Asia Pacific Equity Research

25 August 2010

Overweight
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA.JK, PTBA IJ
Price: Rp16,350
Minimal risk to the share price from coal prices, and
▼ Price Target: Rp22,000
favorable risk-reward profile Previous: Rp23,000

• We stay OW but reduce our PT to Rp22,000: As the 1H10 result was Indonesia
slightly below our expectation, we revisit our model on PTBA, and reduce Mining
our FY10 and FY11 net income estimates by 1.4% and 5.3% respectively. AC
Stevanus Juanda
This results in us lowering our newly extended June-11 PT from Rp23,000 (62-21) 5291 8574
to Rp22,000. We continue to like PTBA on the back of potential stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com
construction of Transpacific railway in 1Q11 or Kalimantan reserve PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
acquisitions that could multiply volume going forward.
Price Performance
• It is not about coal prices anymore: Before receiving approval from the
Dept of Transportation, PTBA’s relative share price performance had a high 18,000

correlation with coal prices, with an R-Square of 0.8788. Since receiving Rp 15,000
the approval, the correlation has declined significantly to 0.033. This
12,000
suggests that project progress has and will play a far more important role in
Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10
the future relative performance of the share price, while movements in coal
PTBA.JK share price (Rp)
prices are likely to be of lesser importance. JCI (rebased)

• Favorable risk-reward profile: Admittedly, we believe the consensus YTD 1m 3m 12m

FY10 earnings estimate of Rp2,474B might be too high and has downward Abs -8.1% -0.9% 1.2% 21.1%
revision risk. However, the revision is unlikely to cause the share price to be Rel -29.0% -3.9% -18.2% -10.0%
lower than Rp15,000 or so, in our view, given the historical support level.
Our PT of Rp22,000 implies 34.5% upside, while Rp15,000 would imply a
mild 8.0% downside. Hence, we believe potential upside outweighs the
potential downside. We recommend accumulating the stock.
• Model revisited: We revisit our model and make adjustments to it: (1)
Incorporate 1H10 results. (2) Lower FY10E and FY11E ASP by 0.8% and
4.6% respectively as the selling price of domestic contracts came in slightly
less than expected. (4) Raise FY10E and FY11E costs by 0.6% and 0.1% to
reflect the 1H10E numbers. (5) Extend the time horizon of our PT from Dec-
10 to Jun-11 and trim our PT to Rp22,000. The adjustments result in us
lowering our FY10E and FY11E earnings estimates by 1.4% and 5.3%
respectively.

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (Reuters: PTBA.JK, Bloomberg: PTBA IJ)

Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY08A FY09A FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E
Revenue 7,216 8,948 8,724 12,505 14,800 20,049 Shares O/S (mn) 2,304
Net Profit 1,708 2,728 1,964 2,922 3,152 3,649 Market Cap (Rp bn) 37,673
EPS (Rp) 740.98 1,183.53 852.33 1,267.74 1,367.40 1,583.35 Market Cap ($ mn) 4,200
DPS (Rp) 165 437 698 503 748 807 Price (Rp) 16,350
Revenue growth (%) 75.0% 24.0% -2.5% 43.3% 18.4% 35.5% Date Of Price 24 Aug 10
EPS growth (%) 135.2% 59.7% -28.0% 48.7% 7.9% 15.8% Free float (%) 35.0%
ROCE 74.7% 73.2% 40.1% 48.7% 39.4% 40.5% 3-mth trading value (Rp mn) 82,361.02
ROE 51.2% 56.2% 33.4% 42.1% 37.2% 36.8% 3-mth trading value ($ mn) 9.18
P/E 22.1 13.8 19.2 12.9 12.0 10.3 3-mth trading volume (bn) 0.00
P/BV 9.4 6.6 6.2 4.8 3.8 3.2 JCI 3,115
EV/EBITDA 13.5 9.1 13.7 8.1 7.2 6.1 Exchange Rate 8,970
Dividend Yield 1.0% 2.7% 4.3% 3.1% 4.6% 4.9% Fiscal Year End Dec
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.

See page 9 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Company Description P&L sensitivity metrics EBIT EPS

FY11E impact (%) impact (%)
PTBA is a state-owned company in which the Coal Price Assumption (US$95/ton)
Government of Indonesia owns 65% of the company. Impact of each 10% 22.2% 24.8%
The company’s main coal mine is in Tanjung Enim, Volume assumption (15.5MM tons)
South Sumatra. In addition to Tanjung Enim, PTBA
Impact of each 10% 16.2% 17.9%
also owns several mines in South Sumatra: Ombilin
and Cerenti mines, plus several other mines in Cost assumption (US$47.4/ton)
Kalimantan. In total, PTBA minable reserves stand at Impact of each 10% -10.7% -12.0%
2B tons. Currently PTBA is embarking on several Debt/equity assumption (0.55x)
projects that could increase its annual production Impact of each 10% 0.0% -0.4%
volume from 12.8MM tons in FY08 to 55MM tons Average IDR/USD assumption
by FY15E. Those projects are: (US$9,000/US$1)
1. Expansion of Tanjung Enim - Kertapati railways. Impact of each 10% 2.5% 1.6%
2. Banjarsari mine mouth power plant project. (2 x
100MW) Source: J.P. Morgan estimates
3. Bangko Tengah mine mouth power plant project. (4 x
600MW)
4. Mine acquisition in Kalimantan Price target and valuation analysis
5. South Sumatra - Lampung railway projects. Our price target is derived using the SOTP method. The SOTP
Revenue segment chart incorporates a DCF value for each project on which PTBA is
embarking. The three-year average (FY10E-FY12E) coal price
used is US$95 per ton and, due to calorific value difference,
PTBA’s average overall ASP (excluding brisket) is forecast to
be US$74.4 per ton. The total cost per ton is forecast to average
US$47.6 per ton. The DCF method is derived using a risk-free
rate of 9.5%, equity risk premium of 5.5% and terminal growth
rate of 5.5%. We do not incorporate any value for PTBA’s
reserves.

Risk free rate: 9.5%

Market risk premium: 5.5%
Beta: 1.63
Debt/equity: 27.5%
Cost of debt: 10.0%
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates Terminal “g”: 5.5%

EPS: J.P. Morgan vs. consensus Our PT of Rp22,000 represents 25.8x FY10E P/E and 17.4x FY11E
P/E. Key risks to our view and PT include execution risk, and project
J. P. Morgan Consensus
delays.
FY10E 852 1,060
FY11E 1,268 1,467
FY12E 1,367 1,626
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates

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Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Project progress, not coal prices

It used to be about coal prices, but no longer
A potential decline in coal price in 3Q10 could create ST pressure on Indonesia coal
companies, but unlikely on PTBA, for the following reasons:
Since Transpacific project was Little correlation to coal price since Transpacific approval: Prior to Oct- 09,
approved, there has been little when the approval for Transpacific was given, PTBA’s share price movement was
correlation to coal price
movements
correlated closely to movements in coal prices. This is evidenced by the R-Square of
0.8788 between PTBA’s relative share price performance and coal prices from Jan-
05 to Oct-09. Since Oct-09, the relative performance of PTBA’s share price has
deviated from movements in coal prices. From Oct-09 to today, the relative
performance of PTBA’s share price has shown an R-Square of 0.033, which suggests
that project progress is a more important factor to monitor in relation to movements
in PTBA’s share price.
Figure 1: PTBA - Share price relative performance vs. coal price prior Figure 2: PTBA - Share price relative performance relative to coal
Dept of Transportation approval price after Dept of Transportation approval
x x
3.00
y = 1E-06x 2 + 0.0025x - 0.1211 0.60
y = -0.0002x 2 + 0.0005x + 0.3013
2.50 R2 = 0.8788
R2 = 0.033
0.50
2.00
0.40
1.50
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.50
0.10
-
(100.0 - 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 900.0 -
)(0.50) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Share price unlikely to come Share price has re-rated and is likely to hold: Further share price analysis
down, in our view indicates that PTBA’s share price has re-rated since Jan-09 and the share price level
has been maintained at above Rp15,000 YTD10. Considering the potential positive
outlook for volume due to expansion in PT Kereta Api, Transpacific railway and
reserves acquisitions, we believe the share price will be maintained.

3
Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Figure 3: PTBA - Forward P/E band chart Figure 4: PTBA - Forward EV/EBITDA band chart
x x

PTBA Forward PE band chart PTBA EV/EBITDA Band Chart

25,000.0 30,000.0

20,000.0 25,000.0

20,000.0
15,000.0
15,000.0
10,000.0
10,000.0
5,000.0
5,000.0
0.0 -
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
2.7x (-2stdev ) 6.3x (-1stdev ) 9.9x (Av e)
2.4x (-2stdev) 5.0x (-1stdev) 7.5x (Ave)
13.4x (+1stdev ) 17.0x (+2stdev ) PTBA
10.1x (+1stdev) 12.7x (+2stdev) PTBA

Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan's estimates Source: Bloomberg and J.P Morgan's estimates

PTBA valuation is reasonable Valuation not too expensive: From the forward P/E band chart and forward
EV/EBITDA band charts, the current share price level indicates a reasonable
valuation. At 12.9x FY11E P/E, PTBA does not appear expensive relative to the
average of the industry at 12.7x. At 7.9x FY11E EV/EBITDA, it is also reasonably
priced relative to the industry multiple of 7.6x. In summary, the current valuation
looks reasonably attractive based on the potential long-term upside of the stock.
Table 1: PTBA - Comparative valuation of Indonesia's coal companies
Rp, %, x
Clsg Mkt Cap 3M Daily PE (X) EV/EBITDA (X) Div Yield (%)
Ticker Price (LC) (US$MM) TO (US$MM) FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E FY10E FY11E FY12E
BUMI - net Tata's 1,640 3,710 32.7 19.6 10.2 11.4 8.8 5.7 5.6 1.5 1.5 3.0
PTBA 16,350 3,898 6.0 19.2 12.9 12.0 14.0 7.9 7.0 4.3 3.1 4.6
ITMG 40,300 5,093 3.2 14.3 11.5 8.8 9.7 8.0 6.3 4.6 4.2 5.2
ADRO 2,050 7,334 14.2 21.2 16.4 15.4 9.4 7.6 7.6 2.7 1.9 2.4
BYAN* 8,700 3,243 0.8 35.3 16.0 15.1 18.2 8.9 9.4 1.2 4.4 5.7
INDY* 3,225 1,878 4.3 13.3 9.2 8.5 46.2 37.2 34.2 1.7 2.8 3.8
Average 20.5 12.7 11.8 12.0 7.6 7.2 2.7 3.0 4.1
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: Closing prices are as of 24 August 2010.

The risk of consensus earnings downside likely to be mild

We believe the short-term risk lies in the possibility that reported profitability might
miss the quarterly consensus earnings forecasts. The reason is that the achieved 1H10
net income of Rp908B is trailing the current full year net income forecast of
Rp2,404B. In addition, the historical data indicates that when consensus adjusted its
earnings downwards, the stock tends to underperform.

Table 2: PTBA - Share price performance relative to reported earnings and consensus' movement in earnings
Rp B, %
Actual FY consensus at the time % of FY 3 years 3 M relative performance Q/Q change in
Quarter Rp B of reporting (Rp B) consensus historical average Difference Relative post reporting consensus forecast
Q210 535 2,474 21.6% 21.2% 0.4% In-line -3.2% -8.6%
Q110 373 2,707 13.8% 26.0% -12.2% Below -12.8% -6.7%
4Q09 500 2,900 17.2% 22.8% -5.5% Below -1.0% -3.3%
3Q09 636 2,999 21.2% 30.0% -8.8% Below 3.0% 4.7%
2Q09 672 2,864 23.5% 21.2% 2.2% In-line 10.9% 8.2%
1Q09 921 2,647 34.8% 26.0% 8.8% Above 8.8% 35.9%
4Q08 386 1,948 19.8% 22.8% -3.0% In-line 30.8%
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan estimates.

4
Stevanus Juanda
(62-21) 5291 8574
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com
We estimate 34.5% upside and
only 8.0% downside potential
Asia Pacific Equity Research
25 August 2010
Although consensus forecasts could have some downside, we view that project
development and news flows provide absolute downside support at Rp15,000 or so.
With that downside risk of only 8%, at valuations on par with the sector (12.9x) - the
48% EPS growth in 2011 makes for significant upside over the next 12 months,
which could get further catalyzed if the company shows signs of projects reaching
construction stage. At the current price of Rp16,350, there is a healthy risk-reward –
we estimate Rp22,000 vs. Rp15,000 for investors with 34.5% upside potential and
only 8.0% downside risk. Hence, we recommend accumulating on any downgrade-
related underperformance.
Remain positive; long-term investors should accumulate
With these findings, we remain positive on PTBA and believe that project progress is
more important than movements in coal price on PTBA. If there is any weakness in
the share price, we believe long-term investors should consider establishing positions
in this stock.
5
Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Model revisited
Model adjusted. Maintain OW but Post the 1H10 results, we revisit our model and incorporate the following
reduce PT from Rp23,000 to adjustments:
Rp22,000

(1) Incorporate 1H10 results into the model.

(2) Lower FY10E and FY11E ASP by 0.8% and 4.6% respectively as the domestic
contracts come in slightly less than expected.
(3) Raise FY10E and FY11E costs by 0.6% and 0.1% to reflect the 1H10E numbers.
(4) Push out the Rp4 trillion debt scheduled from FY10E to FY11E.
(5) Extend the time horizon of our PT from Dec-10 to June-11.
Table 3: PTBA - New and original assumptions
MM tons, US$/ton
FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY15E FY15E FY15E FY15E
Coal Price (US$/ton) 95.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 88.03 96.84 106.52 117.17 128.89 141.78
Volume (MM tons) 13.88 17.40 20.70 24.37 39.85 55.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 63.00
ASP (US$/ton) 70.06 77.18 75.85 73.72 64.05 55.00 60.50 66.55 75.67 77.09
Cost (US$/ton) 47.51 47.43 47.94 46.54 46.99 38.51 40.94 43.77 47.86 49.14
FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Coal Price (US$/ton) 2,019.00 95.00 95.00 95.00 88.03 96.84 106.52 117.17 128.89 141.78
Volume (MM tons) 13.88 17.40 20.70 24.37 39.85 55.00 64.00 64.00 64.00 63.00
ASP (US$/ton) 70.59 80.88 79.43 77.16 67.01 57.52 63.27 69.60 79.14 80.59
Cost (US$/ton) 47.24 47.36 48.31 46.76 46.86 38.44 41.06 43.92 48.02 49.44
FY10E FY11E FY12E FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E
Coal Price (US$/ton) -95.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Volume (MM tons) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ASP (US$/ton) -0.8% -4.6% -4.5% -4.5% -4.4% -4.4% -4.4% -4.4% -4.4% -4.4%
Cost (US$/ton) 0.6% 0.1% -0.8% -0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -0.3% -0.3% -0.3% -0.6%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

The adjustments resulted in us lowering our FY10E and FY11E by 1.4% and 5.3%
respectively.

Table 4: PTBA - New and original Income Statement

Rp B, %
New Original Difference (%)
2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Sales 8,724 12,505 14,800 9,082 13,084 15,467 -3.9% -4.4% -4.3%
Operating Profit 2,358 4,358 4,910 2,700 4,837 5,491 -12.7% -9.9% -10.6%
Net Income 1,964 2,922 3,152 1,992 3,086 3,505 -1.4% -5.3% -10.1%
EPS 852 1,268 1,367 864 1,339 1,521 -1.4% -5.3% -10.1%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

These resulted in us lowering our June-11 PT from Rp23,000 to Rp22,000.

6
Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Figure 5: PTBA - SOTP valuation

US$MM
SOTP US$ MM In RpB JPM Comments SOTP without discount In RpB
NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B) 2,977 26,797 NPV of existing coal operation (Rp B) 26,797
Banko Tengah PP 344 3,094 Assign 70% discount as the realization is stalled Banko Tengah PP 15,468
Banjarsari PP 26 231 Assign 70% discount as the realization is stalled Banjarsari PP 1,153
Transpacific railways 383 3,444 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved Transpacific railways 6,888
Integrated transportation 211 1,895 Integrated transportation 1,895
Sale of coal to power plants 554 4,984 Assign 70% discount as the realization is stalled Sale of coal to power plants 24,921
Transpacific coal sale 1,192 10,725 Assign 15% discount as the realization has improved Transpacific coal sale 21,450
Kalimantan Mines 308 2,774 Assign 50% discount to account for delay Kalimantan Mines 3,963
Total NPV (Rp in billion) 5,994 53,943 Total NPV (Rp in billion) 102,534
Debt (2,000) Debt (2,000)
Cash 4,833 Cash 4,833
20% discount to potential prolonged delay (603) (5,429)
Equity value per share (Rp) 22,279 Equity value per share (Rp) 45,717
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.

7
Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam: Summary of Financials

Income Statement Cash flow statement
Rp in billions, year end Dec FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Revenues 7,216 8,948 8,724 12,505 14,800 EBIT 2,494 3,548 2,358 4,358 4,910
% change Y/Y 75.0% 24.0% (2.5%) 43.3% 18.4% Depr. & amortization 74 80 78 113 146
EBITDA 2,568 3,628 2,436 4,470 5,056 Change in working capital -442 -139 254 -272 -52
% change Y/Y 165.0% 41.3% -32.9% 83.5% 13.1% Taxes -473 -1033 -616 -926 -961
EBIT 2,494 3,548 2,358 4,358 4,910 Cash flow from operations 1,610 2,736 2,389 3,025 3,438
% change Y/Y 178.0% 42.3% NM 84.8% 12.7%
EBIT Margin 34.6% 39.7% 27.0% 34.8% 33.2% Capex -429 -218 -855 -677 -707
Net Interest 108 202 313 138 -21 Disposal/(purchase) - - - - -
Earnings before tax 2,552 3,762 2,651 3,968 4,408 Net Interest 108 202 313 138 -21
% change Y/Y 152.8% 47.4% -29.5% 49.7% 11.1% Other 0 0 4 3 2
Tax -837 -1,033 -663 -992 -1,102 Free cash flow 1,180 2,518 1,533 2,348 2,731
as % of EBT 32.8% 27.5% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Net income (reported) 1,708 2,728 1,964 2,922 3,152 Equity raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 0 0
% change Y/Y 135.2% 59.7% -28.0% 48.7% 7.9% Debt raised/(repaid) 0 0 0 4,000 0
Shares outstanding 2,305 2,305 2,305 2,305 2,305 Other 0 0 -64 -46 -69
EPS (reported) 740.98 1,183.53 852.33 1,267.74 1,367.40 Dividends paid -380 -1,007 -1,609 -1,159 -1,724
% change Y/Y 135.2% 59.7% (28.0%) 48.7% 7.9% Beginning cash 2,223 3,042 4,709 4,242 5,425
Ending cash 3,042 4,709 4,242 5,425 5,408
DPS 165 437 698 503 748

Balance sheet Ratio Analysis

Rp in billions, year end Dec FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E Rp in billions, year end Dec FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E FY12E

Cash and cash equivalents 3,042 4,709 4,242 5,425 5,408 EBITDA margin 35.6% 40.6% 27.9% 35.7% 34.2%
Accounts receivable 1,377 1,491 1,348 1,758 1,996 Operating margin 34.6% 39.7% 27.0% 34.8% 33.2%
Inventories 420 410 449 528 618 Net margin 23.7% 30.5% 22.5% 23.4% 21.3%
Others 112 173 156 204 231
Current assets 4,950 6,783 6,195 7,916 8,254
Sales per share growth 75.0% 24.0% (2.5%) 43.3% 18.4%
LT investments 454 521 890 4,892 5,894 Sales growth 75.0% 24.0% (2.5%) 43.3% 18.4%
Net fixed assets 384 372 1,299 1,863 2,423 Net profit growth 135.2% 59.7% -28.0% 48.7% 7.9%
Total Assets 6,107 8,079 8,827 15,158 17,107 EPS growth 135.2% 59.7% (28.0%) 48.7% 7.9%

Liabilities Interest coverage (x) - - - - 242.71

Short-term loans 0 0 0 0 0
Payables 69 58 64 75 88 Net debt to equity -76.1% -82.6% -69.9% -18.2% -15.4%
Others 1,284 1,323 1,450 1,704 1,995 Sales/assets 1.43 1.26 1.03 1.04 0.92
Total current liabilities 1,353 1,381 1,514 1,779 2,082 Assets/equity 1.53 1.93 2.19 2.04 2.10
Long-term debt 0 0 0 4,000 4,000 ROE 51.2% 56.2% 33.4% 42.1% 37.2%
Other liabilities 676 912 1,028 1,216 1,425 ROCE 74.7% 73.2% 40.1% 48.7% 39.4%
Total Liabilities 2,029 2,293 2,542 6,995 7,508
Shareholders' equity 3,998 5,701 6,065 7,817 9,126
BVPS 1,735 2,474 2,631 3,392 4,282
Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.

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Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

Analyst Certification:
The research analyst(s) denoted by an “AC” on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research analysts are primarily
responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an “AC” on the cover or within the document individually certifies, with
respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this report
accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of the research
analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the
research analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA.JK) Price Chart

Date Rating Share Price Price Target

30,894 N Rp7,000 OW Rp12,000
OW Rp22,200 OW Rp23,000
OW Rp23,000 (Rp) (Rp)
10-Jan-07 N 3400 3400
25,745 N Rp6,500 N Rp11,500
OW Rp18,500 OW Rp9,700OW Rp19,300
OW Rp24,200
OW Rp26,000 15-May-07 N 4375 4500
21-Jun-07 N 7050 6500
20,596 N Rp3,400
N Rp4,500 N Rp9,000 OW Rp16,000 OW Rp9,300
OW Rp17,000
OW Rp22,500
OW Rp24,000
09-Jul-07 N 6850 7000
Price(Rp) 31-Oct-07 N 9050 9000
15,447
30-Jan-08 N 11750 11500
13-Mar-08 OW 11000 12000
10,298
28-May-08 OW 12900 16000
12-Jun-08 OW 14800 18500
5,149
02-Jul-08 OW 17000 22200
11-Jan-09 OW 7900 9300
0
Oct Jul Apr Jan Oct Jul
05-Feb-09 OW 7400 9700
06 07 08 09 09 10 09-Jun-09 OW 13550 17000
28-Jul-09 OW 12700 19300
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
This chart shows J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of this stock; the current analyst may or may not have covered it 22-Nov-09 OW 15550 22500
over the entire period.
16-Dec-09 OW 17300 24200
J.P. Morgan ratings: OW = Overweight, N = Neutral, UW = Underweight.
02-Feb-10 OW 16500 23000
26-Mar-10 OW 17100 24000
27-Apr-10 OW 18950 26000
21-May-10 OW 16550 23000

Explanation of Equity Research Ratings and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:

J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] J.P. Morgan Cazenove’s UK Small/Mid-Cap dedicated research
analysts use the same rating categories; however, each stock’s expected total return is compared to the expected total return of the FTSE
All Share Index, not to those analysts’ coverage universe. A list of these analysts is available on request. The analyst or analyst’s team’s
coverage universe is the sector and/or country shown on the cover of each publication. See below for the specific stocks in the certifying
analyst(s) coverage universe.

Coverage Universe: Stevanus Juanda: Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), Bumi Resources (BUMI.JK), Indofood (INDF.JK),
Kalbe Farma (KLBF.JK), Medco Energi (MEDC.JK), PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM.JK), PT Indo Tambangraya Megah
(ITMG.JK), PT International Nickel Indonesia (INCO.JK), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS.JK), Tambang Batubara Bukit
Asam (PTBA.JK), Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR.JK)

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Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of June 30, 2010

Overweight Neutral Underweight
(buy) (hold) (sell)
JPM Global Equity Research Coverage 46% 42% 12%
IB clients* 49% 46% 31%
JPMSI Equity Research Coverage 44% 48% 9%
IB clients* 68% 61% 53%
*Percentage of investment banking clients in each rating category.
For purposes only of NASD/NYSE ratings distribution rules, our Overweight rating falls into a buy rating category; our Neutral rating falls into a hold
rating category; and our Underweight rating falls into a sell rating category.

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the front of this note or your J.P. Morgan representative.

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Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

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Copyright 2010 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or
redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.

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Stevanus Juanda Asia Pacific Equity Research
(62-21) 5291 8574 25 August 2010
stevanus.x.juanda@jpmorgan.com

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