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COTTON WORLD MARKET AND TRADE REPORT

COTTON WORLD MARKET AND TRADE REPORT

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Published by: cottontrade on Aug 27, 2010
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08/27/2010

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United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture
ForeignAgriculturalService
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
Circular SeriesFOP 08 - 10Aug 2010
 
Jump in U.S. Exports Driven by Expanded Demand
United States
024681012
2008/07 2009/10 2010/11
   M   i   l .   B  a   l  e  s
01020304050607080
   C  e  n   t  s   /   L   b .
Beg. Stock Farm Price
United States
5791113151719212325
  2   0   0   5   /   0   6  2   0   0   6   /   0   6  2   0   0   7   /   0   8  2   0   0   8   /   0   9  2   0   0   9   /   1   0  2   0   1   0   /   1   1
   M   i   l   l   i  o  n   B  a   l  e  s
Production Exports
 
For the first time in five years, U.S. exports are expected to expand significantly. In2009/10, global consumption exceeded production by more than 15 percent. This drewdown both foreign and U.S. stocks and as a result prices rose dramatically. U.S. producersresponded in 2010 by increasing acreage by nearly 20 percent. In addition, favorable cropconditions are raising yields, resulting in the largest increase in U.S. production in 73years. In 2010/11 the gap between foreign production and consumption is expected toremain high. This will tighten even further foreign stocks, especially in exportingcountries. With competitors’ stocks tight, the larger U.S. cotton crop will find a readymarket, even at continued higher prices. As a result, U.S. exports are expected to jump by25 percent, and are constrained by the tight domestic stock situation.
Cotton:World Markets and Trade
 
 
Prices
U.S spot prices remained relativelystable on light transaction volumes. TheA-Index for 2009/10 was not quoted inJuly due to the lack of availability of oldcrop cotton.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2010/11
Major Exporters:
 
United States
is raised 700,000 bales to 15.0 million as crop conditions remain favorable.
 
India
is raised 600,000 bales to 6.5 million as supply increases and export restrictions are lifted.
 
Australia
is raised 150,000 bales as demand for early 2011 crop shipments increases.
 
Brazil
is lowered 300,000 to 1.9 million due to the smaller 2009 crop.
 
Turkmenistan
is raised 100,000 bales to 1.05 million.
Major Importers:
 
China
is raised 850,000 bales to 12.5 million based on stronger domestic demand.
 
Brazil
is raised 300,000 to 600,000 due to the smaller 2009 crop.
 
Turkey
is raised 100,000 bales to 3.4 million as stronger domestic demand is expected to carrythrough from the current season.
 
Mexico
is lowered 100,000 bales to 1.4 million.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2009/10Major Exporters:
 
Australia
is raised 275,000 bales as demand for early 2010 crop shipments increases.
 
India
is raised 150,000 bales as export restrictions are lifted.
 
United States
is lowered 250,000 bales to 12.0 million as tight stocks limited late seasonshipments.
Major Importers
:
 
Turkey
is raised 200,000 bales to 4.3 million on stronger domestic demand.
 
China
is increased 290,000 bales to 10.9 million based on stronger domestic demand.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
 August 2010
 
Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month
(1,000 480 lb Bales and 1,000 Ha)
Country Mktg YearAreaHarvestedBeginningStocksProductionImportsExportsUseLossTotal Dom.Cons.EndingStocksAustralia
-27500027500002009/10 -3250001500100-275102010/11
Benin
25000-2500002008/09 000025002502009/10
Brazil
-370000-1020-400002009/10 230000-3003000-37002010/11
Chile
-5-150-150-200002009/10 -5-100-100-100-502010/11
China
-1,2101,5005001,00002900002009/10 -1,8601,5005001,00008500-1,21002010/11
Cote d'Ivoire
25000-2500002008/09 000025002502009/10
Egypt
0-250-252500002009/10
France
0000550002009/10
India
-22500022500002005/06 -53500031000-22502006/07 -1,00500047000-53502007/08 -1,005000000-1,00502008/09 -1,15500015000-1,00502009/10 -75500060001,000-1,1554002010/11
Italy
0-200-200-200002010/11
Mexico
-50000-50-1000002010/11
Pakistan
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDAOffice of Global Analysis
 August 2010

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