CENTCOM Update

Center for a New American Security

GEN David H. Petraeus

11 June 2009
 Agenda

• CENTCOM Strategic Approach

• Three Major Challenge Areas
• Understanding the Surge
• Counterinsurgency Guidelines
• Anaconda Strategy versus Al Qaeda in Iraq
• Security Trends in Iraq
• Afghanistan Security Trends
• Situation in Pakistan
• Full Spectrum Operations
• Battle of Sadr City
• Questions
2
 CENTCOM Strategic Approach

Build Multi-lateral
Partnerships

Defeat Extremist Defeat Extremist

Networks Networks
Prevent
Enable Proliferation
Enable
Partners Partners Build Multi-lateral
Enable Deter Partnerships
Partners Aggression

Counter Weapons
Build Multi-lateral
Smuggling Protect
Partnerships
Enable Trade Routes
Partners

Defeat Extremist
Networks

Counter
Piracy

3
 Three Major Challenge Areas

Iraq:
• Substantial progress since surge...
• Still fragile and reversible...
• Less fragile since provincial elections.

Afghanistan:
• Situation has deteriorated over last two years…
• Must reverse downward trends…
• Requires well-resourced, comprehensive counterinsurgency approach.

Pakistan:
• Significant challenges from extremists…
• Major operations in NWFP and FATA…
• Recognition of need to “clear—hold—build” in order to sustain gains.

4
 Understanding the Surge In Iraq

Signal of commitment

Increase in US forces
Surge =
Growth in Iraqi Security
Forces

Employment of
counterinsurgency
concepts

5
 Counterinsurgency Guidelines
 Secure and serve the people
 Live among the people
 Employ a comprehensive approach
 Generate unity of effort
 Pursue the enemy relentlessly
 Hold cleared areas
 Separate “irreconcilables” from “reconcilables”
 Promote reconciliation
 Conduct conditions-based transitions
 Be first with the truth
 Live our values
 Exercise initiative
 Learn and adapt
6
 Anaconda Strategy versus Al Qaeda in Iraq
Border Ports of Entry Syria Interagency Strategic Information
Improvements Engagement Communications Operations
Work with
Source Countries Internet
Kinetics
AQI Needs Non-kinetics
Counter-Terrorist AQ Senior Leader
Force Ops Weapons Guidance Religious
Engagement
Conventional
Al Money
Force Ops Foreign Ansar Education
al Sunna Qaeda
Iraqi Conventional Fighters in Iraq Command
& Special Force Ops Jobs Programs
Other and Control
Sons of Iraq Safe Groups
Services
Havens
Ideology
Political Popular
Reconciliation Counterinsurgency
Support in Detention Facilities
(Laws/policies)
Tribal
Politics Awakenings Detainee Detainee
Releases Ops
Counter Ethno-Sectarian Armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Pressures Intel, Surveillance
Intel Fusion Intelligence & Recon Platforms
7
 Security Incidents in Iraq

2000 Ramadan
Attacks Against Iraqi Infrastructure and Government Organizations 18 OCT –Ramadan
14 NOV 04
Bombs (IEDs and Mines), Both Found and Exploded Baghdad Security Plan, 5 OCT –16OCT-14NOV04
4 NOV 05
5OCT-4NOV05
1800 Sniper, Ambush, Grenade, and Other Small Arms Attacks 15 February 2007 24 SEP –24SEP-23OCT06
23 OCT 06
Surge of 13 SEP –13SEP-13OCT07
13 OCT 07
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks Offensives 1 SEP – 28 SEP 08
1 SEP-29SEP08

Iraqi elections,
1600 30 January 2005 Basrah and Sadr
City Operations,
Parliamentary 25 March 2008
elections,
1400 Second 15 December 2005
Fallujah
Battle Samarra mosque
of Najaf Constitutional bombing,
1200 referendum, 22 February 2006
15 October 2005
Diyala
Operations
1000 Militia Mother of Two
Uprising and Springs II
First Fallujah 15 Oct 2008
800

600

400

200

0
06-Aug-04

19-Aug-05

03-Aug-07

15-Aug-08
20-Feb-04

25-Jun-04

03-Feb-06

09-Jun-06

16-Feb-07

22-Jun-07

29-Feb-08

05-Jun-09
08-Jul-05

21-Jul-06

04-Jul-08
17-Sep-04

10-Dec-04

30-Sep-05

23-Dec-05

01-Sep-06

14-Sep-07

07-Dec-07

26-Sep-08

19-Dec-08
29-Oct-04

13-Oct-06

26-Oct-07
11-Nov-05

24-Nov-06

07-Nov-08
09-Jan-04

02-Apr-04

21-Jan-05

15-Apr-05

28-Apr-06

05-Jan-07

18-Jan-08

11-Apr-08

30-Jan-09

24-Apr-09
14-May-04

27-May-05

11-May-07

23-May-08
04-Mar-05

17-Mar-06

30-Mar-07

13-Mar-09
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: SIGACTS (CF reports) as of 06-Jun-09. 8
 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jan-06 4000
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07

Sources: SIGACTS III Coalition and Iraqi reports as of 06-Jun-09.

Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Coalition Data

Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Iraqi and Coalition Data

Apr-09
Violent Civilian Deaths

May-09
9
 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07

Source: SIGACTS (CF reports) as of 06-Jun-09.

Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Total

Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Car Bombs

Jan-09
Suicide Vests

Feb-09
Mar-09
Suicide Car Bombs

Apr-09
High Profile Attacks (Explosions)

May-09
10
 Al Qaeda in Iraq and Sunni Insurgents

Winter 2006-2007 Winter 2008-2009

Baghdad Baghdad

11
 Security Incidents in Afghanistan

450
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations Sar-e Poza Prison Break
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded Victory Day 13 June 2008
400 Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks Attack
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks 27 April 08

350 Ramadan
18 OCT – 14 NOV 04 Serena Hotel Attack
5 OCT – 4 NOV 05 Transfer of
14 January 2008
300 24 SEP – 23 OCT 06 Authority to ISAF
13 SEP – 13 OCT 07 31 July 2006
1 SEP – 28 SEP 08
Parliamentary
250
Presidential Elections
Elections 18 September 05
200 October 04

150

100

50

Oct-08
Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07
Nov-07

Nov-08
Nov-04

Nov-05

Nov-06

Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08

Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08

Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Aug-05

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06

Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07

Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Jan-04
Feb-04

Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04

Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05

Jun-05
Jul-05

Apr-08

Apr-09
May-08

Sep-08

May-09
Apr-04

Sep-05

Apr-06
May-06

Sep-06

Apr-07
May-07

Sep-07
May-04

Sep-04

Apr-05
May-05

Mar-08

Mar-09
Mar-06

Mar-07
Mar-04

Mar-05

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09 12
Afghanistan Security Incidents: 2008

13
 Current Disposition
and Planned AdditionalUS
USForces in Afghanistan
Forces

X(-)
RC N
(MAZARI SHARIF)
XX
RC E
(BAGRAM)

II XXXX
X(-) TF Tigre
HQ ISAF/USFOR-A
RC W X
(HERAT) X TF DUKE X
TF SPARTAN
RC C
III (KABUL)
TF WHITE EAGLE
X
TF CURRAHEE
III TF ORUZGAN
X
II
CSTC-A
X TF ZABOL X X
TF HELMAND X 48th 4/82
3
X
4
X TF KANDAHAR

2
1
XX RC S
(KANDAHAR)

1 COMBAT AVIATION BRIGADE (Kandahar, Qalat, Tarin Kowt)

Legend 2 MARINE EXPEDITIONARY BRIGADE (Bastion, Garmsir, Eastern Farah)
X
In Theater at Start
X
of 2009 3 STRYKER BRIGADE COMBAT TEAM (Spin Boldak, Qalat, Shah Wali Kot, Maywand)
Additional Forces
4 AIRBORNE BRIGADE COMBAT TEAM + ADVISORS
14
 Situation in Pakistan

400km
FC

AFGHANISTAN Kalam
Swat

XX
FC FC XX
X Khar Lower Khwazakhela
Mingora
Dir Buner
Kabul FC FC
FC XXX
FC HQ
FC X Peshawar
X
FC Hangu Kohat Islamabad
Thal
XX X
FC
Miram Bannu Kohat
Shah
XX
Dera Ismail Regular Army
Wana Khan FC Frontier Corps
Jandola
FC Wing(s)
Ongoing or Recent
0 100 200 Operations
km

15
 FM 3-0: Full Spectrum Operations

SPECTRUM OF CONFLICT
Increasing Violence
Stable Unstable General
Insurgency
Peace Peace War

OPERATIONAL THEMES

FULL SPECTRUM OPERATIONS

Offense
Offense Offense Offense
Defense

Defense Defense Defense

16
 Strategic
The Battle of Sadr City: March-April 2008
National
EP-3/EPX JSTARS

U2 GLOBAL HAWK

Green Dart UAV

SOF ISR
Operational

2 PREDATORS

AEROSTAT 24/7 CLOSE AEROSTAT

AIR SUPPORT
Tactical

AIR WEAPONS AIR WEAPONS AIR WEAPONS

TEAM TEAM TEAM

SHADOW SHADOW SHADOW

COUNTERFIRE
RADAR
RAVEN
RAVEN RAVEN

SOF GMLRS

ISF ISF
RAID
X
Other Assets: Other Government Agencies, SIGINT Elements,
Deployable Ground Station, Sniper Teams, SOF ISR, Phased
Array Radar Pods on CAS 3/4 ID 17
4th of July Reenlistment Ceremony

18
Questions
Yemen, the Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea

Monthly Acts of Piracy off Somali Coast

40
Successful Hijackings/Acts of Piracy
Unsuccessful Attemps / Other Attacks
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Source: US Navy Central, through 14 May 09

20
 Joint Campaign Plan Design
Reconciliation
LOCALIZED SUSTAINABLE NATIONAL
SECURITY SECURITY Development
Lead
Lead Conditions-based
transitions Partner Conditions-based
transitions Overwatch
Partner
Overwatch Overwatch
Lines of (NLT JUL 08) (NLT JUL 09)
Operation NEAR TERM INTERMEDIATE TERM LONG TERM

POLITICAL
DIPLOMATIC
INFORMATIONAL MEANS

ECONOMIC

SECURITY
SECURITY

POLITICAL
ECONOMIC
Supporting Activities
Engagement for Reconciliation
Capacity Building
Rule of Law Development
Good Governance Promotion
DIPLOMATIC
Strategic Communications
21
 Ethno-Sectarian Violence in Baghdad
DEC 06 APR 07 SEP 07

Density plots depict incidents of ethno-sectarian deaths. MAY 09

2500
Ethno-Sectarian Deaths All of Iraq
Baghdad Security Districts

2000

1500

1000

500 Density
Least Most

0 75% Shi’a 75% Sunni Shi’a, Christian

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08
Sep-06

Dec-06

Sep-07

Dec-07

Sep-08

Dec-08
May-06

Aug-06

May-07

Aug-07

May-08

Aug-08

May-09
Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08
Jun-06

Feb-07
Mar-07

Jun-07

Feb-08
Mar-08

Jun-08

Feb-09
Mar-09
Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08

51% Shi’a / 25% Sunni

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

51% Sunni / 25% Shi’a

Sunni, Shi’a, Christian Mixed - Muslim

Sources: CIOC Trends (CF and Iraqi reports) as of 06-Jun-09; weekly beginning 01-May-06 22
 Jaysh al Mahdi and Shi’a Extremists
Winter 2007-2008 Fall 2008

Baghdad Baghdad

Basra Basra

23
 ISF Combat Battalion Operational Readiness Assessment
Infantry, Armor, Special Operations, National Police, and Emergency
Response Unit Battalions
Over 81% or 149 of 183 Iraqi Army Combat Battalions are
“in the lead” for operations
Baseline 1 Year 2 Years 3 Years Current
89 Total BNs 132 Total BNs 142 Total BNs 185 Total BNs 184 Total BNs

April 2006—43% in the lead

or 52 of 121 Battalions
200

150

100

50

0
Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08
Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08
Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08
Nov-05

Nov-06

Nov-07

Nov-08
Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08
May-06

May-07

May-08

May-09
Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09
Jul-05

Jan-06
Feb-06

Jul-06

Jan-07
Feb-07

Jul-07

Jan-08
Feb-08

Jul-08

Jan-09
Feb-09
ORA 1 ORA 2 ORA 3 ORA 4
ORA = Operational Readiness Assessment

Source: Iraqi Assistance Group. As of 20 APR 09. 24

 Lessons Learned: The Strategic COIN Command
Multi-National Force-Iraq is a strategic-level HQ optimized with an arsenal of COIN tools/subordinate commands:
•An operational command (MNC-I)
•A command to generate, train, and equip indigenous security forces (MNSTC-I)
•A reconstruction command (Gulf Region Division, Army Corps of Engineers)
•A detention command conducting “COIN inside the wire” and helping with the Iraqi corrections system (TF-134)
•A Force Strategic Engagement Cell (FSEC) to facilitate reconciliation with hostile factions and take them off the battlefield,
supported by a Strategic Debriefing Element (SDE) to “map” the enemy
•A robust Pol-Mil and Econ staff to reinforce Embassy partners and help execute the Joint Campaign Plan (CJ9)
•An element to fight the war of information (IO Task Force) and an element to “be first with the truth” (Strat Comms/Media Ops
Center)
•Fusion cells (joint MNF-I/USEMB elements) for Energy, Medical, and other critical areas
•An intel structure to support all of the above (CIOC, DIA Forward Element, etc.)
Coordination
Fully partnered and in coordination with: COMMNF-I
•US Embassy and all its interagency UNAMI US Embassy
elements
•A counterterrorism command (TF-714)
•An embedded JIATF that includes a threat
financing cell MNC-I MNSTC-I GRD JCC-IA TF-134
•The United Nations Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) CT Command
•An element dedicated to commercial (TF-714)
development (“Brinkley Group” – TF COS SJA SCJS JASG CHAP
Business Stabilization Ops)

CJ3 CJ5 CJ9 FSEC CJ1/4/8 CJ2 CJ6

JIATF Strat Comms/

IOTF TFBSO CIOC/DFE/SDE
Threat Financing MOC

Traditional staff augmented for strategic C2 of a COIN campaign as it

evolved in Iraq—Afghanistan HQs will require similar optimization
25
 ISAF/USFOR-A Organized for a COIN Campaign
ISAF USFOR-A
Coordination
Proposed
Sections
UNAMA
Senior COM ISAF CDR USFOR-A US Embassy
Civilian Rep

CSTC-A AEngDist JCC-IA

CT Command
Opnl HQs Strat Comms
(TF-714)

Detention

CJ9 CJ2 CJ3 CJ5 CJ1/4/8

Strat Comms/
J3/5/7 J1 J4 J2 J6
FSEC MOC

JIATF IO TF CIOC
CN JIATF
DIA Fwd Elem
TFBSO
Threat Financing
Strat Debrief

Augmentation of ISAF/USFOR-A HQs would provide Commander,

ISAF/USFOR-A and US Ambassador, Kabul with the additional staff tools
necessary to ensure a comprehensive COIN approach.
26
 0
5
10
15
20
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Apr-06
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded

May-06
Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations

Apr-07
May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
RC-Central Security Incidents

May-09
27
 0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded

Apr-06
May-06
Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations

Apr-07
May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
RC-East Security Incidents

Apr-09
May-09
28
 0
40
80
120
160
200
240
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded

Apr-06
May-06
Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations

Apr-07
May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
RC-South Security Incidents

May-09
29
 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded

Apr-06
May-06
Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations

Apr-07
May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
RC-West Security Incidents

Apr-09
May-09
30
 0
5
10
15
20
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
Jun-05
Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Mortar, Rocket, and Surface to Air Attacks

Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Bombs (IED and Mines), Both Found and Exploded

Apr-06
May-06
Ambush, grenade, RPG, and Other Small Arms Attacks

Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Attacks Against Afghanistan Infrastructure and Government Organizations

Apr-07
May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 3 Jun. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 8-JUN-09
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
RC-North Security Incidents

May-09
31
 Civilian, ANSF and ISAF Casualties
Yearly Totals 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Civilian 125 101 429 534 718 225
ANSF 24 114 335 757 695 340
ISAF 11 29 78 103 249 93

200 Civilian KIA

ANSF KIA
175 ISAF/US KIA

150
125

100
75
50
25
0
Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08
Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Jul-07

Jul-08
Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09
Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09
Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 20 May. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 25-May-09 32
 0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04

Vehicle IED
Yearly Totals

Total
Person Borne
Aug-04 Suicide Vehicle
Sep-04
Oct-04

Vehicle IED
Nov-04
Dec-04

Suicide Vehicle
Jan-05
Person Borne IED
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
May-05
2004

Jun-05
9
4
3

Jul-05
Aug-05
Sep-05
2005

Oct-05
11
13
10

Nov-05
Dec-05
Jan-06
Feb-06
2006

Mar-06
24
79
44

Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
2007

Jul-06
Aug-06
25
74
64

Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
2008

Dec-06
Jan-07
42
95
74

Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
2009

May-07

Sources: Afghanistan SIGACTS. Info Cutoff: 20 May. Retrieved through WEBTAS on 25-May-09
Jun-07
14
22
31

Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Jan-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
High Profile Attacks (Explosions)

Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
33

May-09
Pakistan

34
 Security Incidents in Pakistan

90
Swat Peace
Attacks Against Infrastructure and Government Organizations Agreement
80 IEDs, Mines, Suicide Attacks
Small Arms Engagements, RPG, Grenades PakMil Operations in
Dir, Buner, and Swat
Indirect Fire Attacks, Mortars, Rocket
70

60

50 PakMil Operations
in Bajaur

40

30
May-08

May-09
Aug-08
Sep-08

Nov-08
Dec-08
Mar-08

Feb-09
Mar-09
20
Jun-08

Jan-09
Apr-08

Apr-09
Oct-08
Jul-08

10

Source: WebTAS Pakistan SIGACTS as of 03 June 09

35
 Situation in Pakistan

XX
400km XX 19 HQ
FC x3 37 HQ X
X 28
AFGHANISTAN 88
X Kalam54
X
Swat 107 X
X X 1AK
26 313
FC x7 FC x4
FC x2
Khwazakhela
Khar Lower Mingora
Dir Buner
Kabul FC x5 FC x2

XX Peshawar
FC x9 XXX
7 HQ FC x6 X
X 11 HQ
73 X
22
FC x1 102 Islamabad
FC x11 Hangu Kohat
Thal FC x1
X X
X 327 23
27 X
6 Miram Bannu Kohat
Shah
X
116 X
Dera Ismail Regular Army
117
Wana XX Jandola Khan FC Frontier Corps
Wing(s)
9 HQ Ongoing or Recent
FC x8 0 100 200 Operations
km

36
 Counterinsurgency Campaign Design
Starting Conditions End State

Insurgent
Insurgent Information Operations
Neutral
Combat Operations
or
Attitude of Populace

Passive
Neutral
Civil Security Operations
or
Passive
Essential Services
Support
Government
Governance
Support
Government
Economic Development

Whole of Government Approach: An effective counterinsurgency campaign requires

a comprehensive and fully integrated use of non-military and military institutions to
defeat the insurgency and address its root causes.
37
The Engine of Change

GEN David H. Petraeus

 Engine of Change

Knowledge Management

Collective
Doctrine Leader Training
(Theory) Development (Application)
(Understanding)

Combat/
Lessons Contingency
Learned Operations
(Feedback)

A Learning Organization
(Leaders and Troopers who “get it”)
39
39
 Changes in Doctrine

Doctrine
(Theory)

Pre-9/11: Today:
Updated
Combat Operations Doctrine Full Spectrum Operations

2006 2006 2006 2007 2008

Army Leadership Human Intelligence Counterinsurgency Training the Full Spectrum
“Modern Collector Operations (with Force Operations
Pentathlete” Operations Marine Corps)
40
40
 Changes in Leader Development

Leader
Development
(Understanding)

Pre-9/11: Leader
Now:
Combat Operations Development Full Spectrum Operations
Lecture-based Initiatives Seminar-based
“What to think” “How to think”
600
500
400

Arabic 300
200

100
Pashto 0
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
ACS Slots for Operational Career Field
Counterinsurgency Regional language Contemporary Greater civil schooling
focused curricula and culture training reading lists opportunities
To name a few…
41
41
 Changes in Collective Training

Collective
Training
(Application)

Pre-9/11: Today:
Short, violent force-on Training Continuous, complex
force engagements Center counterinsurgency
Modifications operations

Looks like Iraq or Hundreds of native- Improvised Explosive Civil affairs essential…
Afghanistan speaking, role players Devices, car bombs, etc. and all do it

42
42
 Changes in Lessons Learned

Lessons
Learned
(Feedback)

Pre-9/11: Today:
Predominantly hard-copy Since 2001 Electronic products, virtual
publications communities, and websites

• Website averaging 19K “sessions” & 20K Combat and

documents downloaded per month Counterinsurgency
Operations
• 65 Collection & Analysis Teams
Full Spectrum Sustainment
deployed since 9/11
products Operations
• 641 publications (online and print) Information
Operations
• 1,180 requests for information answered in April
(broke January’s record of 1,015) Advisor
Responsibilities

43
43
 Changes in Knowledge Management

Knowledge Management

Pre-9/11: Today:
Knowledge
“Band of Bloggers” Management Funded virtual
Tools
communities

Battle Command Language software Simulations with the Command Post

Knowledge System and tools “Human Dimension” of the Future
44
44
 Changes in Equipping the Force
New
Equipment
and
Technology
(Tools)

Rapidly
Fielding New
Pre-9/11 Equipment Today:
Latest equipment & technology,
designed for this environment

New Tools for Improved IED Defeat Vehicles With

Intelligence Fusion Weapons Systems Technology Better Protection
45
45