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Listing:
Bombay Stock Exchange
National Stock Exchange
London Stock Exchange
Ahmedabad Stock Exchange January 2007
Kolkata Stock Exchange
Chennai Stock Exchange
HOLD
Current Price:
Rs 1,223 (Jan 12, 2007)
Investment Summary
• State Bank of India (SBI) has history of more than 200 years of existence. SBI is the
largest commercial bank in India and accounts for approximately 18% of the total Indian
banking business and the group account for 25% of the total Indian banking business.
• The central bank, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the largest shareholder in the bank with
59.7% stake followed by overseas investors including GDRs with 19.78% shareholding
as on September 06. RBI’s stake in the bank is likely to be transferred to the Government
of India (GOI).
• SBI has the largest distribution network in India spread across every nook and corner of
India. As on September 06, the bank has 14,061 branches which include 4,755 branches
of its associated banks. The bank also has the largest network of 5,624 ATMs.
• Since the last five years the bank has showed continued growth in its core business. The
total asset size of the bank reported a CAGR of 9.4% during the period FY01-FY06 and
stood at Rs.4,938.69bn as of September 2006.
• In H1FY07, the bank reported net interest income (NII) of Rs.182.14bn, representing
a growth of 2.74% over H1FY06 while the bank reported a net profit of Rs.19.8bn,
registering a decline of 18.67% during the same period.
• Credit off take of the bank has been lower than the Indian banking industry during the
past few years. The total credit book of the bank grew at a CAGR of 18.2% over the last
five years and stood at Rs2,832.68bn at the end of September 2006. The industry growth
during the same period was around 28%.
• The bank’s asset quality has improved over the past few years. Gross NPL to gross
loans stood at 3.57% as of Sep-end 2006 while net NPLs stood at 1.67%. The bank has
provided for 54.06% of its NPLs as on Sep-end 2006, which is below the industry average
of around 68%.
• Total deposits of the bank grew at a CAGR of 9.4% over the last five years to reach
Rs3,800.5bn, with low cost deposits registering an impressive CAGR of 15.4% during
the same period. Contribution of low cost deposit to total deposit during the period too
has moved up sharply from 36.3% in FY01 to over 47.6% in FY06. However, current
and saving account (CASA) contribution in H1FY07 has declined to 43.65%, thereby
significantly increasing cost of funds and hence margin contraction. On a sequential
basis, margins of the bank declined by 8bps to 3.32%.
• The capital adequacy ratio of the bank stood at 12.63% (Tier-I of 8.74% and Tier-II
of 3.89%) at the end of H1FY07. To augment its CAR to provide a stable platform for
further growth, the bank plans to raise upto Rs.100bn as subordinate debt during the next
few months. The bank also has a cushion to raise further Rs40bn in the form of Hybrid
Tier 1 capital.
• SBI has been a net seller in the bond market and is using its excess investments to fund its
loan growth. As on September 2006, investment book size of the bank stood at Rs1,470bn
which declined from Rs1,650bn as of March 2006. Of the total book size, Rs1,020bn is
in Held To Maturity (HTM). Of the Available for Sale (AFS) book, the duration of the
portfolio of less than two years has been maintained, with mark-to market cushion up to
8.12%.
• SBI is the market leader in the Indian banking space. At the CMP, stock trades at 14.5x
and 12.1x of its earnings for FY07E and FY08E respectively and 3.3x and 2.96x of its
adjusted book value.
• We initiate our coverage of SBI with a Hold rating and value the bank’s share at an
intrinsic value of Rs.1,209 based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology. Though
the bank is the proxy for Indian economic growth, the current market price already
captures the future growth potential. Hence, we recommend a Hold on the stock with a
medium term perspective.
Chart 1: Share Price movement vis-à-vis BSE Sensex and BSE Bankex
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State Bank of India is the largest and one of the oldest commercial bank in India, in existence
for more than 200 years. The bank provides a full range of corporate, commercial and retail
banking services in India. Indian central bank namely Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is the
major share holder of the bank with 59.7% stake. The bank is capitalized to the extent of
Rs.646bn with the public holding (other than promoters) at 40.3%.
SBI has the largest branch and ATM network spread across every corner of India. The
bank has a branch network of over 14,000 branches (including subsidiaries). Apart from
Indian network it also has a network of 73 overseas offices in 30 countries in all time zones,
correspondent relationship with 520 International banks in 123 countries. In recent past, SBI
has acquired banks in Mauritius, Kenya and Indonesia. The bank had total staff strength of
198,774 as on 31st March, 2006. Of this, 29.51% are officers, 45.19% clerical staff and the
remaining 25.30% were sub-staff. The bank is listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange, National
Stock Exchange, Kolkata Stock Exchange, Chennai Stock Exchange and Ahmedabad Stock
Exchange while its GDRs are listed on the London Stock Exchange.
SBI group accounts for around 25% of the total business of the banking industry while it
accounts for 35% of the total foreign exchange in India. With this type of strong base, SBI
has displayed a continued performance in the last few years in scaling up its efficiency levels.
Net Interest Income of the bank has witnessed a CAGR of 13.3% during the last five years.
During the same period, net interest margin (NIM) of the bank has gone up from as low as
2.9% in FY02 to 3.40% in FY06 and currently is at 3.32%.
Management
SBI has a strong and The bank has 14 directors on the Board and is responsible for the management of the
experienced management bank’s business. The board in addition to monitoring corporate performance also carries out
functions such as approving the business plan, reviewing and approving the annual budgets
and borrowing limits and fixing exposure limits. Mr. O. P. Bhatt is the Chairman of the bank.
The five-year term of Mr. Bhatt will expire in March 2011. Prior to this appointment, Mr.
Bhatt was Managing Director at State Bank of Travancore. Mr. Bhatt has more than 30 years
of experience in the Indian banking industry and is seen as futuristic leader in his approach
towards technology and customer service. Mr. Bhatt has had the best of foreign exposure in
SBI. We believe that the appointment of Mr. Bhatt would be a key to SBI’s future growth
momentum. Mr. T S Bhattacharya is the Managing Director of the bank and known for his
vast experience in the banking industry. Recently, the senior management of the bank has
been broadened considerably. The positions of CFO and the head of treasury have been
segregated, and new heads for rural banking and for corporate development and new business
banking have been appointed. The management’s thrust on growth of the bank in terms of
network and size would also ensure encouraging prospects in time to come.
Reserve Bank of India is the largest shareholder in the bank with 59.7% stake followed by
overseas investors including GDRs with 19.78% stake as on September 06. Indian financial
institutions held 12.3% while Indian public held just 8.2% of the stock. RBI is the monetary
authority and having majority shareholding reflects conflict of interest. Now the government
is rectifying the above error by transferring RBI’s holding to itself. Post this, SBI will have a
further headroom to dilute the GOI’s stake from 59.7% to 51.0%, which will further improve
its CAR and Tier I ratio.
8.2%
7.9%
6.0%
Source: SBI
As of Sep 2006, SBI has 526.3mn shares outstanding and going by the actual trading volume,
the stock’s liquidity seems to have decreased in the past two years. In the first half of FY2007,
93mn shares exchanged hands. The daily share turnover during the year 2006 was 0.22%
down from 0.39% witnessed in 2005. But the sentiment in the stock market improved in the
first six months of the current fiscal with the bank clocking further gains. As of January 12,
2007 bank’s market capitalisation stood at Rs.643.6bn.
State Bank of
India
a) Corporate Banking
The corporate banking segment of the bank has total business of around Rs1,193bn. SBI has
created various Strategic Business Units (SBU) in order to streamline its operations. These
SBUs are as follows:
• SBI-FAST, which is the cash management product offered by this SBU, had a turnover
of Rs.4,705.75bn as of 31st March 2006. This product is now a comprehensive cash
management solution, offering payments in addition to collections.
• Vendor financing activity is being integrated with core banking through the internet
platform. This is identified as a focus area to capture the credit portfolio of vendors.
• The foreign exchange business grew by around 55% y-o-y and reached Rs.1,747.70bn as
of 31st March 2006. This SBU now handles nearly 12% of the country’s visible trade and
about 43% of bank’s forex business.
a.2) Leasing
This SBU is not writing any leases since the past few years as unfavorable business climate
and availability of alternative funding options at cheaper cost. As at the end March 2006, the
disbursements and capitalization were zero and profit amounted to Rs.245.9mn.
As a whole, this SBU achieved total sanctions of Rs.238.86bn (fund based and non fund
based) including syndication amount of Rs.140.95bn during the period ended March 2006.
During FY06, this SBU entered into financing of aviation sector actively by sanctioning
loans for modernization of airports and acquisition of aircrafts.
As of March 2006, 21 MCG branches have been migrated to core banking platform. New
technology products like RTGS, CINB, Multi-City cheque facility and Core Power have been
introduced in all these branches. These technology products coupled with quick Turn Around
Time (TAT) have enabled Mid-Corporate Group to increase its business substantially and
generate higher income, both interest and fee based.
b) National Banking
The national banking group has 14 administrative circles encompassing a vast network of
9,177 branches, 4 sub-offices, 12 exchange bureaus, 104 satellite offices and 679 extension
counters, to reach out to customers, even in the remotest corners of the country. Out of
the total branches, 809 are specialized branches. This group consists of four business group
which are enumerated below:
On the home loan front, several new products were introduced, tailored to fit the needs of
specific customer segments, such as SBIMaxgain (minimize interest burden, earn on savings,
at no extra cost), SBI NRI-Home Loans, SBI Freedom Home Loans (Loans given without
mortgage of property, but against alternate securities, instead), SBI Tribal Plus Home Loans.
The auto loans portfolio has shown a growth of Rs.17.74bn in absolute terms and 65% which
is considerably higher than last year’s growth, mainly due to implementation of well planned
strategies.
Focused on the SME sector, projects under Uptech are taken up in location specific and
activity specific industry clusters. So far the bank has taken 28 projects for modernisation
under the Project Uptech covering industries like foundry, pumps, glass, auto components,
and knitwear, etc. The bank has also covered agro based industries like rice mills, sago and
starch and horticulture activities like Apple Orchards and grape farming under the scheme.
The deposits of the SME SBU increased to Rs.1,042.70bn as at the end of March 2006 from
Rs.890.60bn of previous year recording a growth of 17.08% during the year. SME advances
increased to Rs.456.53bn from Rs.328.30bn of previous year, recording a growth of 39.06 %.
The criteria laid down by the Government of India for growth in SME advances is 20%.
c) International Banking
SBI has a network of 73 overseas offices in 30 countries in all time zones and correspondent
relationship with 520 international banks in 123 countries. The bank is keen to implement
core banking solution to its international branches also. During FY06, 25 foreign offices were
successfully switched over to Finacle software. SBI has installed ATMs at Male, Muscat
and Colombo Offices. In recent years, SBI acquired 76% shareholding in Giro Commercial
Bank Limited in Kenya and PT Indomonex Bank Ltd. in Indonesia. The bank incorporated a
company SBI Botswana Ltd. at Gaborone.
d) Treasury
The bank manages an integrated treasury covering both domestic and foreign exchange
markets. In recent years, the treasury operation of the bank has become more active amidst
rising interest rate scenario, robust credit growth and liquidity constraints. The bank
diversified its operations more actively into alternative assets classes with a view to diversify
the portfolio and build alternative revenue streams in order to offset the losses in fixed income
portfolio.
Reorganisation of the treasury processes at domestic and global levels is also being
undertaken to leverage on the operational synergy between business units and network. The
reorganization seeks to enhance the efficiencies in use of manpower resources and increase
maneuverability of banks operations in the markets both domestic as well as international.
The State Bank Group with a network of 14,061 branches including 4,755 branches of its
seven Associate Banks dominates the banking industry in India. In addition to banking, the
Group, through its various subsidiaries, provides a whole range of financial services which
includes Life Insurance, Merchant Banking, Mutual Funds, Credit Card, Factoring, Security
trading and primary dealership in the Money Market.
All associate banks have migrated to Core Banking (CBS) platform. Single window delivery
system has been introduced in all associate banks. SBI’s seven associate banks are the first
amongst the public sector banks in India to get fully networked through CBS, providing
anytime-anywhere banking to its customers to facilitate a bouquet of innovative customer
offerings.
i) SBI Life:
SBI Life is the third largest private insure with the market share of 10.21% among the private
players and number one in terms of number of lives insured amongst private players (no. of
lives insured and policies is 25mn). In H1FY07 gross premium was Rs.7.68bn.
and distribution. To capitalize on the emerging opportunities, SBI Caps has promoted four
wholly owned subsidiaries viz. SBICAP Securities Ltd. for undertaking stock broking
activities, SBICAPS Ventures Limited, SBICAP Trustee Company Limited for undertaking
venture capital business and SBI CAP (UK) LTD., for carrying on the Financial Services
Authority (FSA) regulated activities.
On the international front, the expertise of SBI Caps in the infrastructure and project advisory
has received international acclaim. In addition, the company has been placed 11th globally in
the Mandated Project Advisor league tables by Thompson’s, and one of the projects handled
by the company has been selected as the Asia Pacific Infrastructure deal of the year for FY06.
SBI Caps booked gross income amounting to Rs.1.79bn in FY06 as against Rs.1.75bn in the
previous year, while PAT of the company was at Rs.906.2mn in FY06 as against Rs.881.2mn
in the last year.
f) Human Resources
The bank had total staff strength of 198,774 on the 31st March, 2006. Of this, 29.51% are
officers, 45.19% clerical staff and the remaining 25.30% were sub-staff. SBI had launched
VRS scheme for its employees in FY01 in which it has reduced it staff by approximately
5,000 and estimates natural retirement of another 5,000 employees in next 4-5 year.
As a part of its strategy to stay ahead of the competition, SBI had increased its benchmark
lending rates by 50 basis points to 11.5 percent; this lending rate increase is due to the rising
cost of funds for banks, which are paying more for deposits as a way of encouraging investors
to save.
• The bank has formed a new department to draw up a blueprint for these cutting-edge
segments in financial sector services Private equity, point of sale, cards business (gift
cards, payroll cards & other cards,) pension, general insurance, merchant acquisitions and
gold banking are a few areas SBI is looking at for developing its profile as a modern 21st
century bank. With the new initiative, SBI is determined to capture its lost market share.
• On the private equity business, the bank not earmarked any amount, but it could be in a
range of Rs1bn-1.5bn.
• State Bank of India has applied for permission for banking operations in China, which, if
approved, would enable Chinese corporations to open their accounts with India's largest
banking network. The SBI Shanghai branch will also increase investment in China,
enhancing trade development between New Delhi and Beijing. SBI was expected to offer
remittance services in China and might open new branches in South China and Beijing by
2008. SBI's Shanghai branch provides investment consultancy and acquisition financing,
and remittances directly to India, as well as foreign currency services for overseas
companies.
• As per the new SBI Act the bank can raise funds from the market and lower the central
bank's holding to 51 percent. The new bill proposes to amend the SBI Act to allow the
minimum central bank holding in the bank to be lowered to 51 percent from 55 percent.
The bill seeks to allow SBI to raise funds through preference shares or private placements.
It will also be allowed to issue bonus shares, which it could not do under the existing act.
The voting rights of preference shareholders will be capped at 10 percent.
• The bank could raise fresh equity in the fiscal year beginning in April 2007, after changes
are made in the law to dilute the central bank's stake. The bill also seeks to increase SBI's
authorised capital to Rs.50bn. The bank's paid-up capital was Rs.5.26bn as of Sep 06.
Indian banks have been raising capital to comply with Basel II prudential norms and meet
strong demand for loans in a fast growing economy.
• SBI group has around 8,500 branches under CBS platform with 3,710 branches of SBI.
As a group SBI has 64% of it business and around 89mn accounts under CBS.
The credit demand was not entirely financed by the customer deposits as the growth of deposits
slowed down marginally in 2005-06. In order to meet the increased demand for credit, banks
increased their dependence to non-deposit resources. In addition to this, number of banks
curtailed their fresh investment in Government securities to finance the credit demand. The
strong credit offtake was primarily responsible for the improved net interest income of many
banks. In fact, the strong credit demand was able to more than offset the impact of sharp
decline in non-interest income. Profitability of public sector and new private sector banks
improved, despite hardening of sovereign yields.
Asset quality of SCBs has been improving since the past three years as reflected in the decline
in gross non-performing assets in absolute terms. This is despite the fact that, RBI has asked
banks to switch over to the 90-day delinquency norm with effect from March 2004. With the
sharp increase in risk-weighted assets, many banks shored up their capital by way of new
issues.
Public sector banks dominate the Indian banking system though their market share is
dwindling…
The public sector banks (PSBs) account for a major share of all the banking indicators like
assets, deposits, advances etc. However, the private sector banks, especially new private
banks like ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and UTI Bank etc. are giving tough competition to their
government owned peers. Public sector banks which comprise State Bank of India group and
other nationalised banks are continuously losing their market share in bank deposits since the
opening up of the banking sector to their private counterparts. According to latest Reserve
Bank of India (RBI) figures, private banks and foreign banks have gained during the year.
The data indicates that SBI group’s market share in deposits dipped to 23.4% in FY06 from
24.2% in the previous year. The share of nationalised banks, as a group, accounted for 48.4%,
down from 49.8% in the previous year. The share of foreign banks, regional rural banks and
private banks aggregate deposits were 5.3% and 19.4%, respectively, as against 4.45% and
18.1%, respectively, in the previous year.
As regards loans extended by commercial banks, there has been no significant change in the
market share of various bank groups. The share of nationalised banks was 47.5% in FY06
as against 47.4% in the previous year. The share of the SBI group was stable at 23.1%. The
share of private banks was 20.2% (20.1%). However, foreign banks recorded a marginal dip
in their share in bank credit to 6.5% as against 6.7% in the previous year.
previous year. The year on year growth of gross bank credit as on 31st March 2006 was
29.9% as against 26.9% (net of conversion) on the corresponding date of last year.
Non food credit up to FY06 registered a growth of 37.3% as compared to 32.8% during
the same period last year. The year on year growth rate of non food credit was 30.8% as
compared with 27.7% on the corresponding date of last year.
Retail credit to GDP continues to remain low compared to other regional emerging markets.
The target population is small, however growing at a fast pace. We expect the retail credit
market to grow from Rs.750bn in Mar 03 to Rs 3464bn by Mar 08.
India’s population is young with over 50% of the population under the age of 25 and 80%
under the age 45. Growing urbanization, rising disposable income of the middle-income
group comprising 23% of the population is leading to a shift in consumption patterns and
fuelling retail loan boom. With savings rate at 28% (of which 90% is from households), and
low leverage of individual balance sheets, we expect retail loan boom to continue with low
incremental defaults.
200 1 6 .5
2 4 .1 2 0 .2
150 33
3 3 .1
8 1 .7
44
100
7 4 .4
5 4 .1
50 7 5 .5
4 6 .4
3 2 .5
1 .2 2 .6 5 .2
0
1996 2002 2007
V e r y R ic h ( $ 1 9 5 0 0 ) C o n s u m in g C la s s ( $ 4 5 0 0 ) C lim b e r s ( $ 2 3 0 0 )
A s p ir a n t ( $ 9 8 0 ) D e s titu te s ( $ 4 4 0 )
Source: NCAER
Banks faced a resource crunch in FY06 and FY05, with loans growing more than deposits in
absolute terms. This has forced many banks to go on overdrive to woo depositors by offering
attractive rates on term deposits. Banks have raised deposit rates by over 50 basis points over
the last six months. In recent weeks, many private banks have started offering higher returns
on nine-month to one-year term deposits. PSBs have raised rates on term deposits offering
returns comparable to small savings schemes. Besides from August 1, ‘06 bank deposits for
over five years are eligible for tax benefits.
However, with the government asking PSBs to roll back lending rate hikes, banks may not be
able to offer better returns on deposits. However, private and foreign banks could still come
out with more attractive rates as they are not governed by this. Hence, for private banks and
foreign banks deposit mobilization is not much a constraint.
Operating costs are not likely to take a breather for private sector banks as the banks are
aggressively increasing their delivery channels and investing heavily in technology. The new
formats include specialised offices where banks extend low-ticket credit and raise low cost
deposits. High volume growth is likely on the back of higher operating costs. However, we do
not expect any rise in operating cost to income ratio, despite the rapid increase in infrastructure
as we believe that the income is also expected to go up sharply going forward.
Asset quality of scheduled commercial banks improved further during the year, with gross
and net NPA ratios reaching historical low levels of 3.5% and 1.3%, respectively, at end-
March 2006. Robust economic activity and better recovery climate have facilitated reduction
in non-performing assets in recent years. Only five banks had net NPAs in excess of five per
cent of their net advances. Financial institutions, scheduled urban co-operative banks and
Non Banking Finance Companies also recorded an improvement in their asset quality during
2005-06, with net NPA ratios reaching 1.3%, 3% and 1%, respectively, of their net advances
at the end of March 2006.
CIBIL had launched its consumer bureau, catering to individual borrowers and has amassed
55 million records so far. Around 90% of the lenders in the financial system are now using
the database of Cibil. Recently, CIBIL has launched its commercial bureau for catering to
non-individuals viz. corporate, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and other types of
business entities earlier this month.
II norms from March 2007. Only three scheduled commercial banks, of which one is under
moratorium, could not meet the prescribed CRAR requirements at end March 2006.
Market major SBI has managed to reach just 14.3% of the stipulated 18% during FY06.
Among other major commercial banks, ICICI Bank has managed to achieve a target of 16.8%,
while Union Bank of India and Bank of Baroda recorded 16% and 14.6%, respectively.
Bank of India is the only entity among large lenders to cross the 18% target at 19.3%. The
government wants the banks to double their agri-loan portfolio over the next three years.
The most important point here is the rising interest rates. Even though there is sharp rise in
real interest rates, credit growth would not be impacted due to higher demand from every
sector like corporate, retail and agriculture. With the banks increasing its deposits rates there
will be a relatively higher time deposit growth in the banking system, which will ensure easy
flow of credit to the corporate sector.
RBI has been concerned about the strong credit growth in the retail and real estate sectors.
Over the past three years, only 44% of the incremental credit disbursed flowed to the
industrial and agriculture sectors. In a bid to slow this aggressive credit growth in sectors
other than industry and agriculture, RBI has initiated number of restraining measures which
include increasing risk weightage for commercial real estate-related loans to 150% from
100%, for housing to 75% from 50% and for consumer loans (unsecured credit and credit
cards) to 125% from 100%. RBI has also increased the mandatory standard loan provisioning
in specific sectors (personal loans, capital market-related loans, residential loans greater than
Rs2mn and commercial real estate loans) to 1% from 0.4%.
advanced and emerging market economies. For example, it is around 150% in China and
in Thailand it’s just above 90%. This suggests that financial deepening is still low in India
as compared to the other emerging countries and is expected to improve further with the
development of the financial sector. Thus, India offers tremendous potential in the long-term
as its credit to GDP ratio is likely to improve further.
A large number of foreign banks are queuing up to enter India despite a regulatory iron
curtain that is restricting entry. This is regardless of the fact that most foreign banks
seems to be unhappy with the Reserve Bank of India’s roadmap for liberalisation of entry
norms for foreign banks proposed in February ’05. Foreign banks wants the government
to relax regulations such as priority sector lending, ownership rules and statutory liquidity
requirements, branch licensing, single borrower limits etc.
Foreign banks have targeted India for a variety of reasons. They are impressed by the pace of
reforms, huge market, interest of foreign institutional investors and the country’s changing
image. This is evident from the levels of investment and expansion plans for the country.
Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) and Australia-based Macquarie Bank are some of the
banks which are interested in India.
Besides, investments in perpetual preference shares, units of open-ended mutual fund schemes
and securities with a put option cannot be classified as HTM reserves. As per revised draft
guidelines on classification and valuation of investments, banks should transfer
scripts from the held-for-trade to the available-for-sale (AFS) category either at the acquisition
cost or the book value or market value on the date of transfer, whichever is the least. These
guidelines are expected to come into force from April 1, ’07. The book value of the individual
securities would undergo a change with a corresponding debit to the profit and loss account.
Earlier, banks were asked to provide for depreciation and hence this change was reflected in
the bank’s net profit figures. However, these guidelines would impact the bank’s operating
profit. The guidelines also aim at providing banks’ boards room to fix the internal limits for
holdings in the HTM category. This indirectly implies that RBI’s stipulation, which makes
it mandatory for all banks to maintain at least 25% of their net demand and time liabilities as
reserves under the SLR portfolio.
Through these proposed set of guidelines, RBI has attempted to give a clear definition of
securities which are eligible for classification under the HTM bucket. It states that only
securities with fixed or determinable payments having a fixed maturity that a bank intends
to hold and has the ability to hold till the term of maturity may be classified under the HTM
category. These proposed norms prevent a bank from classifying any security as HTM, if it
has sold or reclassified, more than 5 % of the HTM before maturity at the end of the previous
financial year.
Since the past few years, customer deposits of banks recorded strong growth. Private sector
banks reported excellent performance as compared to their government owned peers.
However, some of the public sector banks are giving tough competition to their private sector
peers. In the private banking space, ICICI Bank was the leader in customer deposit growth
as its deposit grew by 65.4% followed by HDFC Bank (53.5%) and Kotak Bank (52.7%). In
the public sector banking space, IDBI Bank reported stellar performance as its deposits grew
by 72% followed by Corporation Bank with growth rate of 20.7%. SBI, which is the largest
bank in India, reported a growth of just 3.5%.
Table 14: Customer Deposits of Some of the Listed Commercial Banks (Rs.bn)
Bank Mar-05 Mar-06 % Change H1 FY07
Private Sector Banks
ICICI Bank 998.19 1,650.83 65.38% 1894.99
HDFC Bank 363.543 557.96 53.48% 667.49*
UTI Bank 317.12 401.11 26.49% 509.20*
J&K Bank 216.45 234.85 8.50% NA
Karur Vysya Bank 66.72 75.76 13.55% 81.07^
Federal Bank 134.76 151.92 12.73% 182.88
Kotak Bank 43.00 65.66 52.71% NA
Yes Bank 6.63 29.1 338.91% 43.30
Public Sector Banks
State Bank of India 3,670.48 3,800.46 3.54% 3,926.15
Bank of Baroda 81.33 93.66 15.16% 1,076.82
Bank of India 788.21 939.32 19.17% 1,032.94
IDBI Ltd 151.02 260 72.16% 309.53
Corporation Bank 272.33 328.76 20.72% NA
Source: Banks and Global Research
Note: ^ June 06, * December 06 , NA Not available
Federal Bank reported a sharp jump of 150% in its earnings at the end of FY06 over FY05.
Other major banks which reported strong growth in net profits include and IDBI (45%). In
the public sector domain Bank of India reported a growth of 106.3% followed by IDBI Bank
with 82.3% growth. Laggards included IndusInd Bank, whose net profit declined by 82.3%,
followed by Bank of Maharashtra (-71%) and Vijaya Bank (-66.7%).
Table 15: Net Profit of Some of the Listed Commercial Banks (Rs.mn)
Bank Mar-05 Mar-06 % Change H1 FY07
Private Sector Banks
ICICI Bank 20,052.00 25,400.70 26.67 13,750.00
HDFC Bank 6,655.60 8,707.80 30.83 7,979.00*
UTI Bank 3,345.80 4,850.80 44.98 4,471.40*
J&K Bank 1,150.70 1,768.40 53.68 1,464.00
Karur Vysya Bank 1,053.40 1,353.50 28.49 383.8^
Federal Bank 900.9 2,252.10 149.98 1,096.40
Kotak Bank 848.9 1,182.31 39.28 587.06
Yes Bank NA 2,700.00 NA 383.60
Public Sector Banks
State Bank of India 43,045.20 44,066.70 2.37 19,830.60
Bank of Baroda 6,768.40 8,269.60 22.18 4,520.00
Bank of India 3,400.50 7,014.40 106.28 4,210.00
Corporation Bank 4,021.60 4,444.60 10.52 2,712.50
IDBI Ltd 3,072.60 5,608.90 82.55 2,900.00
Source: Banks and Global Research
Note: ^ June 06, * December 06 , NA Not available
Most of the banks have CAR more than required 9% but considering the excellent credit
growth, banks have to expand their capital base. IDBI Bank has one of the highest CAR in
the industry with 14.66% followed by ICICI Bank (14.34%).
Table 16: Capital Adequacy Ratio of some of the banks as of September 2006
Banks CAR (%)
ICICI Bank 14.34
Coperation Bank 13.32
Bank of India 11.85
Bank of Baroda 12.93
UTI Bank 11.83
IDBI Ltd 14.66
Source: CMIE
Asset quality of Indian banks has improved significantly in the last 2-3 years. Most of the
banks have provided substantial amount so that average net NPA of Indian banking industry
is around 1-2.25%. In the select banking universe as indicated below, Bank of baroda has the
largest gross NPAs of around 3.44% at the end of H1FY07 followed by Bank of India, Bank
of Baroda having gross NPAs of 2.96% during the same period. UtiBank has the best asset
quality as its gross NPAs stood at just 1.2% of advances.
Table 17: Non Performing Assets of some of the banks (September 2006)
Gross NPA Net NPA
% of % of
Advances Advances
Banks ( Rs.bn) (Rs.bn)
ICICI Bank 37.01 2.20 15.45 0.90
Corporation Bank 6.16 2.16 1.34 0.48
Bank of India 22.19 2.96 7.89 1.07
Bank of Baroda 24.88 3.44 5.44 0.79
UTI Bank 4.72 1.20 2.67 0.68
IDBI Ltd 13.32 2.31 7.359 1.29
Source: CMIE
• Ganesh Bank of Kurundwad (on the border of Maharashtra and Karnataka) will be merged
with Federal Bank, a Kerala-based private bank.
Many banks are coming forward to take over these banks to extend their network and mobilize
more low cost fund. In case of UWB, players like Canara Bank, ICICI Bank, Citibank,
Standard Chartered Bank, and a consortium of HDFC and the State Industrial Investment
Corporation of Maharashtra had shown their interest in the bank. This shows that there is
atleast a desire of consolidation amongst the industry players.
Another major contributor to the growth of net interest income was the rapid growth in
low cost deposits, which helped the bank in containing its cost of funds. During 2005-06, During 2005-06, demand
deposits grew by 19.3%
low cost deposits grew by 19.3% on a year-on-year basis, which helped contain the cost of
on a y-o-y basis.
funds. In addition, the redemption of India Millenium Deposit and Resurgent India Bonds
has also helped the bank to lower its cost of funds. Another positive factor is that the interest
expense to interest income ratio declined consistently from 69.5% in 2002 to 56.3% in 2006.
We believe that the bank would sustain this ratio and can marginally improve on it mainly
because of its resource mobilization power and cost control measures.
Chart 5: Interest Income and Interest Expense trends for the Bank
400 , 000
350 , 000
300 , 000
250 , 000
(Rs Mn)
50 , 000
In t eres t In co m e I n t e r e s t E xp e n s e
Income from investments also formed a part of the non-interest income of the bank in the
past, though it has always been volatile. During 2005-06, there has been a significant decline
in profits from trading in investments to Rs.5.9bn compared to Rs.17.75bn in the previous
year.
for standard assets from 0.25% to 0.4% as notified by RBI, the bank has made an additional
provision during 2005-06. The bank has provided Rs.38.92bn towards provision for
depreciation on investments in India, including amortisation of premium on Held to Maturity
category as against Rs.23.27bn in 2004-05 and Rs.4.05bn towards standard assets as against
Rs.1.15bn in 2004-05. Including this amount, the total provision held on standard assets
amounts to Rs.9.13bn.
Operating expenses …
Operating expenses of the bank grew in line with the growth in business. The total operating
expenses grew at a CAGR of 7.2% in the last five years. For the year ended Mar-06, operating
expenses rose by 16.4% over the previous year and stood at Rs.117.3bn. Employee expenses, Operating expenses
which always contributed substantial chunk of the total operating expenses, grew by 17.6% grew at a CAGR of 7.2%
during the last five years.
in FY2006 to Rs.81.2bn. During the year there was decline in the operational efficiency as
the cost to total operating income after provision improved from 60.7% in FY05 to 62.9%
in FY06.
Overall, the bank reported a strong performance in the past five years with its net profitability
of the bank recording a CAGR of impressive 22.4%. The year 2006 also turned out to be
profitable for the bank with the bank reporting a net profit of Rs.44.1bn, a rise of just 2.4% In FY06, he bank reported
net profit of Rs.44.1bn, a
over FY2005. The improved earnings have also led to the improvement in the earning per
rise of 2.1% over FY2005.
share of the bank, which rose from Rs.30.5 in FY2001 to Rs.83.7 in FY06. Manpower
productivity has also risen over the years as profit per employee increased steadily from
Rs.0.2mn in FY05 to Rs.0.22mn in FY06. During the same period the business per employee
has been also increased to Rs29.9mn.
Despite the improved earnings over the years, some of the banks profitability indicators like
Return on Average Assets (RoAA) and Return on Average Equity (RoAE) seem to have
deteriorated. This is primarily due to sharp rise in assets for expansion purpose. The return on
average assets declined from 0.94% in FY04 to 0.92% in FY06, while the return on average
Maintained efficiency…
SBI has displayed a steady performance in the last few years in scaling up its efficiency
levels. Net Interest Income (NII) of the bank has witnessed a CAGR of 13.3% in the last five
years. The net interest margin (NIM) of the bank has gone up from as low as 2.9% in FY01 to
3.4% in FY06. Spread of the bank has also increased from 1.7% in FY02 to 3% in FY06.
120,000
NIM (%)
3.1%
100,000
80,000
2.9%
60,000
40,000 2.7%
20,000
- 2.5%
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
Higher Dividend…
The bank has recommended a higher dividend rate of 140% on equity shares, compared to
the 125% dividend declared for the previous year. With the increase in earnings in future, the
bank is expected to distribute handsome dividends to shareholders.
32.91%
52.98%
Cash and Balances with RBI, banks and money at short and call notice
Net Investment
Loanes & Advances
Net Fixed Assets
Other Assets
Due to stiff competition prevailing in the industry total credit book of the bank grew at a CAGR
of 18.2% over the last five years. The asset growth in FY06 was mainly fuelled by 29.3%
growth in gross loans and advances to customers and banks and stood at Rs.2,616.4bn.
Project finance achieved total sanctions of Rs.238.86bn (fund based and non fund based)
including syndication amount of Rs.140.95bn during the period ended March 2006 while mid
corporate credit has increased by 42% to Rs194.3bn.
The aggregate advances (excluding food and inter-bank advances) of the national banking
group which includes personal , SME, agricultural and government banking increased from
Rs.980.50bn in FY05 to Rs.1,337.81bn in FY06 registering a growth of 36.44% during the
year. This is on account of an impressive growth of 39.72 % under agriculture and 31.49%
growth in personal segment. Housing loans portfolio registered an increase of 28.11%
growth.
Personal banking advances increased from Rs.464.51bn in the previous year to Rs.610.67bn
in FY06, showing a growth of Rs.146.16bn at the rate of 31.47 % against a growth rate of
40.12% in the previous year. The SME advances increased to Rs.456.53bn in FY06 from
Rs.328.30bn in the previous year, recording a growth of 39.06 %. The criteria laid down by
the government for growth in SME advances is 20%. Agricultural advances grew from a
level of Rs. 205.26bn in March 05 to Rs.305.16bn as at the end of March 06. Growth during
the year was Rs.99.90bn and the y-o-y growth rate works out to 49%.
percentage of net customer assets, declined substantially from 2.65% as on 31st March 2005
to 1.87% as on 31st March 2006. The bank is looking forward to clean its balance sheet and
write off some of its old problem loans.
Gross NPL in absolute terms has declined from Rs 124.56bn in 2005 to Rs103.76bn in 2006.
During the same period, coverage has declined from 57% in 2004 to 53% in 2006. In case of
economic slowdown, SBI’s asset quality is likely to take a hit as the bank has grown its asset
coupled with an increase in gross NPLs. This coupled with low coverage ratio, is likely to
affect bottom line in case of an economic slowdown.
Investment Portfolio…
The investment portfolio constituted around 32.91% of the total asset size of the bank at
the end of FY06. The bank’s investments declined by 17.54% from Rs.1,971bn in FY05
to Rs.1,625bn in FY06. A major portion of the investment was in the domestic market in
government and other approved securities. The overall domestic investment portfolio has,
however, shrunk from Rs.1,954bn in FY05 to Rs.1,593bn in FY06 as the bank redeemed
some of its investment to divert funds to boost loans and advances portfolio. During the year,
the bank further de-risked the investment portfolio to manage interest rate risk through a
combination of measures such as shifting securities amounting to Rs.297.88bn from AFS to
HTM, use of derivatives, reducing the modified duration, etc.
The government is planning to bring an ordinance to empower the RBI to fix the level of
banks SLR. A cut in SLR rate at this point would infuse future liquidity into the system.
Thought the law allows RBI to lower the banks SLR requirements below exciting 25%, we
believe that the central bank unlikely to take such steps, as concerns over excess liquidity in
the system and claiming inflation persist.
Funding Structure…
Historically, around 5-6% of the balance sheet was funded by shareholders equity with the
rest coming from customers and inter-bank deposits. The bank has been able to expand its
deposit base by rapid expansion in semi-urban and rural areas of the country and by way of
introducing number of innovative products.
7.9%
59.7% Deposits
11.9% Borrowings
Subordinated Debt
Other Libilities and Provisions
Total Shareholders Equity
6.3%
6.0%
As at the end of March 2006, the share of the bank’s deposits in total resources was at 75.9%,
with outstanding deposits at Rs.3,800bn, reflecting a growth of 19.3% over the previous year.
Out of this, savings bank deposits, an important part of low cost deposits, grew by 18.8%.
2,000,000 40.00%
1,000,000 20.00%
500,000 10.00%
0 0.00%
FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06
On the back of robust low cost deposit growth, cost of funds for SBI has seen a substantial
reduction. With growing reach through larger branch and ATM network, we opine that the
low cost deposits would continue to be on current levels to maintain the cost of funds. This,
according to us, would play a critical role to maintain Net Interest Margins (NIMs) at current
levels in time to come.
During the year 2005-2006, the bank issued by way of private placement, unsecured,
subordinated bonds of the face value of Rs.1mn each for cash at par at a fixed rate of 7.45%
p.a., payable annually, for an aggregate amount of Rs.32.83bn to augment its Tier II capital.
These bonds are redeemable on 05.05.2015. The face value of bonds outstanding as at 31st
March 2006 is Rs.32.83bn.
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) of SBI has been above the mandatory levels of 9%. But
the same is on the lower side when compared to other peers in the industry. This has been
mainly due to very robust credit book growth registered by the bank. Considering the bank’s
continued healthy credit growth, especially in view of robust economic upsurge, we believe
that a large capital infusion is mandated in order to sustain the growth going forward. Also,
the capital infusion would be very essential to smoothly progress to Basel II guidelines.
Operating expenses registered a moderate increase of 6.78%. Staff cost, which increased by
5.56%, would have been much lower but for the on-going payments to staff opting for early
exit.
Total provisions made for this half year were at Rs.33.26bn, as against Rs.29.84bn made in
H1FY05-06. Provision for depreciation in investment was Rs.15.27bn as against Rs.23.97bn
during H1FY06. Provision made during 2QFY07 was only Rs.4.23bn mainly on account of
amortization of premium in HTM category.
Provision for taxes stood at Rs.13.63bn (deferred tax Rs.1.76bn & FBT Rs 225mn) as against
Rs.4bn (including deferred tax of Rs.3.43bn and FBT Rs190mn) in H1FY06. Adjusting
tax provision for H1FY06 based on tax provisions for full year FY05-06, the net profit for
H1FY07 would be much higher than that for H1FY06.
The bank has posted a net profit of Rs19.83bn for H1FY07. The net profit for this half would
have been higher but for two factors: presence of one time item of interest on income tax
refund of Rs7.12bn in H1FY06 and much higher tax provisions in H1FY07. The net profit
for H1FY06 was Rs.24.38bn.
The bank’s domestic deposits growth has been excellent at Rs.152.24bn during 2QFY07,
despite less reliance on bulk corporate deposits, mainly due to pan-India network of 9,306
branches. The bank’s deposits grew by Rs381.73bn to Rs.3,926.15bn as at the end of
September 2006 from Rs.3,544.42bn as at the end of September 2005 recording a growth of
10.77%. The cost of deposits declined from 4.64% in September 2005 to 4.51% in September
2006 helped by improvement in CASA Ratio. CASA ratio of the bank improved from 39.48%
as on September 2005 (excl. IMDs) to 42.64% as on September 2006, an increase of 316 bps,
helped by vast network of the bank and focus on salary / new accounts.
The bank’s domestic advances (excl. food) grew by Rs172.93bn during 2QFY07. Gross
advances grew to Rs.2,888.40bn as at the end of September 2006 from Rs.2,383.51bn as
at the end of September 2005 i.e. a growth of Rs.504.89bn equal to 21.18% YoY. SBI’s
domestic advances (excl. food) grew to Rs.2,497.03bn as at the end of September 2006 from
Rs.2,009.91bn as at the end of September 2005 recording a YoY growth of 24.24%. The
average yield on advances improved to 8.55% in September 2006 from 7.81% in September
2005. Due to the volume growth in advances and improvement in yield, interest income on
advances went up by 37.48% compared to H1FY06.
As on 30th September 2006, the advances in personal segment grew (YoY) by Rs.136.02bn.
The outstanding personal segment advances aggregated Rs658.10bn at the end of September
2006. The bank continues to perform well in housing finance. As on 30th September 2006,
housing advances grew (YoY) by Rs62.30bn and the total outstanding, as at the end of
September 2006 was Rs.345.71bn. Housing loans disbursed during H1FY07 are around
Rs.48bn. The growth in retail advances is 26.05% over September 2005. Retail advances
constitute 25.75% of the bank’s gross domestic advances as at the end of September 2006 as
against 24.73% as on September 2005. Housing loans constitute 52.53% of its retail advances
as on September 2006.
Agricultural advances grew to Rs.306.10bn as at the end of September 2006 from Rs.237.08bn
as at the end of September 2005 recording a growth of 29.11%. Disbursements during the
half-year ended September 2006 were at Rs.106.91bn.
Gross NPA and Net NPA ratio have declined from 5.26% and 2.27% as on 30th September
05 to 3.57% and 1.67% respectively as on 30th September 06.
10%
11%
24%
11%
The bank added Rs.55.43bn to its capital during H1FY07 by way of upper Tier-II subordinated
debt, which helped the bank in improving its capital adequacy ratio. Total Tier II bonds
mobilization in last 11 months was Rs.102.26bn. Tier – I capital adequacy ratio of the bank
as on Sep 06 was 8.74%. The bank has the cushion to raise Tier I hybrid debt of over Rs.40bn
to improve its Tier I ratio.
SBI’s changing business processes through initiatives such as strategic business units,
specialized credit cells for loan processing and greater customer orientation are paying
dividend across the board. Retail advances in the personal segment kept up the tempo of
growth and comprise almost a quarter of its advances, with housing finance constituting over
one half of the its retail advances. The mid-corporate group has been a major success, being the
single largest contributor to the growth in credit. SME advances too have grown significantly
and, perhaps more importantly, their quality improved. Disbursements to agriculture went
up by a massive 83% during the year. The bank is a leading player in infrastructure finance
and syndication of loans. Other growth sectors for the bank are education, healthcare and
tourism.
The bank maintains its drive on the technology front to enhance customer service, increase
productivity, and manage risk better. After having computerized all its branches, it has been
moving swiftly to implement real time on-line banking. Over 4,169 branches, covering more
than 65% of the total business of the bank, have so far been brought under core banking,
in addition to all of the 4,783 branches of associate banks being fully networked on core
banking. With 5,624 ATMs of SBI and more than 3,500 ATMS of associate banks, the
State Bank Group has the largest network of ATMs in the country. Internet banking is now
provided at 4,020 branches with more than 1.07mn individual and 43,000 corporate users.
The bank is in the process of widening its reach both organically and in-organically in both
domestic and international markets. The bank is expected to realize significant operating
efficiencies by leveraging its technology platforms as the bank grows both domestically and
internationally. In addition, the bank is expected to invest more on cutting edge technology to
support its growth initiatives. The bank is expected to continue to achieve a higher return on
its shareholders equity and diversify its business with more innovative products and services.
The bank’s credit card unit is doing well as it caters to diverse customers and contributes
more to the bottomline of the bank. Focus on alternative delivery channels are also expected
to further increase the banks efficiency. The bank is also expected to continue to strengthen
its focus on project advisory services.
Strength/ Opportunities:
The growth for SBI in the coming years is likely to be fueled by the following factors:
• Continued effort to increase low cost deposit would ensure improvement in NIMs and
hence earnings.
• Growing retail & SMEs thrust would lead to higher business growth.
• Strong economic growth would generate higher demand for funds pursuant to higher
corporate demand for credit on account of capacity expansion.
Weakness/ Threats:
The risks that could ensue to SBI in time to come are as under:
• SBI is currently operating at a lowest CAR. Insufficient capital may restrict the growth
prospects of the bank going forward.
• Stiff competition, especially in the retail segment, could impact retail growth of SBI and
hence slowdown in earnings growth.
• Contribution of retail credit to total bank credit stood at 26%. Significant thrust on growing
retail book poses higher credit risk to the bank.
• Slow down in domestic economy would pose a concern over credit off-take, thereby
impacting earnings growth.
While valuing banks we have consistently been using the Dividend Discounting Method
(DDM) in our earlier researches as we believe it is the most suitable method to value banks
because of the nature of banking business. However, we have now included a comparative
valuation method (Price to Book Value) which more accurately reflects the current market
expectations about the stock. In case of DDM the cash flows for the investor includes
potential dividends. Therefore, our valuation of SBI is based on discounting the future stream
of dividends.
The DDM model constructed by us is based on a 4-year forecast of dividends as cash flows
(FY2007-10) for SBI. The cash flow for the forecasted period and the terminal value is then
discounted back at the discount rate, to provide the total net present value (NPV) of the bank.
In our calculations, we have made the following assumptions in order to arrive at the equity
value of SBI.
1. Cost of capital of 13.59% derived using Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
2. Risk free rate of 7.59%, as per the yield on the 10-year bond issued by the Government.
3. Equity risk premium of 6%
4. Beta of 1.0 for last 5 years of SBI.
5. Growth rate of 9% for SBI since the bank has pan-India presence and holds tremendous
growth potential as compared to most of its peers in the Indian banking space.
Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis for different estimated long-run future growth rates and cost of capital
is provided as below. The table provides estimated fair values for SBI shares based on a
range of varying inputs. The shaded area at the center shows the most probable range of
alternatives.
The peer group valuation is performed to compare the intrinsic value of SBI arrived at using
the DDM calculation. The peer group comparison uses Balance Sheet and P&L multiples of
listed and comparable public banks which reflect the profitability and growth potential of a
stock.
We believe that the comparative valuation for the banking sector is more appropriately
reflected through the price to book value (P/BV) multiple. Therefore, the peer group valuation
is done by comparing the P/BV multiples enjoyed by other public banks in the sector. The
book value multiples of a stock are a reflection of various factors such as the expected
profitability, growth potential as perceived by the market, predictability and sustainability of
revenues, quality of earnings and the quality of management among others.
The adjusted P/BV multiple for the major public banks on the Bombay Stock Exchange based
on the financial results for the H1FY06 ranges from 0.94x to 2.93x with the average multiple
being at 1.65x. We believe that, it’s not reasonable to compare SBI with other smaller banks
in the PSU segment. As SBI is the largest player in the Indian banking industry it should
command premium valuations as compared to its peers in the PSU banking space. As such
the multiple for SBI should lie somewhere between PSUs and private banking universe.
Since the major private banks trade at around 5x to 6x of their book, a multiple of 3x to SBI
seems to be appropriate. SBI’s stock valuation comes to Rs.1,463 based on its estimated
adjusted book value for FY2007.
As the book value multiples vary with time and are dependent on several factors such as
market sentiment and other qualitative factors, we have provided 20% weightage to the book
value multiple and 80% to the DDM value calculation.
Sum-of-the-parts methodology
SBI has number of valuable banking and other subsidiaries. We have valued SBI on a sum-
of-the-parts methodology to capture the true value of the associate banks and non-banking
businesses. SBI has seven associate banks and comprised a significant portion of the book
value. Similarly, other businesses of the bank are growing significantly faster than the core
banking business and will make an increasing part of the market value.
Based on our sum-of-parts valuation methodology, we have valued SBI’s share price at an
intrinsic value of Rs 1,209 per share. The stock currently trades at around Rs.1,223, which
implies that the value arrived at using the sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology is slightly
lower than the current market price by 1.13%. At the current market price the stock seems to
be fairly priced. The bank currently trades at 14.5x and 12.1x of its earnings for FY07E and
FY08E respectively and 3.3x and 2.96x of its adjusted book value. The bank holds tremendous
growth potential, going forward. As the economy is on a roll and rising disposable income
with the people, we believe that the bank is a proxy to Indian economic growth. However,
the current market price already captures the future growth potential of the stock. Hence, we
recommend a Hold on the stock with a medium term perspective.
42
(E)
Assets
Cash and Balances with RBI, banks and money at short and call notice 435,666 393,221 445,600 441,431 451,802 418,131 435,863
Gross Investments 1,873,758 2,001,732 1,686,910 1,617,716 1,582,394 1,557,677 1,569,695
-in Government Securities 1,596,404 1,750,188 1,414,481 1,343,757 1,290,007 1,251,307 1,251,307
-in Other approved securities 41,945 37,295 35,352 37,473 38,972 40,141 41,345
-in Shares 9,019 11,173 13,849 13,156 12,630 12,251 12,251
-in Debentures and Bonds 158,750 133,045 101,004 88,884 91,550 94,297 97,126
-in Subsidiaries and joint venture 17,128 17,674 24,033 26,436 29,344 31,398 32,968
Global Research - India
Owners Equity
Equity Capital 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263 5,263
Statutory Reserve 116,051 140,872 170,209 196,830 227,043 262,771 304,206
Share Premium Account 35,106 35,106 35,106 35,106 35,106 35,106 35,106
Investment Fluctuation Reserve 43,712 52,539 - - - - -
Revenue and Other Reserve 1,030 1,030 58,745 64,113 70,401 75,544 82,044
Global Investment House
January 2007
Capital Reserve 1,148 3,029 4,181 4,181 4,181 4,181 4,181
Foreign Currency Translation Reserve 2,880 2,934 2,934 2,934 2,934 2,934
Balance in profit & loss account 3 3 3 4 4 4 5
Total Shareholders Equity 202,313 240,721 276,441 308,430 344,932 385,802 433,738
Total Capital 4,078,153 4,598,829 4,938,696 5,474,976 6,185,364 6,991,465 7,907,578
Operating Statement
State Bank of India
Particulars (Rs mn.) FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 (E) FY08 (E) FY09 (E) Rs Mn FY10 (E)
Interest Income 304,605 324,280 357,949 396,051 464,824 538,769 622,229
Interest Expense 192,742 184,834 201,593 235,266 283,370 330,476 388,727
Net Interest Income 111,863 139,446 156,356 160,785 181,454 208,293 233,502
January 2007
Commision, exchange & brokerage 31,207 35,447 39,962 44,358 49,237 55,146 61,763
Profit on sale of investments 30,735 17,753 5,872 2,427 3,165 3,115 3,139
Profit on exchange transactions 5,030 5,282 9,548 5,251 5,776 6,354 6,989
Other Income 9,153 12,717 18,506 20,356 22,392 24,631 27,094
Global Research - India
Total non-interest income 76,125 71,199 73,887 72,392 80,570 89,246 98,986
Provision for NPAs 36,935 12,040 1,478 12,986 15,908 19,328 22,807
Provision for investment depreciation 4,855 23,384 38,985 27,501 26,901 29,596 29,824
Provision for others 4,491 9,264 3,468 3,641 3,823 4,014 4,215
Total Operating Income 141,707 165,958 186,313 189,048 215,392 244,601 275,641
Operating Expenses
Employee expenses 64,477 69,074 81,230 83,181 90,465 100,286 110,257
Depreciation on banks property 6,983 7,522 7,291 7,362 8,916 8,747 9,447
Other operating expense 20,993 24,146 28,729 30,248 34,463 39,136 44,103
Total Operating Expenses 92,453 100,742 117,251 120,791 133,844 148,169 163,806
43
Cash flow Statement
State Bank of India
Amounts in Rs Mn 2004 2005 2006 2007 (F) 2008 (F) 2009 (E) 2010 (E)
44
Operating
Operating (a) 109,525 122,114 125,027 116,106 133,273 154,102 173,914
PBT 49,713 65,216 68,374 68,257 81,549 96,431 111,836
Depreciation on fixed assets 6,983 7,522 7,291 7,362 8,916 8,747 9,447
Depreciation on investments/ Loans & other provisions 4,875 23,384 40,433 27,501 26,901 29,596 29,824
Deferred Revenue Expenditure W/off 3,545 3,545 - - - - -
Global Research - India
Working Capital (b) (106,977) (149,922) (64,636) (115,480) (110,779) (169,054) (135,782)
Dec/(Inc.) in Investment (135,091) (137,052) 311,563 69,194 35,322 24,717 (12,017)
Dec/(Inc.) in advances (238,770) (456,449) (594,201) (628,357) (730,465) (855,050) (869,764)
(Dec)/Inc. in borrowings 41,277 57,530 114,569 (30,641) 13,789 17,374 18,416
(Dec)/Inc deposits 224,954 484,289 129,985 475,058 598,573 682,373 777,905
(Inc.)/Dec in other assets 10,304 (8,999) (60,377) (22,381) (49,238) (59,085) (70,903)
Investing
Fixed assets (9,555) (8,066) (7,860) (6,754) (7,362) (8,025) (7,775)
Investment in Subsidiaries /JVs (2,561) (854) (3,547) - - - -
Dividend recevied 1,613 3,932 66 - - - -
Total Investing (10,503) (4,988) (11,342) (6,754) (7,362) (8,025) (7,775)
Financing
Proceeds from issue of subordinated debt 9 17 32,830 13,011 9,975 8,778 9,480
Redeemable bonds (17,620) - - - -
Global Investment House
January 2007
Interest on bonds (3,957) (3,957) (4,011) - - - -
Payment of dividends (4,474) (5,752) (6,579) (11,052) (14,736) (19,473) (22,105)
Total Financiang (8,422) (9,693) 4,620 1,959 (4,762) (10,695) (12,624)
Net change in Cash (16,377) (42,488) 53,669 (4,169) 10,371 (33,671) 17,732
Cash & Short-term funds at the beginning of the year 452,043 435,709 391,931 445,600 441,431 451,802 418,131
Actual cash at end 435,666 393,221 445,600 441,431 451,802 418,131 435,863
Global Research - India Global Investment House
Fact Sheet
Rs Mn State Bank of India
Particulars FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 (E) FY08 (E) FY09 (E) FY10 (E)
Profitability
- Return on Average Assets 0.94% 0.99% 0.92% 0.85% 0.91% 0.95% 0.98%
- Return on Average Equity 19.7% 19.4% 17.0% 15.2% 16.2% 17.2% 17.7%
- Net interest income/ Total Op. Income 46.3% 57.1% 60.3% 61.7% 62.6% 63.5% 64.1%
- Non-interest income/ Total Op. Income 53.7% 42.9% 39.7% 38.3% 37.4% 36.5% 35.9%
- Commissions/ Total Op. Income 22.0% 21.4% 21.4% 23.5% 22.9% 22.5% 22.4%
- Dividend payout ratio 15.7% 15.3% 16.7% 24.9% 27.8% 31.1% 30.4%
Margins
- Net income/ revenues 12.1% 13.3% 12.3% 11.2% 11.4% 11.6% 11.7%
- Operating profit / revenues 16.2% 20.1% 19.3% 17.2% 17.5% 17.9% 18.0%
- Interest Expense to Interest Income 63.3% 57.0% 56.3% 59.4% 61.0% 61.3% 62.5%
- Interest Income to Avg Interest Earning Assets 8.21% 7.85% 7.89% 8.00% 8.40% 8.64% 8.84%
- Interest Expense to Avg Interest Bearing Liabilities 5.65% 4.91% 4.93% 5.32% 5.71% 5.87% 6.09%
- Net Spread 2.55% 2.94% 2.96% 2.69% 2.69% 2.76% 2.76%
- Net Interest Margin 2.99% 3.33% 3.40% 3.25% 3.28% 3.34% 3.32%
Efficiency
- Cost to Total Op Income 65.2% 60.7% 62.9% 63.9% 62.1% 60.6% 59.4%
- Staff Expense to Total Op Income 45.5% 41.6% 43.6% 44.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0%
- Administrative Expense to Total Op. Income 14.8% 14.6% 15.4% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0%
- Cost to Average Total Assets 2.36% 2.32% 2.46% 2.32% 2.30% 2.25% 2.20%
Liquidity
- Loans to Interest Earning Assets 41.8% 46.6% 55.9% 62.4% 67.8% 73.1% 76.4%
- Loans to Deposits 50.8% 55.7% 68.9% 75.9% 81.6% 87.0% 90.0%
- Gross Loans to total Deposits 50.8% 55.7% 68.9% 75.9% 81.6% 87.0% 90.0%
- Deposits to Equity 15.7 15.2 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6
- Gross Loans to Assets 39.7% 44.4% 53.0% 59.3% 64.3% 69.1% 72.1%
- Liquid assets to total Assets 10.7% 8.6% 9.0% 8.1% 7.3% 6.0% 5.5%
Credit Quality
- Provisions to Total Op Income 32.7% 26.9% 23.6% 23.3% 21.7% 21.6% 20.6%
- Provisions to Average loans 2.47% 0.66% 0.06% 0.44% 0.44% 0.44% 0.43%
- Non Performing Loans - Gross (Rs mn) 126,672 124,557 103,758 113,628 127,661 144,961 171,054
- Non Performing Loans - Net (Rs mn) 54,417 53,489 49,064 51,709 59,195 66,949 78,806
- Loan Loss Reserve (Rs mn) 64,124 62,195 46,304 51,028 51,660 66,619 79,386
- Gross NPLs to Gross Loans 7.83% 6.01% 3.96% 3.50% 3.21% 3.00% 3.00%
- Net NPLs to Net Loans 3.45% 2.64% 1.88% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 1.40%
- Net NPL’s to (Equity+Loan loss reserve) 23.0% 20.2% 17.1% 15.8% 16.4% 16.3% 16.9%
- Loan Loss Reserve to Gross Loans 4.0% 3.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%
- Loan Loss Reserve to NPL 117.8% 116.3% 94.4% 98.7% 87.3% 99.5% 100.7%
- Loan loss provision to Gross NPL 50.62% 49.93% 44.63% 44.9% 40.5% 46.0% 46.4%
Capital Adequacy
- Equity to Total Assets 5.0% 5.2% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5%
- Equity to Gross Loans 12.5% 11.8% 10.6% 9.5% 8.7% 8.0% 7.6%
Constitution of Total Income
- Net Interest Income to Total Op. Income 52.9% 76.8% 83.1% 78.2% 76.9% 77.3% 76.4%
- Fees & Comm. to Total Op. Income 22.0% 21.4% 21.4% 23.5% 22.9% 22.5% 22.4%
- Investment Income Total Op. Income 18.3% -3.4% -17.8% -13.3% -11.0% -10.8% -9.7%
- FX Income to Total Op. Income 3.6% 3.2% 5.1% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
Operating Performance
- Change in Interest Income -2.0% 6.5% 10.4% 10.6% 17.4% 15.9% 15.5%
- Change in Fees and Commission 4.8% 13.6% 12.7% 11.0% 11.0% 12.0% 12.0%
- Change in Investment Income 81.4% -42.2% -66.9% -58.7% 30.4% -1.6% 0.8%
- Change in Fx Income 8.5% 5.0% 80.8% -45.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
- Change in Other Income -30.6% 39.0% 45.5% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
RATIO’S USED FOR VALUATION
- Shares in Issue (mn) 526 526 526 526 526 526 526
- EPS (Rs) 69.9 81.79 83.73 84.3 100.7 119.1 138.1
- Dividend Declared (%) 110% 125% 140% 210% 280% 370% 420%
- Book Value Per Share (Rs) 384.4 457.4 525.3 586.0 655.4 733.1 824.1
- Adjst. Book Value Per Share (Rs) 281.0 355.8 432.0 487.8 542.9 605.8 674.4
- Market Price Year End (Rs)* 605 657 968 1223 1223 1223 1223
- P/E 8.7 8.0 11.6 14.5 12.1 10.3 8.9
- P/BV 1.57 1.44 1.84 2.09 1.87 1.67 1.48
- P/ABV 4.21 2.98 2.95 3.30 2.96 2.67 2.45
* Market Price for FY07 onwards is price as of Jan 12, 2007