ ilm1'aofu!.!.\AdI'hy ~h:;.':;i 2nd 'W\l!i!.;iI'l'li\Atr,~I'"~ftfll'lfill ni'lr.k tti, ma.l.i81 m·l Ja~Lar,eaHaH~5t. lite ~.JJfe-ii'fi'fee'~enani;), ir;; IrrDl pJe',rr~,,,A.ZJd:;i'~I\Oe[!~ !~~ifilt;~ITIIj1I~1 jz; '!..Jf!lJ'ZiooJ, oul, !ilot 1,lm};Jn0Wt1l for ·2rnd 't.raves. ~!J~ a ,S:hall'o\'!.1 ra1J~ l:s, h~fbl~€ir 0]' all ,e-;;:plc.sWllt. oorr~lf'I!1a1lQr1 'ill 'IDlE!' tlptreF.lti,

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'The ~~Ii:!1ilI las~ iiifjgh~ ~Fo~edl m:..' pr!!llimr0ti sho:i'l.'-'IDIiiIiI C!llJnt ~~r.;.;:n!jj '~111 ~rw51Iii~lg r~ll<1lfl¥; Su, ~.f fIlW ht 'Lip W ,)'!J'i!l'I fTi8p.!i: in' t/j8' 'Sharif,:$-. nfi'i'Whr'lE;lj ~om kka: M nopili (/-]ft iOOt.!~'br'~ ~', Th!f.l new,:=il1imHerm OOll.ilnbCiliiiSidlari;; tlile'C(in50!i~li;tn from '1.8MO'1o ·1-~~, !!tAl'l{lr,;;tl1l w«¥c, '~PQ~~ibilnyll f!!ll'rlf'diHnl~frI;i ,~IfIi;;t~a.y., Thi~, mil~ ine flIlIlI·Up 'fronn '~h~ ~ ;92 ~e'tal a mliii,o,r 5th! W~''''·ii!'. oGm~'atf~ 'Nile ~.D21jled '1,$r:'1Ht~~ oJIhe 3f(JQfC', 'This min~ ,!3tHt ws;,.o. t11~~ Iba'o!;;Qfil'Tif'Q"5l;!fi ,g-J,.~ '!.io\av-I)S M .. '801f., 8Q'W;@ neadJlJs.t ~I) stab> ~ill;a m.e\y Ipea"K. s8)'" 1 ,~630, ,ahu whlohl1.tl~ '~k ~9S Into OOiiiS~art!:i1iJl mode iDn¢1'J. rrtC'I©., Tr~};1tJ~ 'ltifii~ 2fw:J: 'W.5!1!I'e II;I~ ~e' j\'dQfCha:!l :p f>fi ... ecl 'to b~ Ei"ifl!\~ ~!!i;!jj!~ ~h~ 1.!'::;;I,f~, '"f\.l:ie tnti!W''ti'!~W cO:!J!i"lt i!¢; l'Iet ¥sry 'CQrmo,rtAli'b!e, ThII! f!JD"-IJP' ).!lMitlI!fOOV do;;;s no~ Rar\!le nIi:e ,!'e·eJ i;:.Ii mr,,!JISIlt. "',8.'o'@$" Th0 mml;:Ql.',$ M~it.aij:;)1ilI Is p:;!lp~I(;j'_:<'IN l;:ili"fj h~iffiFi"Afi 'to FI"'i~~~~i"I tlll~~ !~ 18 8i B W'Q';[-e Ii"[ a~ ~'rt~"t)(I.rf~lrOi'i'" 6ut Ihen" r!i! ~ick-il,JJi to ~ ,@5:30 asloo, '~his vje!,!,1 h'o!;I!;< 'Uile ~lIiIe imp.'{:atlan~ 00 .a 200 II!ta'I{Q ,~l'l9Ilr:. Ii ~II pr'[]'iidp. l!l!i. liJu~ing opportllTlll1y fil' 1t"ij::j 1 R:HI.1 ~A1 :ilIt'R~ 1n t~1!l1'i ~\I'ama,gD ,jJ.f mil:! :Sp'Goaued :Jrd of ~e,~

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.our @1!ipoci::aij:)n {d a 1af~ doWi'l$ld:e-.rerr~~;was fulij'll~ We 3f,e IDMK ,oIill1~'k,. But ,~I!ilil'g the, SnGfth1e.fm mov~ wool IbG' ,MM. A.s ~ 5tfil-.'W~ ... ~ see:i1ario te i!I ~.@S~O I'i~::i~ ~ I19Q1i reali~~ )'es1Ierd~.11 ,1MIl not quit£! ~liW Lf ~hQ '11 . .82,1 ,.$5 Irali~ was, a nnlnOf ~I ,,"alii!:!'. IUlIi:lS me' wavs'COi:.r!it~ 1h'i;! ~e~m a ~w,ra'A}, TWi& clUte!'"Ql!(il9 iil'l 'l.t1Js, to~i!E 'Largel' -?JO ~s- mig h~ 00 ~1(U'lirt. 'hlJtI' tlilEH:I'\}'l'm5id~H'etr,!EemeFrt oo]emi;vgs 'b~1WGGI1I a B'Wave top and 8J ;i[6'1 '1IT?!'!Ie l~p '!iii::ll':f w'idBl~'. If <:I i5 W<I!Ii3 ·m~ pre.1811"eIlCe-' men ,I;II! we' need is'too .see'M ~:fifC!m ~1lIB 11,.35 ~E!8..'ktQ oonG1ud(!:tlh~j" tne'2rnd W~,lfji IfI9'I~m;l;m~ ~$'iWer" ,am~ ~hnjrdofrh·9,Smi:!i;on nhe' Wf;i.y I,JP'- ~w1geid'~ ~9e4 ill thle ti;'i!I':;;-e ~ 1I.~iJ.1.i62_ ij 'I !e~ \P,t~, 8J5tfi! \f,Ia~'~, jb~ oo~nsld!!t.Hlir,@oe'oeJti QQdi;:oY.iifld:o 1 ,m2'oF'evell 8)3, low'as '1 .. 13,,125_ But all ~h~e ~lil1tlI!l1b;: jJ.c.fnt'to orne !hln{l; 'The OO';,'~.nm;e"li:! ~ I'i~, ,ql;,!~I);J' 1;i',,"C!rr, .:i.F1d ~-p1te my r.gf,~~:} ,04' il: provL~if'l9 bu,ylfi,g o;pPQ,rilunitty a1' 1 ,835j}.1 ,?3 ,l1Ir,a3..; 'the !"f!Q~: we' ,calill.e~ect (I!fiI'lhe 1lI.p~~ is a, ~iI::~p j,II.!t5J1 bekiw 1 "S4!,jf ~ ,85 was. Q '5~h ~~ top. 0ih8FWi'!!:f!, !!i.t; 't:IJC~ ;:;!i;;!re to 11 ,a2!;Q '~ar.; ,oon SOI[~tes,

We"¥efifoli8%e"Jiw minCf wa'f{g~ 1r"ll'lhG'~1'I jroJiili 1.a~ !OO'1:oD '1 '~" '!\ihlel1j'!Niis'tiJ.lh:r~ iIJ~,a¢Qlli',E!t:'~ri ~l;lIjyst ltie'iI;lWSO'~eFCent9'!the ~f:111r,;i:! fall'Y,. ~, 1n~ d~r ~, ~~ ~'Q!i" ~9.tF!l;!r m!!y WhlCh ,:;'hGiul\;:l Clarify Uile :~rH~rm dfl!'ectio:n" once and 'fm' all, Twa, :s1~uallo.l!1i Is ~his" i betielle' 'ffl) arn IOD'kil'lg at 1h"'13 $tai'~ ,M 1M ~!:.!bj_ed .s.~'Qr,rne' ttfd., Th~ 'Wol)rort ,I..;: fl}E' 1ii.;:;; lbiJ.;!~ '1'5 iii;!~ ,gQv,mll ~ligh~iy'I!;ii!!!or@1 itt!!tk!!iS allliJ;:e. a iI~t 'The ,a!be!'Tha1i''!'e ~I ,ag!Yi~1l S lP€!IfCoot IPrlDMb1ll11¥.:sllilal '~e' (10!!~r!E ~III' GOllI1p{01il'lg a .l500:\i':-.e! ii;(~ a large, 21il;O W.a¥>EI zJgzElg', a mo'e!~ whi!"!h ~!')U~ Ihrif;1~ 1.hf' bl!c~ ~o 8!!' !ee9~ 'iI . .8S75 001'DrQ' rgy..cling, INb i~5! no, ltIu~s., ShO\lli:-'tenn B.!iI~ mediurn-1:eiirn ~radEr!;< ~l,Jhj tJiD Ilomg at '~ii!is !pOint" ,!!!~I,II!!!!!1I j.1' I nrKil (ill!!!' W,i\Ong Pf,Bf,erred ~I?Jilalif'O, cMQIlIOes of:<l! tatl:!1 ~o at ~eas~ 1.B3,7'51odi1!~ Ii:; much miJ gmaJtt-o iiIiIl5:5-- i~' tlile ~"~e5 ~lilt(li,i91i11 ,84" 1'of.get ihe progl1Q~ Cir ~ht:: ~1J1I1'I~-!!JHJt;I!J.rmH'l; tJ;~I,!'!i1;::: ~I'IB ~ilJlJ1;.tn":; 1'IfJ'")I;I, !3iP.P ii~ 1_00,

,ij!) tar, so !;lPO(iL T!lO OIX~ Gild 0-lle' aaif.i: dD\lmt~ i3mt Flfih:1\1l:!J 1n ~~~ ~ac.~I\!, f!;~.lE %oHhe m~i:"'J 'l"CIftllI.®~,50 TiI'!Ii$, i>s .one' biO'W ,agaInst tliJe ,z/gza-gl5C0.II1mio, and! !!JiKI!"e $l;!fJPJ!L !'IJII m~ OOlilleBIi:Oi"l ,1,iI~cUIl~ .l1-a:'~ ,rhu J:f:~, i~ I un.darwfll.!'. The raUl' ~1"Q!'i!i1 1 J;l2 out '01 aaEl 'IS fimDWlilO a oiass'!C ;ft~rensJ'Il_i'J' s.igJlIHI. whi_ch is, !ii1i!0~~ r,f,l11ie$ r,giii;)We;d [ ~:~ ,&'I1.;!liO'l'l GOII"l'ectlOO &, a pati~i1fiI ;hwl'ciYL'(i!'7ilyib€' I;,;,b€l~~ wi~1ii 8J 5'eries ,cd W-aiie' 9ii11i1~, anod walie, twos" 'CoOOh,,!!;l~~IlII,

II oon'~ tliilil!:. we '!.'rill haVe ,8§kjl di~lielJl1~ F~'liiill~ ~ ,S~j'!!-,

I ,3fM r!ld!.IDi) 'It!ce pi'l:iOOlbi!ity of 'tim!!' ~~'f}' .,.;~ ee, 5, p8!iC~t The OOlliiltiYoo s.l1owstlili}'i\Ia!(" bul'ea.b-1e,~r~$ WIll p~'l1iiie'f1iloat~acular Fe"t!Jm~_nOr~DUii' r:oorq@y'. n: eur seenarie of:B !~8' 81ri('i ite.f]l !l;h8;i1D r.'iJi.Ull~ plI!m[l~ baJJK ro tho 1_<!iiQ;-'j .45 area iis ~rre;~. 'Ilh!en 1ne poUndl is Ji,i$li a~u~ sst nor ,aoownslde; 3m w~w. acc@!eraiiollE""""8flI 1he ID.rolJ5S culir'!3nC~ plclitJre O'f ~ lDoollld ls ~k 'fro'm'IM'l'lQ·.r:ma:Jy$ie pef;~ed!iite, ,and one 'NOooars WIIila], eGUlOOI',I.Iil:' ur 1P!Jli.i!Jt:ll (9~t:!iJV!.ut:I·I~ wi!11 'I~ I~iac~ t(I .til)ij8r ~hM d8Ii.:ilS'lf:iJlloo <lfl ,m'Oif0FL 'Tilis Ilip.,llop IProo~, [I am talkiligl d~t is s'ilTllia.1f to 111e ~liilSbk run 'ff>Onrl

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The' looUar's 11Clit tr.aJ~r)' 'il~elJ ~h_~ ~st :3 oo~~ i~, QQ:ginni' ~ to .rnlif.Ik~ I'llQt gf [peop'll;!' i.l0li a,iilC !ret 'To sai 'l~8' teaS'!:, .11ai.!m1i'~ 'g15t 't:roa~ Il7Mnj! ,~!!:o; baf.;)!.jjl "'~'i9 i~:! h!'t',!',;")"in f;ii;;,;'~~d~" ,m;i'.!d, ;:OF i,'!' 'Il'ie' 3N1 oJ .3id'~Ganallo, lIil~n'n: b€iI,}'-!lI i'1!1lil13J1tia! €!(II b:f. ~h~ no.ru-per- 'fotrnf,lii"lpi;!' ovel1n:e ~ast ~M."D ,da~ • ete, liiUlh L~', I wa£ IWfulo ~!;.:J;;'~ ~di' ~1,,!'I~ I 'Iiiiiik 'In!;! iTit.!fKcl ;!I~t~i'I ~1l!1 's'!!!pp~£ ti'leOO€!flaJi'o {i~ a nrl!Jo1il h[g'li!!Iir (lollar, .althoyg'h 'we, h$1,f(:i it:' !bef.!1i m1h lIiIe r:n.arKet 'l'Cit Sfinrli£lll.m:e whlha I~ nrlaJi;m, U'J) us minol, In!Ii ~!lCii't-, I",O\m ~I m::.. 1h.:., li"Ia.vt .li.i'I. MI L"~:. ,;;:" i,1,i"Imflilln:!iI' tlli""ll;y :::Inril wil~

ijepeirrd,~ on lIi!o'l!!the Ibudk; perf!l;itf¥ls :Mloe~11i critic:!li ~e~<eI{l., flilJ tootmlMI d!sG!Js~1lI t!;B'1Q!,!,!', I~ 11Ji!i) Oo!!ar r!S0!Zl ,f,!1;:IO'ire 1I.;$:Nio Gurfn-o i:Ulfd08 '~fddl'na, II, has, belilBf ~haJlll 7>CI' DetfCecirl: Cha:Ii;oi;!' 'c~ " 'hili ,b',· 1 o!i'o'i. But iff ~h- DOliar h.::Is ~ ... II'-'n i.-4IDW ~ .:e~OO h.~ p!J~ .... g a owe _ ,,,,", _._ ... e _ ., _. ~.. Q"i'I'I;I """. .....1'

iN~~ If'l:!rf!. '!JIJ.""I~ingl, tlrlt:~~ ~;I;P~Qt ~ Q['~ ~i,.,IIi1h~_f 'I;Q 11.;$2"1 "e,ll'So, b.~ihJ[e hmln!ll SE!lIdi support IP!.J~ r~a.~Je~!i' c.-llbrie1" Idi~$ '1ie:5~irug 'Ijile' rQ.'f.r a~ ,Ftid-11H 'Sl' '!h8' tlm'Ilish OO'IIDl)k r:grnaJ,m: I!Jnl~5S, iJf uli~ii 'n .0,;:50 ij~ ~dI1!edl, Tlli!i~ willi fXIa~i'ie- tiTle ~,y'f.Qr.i;d~ oo:.'!;l~!;'fh~ 'Zfgza.'9 OiJflcept p~,r.ii!S and eli~ai~,.;! IPriO~ ~e~ '0.1' 1,00'.

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The l}tillar as ~ '!bill p'fJQOOSS O"f ~im!l'lIzing 3J 1i~Ii'£!" C'lPha!;le of ~. :',-,~!;l·.'.:l",~,(:lQ.rT~¢c~l;:;"'.;7~ ~~i,l~ "'i"'"..¢;;!jJi"I~(:!T ~ild ~lf~el13"t ~h(i 11 ,81'9iJ'11 ,$1$0 a~, in ~-fdailc.e wjlhr lJIie' :se~riQ ,dra!t/flllJp YQ5tQroa¥, \lVhj!Q,~h€l'~~-'Wa,'1Q,doo1iufro![;! 1..6S4Q ~en'&up,the p!J!!:S!ibm~y ,of '~uf't"o~ lesses te 'l,.M, 1ftoll; wah D~ iElte'Hala1OO 1-i~lil'lcCi It,eis~iD:Iif$lllip$, WilIlm ~nil;i pJii,pe ~i ... i~ f~om 'Ifrl8' ~ .~l'-1 00 reQell1~ low msJlol.'e:S m e ~.til) ~a~et IUniill=e!,),'" F\'!,ill ~ecli~alloi~u~",:n I'i In 81 i1UI' F:(1 Ii" n!ii :i.1'",1 rl'l rtn r ~. 'ihE'irn B ~ :SI IMt'I n. f" rii""ih:lth i I iJy I i"mIjJ ~lia!'lIad""frOITI'1li191.a1 SID ,a re-a, .aveli I] ~8Im ~n)mg on ~ha,:ji1lE!n~~rl'Fl wa"f.13 count. The I:i\lJdk. Stli;:.!Jt:;i lI"i~ ~~ :;1.1: iea!;i! 1 .. !!I2~ti ~11 Wr'l;;IlJe ,f,llS, ~ 'OOF1lS@QI;lIIlflCtJ: {i~ 'fi!ill'shin'iJ il fwo w,aV0 ~!XI~e I'l~ '1 "a;1 gO. I~ 1nD buok '!iI~ Ihroogh '1 ,El2i5 tcda,~'. "IIi'D' r.r~II~' wi!! a.n1J:Q~1:ce1lilaJJniI!f'D"On.hTlIllll:E!. FOf n1e,Qilum"re:rmel';!" 1il1a dlJ;i ~o 1I.aH!(!; pi"Q!j',ldes, o,gpl;lfliJlffillie~ 'tQI !bl;l!l Oollar~ o.f 'to addl rnQre ~Ii ta~"" il1iif~i !buyiligl Wf,lS ~1l0 at 1 J315iD,

We It ad 'Inei !".ell!;' 1f(im '1 JnsOo. JUst as UiI~O.ry p:rOOiC1:c1;l, a..~t:her b;::.;::.S~ foo·ihe,ool'!t.e~jOfi t.ill~t~! j"j!j:Il~~,dfi.'fl~r~I!!t IG, oot~ '~8iN oo:r..s a'N.3iY- The, 1;90 z~.a.g scenF.I6i:;i 'I$. OIlii\i' aJ 11;1",,1 hours, iFOOl' !belng in.'I.i'a.OO;3Jl@(l1 -aJ roIlC!l.!~!1;lomI '!nat is !II1J:"..,it.a1Jl'E. i.'i tilll3' hl,IEI!: Ii'.:iiir~ :'i 00 1#1' 1 JI:t:KI, 'frnrrn r.Llmr.rin~ kl'itflls, IRfg'M IilqW, !beaMahr all'S'Jna~i ... as iook a sooy lot. ~hOLlglil lIim ~f1 a/ itJt:' ~~ ~1UL 911t:oe~;!;fJ[ji ~ ilOJ1l~e r~ee' fJ~ ~t;is pDln~. EWt I ill i,¥;;j,~l}.,~nal!lsi8. one nll,JS~ atwa!ts giJi Iffltli! 111-8 J»;)st stm,JIG'.l!l1o~ ~ra[gfutl~rdI !,I,\[:!ve''CQ'l;Im, :;,1890, IP!lfQoot 9f ~l1e ~ir.n~' i:i ie '!.Ii~ Y~!ifll9~!;'- liiii~hrt fi~, 'gUii' Ibi~i;i ,s1I]j iklE!ks moo: a hQf:on,.lblJ~ [t [$, ~in"iligl't.lJ"lNalk. ~~Ie ,Flror:! ,qJi,Elfik lik<8 a, duok. Jt.1f1ilE!ist ,oolttlnly it ~S a dUlj; .. Thll rn,!1y ~r,gm 1 ,.j3,1"9D ~frI1iJ=!le~~dI n"'e, mlii~r '!.'i'~"'i)~ at '1 .. 9$11(1)" 50, 1nD ~fl€ill~ OOI! $CIIida'ioll i:;;, a miBl;lt' :21id!1~8' whlCtil sMtIIIJ1d '~hd eOO:d ~rl' abo'o'e, the, 1,~50 !e'!fe!- The i:!I'Qp frr¢m 1 _:831@ !e, '1 .Sc'"2elO Ihag r,i:itrsccdl 'i:'.~)" 3iB.:2 per'C€iF1~:gf'l!JiIe'ielit1re i,ip"~'frolfltj 1 ;8'1!W, 00 iOOrpOO1:~~ 1I1I1Iltir ~ wave, !lJ;lpetl,iil~' ;!tie ,;ltll w~ we ruiii8' Deem I.!.i;!l iti~ 'f:nr. or ;';I~' 1~!ii1' i<I part of ;it. So Slay' IOliiJ and 100'18'

~O~$.$ ~O' '1 .$1 ao_ Ad'dllUjll '00' YE!U~ Iml~ at a [break" oj' 1.~IBtil!1l. AJI(] W8l1.IPaJi!!il!lti),' .Ji.I1Ieiilmir:nIlt"

Th~I~, It ~tJla 'd~l.ar Ms tpl.mt CQIil~IFlillOO tiM Fl3S1!.!1!J!PI»-!ii ,oi tllle,rany lOy !Jr8aJ1:i~ ~~ ~ :(ii~4!O !h~ N,"':'ik~hrfill~h i~ net ;."I's. dr:;i!'!'1,';it!c as 11: WOIJ.!!ld nO:f,m3..lIy il!e, 00;F.l1"II~ ~ "'eli'}' fi'Mili!J!i fwtl,,",av.a ~~ qu~ ,~.Qed! ,a~ 1 ,,!!!~ ~r01l11 l ,~~OO, Aater a 'f?« h~s Cl~ (:t")riE:(iIiI'i~lt¢~, ~~I' fh~, r.!ill!,I"OO rrkk uFi' ~J:i~~d- Thr:i :!'i.!i'!f!i""ladd\?.:r [proo~e, ijm~ wme w.;t'ie ,ana~~s ar,e, poln~lngl at as (Wld'crm0 '!J~ 'tt101ii1I11IUt:z;t;,, ~ ;i'iJluiii]~' ii!I "l,!t:.r~ l\!1;!!li;!;!'! f.!'i1.enQJneHl~lI, if lL'QII.;! dDrl"l, 'Objet!1: 10 ci3if1(jj SOfJ;lB' W'8.Si!!aJCh!. lIook at 'bh!e' '!N{:fV the 1DQ1,"1-.JOJ'~, Inoll $trial average ~ln~'uILY liiCh-ed Up f1i"O~ tb0 ,AI.Jgl.!Is.l' 19S4I!iJW' -dbinQI'~ e:~ri~"gi ~e'k" ;~~rp'lr'!:'!I!iiI;;~;fQiiQ'fl\9d by 10119 illIndl D<irllng oon£tJfm~iE!n- whi'ch 'W..a~ ilMlR1JJJaily '~(iIl\:Jl.'lied by ~he' IPh~~rne> Iila'i buill rall11h~t ~ nD EquaJlln ~iS'1:OrV, Make no .mi'St.ake ,about [1 ~hi~ r~ii:i Ii;:, fig, ~1:!i8i;, ,1'.1 ,rh~ ~ I wo.lItId gi:l~ 'WQrJli~ i~ '~hQ ibyck; Ji.I1Q'ilO.5 up S plii:m!i!ige,Dn a d!3!~ atthi$,:~a~ or wa:'o!~'d~I:,!..-moJ!r:r.ifInt As l.h"" ,a.oogQ 'gei:l$, i1!t18'J ~'$ [Q} 100' (8,5ii'; '~\fil1;l$~,

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i" ( ear!!! 18uI~" lID':acH'I W~Bre 'Ill,;e pr€~ioLis minor ;!,"I,jtiI'lJl,j8!tE!

Col' sfMifer dE!gfeB 'E!fltled, a 'Ll'pi~1 '5.l,!ppOrt ar'B@ tor 'C"QI'T~ll ... @, ,~~~, ,;;1,JQh ~, 'Ifli;:-. 'O~ .. l1hG' Ipa1b1!lrn IOf 'lilt! $!id'~ is a,z~l.eg, 1.WiiiOh ;ahe:r:liH!1:1'€S JiliC81't 'tA1h'~ ~i.Il:a'f'

II I 'h ~ I patlem ef ~h!} 1 ,9$-1 ,91 ~ eo~lon., "Iilh;g dr,op .'r'QIIi1 tlhe

-'il!f~ I ~ ~, I I 1,9475 Imln:l" ~e.p ;sf"lc~g. fIO~ !;Ie. .cr.;;ih;IW 1,80 k;. ~'~;:'8rv!3

l 1 Y II ,OUr soonamQ O~ a d~L'ifIi!' !.J-'p@lg$ IQf"e'.a'k of 1.35 fl~l1'

I ~I':!\'i. l-ru.l. ~"".rt we,*,:k,. "'~1'l$1W:i5l5i, !:iLFlI a!t€rnme srena(>!'O, of 1ilrJIlii:ef' [gi$se$

'~ I tD '~J~1 gi3!i.rrs MCendaJ'i;;::~. j;..sSI,i'mi!n9 't:.~ ~r,~t ~J:;;;;n'

I t€rlli1, ~01JJff4i, th8 [!o.lI'a!r ,~.gl!Jr~ iliIQlffl ba.c~ to :aoom , 1_842u ool'Ore mOvlngl gown !m 1Eiarw.!8S"t, wlrn an ~]I~i,da~

II riiir'lr.iWl¢:i 1iJ' 11 :ill 1 FiCi T:!=iMil"' 'f"'r' 1nii!l i'l1!I!;/.. 'w:!!!! j,., .. ~, r:TL!';1;l1!l

I U-~ aOOlf@ '1 ,64 to Inl~la'8 shCf'II.~l,ioK$ .. wi~h ;[II s'10p at 1,®4!EI(]i, RE!VBrua,~ illl~ Dll'I:::'!i!Ik 01 I.©~\o 'e~ecli!ng at ~!iI;S~ 1 J3550, The oofto(:liooll!l: we' ~ !oo~iliI!JI'fQr~o o.i)rteUetil :a,.swaotac!lil· 1$1" b~a~grul are' :stiUl abs.em, 80 I~ is. 'de$il'~t!iel '1,'0 !iiXik fOr

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lil:J.;e .:fu1l8ii' 'Cl:liii!l£i It~ wtJ1j 'liltP.' iinghl lb;f i"~, lbl.!~' we pi'>I!I~f!r j_t th:1lt 'Fta.~'- W.a :ara I!OOlking ,gt i:!i pl1ienQlIi!efili)fl whe~E! , ~e:a, 01' ~$£I d'egrees, a.n3' al11lowiii.g filJllI Ii'8mjullQn~ in~ ·eM c.fbei!lf;! mt-Dt1!fidll':W~i'i~ .::!'ii~~ ~~ ;.,.,~~~~ m !:;I_~r Ol®Jni1ud;a;, I~, is, a ~hli'illimgl '$i;9hi' ~i;i' an~ne wllo !has ~liali1ling '[gt :a.ppre(:J~e' and interlPr.a'I: I~ too r1ght way_ 1.:85, [l'a'! i8 lOOt so 'fOrmids'bli3 ':ilnyl!ll~, iol" Nli:<i~ mQ1Wr iflCII' ' eYelii '11 ,87.50" (if CIDUfi"S9.; IfllO-\ij'1.\I}aI! we .are,OlOse to tliie':5Q;:;;":~]I"d, 1,,85, n:!Bi5ii::lflCI;!\, '~ 1tlIiIi!,;I\~Q.ur BJT!'Sr'8 arB' c~!;liIg

oLi~ of ~hE!' '1,I,I[]~rk ::=.igalffii, iilriw:ir.mtmg ,r~lJt1fli11 ~j ~l.Ir' ~ i'Il!OO'

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....... _.... _.'" ""'IV '. ~VJ 1111 ""' .J <JIL O!;!, u~_ro. , ' .... Uglll . -~"

Al.,'I~I:f, I :shO!!tki j~il~ ~lP]i;lif1i. H '~IIQl.!gh t!'~Jj~r~ ~i!I.k~ ~~e bte~l a~ 'reriolll'SW. ~hat :s~uidl ar'€aI:€' a, (I® I:f:p $Ni!J~iOlI! abi:'J'Ie 1 ,6:5, ~8Jltoo'hlngl '~hB :3fd 'o.'t tite .sid

~hL'l!<;~' wl~'t. some fl'fEilni:l.rl¥S.. Ub@!ifn:Y 't:ne 'CQufU,,£:I1 ~liW~, polnll~ !:Ii bl~ '~io.1JS, lbec:su:se or po,1"eli11jf.jl ~JrsimN; of ,E:lM;ruJ.;gi~I'r$'., BUll: i1 ~~ li'i;)t even necl2s.S8Ji)' to g€~ a IPrMlsa, 1Iir;ri'i~ i}nl ~lhit;. OOl.!l"!t, Th:f.l W-Si,\;'f.I stlUdi!lfM 18 Ioii)jl~a;;, '~iri'il;l cycle!!: :!I.!ft} :s1.~PGilili\i\~. :and moFflaFl~l,ilifl.!\r,at~-O!-chan913 Indicators :fiF8:t.~F1roin ~bO'U$I~~ :ai~!J81iCfl!~, Sta,~ r.ong~

"]il1'9 driH ~o 1 ,el350 fG.~~i1-d 60 ~1;Ir¢l;!n~ ~"!!he I'EIily ~'ro.m 'I~.e t ,eaSO li1I1IFI!:IIf 2MI !jl~ !~l, :0;;1) we canl ~'My aoo,1J1'JiioB ~h@'l: a, ifii1I.Or4th ~~,iis (Weii' and ttili! ooe'k Is OOM)U~i!:I'1J;:i ~hel'FiI~h ,an~ !~l' phs.8e Of :12!. FriiiliiGlf ~ivi'J-w.av~ !l~gl,i;;iiilO;;. ~, 1!1I1i1!lQII" :S1h 'W~ sl10uldl at ~ast etjuat! 'ljhi;l ~_~.iiI~ pefl'k. at 1 ,849il ~d ~~~jbi~ ~!Ia,i1I m1liKe a 11iICIll9!n.aJ!tf' l!iilg~r tq) at ~ ~Q'1 e. I~ lit ,d0;9$., [Please It!i~r,e(;lard [::3118 ttl, OOy. upnn ~ ~I~tll: ~'1 AA, ~ ijji;e GD!!9t 'auha~: pOint jij, SUsG@ptlbleto a sl:::aJ:1.e !f9'r,IIii!Wardl ~rnent Ofll~ in jf,!l',il: ~ri; '!:N a-m ,i:litl'8ns'!;:lrr (I-l;i we see me oorCK gi)l~ Dtlro.fld t .3550 iiii'iIiifiE!i1ititely,. :!1m fuEl flirst 1f1~lr.2linfi I~ :i1I hrB~k, ~nr~ugli'il 11.!5S!l. iOODl;]s!for 1fue lfiIEixt 48 hour,s; keep rtuF!g ti).~, !.Jnlill ~ ,e5 or qlld~~ijj::O:hill:::i_ 1\Jht! ~;II",rit, ~'11I0' r,t:'ft:~rilr.:' '1nLil 'ij, IiU1o'ili~;s'id~ 'I.:":lrgBt 01 11 ,~!5 e:mg ,F.I ~~!OO5 e~el' at '1.8550, The ,dowfl8il1.e i5 rllJl i!!I~~~We ~ gOO!l: ,agaln~t f~E! Illl3in 1JteA1ld. 'Y'Q1,iJ ar'e prtioob!~ I;;·ei;k:. ",,"f .staylrrt! Ol;lt 1nl1jl@, 1n~i!iil1lg '!'I,);! oellr;r;:tp o!Jlrtllf.tIo ,~In" iI'I.eE!dloo, II) s~,~. l~il,jnflci1e',!iieffi; 5ifrtl;Juldi :~ta", 10DJl b!lJ'cks., The ImarKet i~, ,d:r~g ClD~'i;ir 'bo ,8, po.lIiit l,ijtite~e Wil ~:Nde; ~ak WJii ;~tl~ if.'ta ~n-b6'ar 18B!..I8' ;a.nce.' ,;md i\::ir .aIL 1\1, ~h~, ~!~gg gil' ~ d8'18IOPlDliln~; doo't tr,~ ~h.a cO'Ir'SCtiQFl5l, ~,yo:u rni,g~1 rni3:s. Gut,

~ \IIIli"" Anaty,ol

The' ooll~jl" is., stiiljplayiFtg htJ 'ImEi ~, ,~ 'tifu8r& ls n,g r,ea'$Cfl ~o ch1m;J€' l'~t€r~1f8, IPfflogFlg.§I$., Priee, ~'iQfl 'fr¢1iTl ~he 1,.:Bi35iJ. mif1.o:r IClo h8£; n:;Vn¢ig ~ti'L9 up;<li~ 'bLrirtli<lt at a rninimum ef 1,t.:::50 ,iaIild ~l;imum,ol ~ ,851 1;), Ma)llmuFlii'~aFgllltils tJoo~~lna;tile' ~G-a.~,m!$ iI' tlil8 Duck go.es, on an ,9X~ mode at this: pOi'lliit, ~he ~1.!I3ri~UIffiI~dlliFlfW(i, 'l'.,11I1 (iFi:'~ ,!i!!'1:f''O'hl1l!"0 he'tvroe!'1 1.:S'7 a."Id ~ ,00, But '!M8 assign a! lOW' 1P~~njy ~O' 811 0Xt~oolam Oi::Cuttln~ ~t '~Is '~Irrns, $Ql'w,e' 'I,!,;II I draw ~p Iac,;JC'.l, i:!a880 ~ a plwt at tliie' 1 J85~, 'lihi'l' 0!'1!:.<' 'ihi!'1!J1 ~tI!::iI1' r~ _ Q;j!i-p~ me iMffi ,oiMi3J'df..f.l.(;l !he :pM!illbi!i!y is.'i.he ~lIaJf p$1tern 9'H~te stalinQI'fr0!li! ~he 1 ,587'0 I€~€I. wtIkl1l1 is, quitE!:;iimil@r ~o, lTt!13 311li1@JJI '[f!arlgre wi!h a'j)8(l1: .a'[ 'l-'IB .• The re5dh.J~ion af'tllill~ ~I'ID!II 'triLari!:lI.;::r'I":~bi~r:.~tfl9 P>bUI'!I(HO,iil!rop'5 ~8 'lihe' ~rialilgle.IJi~ pattern '~!ii! '~.513,7((1 iis Irmm1i! bi'OO@if" sMi1erre il::;; !~IQi!"" room ~iJ~ p;.O~ri!iali l!mJu!;lI~' rt!1i "tlll~: [plJuud hf3r~" This 'Irii:!lngl~ ....tI' It 1$ ¢!F1e~ ~erllal:ls w~ Ih€l' ~ JBiJ60·'j jfj7,OOFlSo.liif!l8.!I·OtiL wiJDulii i:S .. at!~iFille, Fi'::;";'fI~nie_ 111;9 "'ml .... 1.f.ffi1I, II, ,...., .. -- ",,:WI""i" ,""",._ ..... ~ rl·I",,,,,"

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Iii! trir:r_ns'IO. ~ an ov~rl~! I;;r j~ i~ ~.g, be. part 'Q~ eri, wedgo 'fl'!i:i!iTI ~q

'1.E-9 ro.p -W\1iIll).h ral~i;i I~r,e distUFQin-_g quesrtons .. t,8~~ leave ltal 1~61~ bill walch (!I,i~ ~Cf f1'.,

F'rid~IV' 07,100 'GMT'

ill!te I)l((t~ I jpF'Opl)!;;ed f~~e~y '~'I,Ihieh oo~ r;t:ai't tor a. fIiliJoYe aboi.ol8 'tB4:tr;; ;ru!'_,~natt,~ks." ",~, notw€l~ ~hi)!Jght,o.llIi~ and. '(t\~~ II,[l7idyly i!'1i!~.eIiic®d ib:r- ~hitl, W€iii"S~-G.8Gl0 ,jX;li\j1rm1f:.. Il ,d~¢~n1 ~n OfilE! Oi)lilkinil1: FflaME! ~(!fl0~ ou~ ,o~ it ib!!J1 it is riSky i'mI 'Ifi!.e !i,gM ot OIJIl" b;OOl.c: ~iml~ '~~t ~h,*, \'l,\il! be:a decisi'l!3' !JPS~ b~ of ~ :F.lffi MM iJ..re#k. 'we nMd (Ili'i!B 'more rai!lo'" :Prfl~3BI~ 1:e l:ii~in8J! !:Ie:3A$, '[0 Gomp'Ie-~ 3! 1I11,18-'rf3'l{e; s8qoonce, from 'Nile JI!JI!iiS .~,4 " '~,:5'~ 00 I/:m, TlilIls ~inaj iI'aIll\f ShOlll!:! Ice' OOrJil'p~-~ .ot ei,w,aIfflS Ijs;e!t, ,iiinr:1. !hr:., ~Ir:z;t ili1iCiht ~ ,fjnci'~:fIr ~he ; .®451) :S~j:ja In F.moPQ 1'fiil'by. Sh~ ~enn ~radef"!i; woo hmre gone; 8friioFl will jpro.'baDty 'rundl 'I"i~~1 ~!.lIli~i~~ W' ~!J'liEl~' at 'liiLi;!i ~ .~.ro t[ft:1i:1lr::1b~T inl ~he (:1:;111'" Ii:iU~ lit:> (jl€iiUi' 1flat d"tor~ ~Ck8 15 '1miE! IifIDIT:i -darugf!K!ut;: prfipooic1ioFli '1n!U:!)'. Le~E; ~Bke' a log.&;. at~he'liT1e~ium-!:erllll. The ~feFedi saen.arlo"i)~ :;Ii !"1li{;ioii!;iI!I-[.e,11111 'I',ru~ bD I ,~o~ I "st1 i!;; ~~l[li h~~_ Brul i~ i!;; i~erMingl ~tn:lGt~1 ~bleln$., ihe :;ii'HJ;1illa1S $iJen~rio Q~ ,1;1. '\'!i~~~-[tfl;e C' "':;I!1I';i ,i;iijl!$ 'fo.r 1ilJltl) r 8"1,1,1 hips;ilW '00 ns 0 Ittl afiOli'li 1b8~n '1_8~OO an.d ~ . .:83_ TIi~ 1J)jiiifl~ '~ ffiiliT1!)!11!OOr !jJ, 'bhBit !!l! li;;rudk ,ot 1 ,:a;1 M t"lJil]fllme. aOO:r~, aJ! (II' [i1-e 300v8 :and! Is ';}f$f,~ ~rls~,

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ra:I:i ~\f1,~~: m~t ilJvV'lOf;'S ,~t'fj,th ... l~ d y(!' ;!:}U!U"J' til:;: 1:~'£!'U'jil',f ilJ'i!"'j:rgc

d1\!l'~H: :h'J< il1d~H:r.~, thl" fa['i;~',~ of (:Jl:tI!d:l'ic.;:iOIl1 wh:i(:~ dr(lI" OOw. ddig'hied itr. exjila#1ing to oofloog,l~ ~ wnoc.h th~ hltve'proudly l.a~ghJ t(!o oJhersF ,~nd wn~c:h tl~!J ,h~w' wooen:,r ~hrrud ,1;')1' I.'hr~, £rdQ theJrihr-ir; of ,thcdr ~i:ues. Il

One ,of ~h-e, '~Ji))t3.~:e,X'Cir~irrb,g de.ve:~[I1)~lllemt~ in se lence :in recen t yearrs :nas, been the dhSll:iorvery ,of :IJilI1l0¥aitive le;c:llD]:iq~Je8 fo.:r UlnraveJI:irmg: t'tl.~ :S!tnl:ctUlffi ,of ··dis~r1;, This is :~ilte, i.rreg~JIHr sidle, o,hlat~lte, tlle dliSO!'3i'ilI:irnlllloLls and e::f![,atk sM~ - chaos ~ whicltu has ~lwalfYS ba:tfled. $c~e:n~. Cha()S ~,posed, pmb11erns ltlbiifhfli,¥edef1.ed,¢..."'to;:J;lbJ~:li'h¢i.J w~:y$'\;i!rdl)Js~~ tLLi~l~~ il,'.,:..an Ih~ ~d lltl)id ~~ii~iii~,II;~] !~<ie~~e- ~t~, v.rh~r..e ~ha:os 'b~£i-1!~"

This new li.n.dGr:sn;:mdmg: ef '~h('; ··Ia:w of disorder" has boon, duibbe-d the "theory or chaos" 'O:f:'·'ntll:l~I~nGar dfym'im:ics·'. ]l is, a :r'ast gMVing '!nter-i.

. .JI-.." .. - ;1-, - .. ~, ","' - " ·1-- : '1'- ........ ; J," ci'o.'oi'w, I· 'II· , -."" . ""'" i "'.' -" 'f. -, . oiil..." ,.fl-. ,~..,. ul8cnp, ,lmUj ""x.p uu al~,'UIJ,~ Q:~ comp ex, S,),Su;:m:;;;, u .:.JlIs,l[]!:g .r.ij}D1 ~"~e ~~Uer IN

eoonorniC$, an1J from ~he bea:ti_Il,~ 'liJIUhe "nl!nml;ul"h~ 'W ~he c[:U~'~Jilg ,of em .In'the nig'hways. WhorL acic:n~'uS'~-a,spcak (if ihooa. 'ilh,c,-),' rutCi;lIil_CiI~I~,(l(itic ~,v"iOT. that :;;(1P'_(lJe::'ll"i"S to be randem blllt is not. Reeent dlsceveries are chaUe.ngung: vonverntior.ti!lil, ,ap-l)ruaC:hes to .rillldorn,-seern~l1ig: pliieJ:1'OI;]leUa"

'w·,ne esSel"liCe (Jf nh~S :~e-'J:V appn;1'a>eli ~{~ (:~iU$, tJi a~~(iCh ["OJ.' ~el'lying lifi~tel us ,or a k:'~[itd ~l~~ h~: ... ¢ l~!~ ,d1~!l) ... er~J ~! a ,'ti~u:i~)' of t>1;)",mi~1.S'~.Y ~~dt!!!:f!: S:,),St-E!f:l1;!1:" Sdenlis!l:s S'~u.d,)'ins ehemical 't\eaC"'~i<!it!:s" wildlife :proje;o don:;;:, and electronic ,citcuh:;;: nave '~mmil1! thal these s:y~h:':liru: cam 'pif'OtIUlct:

S-trealns 'lDIf d~tf!j IlhM wl~M, 'rise nr.~d fall as ~rr.aticany as. ~h~ stock ru~d f~.n:ex markets, ~]lrn.tC"ilJ~.~]lg: tHult ~oGy ma,y be gove-moo by 'dle ttde 'Q:f ~~,chaQS~".

'R,ece§ll f1rnldil'!igs, i[!;4:UCiille 1iI:J!0l;t. even ln ~'1iJ:e most :seenti'ng~~y ehaonc 'p1'OOOs~a. '~lwoo is i~jJWflYS iI!l :time ,gc:o:tn~~i~1 sl;t'1]C!tlilre~ !fhe.:ro :~s ().rd.ev '1!tl!MQ1ll'-tading 9.'S, 'tml.domni'J'~!lL iI\1o 'maJtl'IJt whrut ['nil ci!JaQibc- p:IlteOO'I!lte-!!!<m! is, lih'e belha,v:LUf 'iLibe.:¥l1l mE S!lJm-e l1'ewly diisoo-ve::red ~aw5;L [i:I!aQ~ has 'been :foolild 11'41 '00 l["hl~U:U~'OU!s, s·~-a;b~e and, ~he faetual repre~rn"ta~wn of rePlJlruty, 'rhe neat ,SQh:!!~io]lls of. ,d~ical science's '~detem~iritis~k ,pro:ba,bUhy" clmm.pioo£(i, by up]a.oo amt a long ]irne of science 'tr;!Jo~i{1,e'i has 00 ~o.ng' (llQliJjj~mred nu~~ w.ay 'W(; ~uoit ,m :untlllfut: limL. oo:~y 11:1, :feW' :SD:ull rememberthar '!JnlQ;!I"ly., ,~~.m'!!:I!'r~ysrems w~to? ~e. a'Ib¥~tiot1!!S, Or!b' ,iii- f~w ~~~]I ~~w$ti1!!!1..d th,id ~h~ 'core {IOf :f!!ilitii!J.·~ 16 non-linear,

,[Recent advences i~ limd:ersl:audJing chaos promise t,o modify' t'nrut, l\crng :n~,gl'ocrt. "The h-earfl], ofdlaQs in Jt])at[~maUcally ,aooo~lSibJ]e, Chaos now ~Sfli,g'G;S Ule 'fl!iiJill:"Gi as Finne w~n gtlili1Jilay,. J!:U.!ilt t,p, acoep~ 'nJh'e; tl!Jtl!Jre, on-e must rli;.':[.U!l,i!n~, I~ UIl,lIIj,.':'h uf' ILh~ rJlifk~ •• ~ I)lhu~ d~[~n'tlli itO'i:iII¥J."L. :NI4!I:y;ti\~ ~, biuiDgi~., =

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c:'lI~:!!.oIQi.sig~ i_~ the .sc,p~:ciitt'bc.t' ],1980 hS"Jilc of ,N,iU:JilfC m~~;!J:z:iinc. Th~ impli;;:.a-

rlen is, clear: It i:-:, nnw iii tii!lfiE': 'fOf :a p-.Rt:lIdi:!ifiil ~hiif~', ~ ltilil!ifiS!~~~~i(1lfil in O'I~ii Wfi¥ of Ut~nkim!: of ,mJld ~ook~:n~ M: n~,e worlld_

One ,of 'nhe fi:T~1 aJre~lS, {!if elttdl~vo-r th~t w;iI] bene!] I: from !!his, new selenee :IS eCiD.IiLOllfili\C~ [Ot'ec:asHlilg" The :fieldllruos, nUJJde recem h-eoow.a.y;s~ 1m-[ witl1 the "globi!!liiz.'{'ltiQIil" 'Of r~"j,~~]c.iIlry flo:'WS; the parametees ,iiilIf(; ~al1:ilJijg '~O 'become: 11lnwi:e'Jdly. :EOOiil(i.t.W~c fOliUca;s.,tiliig, to prlJi~: l,tmildl,:y, i;i!l, :iiafbi~ 'DTlfl1jb!l12.

,StatU ng: from the 1970'~~~ ~oon()mi(; rOT~~stinll has 'lb~gjJ)n. tit) resemliile the 1i!1anTIeu [b,Y' whic-fii Ii!'\Bteo:ro[ogil~t~ ~m,ctt mhe '!A\'Sa~lh.e[, S~~. (it ~hl;:llj!l~I,i,~i;11 bull. ilII~i;Jilur~!!.'l1 milllui~~u~li;I.;1il ~1!;i1~H~)jl~ - .u~l.Mk:b - ii:LU~~.III~ ( L~) ~pp.roxim;l;tc the :n1cc'hi.l1liics of WC;;I~~1cr Q,1i" t~ '~o[J,Qmy b.:r ~l+ITJm,~: Q'Yft mE"~~Ulremelil"!;' (!If "initial C1)l1it'H~~i!)'tli~~~ into proj'eCJilOJ1<1i;. of future tliiE'flli(h:,. n~-rn are lma\l\o~dahle &umpHnciITr~,rnjJs dilllnng the proeess; 'mQdd~,ers hope that. this d:us~:O:DiliQ~s, are kept 1:0 a, minimum. CUherwise" '~he model is fin,e·-, turnoo Wllti~, '~h.e ![j(Ji5i:r.olble q:lI.!ruui_ti~. are wh1rno-wed, (!ll/U or lille S'Y8~.

Th pt"':"''-'I'[pl''': W"'''''- m'!L'~""''''' "lin, "'nnrnnoX;'n'COiiLrt.t: rne;'-·'~I.iI""'li!Jeni '-"'~iiIJ,'~,"'''~ieJ.1fI·';:,

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··in~lill.U ~oudiitiQtl;g.~~l' anJ. giv-e11l. i31I:l 'I.!.!ndei!'Staudm:g ,of the arr'~k:aMe natural or mathem~~~cal laws, one can. ahv~ys C4I!lcul!Methe ;;Iiwro~im4Mle beha¥ lor of me syste:m,." o.'I!1I: ilh~ 's .acatdil, wit R.~~lH discoveries in CllOOS: nl~oryhav~ b-rolll!~d1!Jt 'out the f~il ~a(;ie$, (If Iih~~e '~~noor SiIi,PPosi.tioIilS, into '~lll~ open,

111J any :se~: of ~llIatlQ]'!~ ,d.escrtblnj a dJ,y.na'lil1:b;al S.y~~:e:n1L;, :i:~:is ,as~l)Imed rJ1iiIt iwI ilc<c·orn,iilfiOC wi~h. :~inc~E Cfl:lJj~-i:lillHl-{;froct" ;arg <;: <ch.«iil;_g,C5 iF. F!i!l~"~D1iC~~m 'CD!I!I cause hl!l~~ chaitl!,ge~ ~Ii ::l: !l.y!1:te:tn_ S-iimiJrndy, small ,ch[!IJ~'-es cause o:~~y small q[])mrutitati,Yfi ,::nrljUSttffi£fiJts, Recent fil1dings '1m the study of c!&'a'l)s proved. ~'h})jt. wrorIJ,g, Tiny dli:ff£;ffililite5 in input OOl!l:~d. q)l]~cU:if 'become (~Ym;- 1Aihe'hiflJill1~ differenees t~, OllltPli!t ~~, phenO'linoenoo ~~ven. t.he name ~~~~,Cl:s,h~~ve dellend~noo on j_n~t~al cautlitiuJils" (S,IL}]C). In \'i.reather fforeca~ting, meteerIIJ!iogh'i.:!i' Uln,. ,_d.Rll!lt d:~ oo-~JiIiXi '·'ButH;.-:uiThy nuf~i,'= _, ~iiL;;: !!'-"!U!Jull.«=iuJtuii~:iJv,t::: {;oti.(;C_P!, tllii!~ il.'Dil;n.;::rfly stirr.i£IIg t'ffilCi ,ah- i11Ilhc, Amam-.n jilltl.1Ig1e (\(iday CiMi hi:i!'i,i',~ :~ '1friI:ll1',€rriil'l'] @ffoc.' (lin ~'Iri@l w@'.~fl\!~T' ilil (i:ll']I'Follfll ~ n ):'1' mOIil'I'h.

Eillwaj[{Ij Lorenz" ~ weather forecaster who lives in Southern ;~)di~of'l1Iia~ d:iis,orA'ered. the Bu:~ted1y Effect. lin 1'961 ,afft'e,u rnaki.n-iS a s'~i.g]n ~1'Or. m typing' Gut the in[Ma~ set of' ,c{mdHJio]ls :in ~ computer stmu'~~irnn of IJJe WQ'rld.'~ ~!1tth.o,If, Art'QIf th~.s day; LQm"<C'llZ, concluded t'hat :hong-:irrur:w:< ''WeiO'~h.~' K\l)~~~ill~~ ,il:1: 'uts, pit.e'Sent 'fOI.'m1, must 'IDe ooomed.::f.: .Alta thfbt fear holds. ~fil..e'1' t,oo'. 'for ,at!],- ~(ltn~'=ite'rm economic fQree~t:irng· •

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'-nl~ BIlI~t,ed'y M~ot ~s tile cu~prit In weatlrle:r, as well as economles 'I;O~iWS-~:ing~ oorta-llil ,SlSSl!l.mpt~Q~.s, am ~iJjl{~n 3Jt thG! SU!il1lng po mt, La'D'e'lsltIJl;:'eIIi ui~iti~.I~he ,u.ul!i,!b. ,i:iIl!I ~;n~t:i:!i~ ii:i:!i, ~jll:!>L~1lJ:iJ!J~nts ul.' :!i.ii:fIJLi:f!JI.~ci:!lil ~il]rl,lPi [n.g ~;tm, provide, .B1!,l;i '~~1~ '~~ ;;I!~W,:1I.J.~' 0.. l~un1pru,mii~, QrlIC ~u' $(m;:JU lnnf: mof!e'Ue-u, ll!m~Uy f'(!lrge~' · • har 'i I' LIii. there: mei!!!LlUJrernell,,~r;;: can never he'! perfect ny,' ~X:liI~~tJ·. ['lii!ii-\'v5t:'lhly". errors and uncerU-aiIilJti,es ~nultl!ply., workm~ their wtrJ,], U'lPwarrd.~, '~hrou~h a diL~in of ,ml]p~~:fiC:Mi,Q'llS and re,plic~d.ons renirle4"[ng Ute result ,prnQtic~lIy melmi~g'~~;.~" Aliter Ute gl(:ibalizl!bth;m oJ [lJlol1ie~~ry 'I:lOQ" eCOlilo:mb; modelfers ~t~ 8~.!IlJ!Iihif1l.y (:onfroo:too, willh v.a.s!l:ly inc:masoo rrlJ1llil[lI.iui(if··oond~.T~'on8-' ib(~' tr,Olck. And a...~ t'h~ i'iil;lmn;ber (l':f Gotti::H:~l~ns increased, th~ irnJteru:a.c!io:n ~ ilio,getliler w~th [pQ.ellti~1 f'Or' E!H'(!Ir ~ i_i1i_;CI."e;,t'~~. E!x[)Q'n~ft'ti.ailly. '['.El~~: is w.hy eoooornk: i1IIlod.eUin8: can be 80 'mad.d.enilngiy- ff.1,1!~nra~:i~Hg'-

The looo.nz]an dfocl: O:IT '':seJ1S~ti.¥e depend:eftl,Qe IOU 'uni'~'~al. ooftldli.tions" ,Cl]~;S,:!:Ii wid€: swatlii. across (1;U.r'&ViBry-da.y li:f-e. Someene gets stocik::un IJte ~~~l'~],b; OIl! -nhe way '~@ me, aiqJ!!Jn; he: mi5E£5, itrJis, plane, 'Y,i'tir:roo iC'ileIliUJl!Uny Q~·,P.;5h,C5, TJ'-"CIC ,~N i.CS5 ,dr>i!i!lP__g~~c c]O;;!ilJn]Ji~C5\, '!but d1C :pi.;;;~;y;~ '~!lP_j.i!ir~,:;;. '~c sarae: small [p-eltl!l.rh::1:tion!l. b! OUr -d:}lji[y '~i:r~"'S '~I'aje0tory can h aV,E" ~.~r~€" conseQfuences.

In eOO_D1crmiiclS-. ,~, in :~~fe; it is abo '~rue 'thm ,dh!aun Q[' ~"'~nlts CM.~ ,M crisis POi11ltS,. rnagnit)' small ,ella..TI:geS (liut of propornon to tlir~i.lt fate 'vili~lm_ l.1Jt' b~l ~UJL r;.Ka![f~.pir; ,b, Lh~ !S'eT~~ Il;Jf~!l(dl P LI:~\,.'lh[{l~~ U~ ,tl;!l ~)ht>'l,:lll~ N~w York stook :rr.l,a.t'kot .fU=,Lliii"CS il1dex ,i.!it thi! d;:J;ifucst l~o!U:ii'" of ~hc ci~s-!h of Or.JIlolu'2'J!' '19~7. 'U ihflSl, ~rll ]:lI1I:~/j;]y crud~'I,,@(j ~O'f' h~h~'I1Ig: rhe wi(je-~I~;re;ru:l pa;nie: it m;a'!{ 'narve ~~ved, fne worM maItets from, a more ca'~ilimril:OlJJS [iilte, This sensltlve deperuJe:.l'!!ce, may ha,ve beeJil the CI1U1je O'f the ollS'HI ~[i Ih~ fi[S!t place, The iniww drop, 'cau~d ~ computer IP~OStafii] too i:!j~~e ,a ~e.n o:n;let·, w.h~,cn tr(ggered another, w:rnc:h set O:IT the next.,

I

Mos~ people a~sarllne that crisis points like til]!!: one are f.e'l,f ,1IDd fHI' in, between, in dYll amic processes, BIJlJt chaos study showed tnat &11..1,(:,11 [JOlliits are ,E!;v,e!IYw.he,;;f!', In sy.slH:ms lUke ~fh.e eCOI1lOJJJ'ly ur tile w~lUiIt:r, ":s(:~,!;."j..iJ~,U'i,·,t;:! d~, )lldl 1Tl.Q13 on .hnliliill conditions" W~5 ~ iElcqC!i:pab.~c consequenceof rhc 'W~y ~!'!it~~ I p&nern,s 1nfu'!1wine ''WiEh, m!llet'-d even d!!."~e'lfi"J1ijfil~; mihli" COIIr'!ii:!.'> nJ~'llle lalise oaes.

The I' ew Y'OR: Ttmes rlescribcd i~ as the "financial eqaivalent of 'w.ate,J' Hawing uphill", At the 11 :.itht (Ill" Ule oeiober 19r&7 pmn:&(; .. pnces ol ft!I~wre$, 'OOrrl[r:ac~:5 and tbdr wulcd'y~r:tg r::~lJ.i ~y ltar~ilrt:ts were ;S0eIJi j,IlIovm,g, an pr'C'C:il5eb" the WD'Qlig dh!;';otion, ,L'l:4 tlll(': 00 np-ute:lI'-CQ:n~l"Q[lledi TiEl~;::d:iMlihl,:p£! broke ,dO\WTI in die f~(~~ nit rapj'rl ~whll~S:_ THle: wildness offered ill vivid 'e~ampk of 'how large ...... scale beJ:unrior ,a,re s'l1trt~d f[,011 , me' II C l}cseopk~ d~la:!~S of lr90,mg:, As, S'[OCk prices begalii ~ plummet, tliile tenno]i. h.l~ no be8!rmg ruo mhe gmnd tme.11I,(t.R[ofblHj]get deff'~ci~s. m~:eresl 'r.:Jres, Or gOlJtmtnenl.a[ polE;;;:)' _ At ~ha1i: ~]me·, ··selliSitive. dependence on mitiaJl Q(m<JiJtiil)i:l!S'" was me :s.t~ie d~~~II.uin~ul of (hI;!: fOlll!l1lt'i -'01' ,iJlIis[Qi"I!LllLl!;;-of m11Iirn:~~ ,)'f ~]lIIo::JlrO~dI~.",_

['Ill eeonomics, as well as iIll genetics !ild fli!lM ,c9Yl1lamics. 'hY[l!(1!l'fle:8~~ tharEa~oounJt 'fof' I~le., fil(lotlHMti,ons UEii a S)'&tem a: 'e d.irvided into twoeamps, One ca'mp arrg,[l€'s tham: pbE:.I11omteua, m1JS't be regulated by ~~ demerminisric mer;h:aliiis..m, ]n ot'ller wortls,t liflle.arc,;u!lsc-a.nd-effeot acc,")'u.I~~"kjoJ:' most ofthe beil1a,vror. tne o.,ther ,gml]p IfIIS.~'tS 'tlilflft processes are 'naIl!JrnUy errarle; movcn .~uL~ ,ili,I(; Lh~'1~fOJf(: ,;!u,!I~i;:.(]! b"y Ili!!.~~ly unpredictable ";lliYh"QIilJlTICJII~:..l~ facto s, W~t.'tjWr2r' dete:rmmbtk '!4tend.I;!'il'C'Y·· - if :pf.ese!lt ,m.t :.'Ill - wHI flllp."IIiF.';'WoR": hI~ c,:ulcr:~~'II~d i1I!.I[ hy randora iflLl'ttlJlatm.oIii~L 111e choice was ein~er.: r( 1) del,erm~niscic rnathemeties produced ste ad y' beh;lJv:loir" 0'1" 0) r,;_u~dolll1J e Je-rrm] nO:D~ produce nmilmn. behavior, 'Chaos CUlts across ~he hea:ll1, of tlll,j deOOft!- It has been sMw,Fl fl1tat what loeked ~ike 'randol[1 [behavior CUll, IDe prcdlUced! !by .;sim(ife. determensne models, kn.l whi:i!1l, Qoh~, lik~ (:~:lii:lLb:: bcli!Ql,"!!'w'r ;!l;ClYEiU, hi!Jll, ~ ,c,Xqlaisit-e struotll.l.i\e; yet ::tIll)' ptJirt of: ~1i: call 'Ib~ iIrul'tlngu:iJsih:':! Me f:l'o:m. ~~noi!\:i;':""'_

One: ,examp e of thar 'exqru~sit,e Sl[1[J)[;tl!lre" is what has eeeeme ,kfllOWlli as "tnlcttrlls",., WUJii;CiJ~l means "self-smular", S e.!f:~s~mibm~)' is sY.mI]mt."'-

- I 'Vi " . .n ~ 'm, ". ~.... ..-1 '[Ibm" !'

~J:J i!1'!.,;f~ "~t~~tlLi;:) ~~t Q), 11K; [~t:]m, wl:l.,;s Ot)!n~'i.lI, [I)), ,u~[f'io..b~, fy~,ilWJlue~' . t i1ifi ~1iI:5

'I!.., 'II.,';;F" .... >II,-F,· -..,', "..:I[jf"!I." - i' t, -LI' L~ .. l" '10""0 R" ,

v. 00. K ,r:i ~ t::u s. ,(:; m:'i:~ \....fiai1(;... rut Ii,], ilLr'u_nens" en p ~n _l!ii!])~!D, ~.tI! _,'" t Q _ " ,e<'tl.f.-

• • '~-'. i1' n ". ...

~I'! ... e fif(1oCe.~'~ nJip..l':'he!-l }9(~m!i;;!ii: v,~nn'iL~ il~lmr.iFI!tton_;, m 'II mcmaJls; ce:Fml!li patterns

are present 'inside rnf~t,ems. 'Ihe recursion does: [!;Q~' only prodl!Jce !)imUar ,~,et~i~;S. fU finer and finer scale; i~: also pro~liI,~ ,~,etan W.~~[ll oerllbW OOJISIt.t.rnt 'uru;~urerne!lt5i a'nd dliflfraotiO:Fls wil:hin eettaln ]p-Gditems • .IT l;mnsfoj'n}~lti.o:nl :L part oHlIi-e process, rmnsforma'[[rQ[u Is: rejp'ta~ed at. smaller and! srni~UerM;lIile ' "

Tn ~~w, !!1.eXlt ~e-w '¥<I1!:,'i'r50. 'L~f1i!l.c~aJs.'H 9_i':E. rol!.n1l.~ to beoome the rntcl~wol'd

~ ~

m economl c forecasting_ ]~ is, the phenemena ~ih'l:l~, will e",e:E1I11l!a.~t ])fO'tjd ~ a key to lIJuderS-ta.ndiog non-linear dynamics and, pe:r'llIapli snbseqlU.,e lt~,; opentbe (ttoor ~oTeal, urn~e!'Sm.nd:urrlg of: [he. dyJltELlllics 'Pnl1e eCOO(Jm~\e:S o:hllle ''!.IN! rlld-

~i,~tab arc the baaia of iE~]i;;),t~ '''!,va., ... ·,;;; TbGo,y, The c{!ln~pt c,J '~C'..!iEl:~~'@ psrtoms i:lC!i:'OSS finer mild 'I DileT s(~}lh~'!!i 'in 'th~ ~~rr;r.;1:: ma'~,f!r was: propOsed hy RlIJ~pb N. ,EHi,Ott in 1930's, ,~[lftooatiri;g the [coi':lJJiliU~, st!JidJy rof.noo,Imeardynam.i{:s_ Hisdiseovery ~ha,t panerns made by ta~g 've'!)' short~~~r.m "snapsl .~;s. 'I' of stec .. prices 'ifll .• say, once ev,er~ h.o.tIrf, are sinri ar to pail[re·l'ns formed 'lDy SFl~p:shots of once a week, or once every rnoom; or fo.rth~t m.atlie.;r~ once a year, B.I~,Qu. 4!li:so hY[JlULh~:s'i;.tJ:d, Li~i!1~ (hI:;:: \"Il.r,~i:1LJ.uL~ ,i.I~, u.hlt ,~Ji~p~i[LU;.j1,; !J).r price f];1!i.;;t,~i90'1~ and u~,c: timhll, of p;::~s ~d, OOt:to.m::;: Q;f these: :;wing~ fo IClW certain iP,afit'e'ID . H"E' W~;;: :lI'i-mll, t c.F'f1~'il1llly eorrecr: ~ .. te_"ijt Hl'I\fHrnc,p.!iO nni chaos stmiv ~nd to' CQliifin-n ~!lteSe 'be'ililtvioF.;:;,

Ou. 'of dre JJlOS~: suggesrlve :nndliFl~, Sf) fa.!' Vl.rab.lbmL.IJ~ht abm..lJt [)y fhe~

- - -

co~,iaIOORiUon of ,MmI.delbrom: W]~ 1 H,f:ndric,k Howlthiil.tte "1' :1m, economic.'

,pro:re :SSOf at HaJ'¥8m-o, J iE!J]JilCS G~eick relates iill hi .. book 'how l[Q III tlTia'klkr~'U" had tr:rsdl to firm' ei,l5h.t ye.sl.~ of eotten priees ~)j) iihe G:aus~i.Q1il. lbe~[~s11~d eru:rPjfe_ 'Thtis ellrve, re~li'es¢Tht th" sh:lliIdlard rnonal dii' ~rilJuJti£m ofmlld.oom PllD.ces~ f,S .• ,

Thle poir!i~ is 'tk;)l~ Wh-eUl 'th~ngs 'varry, they '~['y to $t~lr near an, a,ver~e· PQi[J:~ and they :ma.lmge W scaMEt ,iM'@l!IInd the ~tverage in ~,r,ea~Qnab~.y smooth WSi.y - Bu!~: t.ILQlIInlilall:er was. Itha.vln.g (itQ success; ~ner€ was :romerihmg :i:Jr.an;ge ,~hOl!.!t 'mile o.hi!l!JH, TI~I't:: 'i,¥!t.m-e .ou' .i.l1Itli,l)' '~!i!i!l~~,j'llJm!l:h'. :i:Vlo.3l price ~htm:g~::!; wer,!;;: ~u~ ~~t11 of ooltlrnc, 'DlX~ :U\::i :r;a~:to of :im,:I!.n .c!J~&~:i '~:(i, l;;¥ff_""C wus :n:ui!: uS h=gh ;as lie ha.d e:p!'if':it.tefl. The flli!07~iI'iiihil'litJ:ill1ilil fI'i'rl rmr f:il~ II off rf~I'1 i(~'ll:'h.r i!'!filfluu~h. ThL"!. 'h:"!1'1 Cirll'Vt"!

~. ~, ~ w

had. roo lQ§I,g ,~, l:ajL The ootton ohtu:it did not ooss '~e mndO'm re;s<t.

M1U~dt~ ~t was ifilvlred ~\o' Harv~d by HOiUtth~kker. 1:0 g~ve a 't~]k ~'OOUJ( ,~~;s'WilDil.It~on of ,~arg0: :a.itd small tncomes tn an, €oo.FDom.y .. "!;\lhen ,~t! a.rnved, 'he· W,.:U;i ~i1:!i:rH(:d. to. ~~C his :flndillflgs a.l~E,i~td,y cltlUted. 0"11 the older' 'mM,'~ ~1,(io;;':k~.dL, HQI)!~h.~~iI:' ~xph!ii~d! t.b:il!t. th.iOOi? v;,r@'F'E! cO'Jton prices: h.@ 4I!~Sl) re~.fd:ed ~llis iP4I!'bHity to fri~: the data ~:o .1he bell-shaped ClJJPo''e_ :Mmufe~:lbfOt. imtaillltly .rrHlilile ~,COl]nectUOfll. between Hoo,inallir'"", c:hart wWl ~li~ income d:u3tfIlbuJtron data and other sUih,OI/.!etleS [rom, SlluJri$nng~y d~sp@rrate pl.ces.lt contirmed his idea '~!h:ll)t (ilthcr ~a,ws, with ,rjitle:r,etut behavior, could govem 'nmtium :s~ut;'ii1;l1s i:~t;; phenomeaa.

'1F.(:(lfi!(lmm~h, hm.re Uiltle to ,wji on ''i.'iJ1h~n ~JIlalyzing: sfJock" OC1firirlliri c1!fHty or :r.oreigm e,xchcalltre data, But dUlJt does oo;t mean '~ht[lt they 00 not lila'v,e ~ flJ.md~meJ[t~'~ viewpoint ,aJboIJ..!~ price changes. One was ~he '1he':~iC'f '~hi!1t $nud~ transienl changes had :nothitlJ,g: in oomrmon wDllh l.arge, loag-rerm changes, l1h~ sm:fliU""'S,.Cihre l.!tpS. an[d, dOW!11S di!i[,[ng ~ ,dta,:fs '~[illr1lit'llg: are just random "~~uU~'·~' - LJI~lj~:~UUI(_':L~bh,~ all I III l!Ii!llrul~~ll;:;.'j.~.i.ru,~_ :BI!II( h)J:U,~·'l.(:flH t;'h~u~:oo aII~ll;:. ~ d!iffe;:CL'lit m;:J.Uer ;;Ji]tOgct'l1C:r" Br ..... cad swings Qfpii.'kc~ ever mQIl~h~ O'L' y;:; ars ;;lire· llleoitlf'mlhl't'",;fI hy ,riI!'If"[iI m:lK'..MI-f'flC1'ililim i'C': fhlT~"j;It. t~l'liril!07 of W.lIIi'!L':. m 't',f'flP~~~'i'nl1i;!l, 1:0 economists, these are forces t'h:IT~, should gi ve way ~n 'lI.md!e:r.starLdiRg, snd ~'he~f'{tlrt", pretllicblbil:u~:y.

~t di¢IiJO't(,1[)iJ)" hlad n'CJ' plaee W the 'fii1J~~!il,g,~ r(Jf:Man£:I.e~h(iOl!, ,['n£<teaiJl, of M;par~tin,.~ 'dn)" ~liln~~:¥::; :f'D:'~m ~lil!Y 'bl,~ '!In,e:,;, 'nicS sc.r~m~ 'lDoo.t1t1. them. rog)ttb~r_ :Ei~ w:iI!-I\lIQOIDrliif!l: for p\!¢t~mfl: :p.Q~:l:¥l Q:P.i2i ~1i2i ,o.T';l'!rnO"~.h£!r" 'liJll!!, ,across

eve~Y' &CaJe_ There was :s,~mBt~ ~ill '!foillved - illfJ~: a syliJi1litJfltry '[Jf~dit nncl.:rr~,,g'tli~:

O[ to:p lrl) bottom - 'blJJtt ra~her 4Ii 5ymrn!Je:~ry o:f~arIge scales neiing s~rni~:~arfly Ml i:lP ed, as ~srnan ~ ooes. A tpartl eu I il!li p['.r~ !Ctlanlge was nlJld(D:m, ,and un,:pF'W~,C t~, ,ijiblc hQ'JJI~, uJ~ pi ev loutl;, 'I!;iuu Ithe ~~1IfI!lvlll~ 'Of (;~ !rmg..:::-;; wes iul~i;:;J)ii;'Jld~:I,l 'of ::;.c:iL::=:,: C'!J;~c:!: f\Cof. ,d~i~)1 peice eh::u~s~ ,Md! t'tto!1itMy ,pri~e ;t:h:!l'.!:l:ge~ ri~i)!'-ched. '''''-'':rfL''iC'I'~'f!,I' _

J,~' ~

11~ :t1iCX[ f'oofer in cconcmic :fn ·,oc~~til:1.ffl' '!,J)i~1l be, d\ed:filhe:rll1I-Ili' (be,

-~. ". r ~_ I - - - ~. -- - . [ . _. ,Eo .. - ~ . ,I;", - . ~ - -

[)i:'.iile;rn~ w:n~,c'h, g,O\'em ~'~e (lmpHuuie offllllc~lla~ion:s, i[JJ marrire~: dJat:ll~ Slllrp:!'i5~

:hLlIg~,'y ~ '~~le mS'~rwne:n~ mm. ,mit}' ~le~,p y~.e]d these secrets :is ttile 'pe:ndlU~l!Im, or ir~s d,rC'!:i~ron:i'C iilitliaiQg'Ucs. Pcndi!llh.:(,m dynilliffi ~C;9, covers ;5!Uitih, a wide area t'niRiI: :2, I:i"!ltge 'paltt of tbe f.t!1SE'SI:!fiJ'h ln ,oha.og. ls ~1j]'W devoted to this field,

Take a simple :pBndl!l~,J[lIiJiJ., 'lin, 'uts, simple ,o!5ci~ ~8:~iCi.n5~, 'unhil~:t~.on teJ~5 ills that no rn~~tef where ihe swii!Jlg m i~J~ ~tart. '~le mOlti(}I1J will evenltl!lany set~~e ,dow[lJ '~O a. u<e,gl!l1~r ooc._~ ,ru!H~ forth psttem - '~he 'pe[!;(h!1lun] 'comiLlllji totfle ~~me hei:gh~ everytime. 1Iu;Ui: 'Ii.<~n heppen, Y Cot, Hie mlJ(f~1:JJl in 1L1;4~LU~J il,;;;;I.H also ~JU:rll 'ct,~t;,~: ,f:iEltt hi,gll, ¢Jficri :row, :ilC' ..... ~t sc.tt'~:miS, dOWi~, =Do iii st~ady s=~~ ,a..."'ldJ IlCil'Vc:r €' x liI(·fJ:ly repl:"liI~'5i1ig ~ :p~t~L'!rn of 'fi;wlfilg~ Ihlil.' Ci~Ilti!J'E: ~~ihw.

lbThese eoumer-innsitlve results are being enconntered more ,:l!J]rl! more 'by scientisrs as rhey peer i11lm d'!ie 'prism. off simple chaotic models, :FQl' mstanee, '~'S!k,e the O..&{i~.niSJJi(!!ns U1: :0, cenaln economic '(U!!U'8~ Wl1licJJ~l C8!11I be re,lltoJJJju~LB, by ,i.:!. Jli:JliU)l;l!I:~~_I," nou-Ilnear .iJrnjl~d. rOIJ:ti. W(jl~irti~,~, rvih!i!.1 iN ill hi!l.(lJlp!;;:.j,lJ if th<:: ::;:,y~i:em. reeci.Y;:;~, ~ &-lH;!dcL'li jO:U! ;;J; pCrtlXf~tiolrtl of:ft k~nCl! t'~ru:t, mi.g~l: c-.nt'IfIf'.'Il["ln'nril m, ~:.ly. 'rnu~~.d'IJ.f.': :lip-I '1Iirn.~,n:f fllnll::.:iir.ll, hy c.f':'nr~r,::.:i~ han h iili filiI": 'M-w.i '1:]111 c}tc'hOOflge rn'Uafht

]Iuu:~~ion S1J1_ggest'S 'mat ~he sysllfm will ,c'nMlg_e :un 'ftlic desi~d direc'~~OI'J!. BUtt in ac-miil1iJty, chaos researmenl :fQ<Uilid, that :tuil~e ooc['~iations are Uk.ely t.o oogif.iJ. EV0;n if~llic· h:'}IfI~'- t~nd! '~IiI[[lC~ ~'(:i'h~[y @wnw~;S, t'h.e :pa!il'iJ 1'0 line filew e'qJllIl]i"b:dliJm WD"I!.!il\d 'be i~teJ:':!i'U!JH;ed by g'UJrpri!ii~!Ii,,8 In6Vi?mi?,~~ ~:ail1st dte trend.

I

I c,

I.~

In fa'l;:l. :ruch QS(-i~~IMiotls have been seen in 'tiJrJ.@ forex in4litket in 'ITO)et1It y~."fll" ln tElis example •• ne central mt'ruks got '~e desE~ resulrs, but ol11y ~rl{:f an unromJortablLe tim'£: lag: tlfL8~: sao;. tlae 1 trirk·et movenloom, go'~i1,g .ag.ams.'llih"@DtIi'nniliaiLt e- Y'el a trader, s.ee:rllg u short'-Lelil1ll'Ii:s:~ UllilLli;:: dvd ~!:i!' ,ilI.ffiL,e~ uhe ;:.¢nh~g fi\fro~t, wouldl iili56UmC ·~ ... t the jn:tcr,'.c·ntiQil bos f~il~- 'Fh'~~ ·~r:!:rr'ed!~ct9.ib~i2i 'De:h9:''l/'~.{!ir hillS WIJiI' been F~d]y l.1TIi1(1e";;:h'l(Jid '!! ;f, hnt i I' seerrn~ to come ma:ii:n~:y from @: non-linear twist m the now of !3:11~]' :ilil and our ~[t~e s.y5~:e.m.

LllilprediC1lable. h.o-\~\'er" does not liIec.essar~ly mean r-,IUld'om. M~r~ kI~t consmrots ·Ib~:st:·d IOU pi'iljL~e.nm aJlilll Yi!:il~~ l:Lt,e; '~h~ Ellion ".1 av!C Theory, hr..ye n~-d dfi:cse: pa~~ f~... yeiJil'S sU.coe~s :iin ,mti'~:i.pfiliir:'iiiB and, ,eupil!1,@ with !i1!H~l! In'!iZ ~WJg. marker 1'IIiI@lflfrmne.ftlf.:fl_ Crude it miBI,lI be wt lihi, st 'ge.Q'fde'!le~Opmellt. wa;v,e_ly~'u:'.! p'mvides f!j fmm:ework Ujp-Oi1l which to assess Ui~ prolbabili~ieg of possible 'oon!illql1@Iii~: market i:lctioim ~fftef :SlXch penurbarions. In '[he markets subseqll.l.ent quest :for eq_nul abriuJfiil _. a process now kn.OVl!Ill to '!b@ far from IJem.g strnigll'l& .fol"W'ard - UfI,e patn traced enrolJue: liD a. ~Ta'bie d<:l!IE is. largely ulIlprNJiJ H1Nb~e-. Bu~ the- (iiI,cl ILha~. the .\ !3.i:~mlla~ sh;:,p"w of 'dile ~~ tosl:Jb:i!i:fiy win .eonfofm, to one ofE!U" otr's ptt~_e'm!'il, is a~m()~i {'-e-.rta~!!iI!l' lH'yono {ioubt. Ttinitltlilow~ed:Be aktil'ill;:: L sometimes e-rflO'ug'to in :Fo:m:Lula~mng strategies. thatwi]I'e'Wetti ve'!}" handll~ u~rta:iinties engernule.J'e.d 'b,y SllIc'n pe:rtllrrnaltOIil' ,

As scientists I~m :ll1lore. abourt :11 0 n-linea If' dyua:..rrrl,Cg" chaos hlll.~ IIJe(".Qm;(;· mJi[ jlJ1Sl: :IIi theory b.1!J~ alsoa metliloo; H '1i1~ become ~nn jll!l;su. a iI;;~m)'J.t vf l"e>I.iefs. hli.l[ also a way of d,Q.Ellg 6~ic!ii~- \Vhic'hJ brings us beek to -00 To:1 <1r,;-;;-y A'1"q1Ii;;:1'nl4)'JII ",'rrknn,uill~~~ Ii!~", lI"1'n,t'I .. u' ... .:itr1liirtil.;: -, t!!y,~['kt thMfI: impl"l~

~y man on his mmHgination atlid 'ooiio.sJl· - To pro'f1I, fri()m thi~s fi,GW seienee Q:11~: mlllsm, be "' II ling .0 sJU~ pend disbelief ijll~U mit has been given ·diJ£ beliiefit Or tli~ OOll"IDt, The kisb)J)' of science is ma.led, 'by 1.wist~ and '~r,!tflii'llmS~ 1i'e!IilnIliscei1lJt oHIiLe osc~.~~@liori!8- 'p:woojc~ b,Y the ~og~stic diITeremoe equlailio:.ll in chaos 'ifu eQ'1TJ -

At t'lai.s sm'@ge. Ule're is more 'tnilIliI \l'Yi3.1i1 chance ~h!at ill f.lO'nl~:!m.Ii:e1l!r vEi3.W of mality would" 'lJ1pplaDJt theconeeptcf . tlel;ennj;nis~jjc pro'lba.'lbHi,ty1"'~hatiJiltn s so lon.g {iI(nniI18100 lln.e 'j,!,i',ay '\ve lhilllK about (IlU!!' ~~Ollamic .aflFa~rs,_ Let us, pr~p[:!,~ fUIr lhJ,~ e'VlO.iIliltai ii)", UM; it I1Im'lDe .said, to- piffii.pJu~~c To]!)Co ' • di!.oi!I~ ","'C C~ not ,~coept ·~lJte :~imp~iIl'S't and 'mCl~F obl,l'iol!Js truth. j~IS'!' be('":~~:~S}E' ~Jt ooHge~ m:: ~'(tj, at1mh the fa!s~.t.y of I[)[(]f eurrent supJ;I!Osidon..8." In th-e end, we have 'liIQ<thrng: tp, ~.ose bUJ~ rne:rut::ljl ex,te.S5 'ba,gg;ag:e tl:iUlj~ should '~doo\g ~C} the rubbish

bin o:f his,tory, . ~

I

I .

~pW8e Wa.ve~

~~,ag:on~'~ TI;jjrufil.g~e ~.pe."CJ, aJ!. .~)' p e ~.p~11iIdilil:g Type Finh Wa .... oe fallluil.'e R:deflSim~s

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